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March 2012 General Discussion


Tropical

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12z 8-10 day ensemble means continue to show the powerful negative height anomaly/trough on the west coast in the medium range with a torch on the east coast. 12z GFS ensembles go pretty crazy after that, to say the least (buy an ark/storm cellar), and I haven't checked the Euro ensembles yet.

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Yeah I think the overall lack of snow cover this winter will help early season warmups, much like today. There's so much less moisture in the ground compared to normal over a vast area. Also, the lack of melt/runoff should keep rivers and streams much lower than normal. All that plus a warmer type of pattern the next few weeks could lead to lots of record highs me thinks. Maybe some more early season severe as well. :popcorn:

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WOW I knew it snowed there but geez! Only 0.1" here this morning. Are you in Toledo proper? It sometimes amazes me the difference between Detroit and Toledo, as if the MI/OH border is some sort of magic divide.. Usually it is Detroit seeing so much more snow, this time it was Toledo.

I'm actually in Bowling Green, but KTDZ is the closest station. KTOL actually reported 3.7" which matches well with other sites between Route 6 and I-80. I'll upload pics when I can, not sure when I will get to the computer that I save photos on. Other reports around the TOL area were roughly 4-5", especially near the lakeshore areas.

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Yeah I think the overall lack of snow cover this winter will help early season warmups, much like today. There's so much less moisture in the ground compared to normal over a vast area. Also, the lack of melt/runoff should keep rivers and streams much lower than normal. All that plus a warmer type of pattern the next few weeks could lead to lots of record highs me thinks. Maybe some more early season severe as well. :popcorn:

Mid range pattern on the GFS/Euro ensembles plays out and I think that's pretty likely.

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It would be funny if, after a decade of relatively snowy winters around here, that we enter a decade of relatively warm springs/summers.

+1

Looking at today's high temp observations from around the lakes was interesting. Many sites averaged some 5 + degrees higher than forecast. Preaching to the choir but tommorow might be the same. The snowpacks to the north are going to take a huge beating.

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We have averaged +5.0 to +6.0 since November, I see no reason that is changing this month, if anything I will say it might be even higher.

Do you think the trend of above norm could persist for even longer? If we transition into a El Niño, that sometimes means a warm signal. Watching this play should be interesting.

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Do you think the trend of above norm could persist for even longer? If we transition into a El Niño, that sometimes means a warm signal. Watching this play should be interesting.

Actually, I think a developing Nino favors a cooler than normal Summer and Autumn. 2009 is an example of this at least through October.

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Yeah I think the overall lack of snow cover this winter will help early season warmups, much like today. There's so much less moisture in the ground compared to normal over a vast area. Also, the lack of melt/runoff should keep rivers and streams much lower than normal. All that plus a warmer type of pattern the next few weeks could lead to lots of record highs me thinks. Maybe some more early season severe as well. :popcorn:

Looks like the plains are drier and the GL/OV are quite moist actually. Hopefully no widespread droughts this spring/summer.

palmer.gif

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Do you think the trend of above norm could persist for even longer? If we transition into a El Niño, that sometimes means a warm signal. Watching this play should be interesting.

Roardog summed it up nicely, I think we stay above normal until July maybe August, then below normal for how long remains the question.

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Wasn't 2009 a horrible summer? Wet and Cool? I pray to god that does not happen! I really don't think that this summer will be cool at all. We should stay right around Neutral to slightly El Nino conditions, similar to last summer. Also, what I foresee a very hot summer because there is no blocking of any kind to the north, which should keep most of the country above normal temp wise.

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Wasn't 2009 a horrible summer? Wet and Cool? I pray to god that does not happen! I really don't think that this summer will be cool at all. We should stay right around Neutral to slightly El Nino conditions, similar to last summer. Also, what I foresee a very hot summer because there is no blocking of any kind to the north, which should keep most of the country above normal temp wise.

+1. 2009 was a beast that had every index favorable for craptastic weather. -AO / -NAO ... blocking all summer with el nino conditions.

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Euro weeklies. Keep beating that drum, this is going to be a Tropical spring.

590x375_03061848_mar5a.png

590x375_03061849_mar5b.png

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I have followed the weeklies for a few years now and well this is the warmest ( departure wise ) i can recall seeing especially next week. The center of it is right over top of the GL.

Actually, I think a developing Nino favors a cooler than normal Summer and Autumn. 2009 is an example of this at least through October.

Yep. It is only a matter of time before we switch. Those thinking that it wont happen till June or later i think are gonna greatly disappointed. The streak of above normal monthly temps as IS is already amazing and for anyone to think that this is gonna go on much longer ( months ) is REALLY pushing it. I went above normal temps for spring but i admit confidence is low. March looks to help big time.

Roardog summed it up nicely, I think we stay above normal until July maybe August, then below normal for how long remains the question.

June IF we are lucky. June will probably be the warmest departure wise of the summer months especially if we go weak Nino. Doubt it will be as cool as 2009 though. I wouldn't write it off though.

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