SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Lol about how spot on EC has been. Whatever long range models they are using are kick ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah I don't see a summer like 2009 coming, Yeah I agree. That summer was astonishingly cool/wet. My gut instinct is we're in for a hot/dry summer but there's absolutely no science behind that guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 2009 was in a league of its own. Its overall pattern was littered with consistant Omega Blocks and massive 3-4 day GL cut-off lows. It was something alongthe lines of a perpetual late spring pattern. 2009 summer was something borderline rare or once in a decade. If we turn the corner on the above normal departures is yet to be seen. Its unreasonable to think that pendulum will swing into the complete opposite direction rapidly. Basically a slow transition into a "normal" temp spread is more likely than a drastic swing down. Eventually though this temp regime will relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Food for thought but did you or anyone else(besides Torchartie)foresee a winter like this coming?? Common consensus was for a cold/wintry winter for most.. We saw what happened.. I'd love to see some really good consensus going on a Hot Spring/Summer I did think it would been Near to slightly above normal, with above normal snow/precip. So I was 1 1/2 out of 3 ? lol I did think the upper plains were going to be cold... whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 2009 was in a league of its own. Its overall pattern was littered with consistant Omega Blocks and massive 3-4 day GL cut-off lows. It was something alongthe lines of a perpetual late spring pattern. 2009 summer was something borderline rare or once in a decade. If we turn the corner on the above normal departures is yet to be seen. Its unreasonable to think that pendulum will swing into the complete opposite direction rapidly. Basically a slow transition into a "normal" temp spread is more likely than a drastic swing down. Eventually though this temp regime will relax. meh.. 2004 and even 2000 was basically identical to 2009 departure wise. Heck this area did not even see a 90 degree reading in either of those summers. Alot of days in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s in all 3 summer months. And i do recall that 2004 was very wet however we did get a few nice severe wx events though in 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 I have followed the weeklies for a few years now and well this is the warmest ( departure wise ) i can recall seeing especially next week. The center of it is right over top of the GL. How warm do you think we get next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 How warm do you think we get next week? The euro itself has 70s both Wed and Thurs next week. Probably a good starting point. Usually the models end up being too cool in these types of patterns. This does not look like a backdoor pattern either with the ridge looking to be centered over top of us and thus the one way models end up too warm. So yeah 70+ is probably a good bet and 80+ would not surprise me either especially if we can keep the clouds away and or if you are away from the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 meh.. 2004 and even 2000 was basically identical to 2009 departure wise. Heck this area did not even see a 90 degree reading in either of those summers. Alot of days in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s in all 3 summer months. And i do recall that 2004 was very wet however we did get a few nice severe wx events though in 04. 2008 also was cool. At least around here. I agree with your summer analysis. I expect will see an El Nino develop at some point this year. Two years in a row of primarily La Nina conditions -can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 The euro itself has 70s both Wed and Thurs next week. Probably a good starting point. Usually the models end up being too cool in these types of patterns. This does not look like a backdoor pattern either with the ridge looking to be centered over top of us and thus the one way models end up too warm. So yeah 70+ is probably a good bet and 80+ would not surprise me either especially if we can keep the clouds away and or if you are away from the lakes. Wow. We are going to have a record early green up / leaf out. Last time we hit 80 in March was 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Oh and i did some poking around. I went back to 1950 and well every summer following a nina ended up below normal in this region no matter if we went neutral or Nino but yeah the nino's were even cooler and thus more below normal with one exception and thus 76 which ended up basically normal here in L.MI and slightly above normal in WI/Upper MW. And yeah i have liked 76 as a analog for a while now. We transition to weak nino it will get bumped up a little more. Atleast for spring/summer. THAT is what could keep me from going too much below normal and or closer to normal with temps. Yes it is rare but ala so was this winter. See how everything else plays out first before i make a huge leap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Oh and i did some poking around. I went back to 1950 and well every summer following a nina ended up below normal in this region no matter if we went neutral or Nino but yeah the nino's were even cooler and thus more below normal with one exception and thus 76 which ended up basically normal here in L.MI and slightly above normal in WI/Upper MW. And yeah i have liked 76 as a analog for a while now. We transition to weak nino it will get bumped up a little more. Atleast for spring/summer. THAT is what could keep me from going too much below normal and or closer to normal with temps. Yes it is rare but ala so was this winter. See how everything else plays out first before i make a huge leap. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't last Summer roll in on the heels of a Nina? Did you guys not get above norm departures? State wide I thought just roasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Oh and i did some poking around. I went back to 1950 and well every summer following a nina ended up below normal in this region no matter if we went neutral or Nino but yeah the nino's were even cooler and thus more below normal with one exception and thus 76 which ended up basically normal here in L.MI and slightly above normal in WI/Upper MW. And yeah i have liked 76 as a analog for a while now. We transition to weak nino it will get bumped up a little more. Atleast for spring/summer. THAT is what could keep me from going too much below normal and or closer to normal with temps. Yes it is rare but ala so was this winter. See how everything else plays out first before i make a huge leap. 76 had some pretty big severe weather up this way with a large number of tornadoes. The nation as a whole had an active severe weather season with 3 separate outbreaks producing F5 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Wow. We are going to have a record early green up / leaf out. Last time we hit 80 in March was 2007. Missed it by one day and thus April 1st 2010 was 83 here. I went back to 2000 and could not find any but i know it has happened. Warmest i could find was 77. Earliest 80+ day here is March 22nd. Thus we are talking record warmth for sure if we can sneak in a 80+ day. Atleast around here. Warmest March temp here is 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't last Summer roll in on the heels of a Nina? Did you guys not get above norm departures? State wide I thought just roasted. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Skilling going with 70 tomorrow. "Cooler" UA temps and more cloud cover, but a higher temp to start and good mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't last Summer roll in on the heels of a Nina? Did you guys not get above norm departures? State wide I thought just roasted. We had a strong Nina the winter before that basically went Nina again. Not neutral/Nino. NO cases of a 2nd year nina ( like we have ) having a above normal summer following it here with that 76 exception. 76 had some pretty big severe weather up this way with a large number of tornadoes. The nation as a whole had an active severe weather season with 3 separate outbreaks producing F5 tornadoes. Yep..That was pretty active in this state/region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Missed it by one day and thus April 1st 2010 was 83 here. I went back to 2000 and could not find any but i know it has happened. Warmest i could find was 77. Earliest 80+ day here is March 22nd. Thus we are talking record warmth for sure if we can sneak in a 80+ day. Atleast around here. Warmest March temp here is 82. The warmest I've seen it here in March, was 79° on March 7, 2000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 We had a strong Nina the winter before that basically went Nina again. Not neutral/Nino. NO cases of a 2nd year nina ( like we have ) having a above normal summer following it here with that 76 exception. Yep..That was pretty active in this state/region. Gotcha. Who the heck knows what will happen. I think what is shocking to most people is seeing yet another above normal month. The persistence of this pattern is awesome and amazing. If anything I've learned that mother nature doesn't care about analogues and past observed patterns, she will do what she wants. Totally agree and like stated before watching this patterns next move is highly entertaining. It has to buckle at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Wow. We are going to have a record early green up / leaf out. Last time we hit 80 in March was 2007. Oh yes, March 2007. I remember that setup perfectly. The night before (early morning hours) we had some t'storms then temps skyrocketed into the low 80s with some pop-up t'storms (non-severe, garden variety). I saw an official cloud burst that day, in fact. Then the next day was when the real fun began. Temps once again skyrocketed back into the low 80s (both days recorded a temperature of 81*F). This day gave way to some pretty widespread severe t'storm, especially from the city-southward. This was also the event where a storm developed the NE suburbs, sat overhead and dumped 8" in a very localized spot. I have pics of some MASSIVE cumulonimbus clouds from this event. I never saw CB clouds that huge, even in the summer. A storm developed overhead and produced a pretty good downpour (did have some hail mixed in), but it drifted southward before reaching its peak and dumped some significant penny-sized hail over downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 The warmest I've seen it here in March, was 79° on March 7, 2000! I have seen 80+ in March but not here. Closest was 2010 with that April 1st 80+ day. Warmest i have ever seen was 86 back in 1990 if i recall correctly. Had a massive March torch back east. Baltimore MD if i recall correctly made it up to 96 at the peak. I lived at the coast so yeah it was a little bit cooler there vs the inland locations along i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Gotcha. Who the heck knows what will happen. I think what is shocking to most people is seeing yet another above normal month. The persistence of this pattern is awesome and amazing. If anything I've learned that mother nature doesn't care about analogues and past observed patterns, she will do what she wants. Totally agree and like stated before watching this patterns next move is highly entertaining. It has to buckle at some point. Lets just hope we can get a decent event whenever it does decide to buckle. That would piss me off to no end to see the pattern flip and get nothing out of it. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Screw it i'm all in.. Pulling for a 90 next week !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Lets just hope we can get a decent event whenever it does decide to buckle. That would piss me off to no end to see the pattern flip and get nothing out of it. ugh Yes. With that being said lets hope it's not a devistating deadly tornado outbreak or a major flare up in tropical activity. But you know that's how she rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah, July roasted. How about rolling out the 1934 analog for the OV this summer lol. Dustbowl madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Oh yes, March 2007. I remember that setup perfectly. The night before (early morning hours) we had some t'storms then temps skyrocketed into the low 80s with some pop-up t'storms (non-severe, garden variety). I saw an official cloud burst that day, in fact. Then the next day was when the real fun began. Temps once again skyrocketed back into the low 80s (both days recorded a temperature of 81*F). This day gave way to some pretty widespread severe t'storm, especially from the city-southward. This was also the event where a storm developed the NE suburbs, sat overhead and dumped 8" in a very localized spot. I have pics of some MASSIVE cumulonimbus clouds from this event. I never saw CB clouds that huge, even in the summer. A storm developed overhead and produced a pretty good downpour (did have some hail mixed in), but it drifted southward before reaching its peak and dumped some significant penny-sized hail over downtown. Only managed 77 here and it was 3 days in a row too. Thus 3/25, 3/26, and 3/27 made it up to 77. Had a nice streak of warmth from 3/21 till April 4th and then the bottom fell out. Started with a high of 64 on the 4th but by the end of the day it fell to 25 and snowed a little. Failed to hit freezing for the next 3 days and by the 12th 10.9" inches of snow had fallen here. Talk about a crazy flip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yes. With that being said lets hope it's not a devistating deadly tornado outbreak or a major flare up in tropical activity. But you know that's how she rolls. I can agree with that. Unless the nino kicks in hard and fast i do think the tropics may get going a little bit earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Lol about how spot on EC has been. Whatever long range models they are using are kick ass. But that is kinda ridiculous to forecast temp departures for a year from now. I was unaware forecasts went that far. Anyone have a link to EC extended that goes a year+ out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 But that is kinda ridiculous to forecast temp departures for a year from now. I was unaware forecasts went that far. Anyone have a link to EC extended that goes a year+ out? Euro monthlies go out 6 months. FWIW they are showing normal temps for M-J-J-A.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I remember back in the late 80s we hit the mid 80s late in March. Tomorrow's a challenging forecast due to cloud cover potential. DVN staying fairly conservative with mid 60s, which is probably the right way to go. Any extra sunshine though and we'll be back into the low 70s. As for next week, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an 80 considering some of the latest guidance. If there's a year to have some early extreme maxes, this is the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Tuesday, March 6th: Hi: 66F Lo: 31F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear Max Wind Gust: 48MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.