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March 2012 Forecast Contest, Temperatures


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After 8 days ...

DCA +6.9

NYC +4.5

BOS +2.9

yesterday (8th) averaged about +22.

A couple of days ago BOS was actually below normal (gasp).

Don't worry, that number is about to change! My numbers maybe to low if the long range has its way. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if all stations end up about +8, especially for DCA and NYC

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After 21 days ...

DCA +11.3

NYC +9.6

BOS +9.0 (daily was +27)

Today will not slow the ascent but we may reach the summit soon. Just the plain math, assuming 12, 10, 10 by end of Friday 23rd, then the final figures come in as follows for a +2 final eight days (+5 in brackets):

DCA +9.1 (+10.2)

NYC +7.9 (+8.7)

BOS +7.9 (+8.7)

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Still climbing, after 22 days ...

DCA +11.6

NYC +10.2

BOS +9.9

yesterday was +30 for BOS ... today looks a touch cooler than records for NYC/BOS but should at least maintain values above 10, while DCA will easily add enough to make it to +12 (currently 83, a +25 anomaly).

Do you think that NYC could still get the record for warmest March ever with departures of over 10?

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March 1945 averaged 51.1 F (at Central Park, NYC). This month will be sitting around 52 F by end of weekend. So it will depend on how much damage the cold shot does mid-week, as well as another colder turn possibly next Friday (30th), all other days from now to 29th look at least equal to the record mean. I am hedging my bets, it looks 50-50 to beat the impressive March 1945 record (the most difficult monthly to beat, in my opinion). However, I don't foresee extreme monthly records being broken, in fact I noticed today that records for DCA go well into the 90s and in rather unimpressive years like 1907. I believe NYC was 86 in late March of 1945, somebody else here probably knows the actual extreme value. Will edit in the values for 23 days when they are posted.

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Update for 23 days, and this could be the pinnacle ...

DCA +12.1

NYC, BOS +10.7

worth noting, BOS +28 past three days

Today has fallen off the pace with cloud and rain but a sharper fall comes on Tuesday. As to the record falling at Central Park, see previous post, but as of now the mean is 0.8 above the record. Estimate it will fall to 0.5 below by Wednesday, so record by no means assured.

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Daily update after 26 days ...

DCA +11.4

NYC +10.0 (current 51.6 is 0.5 above record outcome)

BOS +10.1

today will lower these by almost a full half degree

NYC record looks 30% likely now to me, too many cool days (Friday-Saturday also cool) and the warmer days will be more +5 than +10 range. In a way that's a good thing because 1945 had the more impressive monthly maxima (so did 1946) -- this month will be recalled more for its persistent warmth than daily record warmth. Still an incredible torch and probably a record for Feb 24 to Mar 25 which is 31 days this year.

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Daily update after 26 days ...

DCA +11.4

NYC +10.0 (current 51.6 is 0.5 above record outcome)

BOS +10.1

today will lower these by almost a full half degree

NYC record looks 30% likely now to me, too many cool days (Friday-Saturday also cool) and the warmer days will be more +5 than +10 range. In a way that's a good thing because 1945 had the more impressive monthly maxima (so did 1946) -- this month will be recalled more for its persistent warmth than daily record warmth. Still an incredible torch and probably a record for Feb 24 to Mar 25 which is 31 days this year.

DC is on target to break the March 1945 record -- probably by about 0.5 degrees, or +9.8 relative to 1981-2010.

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