daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Saints...GFS has been showing a mild period (warm?) around the 12th of March...i see the 6z has the first 60Fs i've seen.. Something to watch. With no snow cover, we could torch pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Saints...GFS has been showing a mild period (warm?) around the 12th of March...i see the 6z has the first 60Fs i've seen.. Something to watch. With no snow cover, we could torch pretty easily. Yes also gets 850's to around 9c next monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't think that would have much effect locally. It's not like the entire region from the Gulf through the Lakes is in a significant drought. True it is a pretty narrow region. If anything the moisture may be able to pool pretty well once it reaches the OV if we keep those moist soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 FWIW... 12z ECMWF continues to show that any severe threat with the Friday system would reach as far north as the IL/WI border and Michigan. Soundings looks legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 FWIW... 12z ECMWF continues to show that any severe threat with the Friday system would reach as far north as the IL/WI border and Michigan. Soundings looks legit. The wind profile/hodo around IKK at 18z Friday is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 FWIW... 12z ECMWF continues to show that any severe threat with the Friday system would reach as far north as the IL/WI border and Michigan. Soundings looks legit. Watching that one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I remember a time when GRR and DTX would regularly come out with their AFDs prior to 330pm EST. That doesn't seem to happen anymore and it pisses me off slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 FWIW... 12z ECMWF continues to show that any severe threat with the Friday system would reach as far north as the IL/WI border and Michigan. Soundings looks legit. Hell I'd argue even as far north as here, Euro has us in the upper 50s overnight Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I remember a time when GRR and DTX would regularly come out with their AFDs prior to 330pm EST. That doesn't seem to happen anymore and it pisses me off slightly. Yeah they have been slow as of late, although this week there is a lot of weather to forecast for, so I can understand why they have came out later than normal this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Marchobomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 < 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm going to savor Wednesday. That might be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Finally a decent storm and its rain, 986mb on the 18z GFS is a fairly decent sized storm but too much WAA. I do think many areas have a shot at hitting 50F, perhaps higher but I dont see 60's across SEMI or SONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If I'm reading it right, the 12z Euro brings 60s as far north as I-80 in Illinois Friday. Low 70s down by St. Louis. Haven't looked at forecast soundings yet, but it looks like there's very nice shear profiles just by looking at different heights. Instability will be key, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If I'm reading it right, the 12z Euro brings 60s as far north as I-80 in Illinois Friday. Low 70s down by St. Louis. Haven't looked at forecast soundings yet, but it looks like there's very nice shear profiles just by looking at different heights. Instability will be key, of course. Not quite that warm, but warm. Maybe mid 50s up to I-80. Mid 60s for St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If I'm reading it right, the 12z Euro brings 60s as far north as I-80 in Illinois Friday. Low 70s down by St. Louis. Haven't looked at forecast soundings yet, but it looks like there's very nice shear profiles just by looking at different heights. Instability will be key, of course. If it is that warm it will be unstable, GFS which is normally conservative has 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SB CAPE up to Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The track is beautiful! It feels like we went back to the times right before the year 2009, when all the lows went right through S/E Mi, bringing us rain. Back to reality I guess. LOL NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If it is that warm it will be unstable, GFS which is normally conservative has 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SB CAPE up to Indy. Wow, that's very impressive for early March that far north. Definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 18z GFS is a complete torch after this weekend. Not likely but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not quite that warm, but warm. Maybe mid 50s up to I-80. Mid 60s for St. Louis. Wrong. Cyclone is right. Mid 60's up to about I-80 and 70's around STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 18z GFS is a complete torch after this weekend. Not likely but it's there. It also says if you live East of the Mississippi, to buy an ark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If it is that warm it will be unstable, GFS which is normally conservative has 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SB CAPE up to Indy. Fred was throwing out some scary CAPE numbers last night when I was in chat with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 60Fs next week if you believe the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 After this sleeper or a winter I would take the torch and believe me that is not my style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 digging the torch signals, we're overdue for a warm early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 digging the torch signals, we're overdue for a warm early spring. 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I love seeing the warm signals. Sorry if I am hesitant to believe them. It seems like whenever I see an upcoming pattern in the models (cold or warm) that I really like it never comes to fruition. I know it is not totally true but it sure seem that way at times. I would love this Spring to be a mild one. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 2010 wasn't warm for me, tons of local lake breezes kept it cool and foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 wasn't warm for me, tons of local lake breezes kept it cool and foggy. April 2010, was mild in the area. +7°. Average high of 61° here. March and most of May were cool though. In fact in the middle of May there was a string of 40 degree highs with frost a couple mornings! Warmer the last 10 days of the month. Warmer than normal springs are hard to get around here with the lake breezes and fog. Kinda like being on the west coast with an persistent onshore breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 serious peaks and valleys on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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