michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 After 5 consecutive months of below average temperatures (Dec 2010 thru Apr 2011), we had 4 consecutive months of above average temps (May 2011 thru Aug 2011), 1 month with an exact 0.0F departure (Sep 2011), and now 6 more consecutive months and running of above avg temps (Oct 2011 thru Mar 2012)...so essentially this will be the 11th consecutive month without a below normal temperature departure. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=80509&source=0 That was an interesting writeup on March warm spells by DTX, though the snow blurb on the bottom is in error. Should 0.1" on Mar 9th be the seasons last measurable snow, it would tie with Mar 9, 1999 for 3rd earliest last measurable snow. The earliest were Feb 27, 1946 and Feb 27, 2010. The longest consecutive 60F+ stretches in March: 9 days - Mar 1945 8 days - Mar 1910 7 days - Mar 1945 6 days - Mar 1968, 1995, 1998 Interesting tidbits about the above: 1945, Detroits warmest March on record was insane. It came after a brutally cold winter, caused vegetation to be 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule, and was followed by a few days with snow in April (a few traces and an 0.2", and a trace in May). Most impressive is that it was 7 consecutive days of 60+, 2 day break (one day in 40s, one 50s), then 9 more consecutive daye. 1910 holds the record for latest snow on record, a trace on May 31st! 1968s stretch of 60 and 70 degree weather came just a few days after a 7.7" snowstorm. Lastly, today is March 11th...on this day in 1946 the last trace of snow fell in the futile 1945-46 season of 22.0". This is the earliest last snow on record, the same year that holds the record for the earliest last measurable snow (Feb 27, 1946). The last snow of the 2011-12 season has been March 9th (0.1"). Will we set a new record for earliest last flakes or will this follow the mold of most other warm Marches with April (and even May) snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Was just looking at some of F6s and climate reports. Somehow Pittsburgh is actually at normal for the season right now with 36.9" of snowfall. Yet, Buffalo is only at a pathetic 35.1". It would be incredible if PIT beats out BUF for total seasonal snowfall. I'm sure it has to be a first. It does appear that there are a tiny handful of sites that did manage to squeak out normal snowfall this winter ... (FWA, MBS, HTL, PIT, YNG) Barring a big spring snowstorm, will will be solidly below average snow season at DTW, but nowhere near futility, so the top 20 snowiest/snowless winters list still has one thing of domination sticking out, and thats the number of 2000s in the snowiest list Oh, and is it ever possible for YNG to have a below average season anymore? At least while the current observers are on duty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 This sunset at 7 pm thing is excellent. Still got plenty of the day left at 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Wow hit 67.6 today. Way over the forecast high. NWS says we might hit 80 on Wednesday and that this persistent pattern lasts well through next weekend. Has ANYONE ever seen a pattern like this in March before? I have never seen so many warm days strung together in my life. Models are way to cool with the 2M temps along the border and into Canada. Likely over playing the snow cover. Considering March temperatures for many of us are dependent on Snow Cover/Northerly Flow to be cold. A warm feedback loop is not that surprising. Typically the weather can not stay this warm this long. But this winter/last 10 months or so hasn't been typical. We are running near record 12 month running values here in STL on the long term record back 12 months. I won't mind if this lasts until mid fall and then flips. It is looking like widespread low to mid 80s will be on order all over next week. And the warmest comes later on. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 ORD just missed the first 70+ on the season today, coming in with 69 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Made it to 66 here today. Dews are starting to slowly creep upward after being around 30 most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Still sticking at 64F...some sun the last hour... Cyclone- Dews have actually dropped back up here...down to 26F... I'm going for a bike ride this evening. Can't beat a weekend like this. Playing in the yard, grilling out, taking bike rides, walks... Just out pruning my apple tree and the buds are already swelling... I'm really worried where these things will be a week from now. The stuff I have on the north side of the house is delayed some because of the shadow effect of the house, but this south facing stuff hasn't had snowcover for a long time. This is the type of setup you get with a complete crop wipeout. Even my strawberries are throwing out growth...Luckily I can protect those pretty easily. Going to be eating berries by May me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMTH. 850MB TEMPS ON AVERAGE HOLD BETWEEN 10-14C...OR 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND NEAR OR ABOVE RECORDS. PERHAPS THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE ON THURSDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THAT DYING COLD FRONT. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOO...AIDED BY DEWPOINTS HOLDING MAINLY IN THE 50S. IN FACT...LOWS COULD BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. Euro is showing dewpoints getting into the 60Fs? In March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Euro is showing dewpoints getting into the 60Fs? In March? Sounds like tornado weather to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 NWS here thinks its way high, but who knows with this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 So nice to be able to open the window up in the stuffy dorm room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Still sticking at 64F...some sun the last hour... Cyclone- Dews have actually dropped back up here...down to 26F... I'm going for a bike ride this evening. They started rising here about 2-3hrs ago, so it hasn't been too long. Weather station shows it up to 40 now here, which is a 10 degree rise from earlier this afternoon. According to the RUC we should be into the low 50s by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Still sticking at 64F...some sun the last hour... Cyclone- Dews have actually dropped back up here...down to 26F... I'm going for a bike ride this evening. Can't beat a weekend like this. Playing in the yard, grilling out, taking bike rides, walks... Just out pruning my apple tree and the buds are already swelling... I'm really worried where these things will be a week from now. The stuff I have on the north side of the house is delayed some because of the shadow effect of the house, but this south facing stuff hasn't had snowcover for a long time. This is the type of setup you get with a complete crop wipeout. Even my strawberries are throwing out growth...Luckily I can protect those pretty easily. Going to be eating berries by May me thinks. That's really crazy! Daffodils and Crocus' are the main thing growing now. Some evidence my ferns will be sending out some fiddleheads pretty soon. Lake breeze kept the high in check. Sitting at 54° with a SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Good lord, now that's a trough and LLJ : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Good lord, now that's a trough and LLJ : Very impressive indeed. The vast amount of warmth, a gulf that has been hardly disturbed, and the impressive varying jet dynamics could spell big trouble eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I can't remember so many warm days strung together like this so early. Maybe 2-3, but not 7+. It's not only unusual to have temps in the 50s-60s that many days in a row so early, but 70s to potential 80s? Just bizarre. Gonna be an awesome stretch. Unless we hit a really wet spell at some point this Spring I think we're in for a long and hot/dry summer. I bet what happens now has no impact on the summer. We could have the coldest summer on record, its just a flip of a coin. Seasonal outlooks have been proven to be 100% worthless. It just further backs up the notion that we really don't have a handle on pattern science yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Barring a big spring snowstorm, will will be solidly below average snow season at DTW, but nowhere near futility, so the top 20 snowiest/snowless winters list still has one thing of domination sticking out, and thats the number of 2000s in the snowiest list Oh, and is it ever possible for YNG to have a below average season anymore? At least while the current observers are on duty Aren't like 4 of the top snowiest winters in DTW during the 2000's?It looks almost 100% unlikely we have no more sub 45 degree days in March this year. What on earth is screwing up the jet so bad? Whatever it is... Stop right around Oct 15th please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I bet what happens now has no impact on the summer. We could have the coldest summer on record, its just a flip of a coin. Seasonal outlooks have been proven to be 100% worthless. It just further backs up the notion that we really don't have a handle on pattern science yet. Harsh winter followed by scorching summer last year....mild winter followed by cool summer this year sounds awfully nice to me (since weve already had to deal with a mild winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 What a difference a year makes! Last year at this time we saw two plastering snowfalls a week apart. Had 4.7" on Mar 5/6 and 4.3" on Mar 10/11. March 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I bet what happens now has no impact on the summer. We could have the coldest summer on record, its just a flip of a coin. Seasonal outlooks have been proven to be 100% worthless. It just further backs up the notion that we really don't have a handle on pattern science yet. Yeah I definitely agree about the seasonal outlooks. They're pretty much worthless. I guess my main point was if the dry soil conditions continue we'll have a better chance at a hot summer. Around here one of the main limiting factors in getting the serious heat in here for a long period of time is the negative feedback from wet soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I bet what happens now has no impact on the summer. We could have the coldest summer on record, its just a flip of a coin. Seasonal outlooks have been proven to be 100% worthless. It just further backs up the notion that we really don't have a handle on pattern science yet. I think the spring will have it's own pattern apart from summer also. The cooler summers are usually when an La Nina is fizzling out from winter or during neutral conditions. The cool 2008 summer came off a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I think the spring will have it's own pattern apart from summer also. The cooler summers are usually when an La Nina is fizzling out from winter or during neutral conditions. The cool 2008 summer came off a La Nina. We're still in a La Nina pattern right now and will be heading into El Nino shortly. I think our summer this year may be a tad bipolar (as was our winter, though we didn't see many major winter storms in the Southwestern portion of Michigan). I think we'll see some days in the 60s, and some days in the 90s (maybe even a few topping out in the 100s). But I think a lot will stay in the 70s to lower 80s. It's really hard to tell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 We're still in a La Nina pattern right now and will be heading into El Nino shortly. I think our summer this year may be a tad bipolar (as was our winter, though we didn't see many major winter storms in the Southwestern portion of Michigan). I think we'll see some days in the 60s, and some days in the 90s (maybe even a few topping out in the 100s). But I think a lot will stay in the 70s to lower 80s. It's really hard to tell right now. February's ENSO value was -0.5, so were barely hanging onto a La Nina. I think the summer pattern will be up in the air a bit. The La Nina pattern this winter didn't follow any particular analogues, maybe the summer pattern will be unruly too! It will be interesting to see if a El Nino tries to develop later on. Also... Welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Coldest part of this entire storm is 40 °F. In the upper 50s here with dewpoints nearing 40 °F and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Light rain, 54° here. 38° dewpoint. Lakefront locations are in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Moisture rich precipitation bands overspreading Illinois and southern Wisconsin, direct feed from the Gulf. Temperature and dewpoint slowly closing the gap, looks like they'll meet around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 About a tenth of an inch of rain so far. Dew has risen up to 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 51°/Dew: 44° here. Light rain. Probably settle in the upper 40s tonight with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Sunday, March 11th: Hi: 67F Lo: 38F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 27MPH Rainfall: Trace Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 A snippet from the long term disco at IWX from Skipper: TEMPERED HIGHS SOME BUT ESPECIALLY TEMPERED LOWS TO COME BETTER IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. LOWS OF 55F OR HIGHER AT FWA FROM MARCH 14 TO 18 HAVE ONLY OCCURRED TWICE IN THE LAST 110 YEARS. My point forecast lows: Wednesday 55 Thursday 55 Friday 55 Saturday 56 It's just amazing that the lowest predicted high for the next seven days is today at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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