andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Ja, getting warm temperatures up into the OV this early is never a good thing. Quick question, would this setup also have potential for the Lower MS Valley and TN Valley? If the track shifted a bit south, then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 I would be somewhat shocked if we left March without seeing another appreciable severe weather event for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. All this early season warmth spells trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 That is absurd. The GEFS are even warmer than the OP GFS,which has a cool Bias. The Euro sends 18-20C 850 mb temps near the Hudson Bay at the end of the run around the 19th. It looks like most of us will have chances to break records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Down to 23 here this morning. The last sub freezing temps for the foreseeable future in Northern Indiana. FWA has had 11 of the past 12 months with positive departures from the normal mean, many months several degrees above normal. The most notable were July and December at +6.4 and +6.0. The exception was September, which was a -1.8. Anecdotally, it seems that we haven't experienced an abnormal number of record highs, but daily minimums have been consistently higher than normal. It looks like we are going to make it 12 out of 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 ............ That is absurd. The GEFS are even warmer than the OP GFS,which has a cool Bias. The Euro sends 18-20C 850 mb temps near the Hudson Bay at the end of the run around the 19th. It looks like most of us will have chances to break records. Those maps you posted say '850 MB temp anomalies'. Regardless I would agree record breaking temps are very possible coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Red flag warning on march 10th. Don't know if I have ever seen that around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 Are we in March or May? The funny part is with early season warmups, you usually get a day or two then temps crash. Not this month. This may go on for 2+ weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 About 0.5-1'' fell but it did come in heavy bursts at times. EC recorded 0.4mm of precip yesterday at YYZ lol. Me on the other hand, I got about 2.0 to 2.5cm yesterday lol. TWN says f*ckin 20C (68F), later this week, incredible. And the avg is 37.5F lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Nice contrast between MN and South Dakota... Its colder in Texas than the Northern plains lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Just about got blown off of I 90...would not want to be traveling today around this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Record today is 67F from 1894...not sure we'll be able to beat that...NWS shows 65F now today..already 48F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Wednesday looks to be the warmest next week. I wouldn't doubt it if someone reaches 80 somewhere in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 NWS just upped to 69F... 57F now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 How many records this week is the ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 All of them?? Its crazy windy, but it looks like i'll be putting shorts on shortly and taking the kids for a bike ride to the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 This bares watching for us in Southern parts of Michigan. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html If things get more unstable, we may see our first Severe Storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Still kinda chilly here. 46° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 This bares watching for us in Southern parts of Michigan. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html If things get more unstable, we may see our first Severe Storms this year. Interesting. But yeah, I would like to see more instability/moisture before buying into that. I never really expect anything to come out of these early season severe weather setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Lake Mendota is opening up. Kind of the official end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 This bares watching for us in Southern parts of Michigan. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html If things get more unstable, we may see our first Severe Storms this year. Just looking at this setup, I'd favor a hail threat slightly over damaging winds especially given low freezing levels. Although directional shear isn't outstanding, I could see some isolated tornado potential especially if the higher moisture verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 60F last obs, but I was just out and i'm guessing 63-65F now... Wind is still a blowing. Off on the bike ride. I'll take some pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 CME is going to directly hit Earth tonight, midnight +/- 7 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 18z NAM sounding for Findlay Monday evening. Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yeah I keep forgetting that this may extend northeast too (after the Ozarks/Arklatex threat on Sunday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Tough bike ride. Wind gusting to 30 or better... Lot of people out. Biked about 12 miles to Riverside and then through the marsh trails. Took some pics/video. 66F... Hopefully we can creep up another 1F and tie/break the record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 18z NAM sounding for Findlay Monday evening. Interesting to say the least. Low level winds seem to be a little less veered on this run. That will be interesting to watch. I wouldn't think the setup would be particularly favorable for keeping the winds backed given the lack of real deepening, but even if surface winds are more like 190-200 it may still result in about 60 degrees of turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 DTX THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN WISCONSIN/LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A MORE OPEN WAVE AS IT PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OF GULF ORIGIN WILL LIFT INTO SRN MICHIGAN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. DECENT SYSTEM RELATIVE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD WARMING MON AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING RAINFALL. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS /PARTICULARLY THE NAM/ INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL WARRANT A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM DOES NOT WEAKEN THE MID LEVEL WAVE QUITE AS FAST AS OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THUS ADVECTS A LITTLE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO SE MI MON AFTERNOON /MID-UPPER 50S/. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN SOME SFC BASED CAPE...WHICH IN LIGHT OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND POTENTIAL LATE DAY MID LEVEL DRYING...COULD PROVE TO BE A FORMIDABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PREFER AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE ARE NOT QUITE AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE LATE DAY SFC MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ARE THEREFORE MORE STABLE WITH RESPECT TO ANY CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Interesting. But yeah, I would like to see more instability/moisture before buying into that. I never really expect anything to come out of these early season severe weather setups. I wouldn't say that. If temperatures weren't going to be this warm, I would write it off. But with temperatures approaching 70F, MLCAPE >1,000, veering winds, low level shear, EHI >1, cold 700mb temps, I wouldn't rule out the potential. Everything spells out an isolated tornado event, and widespread hail, and damaging winds threat across SEMI. Solid 30W/30H/5T slight risk for the southern 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Hard to take photos of my kids when both of them kept running for the river... Mile or two from home and they both passed out... My legs felt like jello when I got home. About 100 pounds of trailer i'm towing behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 CME is going to directly hit Earth tonight, midnight +/- 7 hours. Good night for Aurora north of the 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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