A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS has the entire storm between noon and 6 pm pretty much. Gonna be fast and furious. Biggest problem I see is surface temps, they might be above freezing for parts of the storm which would ruin accumulations a bit. timing and surface temps hurt and the best cold air pulls in when it's east of the area, but i do like the potential for a thin stripe of respectable accums in WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 timing and surface temps hurt and the best cold air pulls in when it's east of the area, but i do like the potential for a thin stripe of respectable accums in WI Yeah, I think there'll be a 6"+ jackpot under the current scenario. The warm sfc temps will only be an issue until the initial layer of snow gets put down. This situation is very dynamic though and I'd be surprised if the forecast didn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS has the entire storm between noon and 6 pm pretty much. Gonna be fast and furious. Biggest problem I see is surface temps, they might be above freezing for parts of the storm which would ruin accumulations a bit. That should keep thing from being widespread 10"+ totals. Many storms have a 4-6 hour period in which the heaviest snow falls. With this one you just wouldn't have the 2-4" 6 hour beginning and the 2-4" 6 hour ending. Instead you just get the 6 hour heart of the storm 4-8" which is the best part anyway. I do wonder how much the t-storm action with this system will coming into play feeding or disrupting the snow field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 That should keep thing from being widespread 10"+ totals. Many storms have a 4-6 hour period in which the heaviest snow falls. With this one you just wouldn't have the 2-4" 6 hour beginning and the 2-4" 6 hour ending. Instead you just get the 6 hour heart of the storm 4-8" which is the best part anyway. I do wonder how much the t-storm action with this system will coming into play feeding or disrupting the snow field. depends how they line up, given that they may have a decent west/east component (as opposed to a N/S line) it will probably hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 depends how they line up, given that they may have a decent west/east component (as opposed to a N/S line) it will probably hurt. Plus they are suppose to be fast movers too. Getting in on the T-storm action is the only thing I am hoping for. Located in SEMI it is only hope at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Turtle- I hear you on that...my God are these days depressing. Only hope is next week when spring shows its head. Hopefully the college girls are out in full force in skimpy clothing. I've noticed that S Florida hasn't had winter this year...i swear every day I've looked its been above 80F... You are making miss my Ball State days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Hi: 39° here today with heavy overcast. I can't believe LOT is forecasting upper 40s for ORD tomorrow with east winds! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 You are making miss my Ball State days. I'm surrounded by sorority houses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 10 bucks that cutoff on Euro 240 verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 10 bucks that cutoff on Euro 240 verifies. It would not surprise me either. I would not be surprised by some big cutoffs this Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 10 bucks that cutoff on Euro 240 verifies. It'll be gone by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Why wont the storm tracks just run 200miles south for a week or so ?? Seems we are always on the warm side of the low, all winter long. If not on the south side of the low then in a dry slot. I like the thought of spring around the corner. But something seems too early to call winter over. Why??? I haven't heard any frogs chirping...... Sap is not moving in the maple tree yet also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Pretty big changes on the GFS beyond D6. Actually has some shallow arctic air lurking to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Skilling went with 64/70/61 next Tues-Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Thursday, March 1st: Hi: 39F Lo: 35F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 19MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Pretty big changes on the GFS beyond D6. Actually has some shallow arctic air lurking to the north. Yeah. Still shows torch for us, but as you said...cold is lurking. 00z euro on the other hand....brings down the arctic hounds next weekend. Oh, these longrange models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yeah. Still shows torch for us, but as you said...cold is lurking. 00z euro on the other hand....brings down the arctic hounds next weekend. Oh, these longrange models! This entire winter, anything past 48 hours was sketchy! 60° here, next Tuesday. Probably not with snow likely on the ground. Plus there is always the lake breeze factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Why wont the storm tracks just run 200miles south for a week or so ?? Seems we are always on the warm side of the low, all winter long. If not on the south side of the low then in a dry slot. I like the thought of spring around the corner. But something seems too early to call winter over. Why??? I haven't heard any frogs chirping...... Sap is not moving in the maple tree yet also. I hate to stray off topic but don't the maples get going in the end of March early April? I though u need a torch followed by cold to get those suckers flowing. Maple syrup FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yeah. Still shows torch for us, but as you said...cold is lurking. 00z euro on the other hand....brings down the arctic hounds next weekend. Oh, these longrange models! Almost very close to say these words but living in Michigan you can have temps in the 80's and a 10" snow event the same week. So Im not going to truly say it but at this point Im very close to pulling the...................WINTER IS OVER card for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Models really jumping around in the long range, but they seem to be more realistic looking at the 0z runs than they were looking a day ago. Have to believe we are gonna get some winter sprinkled in with the torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Skilling went with 64/70/61 next Tues-Thurs. worst possible days of the week for nice weather but I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Almost very close to say these words but living in Michigan you can have temps in the 80's and a 10" snow event the same week. So Im not going to truly say it but at this point Im very close to pulling the...................WINTER IS OVER card for SEMI Last April was a prime example. But any chances of a sustained winter pattern have come and gone. We are in line for 2-4 inches of slop only to melt by 3pm. Judging lightly by the most recent guidance it appears the next 5-7 days starting next week are a no show for any wintery weather. That brings u close to mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What does the EURO show after that cold dump next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What does the EURO show after that cold dump next weekend? Euro isn't available until 1pm ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 EURO looks chilly next friday and saturday but the heat is already building to the west it looks like on weather underground beyong that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 EURO looks chilly next friday and saturday but the heat is already building to the west it looks like on weather underground beyong that. Euro past D5-6 is always subject to change. If your holding out for cold you might have to wait or take a weeklong Alaska vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Even the so called "trough" is suspect. The GFS couldn't even properly place the trough right by 84hrs on the west coast. There isnt much on the EURO that screams artic air being pulled into the lower 48 but my eyes are pretty untrained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Euro past D5-6 is always subject to change. If your holding out for cold you might have to wait or take a weeklong Alaska vacation. Cant give up yet, but I am close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Cant give up yet, but I am close. By St Patricks day the forums will be littered with tossed towels and a full severe geek takeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 NWS La crosse mentions potential for low top super cells with strong cold front next wedneday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.