SpartyOn Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Time to starting looking back on the upper air pattern of March 2010 and compare it too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Morels will pop very early around here...I doubt south facing slopes have had frost for a few weeks. Get some warm rain and we'll see the grass green up early. Tulips will also pop pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Topped at 65.5° at home. 63° currently. Winds are slackening off a bit. Daffodils are coming up with full force now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 It would be funny if, after a decade of relatively snowy winters around here, that we enter a decade of relatively warm springs/summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 AWESOME weather today. Windy, but very warm. As expected temps overachieved. Made it to 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Just noticed my weather station recorded a gust to 48mph today. Didn't know it was THAT windy today. That ties the all-time gust on that station since first online back in Nov '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The is will we over achieve overnight as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Obliterated the forecasted high today, maxed at 58 currently 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 64 in Madison. Snowpack vaporized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 12z 8-10 day ensemble means continue to show the powerful negative height anomaly/trough on the west coast in the medium range with a torch on the east coast. 12z GFS ensembles go pretty crazy after that, to say the least (buy an ark/storm cellar), and I haven't checked the Euro ensembles yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Euro weeklies. Keep beating that drum, this is going to be a Tropical spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 We have averaged +5.0 to +6.0 since November, I see no reason that is changing this month, if anything I will say it might be even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah I think the overall lack of snow cover this winter will help early season warmups, much like today. There's so much less moisture in the ground compared to normal over a vast area. Also, the lack of melt/runoff should keep rivers and streams much lower than normal. All that plus a warmer type of pattern the next few weeks could lead to lots of record highs me thinks. Maybe some more early season severe as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 2010 was an awesome year for severe weather here. I will gladly say goodbye to winter if it means we get a repeat of 2010. Of course, I'm pretty sure winter said goodbye on Feb. 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 WOW I knew it snowed there but geez! Only 0.1" here this morning. Are you in Toledo proper? It sometimes amazes me the difference between Detroit and Toledo, as if the MI/OH border is some sort of magic divide.. Usually it is Detroit seeing so much more snow, this time it was Toledo. I'm actually in Bowling Green, but KTDZ is the closest station. KTOL actually reported 3.7" which matches well with other sites between Route 6 and I-80. I'll upload pics when I can, not sure when I will get to the computer that I save photos on. Other reports around the TOL area were roughly 4-5", especially near the lakeshore areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah I think the overall lack of snow cover this winter will help early season warmups, much like today. There's so much less moisture in the ground compared to normal over a vast area. Also, the lack of melt/runoff should keep rivers and streams much lower than normal. All that plus a warmer type of pattern the next few weeks could lead to lots of record highs me thinks. Maybe some more early season severe as well. Mid range pattern on the GFS/Euro ensembles plays out and I think that's pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 got up to 55* here today....mid 60s seems very achievable for tomorrow. Gonna pull out the shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 It would be funny if, after a decade of relatively snowy winters around here, that we enter a decade of relatively warm springs/summers. +1 Looking at today's high temp observations from around the lakes was interesting. Many sites averaged some 5 + degrees higher than forecast. Preaching to the choir but tommorow might be the same. The snowpacks to the north are going to take a huge beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 We have averaged +5.0 to +6.0 since November, I see no reason that is changing this month, if anything I will say it might be even higher. Do you think the trend of above norm could persist for even longer? If we transition into a El Niño, that sometimes means a warm signal. Watching this play should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Do you think the trend of above norm could persist for even longer? If we transition into a El Niño, that sometimes means a warm signal. Watching this play should be interesting. Actually, I think a developing Nino favors a cooler than normal Summer and Autumn. 2009 is an example of this at least through October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah I think the overall lack of snow cover this winter will help early season warmups, much like today. There's so much less moisture in the ground compared to normal over a vast area. Also, the lack of melt/runoff should keep rivers and streams much lower than normal. All that plus a warmer type of pattern the next few weeks could lead to lots of record highs me thinks. Maybe some more early season severe as well. Looks like the plains are drier and the GL/OV are quite moist actually. Hopefully no widespread droughts this spring/summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Do you think the trend of above norm could persist for even longer? If we transition into a El Niño, that sometimes means a warm signal. Watching this play should be interesting. Roardog summed it up nicely, I think we stay above normal until July maybe August, then below normal for how long remains the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 If we can keep the nino away and transition to neutral, the cooler summer/fall may not develop. Environmental Canada forecasts above normal temperatures for us through next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Wasn't 2009 a horrible summer? Wet and Cool? I pray to god that does not happen! I really don't think that this summer will be cool at all. We should stay right around Neutral to slightly El Nino conditions, similar to last summer. Also, what I foresee a very hot summer because there is no blocking of any kind to the north, which should keep most of the country above normal temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Wasn't 2009 a horrible summer? Wet and Cool? I pray to god that does not happen! I really don't think that this summer will be cool at all. We should stay right around Neutral to slightly El Nino conditions, similar to last summer. Also, what I foresee a very hot summer because there is no blocking of any kind to the north, which should keep most of the country above normal temp wise. +1. 2009 was a beast that had every index favorable for craptastic weather. -AO / -NAO ... blocking all summer with el nino conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah I don't see a summer like 2009 coming, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 If we can keep the nino away and transition to neutral, the cooler summer/fall may not develop. Environmental Canada forecasts above normal temperatures for us through next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Looks like La Nina is on the way out. Warming is commencing in the eastern Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Yeah I don't see a summer like 2009 coming, Food for thought but did you or anyone else(besides Torchartie)foresee a winter like this coming?? Common consensus was for a cold/wintry winter for most.. We saw what happened.. I'd love to see some really good consensus going on a Hot Spring/Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Euro weeklies. Keep beating that drum, this is going to be a Tropical spring. I have followed the weeklies for a few years now and well this is the warmest ( departure wise ) i can recall seeing especially next week. The center of it is right over top of the GL. Actually, I think a developing Nino favors a cooler than normal Summer and Autumn. 2009 is an example of this at least through October. Yep. It is only a matter of time before we switch. Those thinking that it wont happen till June or later i think are gonna greatly disappointed. The streak of above normal monthly temps as IS is already amazing and for anyone to think that this is gonna go on much longer ( months ) is REALLY pushing it. I went above normal temps for spring but i admit confidence is low. March looks to help big time. Roardog summed it up nicely, I think we stay above normal until July maybe August, then below normal for how long remains the question. June IF we are lucky. June will probably be the warmest departure wise of the summer months especially if we go weak Nino. Doubt it will be as cool as 2009 though. I wouldn't write it off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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