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March 2012 General Discussion


Tropical

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SWS - DVN:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

859 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012

IAZ041-042-051>054-063>067-077-ILZ001-007-080400-

WASHINGTON IA-MUSCATINE IA-LINN IA-JOHNSON IA-JACKSON IA-IOWA IA-

DUBUQUE IA-DELAWARE IA-BENTON IA-CEDAR IA-CLINTON IA-JONES IA-

JO DAVIESS IL-CARROLL IL-

859 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012

...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN WILLIAMSBURG AND DUBUQUE MAY PRODUCE

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE

STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH AND SHOULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR

CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...CASCADE AND DUBUQUE BY 10 PM.

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TWN has our temp at 8C tomorrow aft, but EC has it at 1C. I don't know who to believe...

I wouldn't think you'd be in the warm sector long enough tomorrow PM to still have temps that warm. Temperatures are falling from near 16°C ahead of the front to about 1°C in back of the front!

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So far the low at ORD has been 55F. If they stay above this through midnight, it will set a new record high min for March 7. The current record is 53F in 2000.

Also, if the 55F holds, it will be the 2nd highest low temp on record for so early in the season. The only warmer low temp was 56F on 3/5/1983.

Record broken. (Min was actually 54)

It's still 63, so Thur will end up the 3rd consecutive 60+ day.

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You know it's going to be warm when climo biased GFS MOS is showing 60, 65, 64, 67 for next Mon-Thur.

Yeah both the Euro and GFS have long periods with 70s along I-70 in MO/IL. even close to 80F. One of the days as 15C 850mb here during the morning of a full sunshine day and a SW wind. That is more likely to be a record warm day in the mid 80s or maybe upper 80s if the 850s end up a bit warmer. Even without that, 15C 850mb should be able to produce mid 80s with the right conditions.

The Euro smokes the upper plains. I would think 3-4 days in a row out there with 20C+ 850s in the Dakotas then 14-15C 850s streaming into Minnesota. That has to be worth 70s if it's sunny.

In St. Louis that stretch is dominated by records in the 80s. Mostly low to mid. I don't know the record highs in Minnesota, but Solar Altitude is not that much weaker up there than here the last week.

The models have generally underplayed the down sloping flow all winter this far out. If they are now We may see some large pockets of 16-18C 850mb temps reach Chicago and St. Louis. Some 15C make it to Detroit.

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The 6z GFS is a warmistas wet dream... My God is next week going to feel weird. People will go crazy. Thongers...man thongs...banana hammocks. Spring break is next week and there will be no reason to go south. The chicks up here will probably be frolicking topless and possibly bottomless :lmao:

Looks like 60F+ starting Sat and maybe a few hiccups, but keep that warmth all the way through the following weekend...

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I've got a babysitter lined up for one of my kids, so biking should be in the cards next week. Its going to rock. The goal is to have a tan by next Friday.

Golf could be in the cards for me. Its wierd that low to mid 40's will be the cold days in the near future.

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