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Help us Obi-One-Marchobi... You're our only hope 3/1 Fantasy


HoarfrostHubb

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BOX AFD says "meh"

00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS

WERE FAIRLY WARM AND TOO FAR N CONSIDERING LARGER SCALE PATTERN.

ECMWF HAS BEEN PREFERRED MODEL AND IF ANYTHING WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY

FARTHER S FROM ITS 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE IN LINE

WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH STRING OUT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEMS TO OUR S WED AND THU...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD BRING ROUNDS OF

AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO SOUTHERN

STREAM MOISTURE AND LIFT IN 850-700 MB LAYER. FACT THAT SYSTEMS ARE

STRUNG OUT AND RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO LACK OF PHASING WOULD ARGUE

AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN

SMALLER SCALE DETAILS IS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND COULD BRING

BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...SO WE NEED TO KEEP THAT OPTION ON

TABLE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON ALL MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW

ALL WAY DOWN TO S COAST AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING

WED INTO THU. HOWEVER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING DAY

SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA

/ASIDE FROM HILLY TERRAIN/.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR MUCH OF

REGION. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY

THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

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  On 2/26/2012 at 3:03 PM, HubbDave said:

BOX AFD says "meh"

00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS

WERE FAIRLY WARM AND TOO FAR N CONSIDERING LARGER SCALE PATTERN.

ECMWF HAS BEEN PREFERRED MODEL AND IF ANYTHING WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY

FARTHER S FROM ITS 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE IN LINE

WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH STRING OUT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEMS TO OUR S WED AND THU...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD BRING ROUNDS OF

AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO SOUTHERN

STREAM MOISTURE AND LIFT IN 850-700 MB LAYER. FACT THAT SYSTEMS ARE

STRUNG OUT AND RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO LACK OF PHASING WOULD ARGUE

AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN

SMALLER SCALE DETAILS IS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND COULD BRING

BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...SO WE NEED TO KEEP THAT OPTION ON

TABLE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON ALL MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW

ALL WAY DOWN TO S COAST AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING

WED INTO THU. HOWEVER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING DAY

SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA

/ASIDE FROM HILLY TERRAIN/.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR MUCH OF

REGION. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY

THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

Going the caution flag route which is smart on their part this far out

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  On 2/26/2012 at 3:11 PM, HubbDave said:

Euro snowfall map (on Wunderground) looks a bit paltryBut I will defer to the wisdom of the mets/hobbyists

Conservative is the way to go, Easier to ramp up then go all in and have to back track if things don't pan out, Thats happened plenty of times

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  On 2/26/2012 at 2:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if part 1 is best west and south of BOS. Basically CT. The reason being, is that a big high in combo with a strung out system usually means subsidence and a screw zone for BOS on northward.

Lol...wait until Ray reads this.

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  On 2/26/2012 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ptype you mean?

Its def always a thought in a SWFE.

Yes. Obviously still out in la-la land in my book but I'm not ready to jump all in on this one. I'll give it to 00z tonight/tomorrow morning to see how things are being handled. Seeing the NAM and even the SREFs cold at this range leaves me a little less worried.

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  On 2/26/2012 at 3:45 PM, weatherMA said:

SREFs had decent probs at the end of their run and even had some 10% 4+ probs 3.5 days out...not bad. But I can't trust them too much, last storm they had 90% prob for an inch here 12 hours before and I got flurries.

Well, yes and no. As has already been alluded to, this system should be far easier to handle in the models as compared to the last system. Really only one piece to the puzzle with this ULL bowling ball. No phasing issues and such. 12z GFS rolling out so let's see if there are any major changes.

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  On 2/26/2012 at 3:42 PM, patsrule417 said:

NAM is juiciest but it is hard to get excited about that when it spit out that 5-10" for CT that WFSB rode a couple weekends back...and we got about half an inch

Adam what's up bro?, totally different setup but yea it's always juicy, sh it that's a 6-10 for us and still dumping, soundings are bone cold for us, unstable. Verbatim it would be pounding snow 12/13/07 style.

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