HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 BOX AFD says "meh" 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY WARM AND TOO FAR N CONSIDERING LARGER SCALE PATTERN. ECMWF HAS BEEN PREFERRED MODEL AND IF ANYTHING WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY FARTHER S FROM ITS 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH STRING OUT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR S WED AND THU...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD BRING ROUNDS OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND LIFT IN 850-700 MB LAYER. FACT THAT SYSTEMS ARE STRUNG OUT AND RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO LACK OF PHASING WOULD ARGUE AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER SCALE DETAILS IS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND COULD BRING BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...SO WE NEED TO KEEP THAT OPTION ON TABLE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON ALL MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL WAY DOWN TO S COAST AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WED INTO THU. HOWEVER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING DAY SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA /ASIDE FROM HILLY TERRAIN/. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR MUCH OF REGION. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AS WE DRAW CLOSER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:03 PM, HubbDave said: BOX AFD says "meh" 00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS WERE FAIRLY WARM AND TOO FAR N CONSIDERING LARGER SCALE PATTERN. ECMWF HAS BEEN PREFERRED MODEL AND IF ANYTHING WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY FARTHER S FROM ITS 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GGEM WHICH STRING OUT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR S WED AND THU...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD BRING ROUNDS OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND LIFT IN 850-700 MB LAYER. FACT THAT SYSTEMS ARE STRUNG OUT AND RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO LACK OF PHASING WOULD ARGUE AGAINST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER SCALE DETAILS IS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND COULD BRING BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...SO WE NEED TO KEEP THAT OPTION ON TABLE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON ALL MODELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL WAY DOWN TO S COAST AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WED INTO THU. HOWEVER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING DAY SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA /ASIDE FROM HILLY TERRAIN/. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR MUCH OF REGION. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AS WE DRAW CLOSER. Going the caution flag route which is smart on their part this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 2:59 PM, toronto blizzard said: For both parts all snow? lol yes...I just said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:06 PM, Dryslot said: Going the caution flag route which is smart on their part this far out Euro snowfall map (on Wunderground) looks a bit paltryBut I will defer to the wisdom of the mets/hobbyists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:11 PM, HubbDave said: Euro snowfall map (on Wunderground) looks a bit paltryBut I will defer to the wisdom of the mets/hobbyists Conservative is the way to go, Easier to ramp up then go all in and have to back track if things don't pan out, Thats happened plenty of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's coming. Early dismissal Wednesday, snow day Thursday. Futility ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 NAM is of course, juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:21 PM, CoastalWx said: NAM is of course, juicy. Too funny. I just pulled up the model extraction from Earl Barkers site. TAN receives 0.51" from 78-84h. All snow by the looks of it. Warmest layer is at the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Part 1 will surprise. Part 2 will delight. We get 3 days of 1993-94 this winter. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 2:15 PM, CoastalWx said: I wonder if part 1 is best west and south of BOS. Basically CT. The reason being, is that a big high in combo with a strung out system usually means subsidence and a screw zone for BOS on northward. Lol...wait until Ray reads this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol...wait until Ray reads this. I know..but it's on my mind. If the push is strong enough, it won't matter...but you obviously don't want the WAA push to weaken and push ESE from NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just took a looks at the nam. Hell yes. It gon snow finally. .5+ all snow and it the storm wasn't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 2:47 PM, toronto blizzard said: Do you have text output for YYZ? Sorry. I couldn't resist. It was just too easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 In my mind, I still have thoughts of areas of S CT, RI, MA having precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:35 PM, ETauntonMA said: In my mind, I still have thoughts of areas of S CT, RI, MA having precip issues. Ptype you mean? Its def always a thought in a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: Ptype you mean? Its def always a thought in a SWFE. Pingers for tolland S+ for orh Cirrus for gay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 78 hours left in the period, definitely has that 93/94 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: Ptype you mean? Its def always a thought in a SWFE. Yes. Obviously still out in la-la land in my book but I'm not ready to jump all in on this one. I'll give it to 00z tonight/tomorrow morning to see how things are being handled. Seeing the NAM and even the SREFs cold at this range leaves me a little less worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 NAM is juiciest but it is hard to get excited about that when it spit out that 5-10" for CT that WFSB rode a couple weekends back...and we got about half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 SREFs had decent probs at the end of their run and even had some 10% 4+ probs 3.5 days out...not bad. But I can't trust them too much, last storm they had 90% prob for an inch here 12 hours before and I got flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:45 PM, weatherMA said: SREFs had decent probs at the end of their run and even had some 10% 4+ probs 3.5 days out...not bad. But I can't trust them too much, last storm they had 90% prob for an inch here 12 hours before and I got flurries. Well, yes and no. As has already been alluded to, this system should be far easier to handle in the models as compared to the last system. Really only one piece to the puzzle with this ULL bowling ball. No phasing issues and such. 12z GFS rolling out so let's see if there are any major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:42 PM, patsrule417 said: NAM is juiciest but it is hard to get excited about that when it spit out that 5-10" for CT that WFSB rode a couple weekends back...and we got about half an inch Adam what's up bro?, totally different setup but yea it's always juicy, sh it that's a 6-10 for us and still dumping, soundings are bone cold for us, unstable. Verbatim it would be pounding snow 12/13/07 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 precip rates look pretty weak on the euro... hardly any panels show more than .25" liquid in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:51 PM, Ginx said: Adam what's up bro?, totally different setup but yea it's always juicy, sh it that's a 6-10 for us and still dumping, soundings are bone cold for us, unstable. Verbatim it would be pounding snow 12/13/07 style. Actually, timing wise too. 12pm- on event on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol...wait until Ray reads this. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 3:52 PM, forkyfork said: precip rates look pretty weak on the euro... hardly any panels show more than .25" liquid in 6 hours That's certainly a concern. Sheared out pos system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro was light on qpf with the snow event the other day and we know how that turned out. No reason to worry or have low expectations for this at all. Start high and lower if you have to..Look big picture and globally..not small and here and now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:00 PM, ETauntonMA said: That's certainly a concern. Sheared out pos system. It's nice to have hours and hours of mood snow in late February to freshen up the snowpack. Er--brown grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is a tad further north and drier with part 1 through hr 84 anyways. Not that QPF matters too much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 On 2/26/2012 at 4:00 PM, ETauntonMA said: That's certainly a concern. Sheared out pos system. 12z gfs looks like not much for Wednesday. 1-3 for most? Maybe more N of the pike...there is a small area of .4-.6 N of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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