dendrite Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is colder and that's a nice upper level bowling ball over WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It actually keeps snow going in NNE from the 700mb deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS is a tad further north and drier with part 1 through hr 84 anyways. Not that QPF matters too much right now. Sheared out and kind of warm...that woudl be ugly...but this is probably going to look slightly different every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:09 PM, dendrite said: GFS is colder and that's a nice upper level bowling ball over WI. Well it was initially colder, but looks like thicknesses climb quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Gotta wonder about significant icing in the elevated terrain of the NY Southern Tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Sheared out and kind of warm...that woudl be ugly...but this is probably going to look slightly different every 6 hours. Yeah it probably will change, but the sheared out mess is something to think about. Euro and GFS sort of handle the QPF from part 1 in different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:08 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS is a tad further north and drier with part 1 through hr 84 anyways. Not that QPF matters too much right now. Yeah, it's like 10-20m shift N on the 850 line. That trough out west has trended further W since 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS appears to deliver a mixed bag system 1 and maybe a bigger dump part 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 And we're analyzing the GFS because why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Nice weenie run up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Well, somebody could see it snow for 48 hours. 12z says C/N NE. Light snow to begin and then we wait for the secondary to develop for the finale. That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like Part 2 is more for NNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:12 PM, CT Blizz said: And we're analyzing the GFS because why? Just talking about what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Gfs toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I can live with the gfs........out to stack wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:09 PM, CoastalWx said: It actually keeps snow going in NNE from the 700mb deformation area. OK run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ehh...I'll wait for the EURO. I'm not getting my hopes up anyway. Too much burn this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That's a sloppy GFS solution...there really has not be a discernable trend though on this model...I mean its cooled since those huge torch solutions, but its been changing a bit from run to run on small scale factors. That is to be expected though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Considering every other piece of guidance is colder and south than the GFS nonsense..everyone should be feeling very confident in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:15 PM, dendrite said: OK run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:13 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Well, somebody could see it snow for 48 hours. 12z says C/N NE. Light snow to begin and then we wait for the secondary to develop for the finale. That would be nice. Two days of SN- for the Ct Valley with no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's a sloppy GFS solution...there really has not be a discernable trend though on this model...I mean its cooled since those huge torch solutions, but its been changing a bit from run to run on small scale factors. That is to be expected though. It still has the overall big picture, but a little change up north and that will have a ripple effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:51 PM, Ginx said: Adam what's up bro?, totally different setup but yea it's always juicy, sh it that's a 6-10 for us and still dumping, soundings are bone cold for us, unstable. Verbatim it would be pounding snow 12/13/07 style. Sup man! DT is howling on Facebook 8-16" w/ NYC snow to rain (not sure if that is a good or bad thing). Wundermap has really helped me understand what is going on a lot more, it's a great tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:17 PM, CT Blizz said: Considering every other piece of guidance is colder and south than the GFS nonsense..everyone should be feeling very confident in SNE. Yes it has definitely been the furthest north of all guidance on afairly consistent basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:17 PM, CT Blizz said: Considering every other piece of guidance is colder and south than the GFS nonsense..everyone should be feeling very confident in SNE. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Meh, its close to something better I guess. N of route 2 and esp into NH/VT gets slammed. 12+ in some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Well sometimes after 3-4 runs showing one trend, you'll have the opposite happen for a run or two. Just how it goes sometimes....it's unusual to see a constant trend not stop or fluctuate. I don't really have an issue right now with the GFS. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Well sometimes after 3-4 runs showing one trend, you'll have the opposite happen for a run or two. Just how it goes sometimes....it's unusual to see a constant trend not stop or fluctuate. I don't really have an issue right now with the GFS. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does. Compromise would be pretty sweet right now...have a bit more robust SWFE but a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Well sometimes after 3-4 runs showing one trend, you'll have the opposite happen for a run or two. Just how it goes sometimes....it's unusual to see a constant trend not stop or fluctuate. I don't really have an issue right now with the GFS. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does. The changes were very subtle and to see that at day 4 is pretty amazing. Overall consistent modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes it has definitely been the furthest north of all guidance on afairly consistent basis. If it had even one model that supported it, then you'd have to at least give it a little consideration..but when it's consistently north and warm..it means it's consistently wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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