StormJr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Interesting wording from SPC regarding freezing rain potential around the metro this evening: SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS -- E.G. NAM/ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF THE SREF/RUC -- AS WELL AS HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF MODEL OUTPUT ARE HAVING DIFFICULTLY RESOLVING THE COMPLEX SFC TEMPERATURE FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OBSERVED. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THIS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES RAIN WOULD OCCUR WHILE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MIXED PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY. FURTHERMORE...FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SFC LOW MOVES NEWD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN BECOMING OF INCREASING CONCERN AFTER 23Z CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. Temperatures are still hovering 30-32 around here. Could get nasty if temperatures don't rise above freezing. Temperatures aloft are certainly warm enough for liquid (I've already seen liquid precip). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 sleet just started here, coming down at a good clip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 sleet just started here, coming down at a good clip Completely off-topic, but were you in Prinsburg back in Nov '01 for the storm that put down nearly 30" in Willmar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nasty out here. Dews are in the upper 40s...it feels muggy. Anyways, t-storms are popping all around us...MCD just went up. i was just checking out the radar and was popping in here to ask if you were getting t-storms...cool system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Completely off-topic, but were you in Prinsburg back in Nov '01 for the storm that put down nearly 30" in Willmar? Sure was, i had 22" here in prinsburg...that was insane. I think the nam or eta it was called back then nailed that one if i remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 33 degrees and rain here. Disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 32 here with sleet/snow...roads getting slushy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 i was just checking out the radar and was popping in here to ask if you were getting t-storms...cool system Check this thread. I put a picture in there of some storms forming to the NE. http://www.americanw...99#entry1413699 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Sure was, i had 22" here in prinsburg...that was insane. I think the nam or eta it was called back then nailed that one if i remember correctly. Nice, I remember being quite jealous of that one. My brother send a pic from Minnetonka with a nice glaze. Looks like temps are very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice, I remember being quite jealous of that one. My brother send a pic from Minnetonka with a nice glaze. Looks like temps are very borderline. I had alot of sleet, some freezing rain then about an 1" of heavy wet snow in the last 2hrs...back to light rain now, temp at 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Check this thread. I put a picture in there of some storms forming to the NE. http://www.americanw...99#entry1413699 awesome pic, baro. i thought i read a report of a tornado somewhere near LBF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 awesome pic, baro. i thought i read a report of a tornado somewhere near LBF? Yeah a tor was spotted by an NWS off duty employee. He is sending us pics later. But there were other chasers/spotters on it too. Brief spin-up along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Heavy snow across northern NE. That early convection is wrapping into the upper low. 2" rates in south central SD via NWS Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Heavy snow across northern NE. That early convection is wrapping into the upper low. 2" rates in south central SD via NWS Rapid City. LBF don't have an advisory out for VTN area? CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSVALENTINE HVY SNOW 31 30 96 N16 29.46F VSB 1/4 WCI 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 LBF don't have an advisory out for VTN area? WWA just sent by the forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 02Z SmartCast just uploaded. Currently tracking areas in and around Watertown, SD to Chandler, MN to Brainerd Lakes, MN with the highest threats of weather. Seeing 6-10" of additional snowfall through 13Z with sporadic periods of snowfall rates up to 1.7" per hour possible across this region. Have areas across the Eastern SD, ND, and MN areas with 2-8" of additional snowfall through 13Z. For areas across the Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas areas see areas of severe weather possible with wind gusts up to 70 knots and hail up to 2.3" in diameter. Both http://smartwxmodel.net and http://smartwxmodel.net/MW.html have been updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z nam shifted the heavy snow band right over my area early in the morning...what do you think baro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 current report in st paul all rain and above freezing near hwy 5 and downtown from i-94 to maryland ave area, gradually mixing to more sleet than rain at my apt building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z nam shifted the heavy snow band right over my area early in the morning...what do you think baro? I think it is legit. That DMC is feeding directly into the upper PV/jet streak, this storm is stalling completely. Just issued the WSW across northern NE. This beast looks SICK on satellite. here is the PNS I just wrote.. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=lbf&product=pns&issuedby=LBF&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I noticed the 03z RUC model stalls the low in sw MN by tomorrow morning, whats going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 decent line of t-storms from near DSM to FOD attm. how far you guys think it heads together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I think it is legit. That DMC is feeding directly into the upper PV/jet streak, this storm is stalling completely. Just issued the WSW across northern NE. This beast looks SICK on satellite. here is the PNS I just wrote.. http://www.crh.noaa....on=1&glossary=0 nice writeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NWUS53 KLBF 290326 LSRLBF PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 926 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0923 PM HEAVY SNOW VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W 02/28/2012 E5.0 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. HEAVY SNOW IS STILL FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 decent line of t-storms from near DSM to FOD attm. how far you guys think it heads together? My uncle in SE Webster county had some small hail a bit ago. Just some gusty winds and rain here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 This storm is entering beast mode status as the upper PV keeps ingesting DMC across the WCB. Just sickening, in a good way. Classic config here. Surface low beginning to take on a bent-back config. ECMWF was right all along with this thing in terms of the stalled low and the rapid occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z nam shifted the heavy snow band right over my area early in the morning...what do you think baro? Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Where are you located? near prinsburg, sw of willmar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 near prinsburg, sw of willmar Well, here is hoping it is legit, I would love to get out and snowmobile in Buffalo this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nam has 1-2" hr snowfall rates starting around 3am here..hrrr/ruc about the same, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nam has 1-2" hr snowfall rates starting around 3am here..hrrr/ruc about the same, we shall see Lets hope this beast still has enough moisture to work with by 3 am to bring some significant snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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