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March 2012 General Discussion


Tropical

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Forecast to get to the mid 70s tomorrow, and with lows in the mid-upper 30s tonight thats a respectable temp change.

Actually, DTX is calling for 70*+ highs for the duration of its forecast. Wow.

Looks to be just insane this week. Sounds like Euro ensembles say trough returns to the east the end of March (after the 25th). Im, dreaming, of a whiiiite, Easter lol.

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It's always interesting watching the F6's for the snowmelt in northern Michigan. The snow is barely budging from Houghton Lake. Yesterday they melted 2" from 16" to 14", with heavy rain, a high temp in the 50s and dewpoint maximum of 52. There's no way you'd only melt 2" with conditions like that. They must measure in a drifted snow pile hidden in the woods. Webcams from Houghton Lake show bare grounds, so it's interesting the huge variability in depth reports.

As an avid weather observer...snow depth is usually the hardest thing to get accurate, and Im sure its all the worse up north where the snow is greater. When I was up there Mar 2-4 i did tons of snow depth measurments after the storm. At a friends property, I was getting like 18-22" in his yard, but 24-30" when I went out back into the "woods". But you have to be realistic, take an average, and try not to overdo or underdo. It usually balances out. Like for example, if places totally shaded have 6", totally sun-open have T, and more E-W facing areas have 3", your depth is 3". It appears the observer at HTL would mark 6" LOL. Lets look at snow depths from the Gaylord NWS and Houghton Lake:

Mar 4th:

Gaylord: 27", Houghton Lake 25"

Mar 7th:

Gaylord: 20", Houghton Lake 20"

Mar 9th:

Gaylord: 8", Houghton Lake 20"

Mar 10th:

Gaylord: 9", Houghton Lake 21" (some light fresh snow)

Mar 11th:

Gaylord: 7", Houghton Lake 17"

Mar 12th:

Gaylord: 3", Houghton Lake 16"

Mar 13th:

Gaylord: T, Houghton Lake 14" (note the 7pm depth after a high of 55F today at HTL has dropped to 13").

HTL webcam...bare

image.jpg

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@ Michsnowfreak. Looks like Houghton Lake is hanging onto some ice there. I would think if the EURO is right on the extended outlook - there might be some snow still left in Ontario when that change occurs. If it does. So they only melted 1" of snow today? Where in the heck are they measuring, lol? ...maybe they are measuring a shrinking snowpile!

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DonS put up his end of March thoughts (25th-31st):

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1442333

I've looked back through DonS' past predictions, and he's been eerily spot on for a while now.

That said, I do think we're going to see a cool down around the beginning of March (not a DEEP freeze cooldown, but a trend back to normalish/below normal temperatures).

I would watch the propagation of that ridge however. For those who want a cool summer, the last thing we want is the center of these ridges setting up over the TX/OK/NM areas, where the severe drought conditions continue to persist..

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Looks to be just insane this week. Sounds like Euro ensembles say trough returns to the east the end of March (after the 25th). Im, dreaming, of a whiiiite, Easter lol.

You gotta link for those ECMWF ENS out past 240.?

FWIW 12z ECMWF ENS keeps the torch rolling strong through the 23rd. (basically the entire run)

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As an avid weather observer...snow depth is usually the hardest thing to get accurate, and Im sure its all the worse up north where the snow is greater. When I was up there Mar 2-4 i did tons of snow depth measurments after the storm. At a friends property, I was getting like 18-22" in his yard, but 24-30" when I went out back into the "woods". But you have to be realistic, take an average, and try not to overdo or underdo. It usually balances out. Like for example, if places totally shaded have 6", totally sun-open have T, and more E-W facing areas have 3", your depth is 3". It appears the observer at HTL would mark 6" LOL. Lets look at snow depths from the Gaylord NWS and Houghton Lake:

Mar 4th:

Gaylord: 27", Houghton Lake 25"

Mar 7th:

Gaylord: 20", Houghton Lake 20"

Mar 9th:

Gaylord: 8", Houghton Lake 20"

Mar 10th:

Gaylord: 9", Houghton Lake 21" (some light fresh snow)

Mar 11th:

Gaylord: 7", Houghton Lake 17"

Mar 12th:

Gaylord: 3", Houghton Lake 16"

Mar 13th:

Gaylord: T, Houghton Lake 14" (note the 7pm depth after a high of 55F today at HTL has dropped to 13").

HTL webcam...bare

Yeah. I've noticed the depth at HTL just doesn't jive. The Gaylord obs make sense given the warmth they've had. The web cam says it all though, not even a speck of snow on it. How in the world you could get an average 13" depth is bewildering. It's got to be the max depth the observer could find, and likely in a wooded area nearby. I bet by the time this torch ends they still have 6-7" left next week. They should hit 65 degrees tomorrow, but I guarantee they'll only melt off an inch or two.

I just wish that when we had 55 degree days here we'd only melt an inch of our snow :whistle: If it hits 55 degrees here, we wipe out 8" of depth in an afternoon.

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