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March 2012 General Discussion


Tropical

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Looks like snow pretty good snow bands in western MI this evening!

http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no

New snow and cloudy skies kept temperatures below normal and below guidance today. Daytime high of 30°.

For sure! We have been getting DUMPED on the past couple hours. This last band is awesome. It's just pouring snow. We've picked up several inches of snow this evening.

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For sure! We have been getting DUMPED on the past couple hours. This last band is awesome. It's just pouring snow. We've picked up several inches of snow this evening.

I figured there was some good accumulations over there! Snow is forming out ahead of the cold front moving very slowly to the south.

About an inch is predicted over here. NAM qpf confirms that:

nam_namer_036_precip_ptot.gif

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I figured there was some good accumulations over there! Snow is forming out ahead of the cold front moving very slowly to the south.

About an inch is predicted over here. NAM qpf confirms that:

From eyeballing it, I'd say we have picked up about 5 inches just since 5! It's still dumping, but looks like it is about to end soon. I LOVE these lake enhanced snow events. THIS is what I moved here for......

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Well, just went out and measured...we got 6 inches of snow in about 5 hours this evening. What a wonderful surprise of lake enhanced snowfall!

Nice! I take it made up for the scant system snow yesterday. Seems like the good system snow totals were towards Ludington and north.

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Nice! I take it made up for the scant system snow yesterday. Seems like the good system snow totals were towards Ludington and north.

It sure does! Muskegon really seems to be in a crap location for synoptic snowstorms...atleast the past couple of years. I've noticed that we get much of our snow from lake enhanced events, convergent zones, and Clippers (also lake enhanced). It's kind of odd, because we either get the snow (like tonight) while other locations don't or we completely get missed while all other locations nearby get it. I'm really trying to figure it out.

Regardless, we may actually have more snow on the ground than Ludington now! Thanks for your interest, Geos.

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Very pretty snowfall here in Madison right now. We got maybe a scant quarter-inch overnight and now a second appears to be taking shape; nice sized flakes, too. Perfect for cocoa and a book...might get up to an inch according to Milwaukee.

Mogs

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Light snow here too and stuck at 24 °F, definite winter day.

Check this out regarding the snow later: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2012030415&plotName=vort_t2500&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2&wjet=1

There's a filament of vorticity riding parallel to the clipper that's approaching now, and another connected to the clipper that's gonna come through around 3-4 pm. These both will kick off snow showers. The snow now must be from the first one approaching.

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Light snow here too and stuck at 24 °F, definite winter day.

Check this out regarding the snow later: http://rapidrefresh....omain=t2&wjet=1

There's a filament of vorticity riding parallel to the clipper that's approaching now, and another connected to the clipper that's gonna come through around 3-4 pm. These both will kick off snow showers. The snow now must be from the first one approaching.

Nice. Looks like some added lift along that filament. The NAM model picks up on that feature as well. Looks like that will ride on through Lake County.

Interesting disco. on this feature and its dynamics moving through today. So far March feels like winter.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

330 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ALBERTA CLIPPER RACES SOUTHEAST FROM DAKOTAS TO MISSOURI TODAY.

MEANWHILE. MEANWHILE LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD AIRMASS WITH 500 MB TEMPS

AROUND -36C PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH RATHER MOIST

ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT BACK DOORS IN NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST

FASHION THIS MORNING...WITH NAM HAVING IT EXTEND FROM LAKE COUNTY IL

TO DANE AND SAUK COUNTIES BY NOON.

850 MB TEMPS DO COOL TO ABOUT -14 C NORTH AND -12 C SOUTH...

RESULTING IN DELTA TS AROUND 16. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW

BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT

SOME SORT OF LAKE ENHANCED MISCHIEF DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.

NAM HAS DECENT OMEGA IN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE MORNING WITH

OMEGA OF ROUGHLY 5-10 MICROBARS/S. RADAR SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA

OF 20-30 DBZ RETURNS MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST

WISCONSIN SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS AND 1 TO 1.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS WILL BE MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS AFTER MID MORNING OWING TO MARCH

SUN AND RATES OF JUST 0.1" PER HOUR.

TONIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NAM STALLS WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CHICAGO UP THROUGH JANESVILLE

MADISON AND WISCONSIN DELLS AREAS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD

CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE NARROW AND CLOSE TO

SURFACE FRONT SO TRIED TO INDICATE A NARROW AREA OF HIGH POPS

THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA AND IN A NNW-SSE FASHION.

COULD EASILY BE OFF A COUNTY OR SO ON THIS AXIS.

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Light snow here too and stuck at 24 °F, definite winter day.

Check this out regarding the snow later: http://rapidrefresh....omain=t2&wjet=1

There's a filament of vorticity riding parallel to the clipper that's approaching now, and another connected to the clipper that's gonna come through around 3-4 pm. These both will kick off snow showers. The snow now must be from the first one approaching.

Might be the last one this season :(.. I'll be sure to enjoy today's wx..

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After a day or so of the models giving us a some cooler weather. They seem to be trending back towards a more consistent torch.

They've completely changed their handling of that SW cutoff. Rather than ejecting it late this week with the northern stream energy, creating a highly amplified long-wave trough, they're retrograding the cutoff and keeping the flow split, which favors more pacific rather than arctic air.

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