prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You gonna get nailed by this.. prinsburg_wx? Not by snow, i think MPX is a little too generous with snow accum for my area...i'm more worried about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00Z nam looks to be coming in a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 00Z nam looks to be coming in a bit warmer Maybe a tick warmer into Nodak, but overall much the same. Torchy, no cold sector cold air to speak of. System doesn't deepen worth a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Maybe a tick warmer into Nodak, but overall much the same. Torchy, no cold sector cold air to speak of. System doesn't deepen worth a crap. Yea I jumped the gun a bit. I just noticed the northward extent of some of the warmer air had pushed a bit further north and surface temps in southern MN jumped several degrees during the afternoon, but that's probably a product of later precip arrival. Overall looks fairly similar for the "battle zone" down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pretty much the nail in the coffin for all of southern MN unless something freakish happens. Central into northern MN another story...also eastern and southern Nodak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 RGEM has 43 at MSP on Wednesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pretty much the nail in the coffin for all of southern MN unless something freakish happens. Central into northern MN another story...also eastern and southern Nodak. MPX will probably trim another row or 2 of counties on their southern end of the winter storm warning. 0z ukm still colder & a little south of it's 12z run so maybe the euro will still hold onto it's colder solution...won't make much difference anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 RGEM has 43 at MSP on Wednesday AM. I have a REALLY hard time believing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Roon the RGEM has been known to have some jacked runs. I really don't think its possible you see 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not to get off topic, but what is the likelihood we see another storm Friday? The models seem to be mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 EURO says yes so don't say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not to get off topic, but what is the likelihood we see another storm Friday? The models seem to be mixed. depends on phasing but looking less likely right now but i wouldn't trust any model outside 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 no longer a near miss, pretty much a huge miss here, don't expect anything. Way north of original estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not to get off topic, but what is the likelihood we see another storm Friday? The models seem to be mixed. Highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 euro qpf GFK WED 06Z 29-FEB -1.6 -3.5 1009 82 100 0.04 543 536 WED 12Z 29-FEB -3.1 -5.4 1003 90 100 0.47 538 535 WED 18Z 29-FEB -2.7 -7.4 1002 88 99 0.35 535 533 THU 00Z 01-MAR -1.9 -7.7 1003 89 94 0.07 535 532 THU 06Z 01-MAR -4.3 -8.5 1005 93 91 0.02 535 531 THU 12Z 01-MAR -4.6 -8.1 1006 94 71 0.02 535 530 MSP TUE 18Z 28-FEB 0.4 -1.9 1021 63 96 0.02 555 538 WED 00Z 29-FEB -0.1 1.9 1014 78 97 0.04 553 542 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.1 1.3 1005 92 100 0.33 548 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 1.3 0.5 993 96 81 0.32 535 541 WED 18Z 29-FEB 0.9 -5.1 990 88 98 0.09 528 536 THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.5 -5.2 996 93 96 0.10 532 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR -0.9 -6.9 1004 89 84 0.03 538 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Weaker and cruddier than early thought, but honestly, still a ripping storm. Does well for northern MN and the true weather hole...Grand Forks, ND. NAM IR brightness temps show a classic mature PV bomb cyclone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Quick 07Z SmartCast run, showing a variety of weather across MN down to KS. Updated the MN Smartcast page, http://smartwxmodel.net/MW.html,'>http://smartwxmodel.net/MW.html, with my latest output. A messy scenario with areas of FZRA to areas of Heavy Snow, I am seeing snowfall rates upwards of 1.8" in Central MN and into NE SD. Will get a better handle once the data gets into the 12-hour zone. All other areas are updated at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Expect explosive development Tuesday afternoon-evening with heaviest snow across east-central SD into eastern ND and central MN, amounts 15-20 inches trending to 8 inches near Manitoba border and 3 inches for Winnipeg. Southeast MN could start as rain, trend back to ice pellets or freezing rain and then snow, as storm rapidly loses warm sector, something of a back-door cold front sort of evolution (winds backing SE to NE) could bring the whole spectrum of precip types to Twin Cities with considerable thunder and lightning across southern MN, much of IA, s WI and n IL. Some heavy to borderline severe storms likely in IA and MO but more of a heavy rainfall than strong wind producer. Some very high snowfall totals in central MN partially lake enhanced, bursts of thunder-snow likely. This will easily be the storm of the winter for the lower 48. Storm then fades out as Pacific low races east to hold front up and this may give a further 2-5 inches of snow on Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Expect explosive development Tuesday afternoon-evening with heaviest snow across east-central SD into eastern ND and central MN, amounts 15-20 inches trending to 8 inches near Manitoba border and 3 inches for Winnipeg. Southeast MN could start as rain, trend back to ice pellets or freezing rain and then snow, as storm rapidly loses warm sector, something of a back-door cold front sort of evolution (winds backing SE to NE) could bring the whole spectrum of precip types to Twin Cities with considerable thunder and lightning across southern MN, much of IA, s WI and n IL. Some heavy to borderline severe storms likely in IA and MO but more of a heavy rainfall than strong wind producer. Some very high snowfall totals in central MN partially lake enhanced, bursts of thunder-snow likely. This will easily be the storm of the winter for the lower 48. Storm then fades out as Pacific low races east to hold front up and this may give a further 2-5 inches of snow on Thursday night into Friday. Storm of the winter across the CONUS is a bit of a stretch, but top 10, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Had a quick burst of snow this morning, depositing about 1/4-1/2" of snow. Since 930 it's just been flurries. Looks like the real precip is coming in fast though. Will be interesting to see what the precip starts as. Seeing all phases of precip type being reported. Currently 31.8 F IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This is going to be real interesting. Sitting pretty much right on the line between delight and fail here in the north. What is pathetic is it still is probably going to be the biggest performer of the winter here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 1/2" down here, looks like it will come to an end soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Heavy snow still looking like Saint Cloud and points north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Heavy snow still looking like Saint Cloud and points north? Heavy snow looks to set up even north of St Cloud. While the Cities sees mainly rain this evening, STC may have an extended period of freezing rain/sleet/snow mixture. Might have to go Little Falls northward to get all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN/CNTRL MN...FAR NWRN IA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 281743Z - 282245Z WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN SD...SWRN/CNTRL MN...AND FAR NWRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 1.5-2 MB PER 2 HRS ACROSS THE AREA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE ALONG WITH INCREASING DCVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM SW NEB/NE CO/NWRN KS. CORRESPONDING ASCENT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...SERN SD...IA...AND SRN MN. AS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES NWD/NEWD ATOP THE SFC LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-0C WET BULB TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN AFTER 1830Z WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA MAINTAINS A PROMINENT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB FEATURING TEMPERATURES AROUND 3C. STABLY STRATIFIED LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SFC FREEZING LINE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME OWING TO THE WAA...SUPPORTING A PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF E-CNTRL SD...FAR NWRN IA...AND SWRN MN MAINLY AFTER 2030Z...WHILE FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A THREAT FARTHER NORTH. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RATES INVOF DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS /WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE OWING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J PER KG/. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO NERN SD AND W-CNTRL MN AFTER 2200Z...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES -- I.E. AROUND 2C -- SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18z nam shifted south some at 24..bringing better chances of some accumulation down to my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 282025Z - 282300Z STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Snow started IMBY at around 1pm. Nice large flakes. Had to come to the office in a southern suburb and it's now drizzling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I didn't get squat with the first batch of precip but heavy precip rapidly moving ne out of se SD so should have rain or a mix here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nasty out here. Dews are in the upper 40s...it feels muggy. Anyways, t-storms are popping all around us...MCD just went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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