MnWeatherman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hope the GFS just made a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hope the GFS just made a bad run euro is colder than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 ECM qpf...temps all below freezing at msp through the event. ABR 0.97 DLH 0.97 GFK 0.63 LSE 0.87 MSP 1.12 MKT 1.00 RST 0.90 VTN 0.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hope the GFS just made a bad run euro dumps 1.48 around the willmar/olivia area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 ECM qpf...temps all below freezing at msp through the event. ABR 0.97 DLH 0.97 GFK 0.63 LSE 0.87 MSP 1.12 MKT 1.00 RST 0.90 VTN 0.65 ECMWF remains S, still favors the lead anomaly ejecting S. It hasn't wavered in that regard for the last 3 days. Synoptically all the globals are nearly identical...really the small difference comes in whether they favor a northward ejection or south. Tiny differences yield rather large differences in advective processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 ECMWF remains S, still favors the lead anomaly ejecting S. It hasn't wavered in that regard for the last 3 days. Synoptically all the globals are nearly identical...really the small difference comes in whether they favor a northward ejection or south. Tiny differences yield rather large differences in advective processes. Like i've said before, i'm glad i'm not a forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 euro is colder than the gfs true, but it warmer as a trend vs previous runs. so it looks like not as much cold air to work with as previously thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 true, but it warmer as a trend vs previous runs. so it looks like not as much cold air to work with as previously thought. good point...maybe next friday we'll do this all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Phil...your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Phil...your thoughts? From what I can tell, the ECWMF still remains primarily southward of the GFS solution and its also slightly stronger. This results in a tighter temperature gradient at 850 hPa and we end up with warm seclusion which keeps the majority of Minnesota below freezing through the entire profile before the WAA is able to break into the State. The weaker GFS takes longer for the WAA to completely cutoff from the southerly flow, and we are left with a large swath of southern MN changing over to sleet/freezing rain or even rain for a period of time. However, the majority of the really intense precipitation should remain north of this boundary so it might be more important to follow the QPF zones rather than where the 0 degree isotherm is. At this juncture I'm still supporting the ECMWF although its a very tricky forecast considering minor shifts could cause huge variations in the final snowfall/precipitation totals. The biggest winners look to be St. Cloud, MN northeastward into Duluth, MN in terms of max snowfall with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 From what I can tell, the ECWMF still remains primarily southward of the GFS solution and its also slightly stronger. However, This results in a tighter temperature gradient at 850 hPa and we end up with warm seclusion which keeps the majority of Minnesota below freezing through the entire profile before the WAA is able to break into the State. The weaker GFS takes longer for the WAA to completely cutoff from the southerly flow, and we are left with a large swath of southern MN changing over to sleet/freezing rain or even rain for a period of time. However, the majority of the really intense precipitation should remain north of this boundary so it might be more important to follow the QPF zones rather than where the 0 degree isotherm is. At this juncture I'm still supporting the ECMWF although its a very tricky forecast considering minor shifts could cause huge variations in the final snowfall/precipitation totals. The biggest winners look to be St. Cloud, MN northeastward into Duluth, MN in terms of max snowfall with this event. Thanks bud, I agree fully regarding the reasons for the rather large differences. Deepening rate (also PV ejection latitude/placement) is key here as an occlusion is needed to keep the warm front from spoiling the party. ECMWF has not budged from a S ejection and a slightly faster deepening rate (compared to GFS). Big difference is GFS supports a stronger WAA process and forces stronger height falls northward...tracking a tick N as well. Tiny differences here...but the results are large. Difficult to make definitive calls here with the 50 mile differences in PV ejection....but hard to forecast against the EC/ECENS regarding such feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Kinda off topic, but the euro has another system in the same area around 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So far the NAM looks toasty for alot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So far the NAM looks toasty for alot of people. 'Torch' here in MSP. Looks like the +3 850T isotherm is across the MSP metro, with the 0C near or even north of STC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z GFS, North. And warmer for MSP. Disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z GFS, North. And warmer for MSP. Disgusting. Man, I thought MSP was in the prime spot 24-36 hours ago. Now this thing is looking more and more like a frost sucker for you guys too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 A lot can change still.The GFS is not always accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 A lot can change still.The GFS is not always accurate. Agreed, but the trend this morning is definetly in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 F&%! this winter. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We still need the moisture badly, so I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Agreed, but the trend this morning is definetly in this direction. The Euro still stays cold does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 models are still far apart, 12z cmc takes the L from e SD to N WI at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The Euro still stays cold does it not? The Euro has been sucking eggs. Game over for anyone south of St. Cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The Euro has been sucking eggs. Game over for anyone south of St. Cloud. I don't know if I would go that far. This last storm on Sunday the GFS was way off on snowfall totals. Lots of northern MN saw over a foot. To look at a model and say this is what is going to happen is just silly. The only thing that is for sure is that there is a lot of moisture with this storm and all the remains to be seen is just how warm it will get in MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My nerves are so used and abused by this farce of a winter I can't stay positive about a thing. Bring on spring. MPX is already updating their FB page, "oops". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't know if I would go that far. This last storm on Sunday the GFS was way off on snowfall totals. Lots of northern MN saw over a foot. To look at a model and say this is what is going to happen is just silly. The only thing that is for sure is that there is a lot of moisture with this storm and all the remains to be seen is just how warm it will get in MSP. Well so far the NAM, GFS, and Canadian are not on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well so far the NAM, GFS, and Canadian are not on your side. NAM & GFS still give some snow to msp but not as much as earlier thought. Shift south in future runs then it's all different again so i hope your not trolling or digging on a msp miss as we sure as hell know that LSE/RST will be too far south for this event for snow. Snow or Rain, this storm will help ease the drought conditions some in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM & GFS still give some snow to msp but not as much as earlier thought. Shift south in future runs then it's all different again so i hope your not trolling or digging on a msp miss as we sure as hell know that LSE/RST will be too far south for this event for snow. Snow or Rain, this storm will help ease the drought conditions some in MN. No I am not trolling at all. MSP deserves a dumping. I was just pointing out that the trend in the model runs is in the wrong direction. The EURO could easily still be on board and the there have been alot of late south trender this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well so far the NAM, GFS, and Canadian are not on your side. The NAM, GFS, and Canadian models are not even on their own side. They change more often than Charlie Sheen's personalities. The Euro has been pretty consistent in its predictions. I still like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 All I am really hoping for is that the Monticello/Buffalo area gets dumped on...I really need to get out and use my snowmobiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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