prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 No I am not trolling at all. MSP deserves a dumping. I was just pointing out that the trend in the model runs is in the wrong direction. The EURO could easily still be on board and the there have been alot of late south trender this winter. I admit, i'm pissed at the trends so i apologize if i took some of your comments the wrong way. Models are still all over the place but it's not looking good for msp & s MN for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 euro is still colder than the gfs & ggem...it must occlude faster. MSP is at freezing at the surface & 850 for most of the event. ABR 0.56 DLH 1.47 FAR 0.68 FSD 1.46 GFK 0.71 LSE 0.78 MKT 0.92 MSP 0.96 RST 0.79 STC 1.39 VTN 0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On the warm side of the storm SPC has a slight risk area in s NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Going to be a mess, and less snow for MSP I think, sleet at the least, more likely rani nosing in for a large portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Going to be a mess, and less snow for MSP I think, sleet at the least, more likely rani nosing in for a large portion of the event. Yeah, mpx hinting at throwing in the towel on snow amounts for s MN cwa. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1224 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012 .UPDATE...STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS ON THE UPCOMING STORM. NOT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT A CHANGE IN THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL PROBABLY MAKE A FEW CHANGES IN SNOW AMOUNTS IN UPDATED FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 WCCO calling for 1/4"+ of ice before the snow starts, I hope to god it stays cold enough for all snow. 1/4"+ of ice....YIKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 don't like how FSD, the National weather service out of eastern South Dakota goes and issues warnings before other regions and before they know the exact track then ends up cancelling them. Granted it's a hard storm to predict but still the other NOAA areas didn't bother with warnings so early on. They stuck with watches until they were sure what was going on. FSD issues and ends up cancelling warnings too often. Predicting snowfall amounts in the forecasts so far ahead of time doesn't help things. It only makes it irritating when the storm inevidably does not produce what they predicted, which is almost always. Then we'll get 4 inches when they aren't even predicting much more then an inch. That's the way of things. : ) FSD is still sticking with a dumping here as they have for the past 2 days despite other models suggesting it will be north. If we get it I'll post and applaude them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 WCCO calling for 1/4"+ of ice before the snow starts, I hope to god it stays cold enough for all snow. 1/4"+ of ice....YIKES! I just don't see that happening, I really think the models are overestimating the warm side of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 don't like how FSD, the National weather service out of eastern South Dakota goes and issues warnings before other regions and before they know the exact track then ends up cancelling them. Granted it's a hard storm to predict but still the other NOAA areas didn't bother with warnings so early on. They stuck with watches until they were sure what was going on. FSD issues and ends up cancelling warnings too often. Predicting snowfall amounts in the forecasts so far ahead of time doesn't help things. It only makes it irritating when the storm inevidably does not produce what they predicted, which is almost always. Then we'll get 4 inches when they aren't even predicting much more then an inch. That's the way of things. : ) They are predicting the mix to take place overnight, for that to hold true it would have to have a pretty significant warm side to it. I really don't think the models have a good handle on this storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I just don't see that happening, I really think the models are overestimating the warm side of this thing. I'm thinking the same thing, but thought i would mention what the twin cities broadcast meteorologists are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 WCCO calling for 1/4"+ of ice before the snow starts, I hope to god it stays cold enough for all snow. 1/4"+ of ice....YIKES! Latest day 2 HPC snow/ice map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Latest day 2 HPC snow/ice map I am interested in your opinion, do you buy into how strong the models are portraying the warm side of this storm to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I am interested in your opinion, do you buy into how strong the models are portraying the warm side of this storm to be? The warming in the models are probably legit as the system is slowing and that gives more time for the warmer air to make it north...i'm not totally sold on the L tracking north of FSD to MSP, seems kind of odd for a late feb storm but then again this is an odd winter. The system is still off the coast and maybe not totally sampled well yet, 0z runs tonight should clear alot of issues up though. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 guess no snow lovers here in southern MN likes the 18Z NAM run? damn, talk about blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Curious to see how far south MPX will issue winter storm warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 MPX still consistent with totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 guess no snow lovers here in southern MN likes the 18Z NAM run? damn, talk about blowtorch. If msp is a miss with snow for the upcoming storm, MPX says you will have another shot on friday IN THE EXTENDED SYSNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS REASONABLY GOOD IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. SOLUTION DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHER SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREE ON MUCH SLOWER EVOLUTION WHILE LIFTING THE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD. OVERALL...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KANSAS CITY TO MINNEAPOLIS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Curious to see how far south MPX will issue winter storm warnings... Looks like north of Redwood Falls are either winter storm or blizzard warnings, south of that is a winter weather advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sioux Falls already cancelled some winter storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The local MN news outlets seem to think the warm air is going to play a pretty big role. I tend to think they put to much faith in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The local MN news outlets seem to think the warm air is going to play a pretty big role. I tend to think they put to much faith in the GFS. Rule #1 of forecasting: Do not wish cast. All of the major model guidance has trended warmer and further north with the track, not just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't give a damn what the other models are showing, i'm riding the 12z JMA...temps never go above 28, 1.36 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Rule #1 of forecasting: Do not wish cast. All of the major model guidance has trended warmer and further north with the track, not just the GFS. Yeah you are right, and one must look into why the north track, and in this case it is legitimate and realistic given the setup and the upper level config. I can't say it enough, lack of arctic air across the cold sector will limit deepening rate...resulting in a farther N warm front and stronger height falls northward. The occlusion takes much longer to sufficiently cool the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Rule #1 of forecasting: Do not wish cast. All of the major model guidance has trended warmer and further north with the track, not just the GFS. The low has not even made landfall yet. I am simply stating that I don't really buy into how significant the models are saying the warm side of this system will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't give a damn what the other models are showing, i'm riding the 12z JMA...temps never go above 28, 1.36 qpf LOL, I like your thinking! The 18z NAM and GFS were rather disheartening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 LOL, I like your thinking! The 18z NAM and GFS were rather disheartening... LOL, it's a bummer thats for sure but we might get everything with this storm...rain/sleet/snow/frz rain & wind/thunder...i'm pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah you are right, and one must look into why the north track, and in this case it is legitimate and realistic given the setup and the upper level config. I can't say it enough, lack of arctic air across the cold sector will limit deepening rate...resulting in a farther N warm front and stronger height falls northward. The occlusion takes much longer to sufficiently cool the low levels. Completely agree here. Such a meteorological domino effect, it's crazy. 2-3 days ago, the airmass behind the Sunday system was progged much colder allowing for the stronger baroclinic zone, deeper system, quicker occlusion, further south track, more snow here. Now it's a warmer airmass to the north of the system than progged, weaker baroclinic zone, weaker system, slower occlusion, height falls north, warmer air north, rain/sleet. As a snow lover I hate it. As a meteorologist, it's fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 MPX cwa outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You gonna get nailed by this.. prinsburg_wx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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