Stebo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 A snippet from the long term disco at IWX from Skipper: TEMPERED HIGHS SOME BUT ESPECIALLY TEMPERED LOWS TO COME BETTER IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. LOWS OF 55F OR HIGHER AT FWA FROM MARCH 14 TO 18 HAVE ONLY OCCURRED TWICE IN THE LAST 110 YEARS. My point forecast lows: Wednesday 55 Thursday 55 Friday 55 Saturday 56 It's just amazing that the lowest predicted high for the next seven days is today at 69. Yeah the coldest forecast temp from now through early next week is 41 tomorrow night which might be too low in of itself. Our average high is 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I'm an anomalous weather or bust guy and this is pretty heavy stuff "IT WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH 80 A FEW MORE TIMES. THIS IS SOME 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUDINESS... CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF LAKE BREEZES WILL JUST GO WITH MID 70S FOR NOW. NO END IN SIGHT TO THE MILD PATTERN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Ended up with .14 inches of rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Ended up with .14 inches of rain.... Stuck in clouds all day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Looks that way...may be some breaks in the clouds...seeing some holes over Iowa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Looks like an MCC heading this way, if it can be called that. Since it's not severe, I figured discussion should be in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Looks like an MCC heading this way, if it can be called that. Since it's not severe, I figured discussion should be in this thread. Those look good for some lightning and heavy downpours! It has been getting darker here. About 60° now. Had a low of 45° this morning, which is a couple degrees above the normal high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Picked up 0.31" overnight here. 55 here, while just southeast of here it's 5-10 degrees warmer. Stuck in dense cloud cover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 First severe tstorm warning of the year for Wisconsin in Milwaukee/Racine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 First severe tstorm warning of the year for Wisconsin in Milwaukee/Racine right now. I can hear the thunder off those! About 15 miles away. Starting to rain here. Looks like a rainy afternoon according to Skilling's RPM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 KORD GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/12/2012 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19|TUE CLIMO N/X 45 67| 51 76| 58 72| 55 72| 55 71| 55 70| 56 72| 57 30 47 TMP 46 62| 54 70| 61 66| 58 65| 57 65| 57 64| 58 65| 59 DPT 41 41| 49 54| 57 58| 54 54| 52 55| 52 52| 53 54| 54 WND 11 7| 5 14| 10 10| 8 9| 8 16| 12 15| 13 15| 13 P12 13 1| 3 5| 15 28| 40 32| 33 20| 33 31| 24 16| 20 32 25 P24 13| 6| 31| 51| 45| 36| 32| 42 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 1 0| 3 1| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 2| 1| 1| | T12 5 0| 2 8| 32 47| 30 27| 29 14| 21 16| 14 12| 10 T24 | 2 | 35 | 62 | 44 | 34 | 23 | 20 PZP 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 1| 2 PSN 1 0| 3 6| 6 7| 7 10| 9 13| 14 14| 17 20| 16 PRS 3 2| 4 3| 3 3| 4 2| 3 2| 2 3| 3 3| 4 TYP R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R SNW 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 12z GFS keeps the early summer pattern going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Last March I never hit 60F... I guess this is payback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I realize it's probably less than a 50/50 shot at this point...but there's a chance that ORD hits 80 on Wednesday 3/14. If it does, it would be only the 3rd time it has ever been 80 before March 23 (80 on 3/3/1974, 81 on 3/12/1990). The normal high for 3/14 is 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I realize it's probably less than a 50/50 shot at this point...but there's a chance that ORD hits 80 on Wednesday 3/14. If it does, it would be only the 3rd time it has ever been 80 before March 23 (80 on 3/3/1974, 81 on 3/12/1990). The normal high for 3/14 is 46. the daily records are great but the prolonged length is what is really impressive...March departures will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 12z GFS keeps this circus going through at least 3/26. Can't say I'm complaining. MILWAUKEE KMKE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/12/2012 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19|TUE CLIMO N/X 42 63| 48 71| 56 69| 53 66| 52 67| 52 66| 53 66| 53 28 43 TMP 43 56| 50 66| 58 63| 54 61| 54 61| 55 60| 55 59| 55 DPT 36 36| 44 55| 56 55| 51 55| 50 53| 50 50| 50 50| 50 Wonder how warm it'll be since they trend toward climo, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It's worth remembering that the GFS is known to be totally wrong a week out. This seems like infinite warmth now but it could change fast. Arctic sea ice has been increasing quite a bit at the pole so maybe some cold air that's building up could still surprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It's worth remembering that the GFS is known to be totally wrong a week out. This seems like infinite warmth now but it could change fast. Arctic sea ice has been increasing quite a bit at the pole so maybe some cold air that's building up could still surprise us. Sure, but the cross model agreement on at least another 7-10 days of well above normal temps is pretty solid right now. Clearly the potential for an abrupt shift and late cold blast remains as long as the cold air remains strong up there...it's just not coming any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The buds on many of the trees around here are already pretty big. With the length of the extreme warmth over the next few weeks we'll likely see a premature ejaculation of the leaves/flowers lol. At some point there will be a cold period, so it will be interesting to see how all that plays out with everything leafing out so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The buds on many of the trees around here are already pretty big. With the length of the extreme warmth over the next few weeks we'll likely see a premature ejaculation of the leaves/flowers lol. At some point there will be a cold period, so it will be interesting to see how all that plays out with everything leafing out so early. very much the same story here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I decided to wear shorts and a sweatshirt today. Did not expect the bulk of the day to be wet; I thought most of the rain was going to be overnight. I'm used to getting less rain than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Doppler radar estimated about 0.50" fell over NE Lake County. Rain has let up a bit. Little chill in the air now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 SREF max temp forecast. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 SREF max temp forecast. Wow. ... That's wild. Looks like a mid-April warmup. Wednesday looks to be the best shot at 70° here. Some of the models show a front moving down Lake Michigan on Thursday and turning winds NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 the daily records are great but the prolonged length is what is really impressive...March departures will be huge. Agree. From March 1-11, ORD is +7.4. If all goes as planned for the next 7-10 days, they will probably be +12 to +14 for March 1-22. The all-time warmest March was 48.6F in 1910 and 1945...which is about a +11 departure. So, ORD could come close to that record, as long as it stays decently mild during the last week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX talking possible 80's MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL FORECASTING AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALMOST SUMMER LIKE RIDGE (582-586 DAM AT 500 MB)...AND TEMPS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WE GET TO TUESDAY AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES CLIMB TOWARD 564 DAM. LAKE BREEZES WOULD LIKELY BE COMING INTO PLAY HOWEVER AND WILL NEED TO REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE THAT FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EUROPEAN PROFILES A BIT COOLER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 NAM has 4000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 65 dews in IA on Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 lol, what a weird ass stretch this has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 lol, what a weird ass stretch this has been It's called spring, although even for spring the first half of March has been quite the mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 It's called spring, although even for spring the first half of March has been quite the mixed bag. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.