daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 March 2010 was great ...6 days above 60F and 2 days above 70F... We started the month with heavy snow cover, but that melted away very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 March 2010 was great ...6 days above 60F and 2 days above 70F... We started the month with heavy snow cover, but that melted away very quickly. We started March with 8" snowpack...gone in a week, and only a trace fell all month. Not exciting for snow or severe, so im surprised all the folks in MI saying "redux"...the same folks who hate boring are wishing for boring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 North Dakota has 3% unemployment. McDonalds restaurants are even paying $15/hr. It's certainly cold in North Dakota. I wouldn't think of it as an exceptionally snowy place. Isn't Bismarck <6" on the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 As I have alluded to often, a majority of mild winters feature cold springs with big spring snowstorms. Ive been feeling that this year too. Makes you wonder, it seems the lack of frost-depth and snowcover didnt seem to hinder cold blasts in those years. But then you look at some other years like the nations infamous "year without a winter" of 1877-78, the torch continued and in fact accelerated in March and April. This is the much less common scenario when looking at past mild winters, but certainly plausible and has happened more than once. Then you have things like March 1973...we were torching our way to the warmest March ever (still stands as 5th warmest mar btw) until being slammed with an epic snowstorm on St Paddys day (10" at DTW but I think 18-20" near FNT or MBS). Same in '83, March was torching away after a snowless winter until we were slammed with 6-12" on the first day of spring, another 3-6" storm Apr 17th, and record lows in May (actually had a record low the night I was born ). So regardless of how March starts, long ways to go with snowstorm potential. Yeah I was said I still think there could be a major winter storm or two coming up as ground temps really don't have much to do with that (i.e. April 2005 & April 2003). I don't know where you get frost-depth and hindering cold blasts? No where did I say warmer grounds and lakes would prevent cold blasts. If that were the case then winter would never come after summer (if you know what I mean). If the pattern is right then it is going to be warm or cold regardless of surface conditions. Surface conditions would then only have localized affects. My point is the lack of winter this year is very broad-based. Many times mild winters are more regional. My point is the broad-based lack of winter could have positive feedback. One has to wonder if that is what happened in 1877-78 as that was very broad-based too. I still personally believe that mild winters lead to a perception of a cooler Spring. Most of this winter has been in the 30s & 40s. Even if we had an average March I am willing to bet it would perceive by people as cold and below normal. Heck even a slightly above normal March I believe would be perceived as a cool March. For this Spring to feel mild I believe it would have to be a top 20 if not top 10 warmest. Anything else will be perceived as a colder Spring. Think of it this way: Have 2 weeks in 20s and then have a couple days in the 50s. Now have 2 weeks in the 80s and then have a day a couple days in the 50s. Your a stat person you should do some stat digging. Maybe someones has already do it. Do mild winters get followed by below normal springs? Personally I think you will find the results are mixed (I would not be surprised if you find it leaning toward above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's certainly cold in North Dakota. I wouldn't think of it as an exceptionally snowy place. Isn't Bismarck <6" on the season? 8.5" Currently under a WWA for 2-5" for tonight/overnight. This will probably bust their least snowiest winter on record (11.7 in 1980-81), if not by the Mon-Tue system. Obviously snow usually sticks around a long time there, even if it isn't an exceptionally snowy winter. Still, they had 100.3" in the winter of 2008-09. 101.6" in 1996-97, 85.4" last winter. So they can get some big total winters/seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I was said I still think there could be a major winter storm or two coming up as ground temps really don't have much to do with that (i.e. April 2005 & April 2003). I don't know where you get frost-depth and hindering cold blasts? No where did I say warmer grounds and lakes would prevent cold blasts. If that were the case then winter would never come after summer (if you know what I mean). If the pattern is right then it is going to be warm or cold regardless of surface conditions. Surface conditions would then only have localized affects. My point is the lack of winter this year is very broad-based. Many times mild winters are more regional. My point is the broad-based lack of winter could have positive feedback. One has to wonder if that is what happened in 1877-78 as that was very broad-based too. I still personally believe that mild winters lead to a perception of a cooler Spring. Most of this winter has been in the 30s & 40s. Even if we had an average March I am willing to bet it would perceive by people as cold and below normal. Heck even a slightly above normal March I believe would be perceived as a cool March. For this Spring to feel mild I believe it would have to be a top 20 if not top 10 warmest. Anything else will be perceived as a colder Spring. Think of it this way: Have 2 weeks in 20s and then have a couple days in the 50s. Now have 2 weeks in the 80s and then have a day a couple days in the 50s. Your a stat person you should do some stat digging. Maybe someones has already do it. Do mild winters get followed by below normal springs? Personally I think you will find the results are mixed (I would not be surprised if you find it leaning toward above normal). Sorry, I wasnt saying you said that, I was actually alluding to other comments made by others wrt the lack of frost depth and snowcover, I was moreso quoting your post to agree with your comments about a possible spring snowstorm, then I decided to just delve into a big old post . 1877-78 was probably the most notorious year without a winter because it was very widespread (like this year), it was Minnesotas warmest winter ever I believe. We actually had a 15.7" snowstorm in Detroit on Jan 31/Feb 1, 1878. But it was very warm. You are right about how often times bad winters can be more regional, and this one is suckage across the board. While I have done no studying on how Mar/Apr play out following nationwide mild winters, I HAVE looked it up locally. And you are correct in saying the results are mixed, but the lean was definitely towards a cold March or April rather than a mild one. Looking at Detroits top 20 warmest winters (this winter will certainly be placed in that list), the Marches that followed those winters saw below normal temps 13 of the 20 times, and the Aprils were below normal temps also 13 of the 20 times. There were a few very sparse snow years, but the lean was definitely for above normal snowfall. So the bottom line is, while its totally possible for SE MI to have a warm and near snowless Mar/Apr after a mild winter, if you play the odds, chances of colder and snowier than normal weather, or at least a big snowstorm or unseasonable cold snap, are higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 8.5" Currently under a WWA for 2-5" for tonight/overnight. This will probably bust their least snowiest winter on record (11.7 in 1980-81), if not by the Mon-Tue system. Obviously snow usually sticks around a long time there, even if it isn't an exceptionally snowy winter. Still, they had 100.3" in the winter of 2008-09. 101.6" in 1996-97, 85.4" last winter. So they can get some big total winters/seasons. Do you know what the region averages Tim? I know the cities in the southern Canadian Prairies (Winnipeg, Regina, etc) are in the upper 30 to low 40 inch range. I assumed ND would be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Do you know what the region averages Tim? I know the cities in the southern Canadian Prairies (Winnipeg, Regina, etc) are in the upper 30 to low 40 inch range. I assumed ND would be similar. That sounds about right. I'm on my phone, so I don't have the exact averages in front of me at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 That sounds about right. I'm on my phone, so I don't have the exact averages in front of me at the moment. You're right. Bismarck has an average of 41.9", Minot 39.2", Fargo 38.0". Got the data from weatherbase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18Z GFS has a sweet storm around day 6/7 ! Followed by a nice cold blast MKE talked about it in their AFD as well... QuoteHIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRIEFLY QUIETS THE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...BUT BENIGN CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED. WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DEPICTED BY EXTENDED GUIDANCE YESTERDAY HAS NOW MORPHED... UNSURPRISINGLY...TO STRONGER...HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS DEPICTING MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN WI WHILE ECMWF HAS SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LINGERING INTO SAT. HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. APPEARS QUIET FIRST HALF OF WINTER HAS CAUGHT UP WITH US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That's a little much saying the quiet winter has caught up with us from a day 6/7 fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That's a little much saying the quiet winter has caught up with us from a day 6/7 fantasy storm. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 this. Its not just that day 6/7 "fantasy storm".. You also have the cocktail mix early/middle of this week.. And when you add in this past storm that is potentially 3 decent storms within the span of a week.. Can't get much more active than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Its not just that day 6/7 "fantasy storm".. You also have the cocktail mix early/middle of this week.. And when you add in this past storm that is potentially 3 decent storms within the span of a week.. Can't get much more active than that.. It's pretty typical to have cyclones crossing the Midwest, it's not like this level activity is anything special, and therefore it doesn't really make up for all the time when it was freakishly quiet. If we get a sub-970 mb cyclone or 2 that would be real backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Do you know what the region averages Tim? I know the cities in the southern Canadian Prairies (Winnipeg, Regina, etc) are in the upper 30 to low 40 inch range. I assumed ND would be similar. Upon further inspection, it's actually a little higher. 1981-10 normal snowfall. Taken from: http://ggweather.com/normals/snow.html Bismarck, ND: 51.2" Dickinson, ND: 35.5" Fargo, ND: 50.1" Grand Forks, ND: 47.1" Jamestown, ND: 44.5" Minot, ND: 46.1" Williston, ND: 45.3" Aberdeen, SD: 38.4" Huron, SD: 43.9" Pierre, SD: 31.2" Rapid City, SD: 41.1" (49.3" at the WFO) Sioux Falls, SD: 44.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 http://youtu.be/8RCs2RKiLlA I hate March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Upon further inspection, it's actually a little higher. 1981-10 normal snowfall. Taken from: http://ggweather.com/normals/snow.html Bismarck, ND: 51.2" Dickinson, ND: 35.5" Fargo, ND: 50.1" Grand Forks, ND: 47.1" Jamestown, ND: 44.5" Minot, ND: 46.1" Williston, ND: 45.3" Aberdeen, SD: 38.4" Huron, SD: 43.9" Pierre, SD: 31.2" Rapid City, SD: 41.1" (49.3" at the WFO) Sioux Falls, SD: 44.5" Cool link! Looks like average snowfall have crept up a couple inches in the area in the last 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Could the dry soils down south hurt northward advection of moisture? I've never looked in to this a lot....Just curious to see some your thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 FWIW, the 12z GEM shows a nice hit for southern Illinois up through much of Indiana and Ohio next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Could the dry soils down south hurt northward advection of moisture? I've never looked in to this a lot....Just curious to see some your thoughts on it. Yes, it could. I know drought conditions feed back on itself. Dry ground, leads to less cloud formation, and warmer temperatures prevail. High pressure may want to persist over dry soil areas. That's my take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Could the dry soils down south hurt northward advection of moisture? I've never looked in to this a lot....Just curious to see some your thoughts on it. I don't think that would have much effect locally. It's not like the entire region from the Gulf through the Lakes is in a significant drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 FWIW, the 12z GEM shows a nice hit for southern Illinois up through much of Indiana and Ohio next weekend. I am still learning and try to only post 5 times a YEAR But by looking at the models, wouldn't the temps be too warm for anything other than rain in Central and southern Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro weeklies ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Upon further inspection, it's actually a little higher. 1981-10 normal snowfall. Taken from: http://ggweather.com/normals/snow.html Bismarck, ND: 51.2" Dickinson, ND: 35.5" Fargo, ND: 50.1" Grand Forks, ND: 47.1" Jamestown, ND: 44.5" Minot, ND: 46.1" Williston, ND: 45.3" Aberdeen, SD: 38.4" Huron, SD: 43.9" Pierre, SD: 31.2" Rapid City, SD: 41.1" (49.3" at the WFO) Sioux Falls, SD: 44.5" Interesting. I thought the general dryness of the area would preclude numbers like that, especially for ND. Regardless, that's not what I'd consider a particularly "snowy" climate, going back to my original point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro weeklies ... The Euro weeklies have been spot on for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The Euro weeklies have been spot on for the most part. If those are right I will be playing golf before the end of March which is very odd around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If those are right I will be playing golf before the end of March which is very odd around here. Like March 2010. I can't see a redux of 3/2010 though. That Spring was in a category of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Like March 2010. I can't see a redux of 3/2010 though. That Spring was in a category of its own. GFS is advertising a pretty good torch early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It looks like after the next two systems, winter (as in any chance of sustained cold/snowy weather) will pretty much end for a good portion of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It looks like after the next two systems, winter (as in any chance of sustained cold/snowy weather) will pretty much end for a good portion of the country. And those 2 systems dont look like they impact many on this particular forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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