Tropical Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 With less than a week to go in February, met spring is right around the corner. Looks like we will start the month with a -PNA, +AO, +NAO. NAEFS and CPC are torching the eastern 1/2 of the country in their extended outlooks. I think March continues beating the drum of unseasonable warmth for us and with the increasing solar energy severe weather season should get an early start. Also with the ENSO trending more toward neutral this spring, the severe weather season should focus itself further north than last year and I think the Upper Midwest / Lakes cashes in on a lot of action. Many fewer cold rains for us this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 With less than a week to go in February, met spring is right around the corner. Looks like we will start the month with a -PNA, +AO, +NAO. NAEFS and CPC are torching the eastern 1/2 of the country in their extended outlooks. I think March continues beating the drum of unseasonable warmth for us and with the increasing solar energy severe weather season should get an early start. Also with the ENSO trending more toward neutral this spring, the severe weather season should focus itself further north than last year and I think the Upper Midwest / Lakes cashes in on a lot of action. Many fewer cold rains for us this spring. One of the few times I agree with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Solidifies my gut feeling of another snoozer severe spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I also agree with Cromartie. I haven't seen more than a trace of snow in March for the past two years, might as well make it three. IF the AO/NAO stays positive and the Nina dissipates, it will be interesting to see how it affects us here in the GL/OV, severewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I could go for a March 2010 redux. This winter is a dud and nothing is going to change that. Might as well put it behind me and wait for 2012-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I could go for a March 2010 redux. This winter is a dud and nothing is going to change that. Might as well put it behind me and wait for 2012-13. You might get your wish. FWiW I don't think the majority of us will ever see such a awkward winter for some time. Tropical... Great insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the complete lack of frost depth, lack of snow cover and warmer lakes (even several of the inland lake have limited/no ice cover) affect things the first 1/2 of spring (March into mid-April). Warm fronts may have an easier time surging northward. I am so used to the getting hung up in the OV and then completely stalling south of MI. Hopefully severe weather/t-storm outbreaks will have a better chance further north into the GLs this spring. Right now the -PNA, +AO, +NAO combo would suggest the GLs might get into the early spring action (normally IMBY I have to wait until May before getting to the springtime t-storm action). I still would not be surprised for a major snow storm and/or ice storm this spring. Winters like this seem to have one or two tricks left in them. I know cold is not done with us just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think it will be a continuation of boring weather with nothing that special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think it will be a continuation of boring weather with nothing that special. That is kind of the problem with weather forums. Many times when central OH is active it means MBY is boring. Not that I wish ill will but honestly when central/southern OH are boring it CAN means MBY is active. My best t-storm summers seem to occur when OH/IN are dry (not necessarily drought) and warm. Milwaukee gets it best snowstorms when Detroit is dry slotted to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The GFS, for the last few runs, has show a hint of spring with temps probably aproaching 60F for the local area... Something to keep an eye on. I do think that the insane temp anomalies are about to end and March will be normal if not below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 OK...so I may end up being incorrect on March temps, but still...something has to give sometime... I do hope that we have something resembling spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The GFS, for the last few runs, has show a hint of spring with temps probably aproaching 60F for the local area... Something to keep an eye on. I do think that the insane temp anomalies are about to end and March will be normal if not below normal. I guess it would take a fairly substantial pattern change to get a below normal. By my untrained non met eye..I just don't see that playing out on any of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I guess it would take a fairly substantial pattern change to get a below normal. By my untrained non met eye..I just don't see that playing out on any of the guidance. Correct me if I am wrong but none of the major indices would be indicating any major chnages heading into march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 There's nothing that suggests a cold March right now so might as well go with persistence and call it above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The GFS continues to hint as some torching in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 What do the wooly bear caterpillars say about the Spring tropical? Honestly they/you predicted the winter pretty well, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the complete lack of frost depth, lack of snow cover and warmer lakes (even several of the inland lake have limited/no ice cover) affect things the first 1/2 of spring (March into mid-April). Warm fronts may have an easier time surging northward. I am so used to the getting hung up in the OV and then completely stalling south of MI. Hopefully severe weather/t-storm outbreaks will have a better chance further north into the GLs this spring. Right now the -PNA, +AO, +NAO combo would suggest the GLs might get into the early spring action (normally IMBY I have to wait until May before getting to the springtime t-storm action). I still would not be surprised for a major snow storm and/or ice storm this spring. Winters like this seem to have one or two tricks left in them. I know cold is not done with us just yet. Good insight and points. The top 3" of soil here was frost free the other day. Tonight with the snow I'm sure it will frost up again, but it is definitely a shallow layer of frost around here. Springs around here are fickle. I've seen mid 70s during the first week of March or temperatures in the single digits during the day with 6" of snow on the ground. Being near the lake though, you get a fair share of cool, damp/foggy days in early spring. I see April as the beginning of spring having said that. Sometimes severe weather makes it here in March, but not usually. Will be interesting to see if severe weather season starts farther north! The GFS, for the last few runs, has show a hint of spring with temps probably aproaching 60F for the local area... Something to keep an eye on. I do think that the insane temp anomalies are about to end and March will be normal if not below normal. Wow, 60°, that must be in the long range. I think the Upper Midwest will be near normal for temperatures. This awful winter may have a few tricks up its sleeve yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Lets go. Bring on spring. I want put away this garabge ass f*cking winter. the amount of busts, unbelieveable. instead of saying, "next winter"....I'm just going to move next year to a coldier and snowier place. this is pathetic. I hope its a March 2010 followed by a April 2010 too p!ssed to think more effectively right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 What do the wooly bear caterpillars say about the Spring tropical? Honestly they/you predicted the winter pretty well, so... Even a broken clock is right twice a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Even a broken clock is right twice a day... Only once a day in Zulu time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Lets go. Bring on spring. I want put away this garabge ass f*cking winter. the amount of busts, unbelieveable. instead of saying, "next winter"....I'm just going to move next year to a coldier and snowier place. this is pathetic. I hope its a March 2010 followed by a April 2010 too p!ssed to think more effectively right now. More snowy places = less job prospects (as a general rule). I've been saying I want to move for a few years now but it's easier said than done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 With less than a week to go in February, met spring is right around the corner. Looks like we will start the month with a -PNA, +AO, +NAO. NAEFS and CPC are torching the eastern 1/2 of the country in their extended outlooks. I think March continues beating the drum of unseasonable warmth for us and with the increasing solar energy severe weather season should get an early start. Also with the ENSO trending more toward neutral this spring, the severe weather season should focus itself further north than last year and I think the Upper Midwest / Lakes cashes in on a lot of action. Many fewer cold rains for us this spring. I want a couple more winter events to solidify the potential of a back-loaded winter, so the severe weather season will hopefully be on hold for a couple more weeks. Hard to believe we're already discussing the potential though. This winter sure flew by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 What do the wooly bear caterpillars say about the Spring tropical? Honestly they/you predicted the winter pretty well, so... I remember someone mentioning the squirrels late last fall and how their activities were a prediction of the coming winter. Squirrel bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 18z GFS shows what would be a milder period after the 6th... mainly 40Fs and 50Fs around these parts... Would love to grab a couple of 60F days by mid March... Although too much heat too early could really screw up the bloom on the fruit trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 More snowy places = less job prospects (as a general rule). I've been saying I want to move for a few years now but it's easier said than done. Interesting statement. That sounds right though. If you can create a job or work a job that involves snow, then your in business!!! Anyway; March, I think it will have a few surprises. Maybe both severe weather and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I personally cannot wait for the cold weather to go away. Bring on the warmth and tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I could go for a March 2010 redux. This winter is a dud and nothing is going to change that. Might as well put it behind me and wait for 2012-13. March-April-May 2010 redux will work for me. July in April would certainly be nice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 More snowy places = less job prospects (as a general rule). I've been saying I want to move for a few years now but it's easier said than done. North Dakota has 3% unemployment. McDonalds restaurants are even paying $15/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 This system after the Tuesday/Wednesday one is looking more favorable for a svr event with each run of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the complete lack of frost depth, lack of snow cover and warmer lakes (even several of the inland lake have limited/no ice cover) affect things the first 1/2 of spring (March into mid-April). Warm fronts may have an easier time surging northward. I am so used to the getting hung up in the OV and then completely stalling south of MI. Hopefully severe weather/t-storm outbreaks will have a better chance further north into the GLs this spring. Right now the -PNA, +AO, +NAO combo would suggest the GLs might get into the early spring action (normally IMBY I have to wait until May before getting to the springtime t-storm action). I still would not be surprised for a major snow storm and/or ice storm this spring. Winters like this seem to have one or two tricks left in them. I know cold is not done with us just yet. As I have alluded to often, a majority of mild winters feature cold springs with big spring snowstorms. Ive been feeling that this year too. Makes you wonder, it seems the lack of frost-depth and snowcover didnt seem to hinder cold blasts in those years. But then you look at some other years like the nations infamous "year without a winter" of 1877-78, the torch continued and in fact accelerated in March and April. This is the much less common scenario when looking at past mild winters, but certainly plausible and has happened more than once. Then you have things like March 1973...we were torching our way to the warmest March ever (still stands as 5th warmest mar btw) until being slammed with an epic snowstorm on St Paddys day (10" at DTW but I think 18-20" near FNT or MBS). Same in '83, March was torching away after a snowless winter until we were slammed with 6-12" on the first day of spring, another 3-6" storm Apr 17th, and record lows in May (actually had a record low the night I was born ). So regardless of how March starts, long ways to go with snowstorm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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