prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 MSP TUE 18Z 28-FEB -0.3 -4.6 1022 51 100 0.01 553 535 WED 00Z 29-FEB -0.5 -4.7 1013 71 99 0.05 550 539 WED 06Z 29-FEB -1.8 -6.3 1006 84 100 0.23 543 539 WED 12Z 29-FEB -2.0 -7.2 1001 87 95 0.33 535 534 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.8 -8.6 1004 80 98 0.11 534 531 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.5 -9.8 1009 82 75 0.05 538 530 THU 06Z 01-MAR -6.1 -9.8 1013 90 77 0.01 541 531 STC TUE 18Z 28-FEB -2.4 -6.0 1022 64 100 0.04 552 534 WED 00Z 29-FEB -2.1 -6.7 1014 79 100 0.10 548 537 WED 06Z 29-FEB -2.2 -7.2 1007 86 99 0.30 543 537 WED 12Z 29-FEB -2.9 -7.9 1004 89 100 0.48 535 532 WED 18Z 29-FEB -2.5 -9.8 1007 79 97 0.29 536 530 THU 00Z 01-MAR -3.0 -10.3 1011 81 84 0.04 539 530 THU 06Z 01-MAR -7.4 -10.6 1015 89 87 0.01 542 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 ECMWF and GFS are pretty much right on top of each other, track wise. Yeah they did generally come inline. I expect there will be "wobbles" in track as we get close, especially when the phase completes and the system is sampled by RAOB...things will prolly change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly S of the op, but really the differences are tiny. Dealing with a very tricky scenario here as the lead anomaly will need to deepen at the perfect time...and eject at the right latitude or the front lifts farther N, the low tracks farther N as well since warm advective processes will force stronger height falls farther N, and snow switches to sleet/rain farther N. An ideal ejection would force strong enough low level height falls/dynamic induced cooling to occlude quick enough so the warm front doesn't lift as far N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 MPX unleashes the WSW. 447 WWUS43 KMPX 260938 WSWMPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 338 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 ..A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY THEN SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... .A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORRIS... TO ST. CLOUD... TO MORA IN MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES NEAR ALEXANDRIA... LITTLE FALLS AND MORA... WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM MORRIS... TO SAINT CLOUD... TO MILACA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE DAKOTAS. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... THEN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW... FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITIES. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL... CENTRAL... SOUTH CENTRAL... AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY MORNING... AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE STORM WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY... AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITES METRO AREA TO RED WING... WITH RAIN POSSIBLE FOR A TIME NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CANBY THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY... AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE IS NOT YET CERTAIN. IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH... THEN A GREATER AMOUNT OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE STORM TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK... THEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MNZ041>045-047>050-055-261745- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0002.120228T1800Z-120301T0000Z/ /O.EXT.KMPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120227T0000Z/ DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS- BENTON-SWIFT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE... LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD... FOLEY...BENSON 338 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EVENING... ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. * MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TEN INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. * OTHER IMPACTS...ROADWAYS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TODAY... ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS... UNTREATED ROADS... AND BRIDGES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW OCCUR THEN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12z ECM qpf ABR 1.66 DLH 0.80 GFK 0.66 FAR 1.35 FSD 1.00 MSP 0.96 RST 0.83 LSE 0.69 VTN 0.90 YYZ 0.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ok Toronto...if you want ECMWF data please PM or keep it in the proper forum from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just updated SmartCast for the MN/WA area, focusing on the 28-29th. Full output uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/MW.html Currently tracking 29/02Z to 09Z with snowfall rates of 2" per hour across the MSP and STC areas. Pushing out 3-hourly updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This system will develop two vort maxes phasing together on the West Coast. 2/27 at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is wierd to see the NAM so much cooler than the GFS in this time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 BIS & FGF have issued Blizzard Watches for part of their CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 309 PM CST SUN FEB 26 201 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MNZ001>003-NDZ024-026>030-038-039-292115- /O.NEW.KFGF.BZ.A.0001.120228T1200Z-120301T0000Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120227T0900Z/ WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE- TRAILL-BARNES-CASS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS... HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS... COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY MORNING. * FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW COULD RESULT IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN OPEN COUNTRY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR TAPERING TO AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. * THIS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST STORM SO FAR THIS WINTER SO MAKE PLANS NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is wierd to see the NAM so much cooler than the GFS in this time range No kidding. 18z NAM....1.54" liquid, all snow at MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 MPX has upgraded to a Blizzard Watch for their western coverage area. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 322 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 MNZ041-042-047-048-054>056-064-270530- /O.CAN.KMPX.WS.A.0002.120228T1800Z-120301T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.120228T1800Z-120301T0000Z/ DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA- YELLOW MEDICINE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS... GLENWOOD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...GRANITE FALLS 322 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL MAY OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY BRING TRAVEL TO A HALT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 stay south damn you! I work wednesday so I can't drive up to watertown where they are assured a real dumping. http://www.crh.noaa....=stormtotalsnow Out here driving 50 miles to hit different precip types is nothing with the north south interstate, and I've been known to do it before. Looks like this will be a textbook case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here is our version of the WSW. We are on the edge. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 320 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 ..POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA .A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FURTHER EAST...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. NEZ004>006-008-094-271000- /O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0002.120228T1200Z-120229T1200Z/ SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BROWN-WESTERN CHERRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE... SPRINGVIEW...AINSWORTH...CODY...MERRIMAN...KILGORE 320 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 /220 PM MST SUN FEB 26 2012/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW OR RAIN WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE AS STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. * WIND...NORTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME QUITE DIFFICULT AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. NEZ007-009-010-271000- /O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0002.120229T0000Z-120229T1800Z/ BOYD-ROCK-HOLT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPENCER...BASSETT...ONEILL 320 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. * WIND...NORTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME QUITE DIFFICULT AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TAYLOR/AHSENMACHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 so far so good. http://www.crh.noaa....ry.php?site=fsd still until the other computer models shift south I'll assume that I'm going to get 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet and freezing rain. I live by the letter 'n' in 8 to 16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 MPX take on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 so far so good. http://www.crh.noaa....ry.php?site=fsd still until the other computer models shift south I'll assume that I'm going to get 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet and freezing rain. I live by the letter 'n' in 8 to 16 inches. You are in transition zone, no doubt. I am not as convinced this system is going to "bomb" out and deepen quite as fast as we originally thought it may...it is lacking the cold air across the cold sector. A couple days ago 850 t's were progged to be -16C...now we are looking at -7C. Not as much potential energy...and I think that warm air will wrap into the system across your area. A lot of sleet possible with a change over to snow late. Watch for S trends with the surface low...that is what you would want for all snow. Either way going to be an exciting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 MPX take on the storm I think that is pretty good and realistic take with this storm. Not hyping anything and giving realistic estimates, seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 0z GFS/UKM/CMC all have the L at or near sioux falls, sd at hr 60...looks warmer too so maybe looking at rain for the good part of the event around my area...NAM would be my best bet for heavy snow. Oh well, need the moisture no matter what form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 looking at the 00Z models now, talk about a difference for the twin cities. the NAM is going mainly snow, risk sleet. the GFS making it warm enough for freezing rain and even regular rain for a time. wonder what the GFS found to make it that warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 looking at the 00Z models now, talk about a difference for the twin cities. the NAM is going mainly snow, risk sleet. the GFS making it warm enough for freezing rain and even regular rain for a time. wonder what the GFS found to make it that warm... A couple things...big downtrend in how much cold air this first system advected southward behind it. Also, guidance, over the past 4 days, have slowed the ejection down...so, there is a longer period of southward advection...scouring out what cold air there is across the plains...so the front lifts farther N and the low tracks farther N as well. The biggie is the less cold air means less potential energy...so the system doesn't bomb out and stall...and there is less "dynamic" induced cooling via low level mass ascent/convergence since deepening is slower...so low level thermals are a tad warmer. It is an additive effect...also feedback effect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 canadian global model panel, 850 hPa, t+60. (courtesy environment canada's vizaweb interface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 The big winner here, with a northward and weaker track, is southeastern Nodak, unfortunately the big loser here is much of southern MN and portions of SE SD. Twin Cities may be bisected with huge total differences. Tough forecast for the local mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Quite honestly, if you want to pin this down to "why" the changes, it mostly comes down to one thing...lack of cold air within the CCB. Less cold air reduces potential energy which reduces deepening rate/strength. This eventually feeds back to many other things including track, low level thermals and ptypes, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The big winner here, with a northward and weaker track, is southeastern Nodak, unfortunately the big loser here is much of southern MN and portions of SE SD. Twin Cities may be bisected with huge total differences. Tough forecast for the local mets. Spring & thunderstorms can't get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Quite honestly, if you want to pin this down to "why" the changes, it mostly comes down to one thing...lack of cold air within the CCB. Less cold air reduces potential energy which reduces deepening rate/strength. This eventually feeds back to many other things including track, low level thermals and ptypes, etc. most definitely. and let's face it, there hasn't been a real deep cPk or cP airmass over the midwest this winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 most definitely. and let's face it, there hasn't been a real deep cPk or cP airmass over the midwest this winter to date. Total agreement there. We only had one "real" arctic dump back in January with the classic shallow but extreme cold air mass, otherwise it has been junk. This storm just has no cold air to work with. Nonetheless, it is still highly impressive, lol, it just seems like a minor letdown because it has huge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Total agreement there. We only had one "real" arctic dump back in January with the classic shallow but extreme cold air mass, otherwise it has been junk. This storm just has no cold air to work with. Nonetheless, it is still highly impressive, lol, it just seems like a minor letdown because it has huge potential. agreed. this is no storm to mess with, and we have more another 24-36 hours before we really call blowtorch for southern MN. but the wind potential is still there, and whoever gets the big snow will also have blowing/drifting concerns and near whiteouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Spring & thunderstorms can't get here soon enough. Agreed. If its going to snow..just snow. But I think this will just be another 1-3 slush event for us. The NAM is the only model that differs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Interesting threat across Nodak for blowing snow...the new fluff is going to blow easily...plus additional that they get. Ground blizzards can become epic up there quite easily since the wind blows for miles with no obstructions or trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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