baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 What is new. GFS caved to the ECMWF and takes a slower track farther S. Occludes faster...thermals will be closer across portions of central and southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 What is new. GFS caved to the ECMWF and takes a slower track farther S. Occludes faster...thermals will be closer across portions of central and southern MN. Do you see this going too much further south than what the ECM shows right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Do you see this going too much further south than what the ECM shows right now? I think there is a possibility it may go even farther S, it depends on exactly where the PV ejects the Rockies. ECMWF has taken slight steps S the last 2 days, but nothing major. I did notice the 12Z was exact to the 0Z last night, so the trend southward may have stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I need to watch this because of the possible ice threat although I doubt it'll be a major ice storm since temps will go above freezing on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I think there is a possibility it may go even farther S, it depends on exactly where the PV ejects the Rockies. ECMWF has taken slight steps S the last 2 days, but nothing major. I did notice the 12Z was exact to the 0Z last night, so the trend southward may have stopped. thanks...i hope your not talking no big jump south to screw MN altogether but i guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 thanks...i hope your not talking no big jump south to screw MN altogether but i guess we shall see. I think both you and I would enjoy another slight tick southward. I don't have specifics from the 18z GFS yet, but it looks like a stripe of >1.50" liquid from SW MN through the metro, with a bullseye of >1.75" liquid over the metro. Looks colder than the 12z, but the 0C 850 line straddles the metro for about 12 hours during the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 I need to watch this because of the possible ice threat although I doubt it'll be a major ice storm since temps will go above freezing on Tuesday. thanks...i hope your not talking no big jump south to screw MN altogether but i guess we shall see. Yaeh I am in agreement...a tick S wouldn't hurt at all. For now thiough, I am still not latching onto any one solution yet...I have seen it before with phased systems offshore that models will seemingly "latch" on to a solution only to change again after the system phsaes and comes onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I think both you and I would enjoy another slight tick southward. I don't have specifics from the 18z GFS yet, but it looks like a stripe of >1.50" liquid from SW MN through the metro, with a bullseye of >1.75" liquid over the metro. Looks colder than the 12z, but the 0C 850 line straddles the metro for about 12 hours during the heaviest precip. 18z GFS cobb data has MSP 2.30" with 30 inches of snow...fwiw though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 18z GFS cobb data has MSP 2.30" with 30 inches of snow...fwiw though don't mind me asking here, but what grids are you looking at to get 2.3" liquid? the ones i am seeing at Tx A&M are saying 0.84" QPF for msp, and wxcaster doesn't have anything for the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 18z GFS cobb data has MSP 2.30" with 30 inches of snow...fwiw though Just saw that. The warmer air aloft can't be much further south, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTW Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 don't mind me asking here, but what grids are you looking at to get 2.3" liquid? the ones i am seeing at Tx A&M are saying 0.84" QPF for msp, and wxcaster doesn't have anything for the 18Z GFS. It especially wouldn't make sense considering the 12Z GFS run only spits out 4.4" of snow for MSP. 1.62" liquid, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Do the model runs account for the deep snowpack in SD and Iowa when dealing with possible WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 don't mind me asking here, but what grids are you looking at to get 2.3" liquid? the ones i am seeing at Tx A&M are saying 0.84" QPF for msp, and wxcaster doesn't have anything for the 18Z GFS. Ewall through 84 hours with total precip bottom right. Continues for another 6 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Do the model runs account for the deep snowpack in SD and Iowa when dealing with possible WAA? They try, but numerical models certainly do ingest, as best as possible, snow data into their assimilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 It especially wouldn't make sense considering the 12Z GFS run only spits out 4.4" of snow for MSP. 1.62" liquid, though 12Z GFS was developing the system MUCh differently though...similar to the GGEM lifting the warm front clear through. 18Z GFS was the first run handling this system like the ECMWF with an instant occlusion and the warm front never lifting N past southern MN. Soundings are all snow across the Twin Cities. This sounding is during peak precip on the GFS in the developing deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 ECMWF ensemble mean nearly identical to ECMWF...never lifts the warm front even into southern MN. Mean: Operational: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Wow I am in the game if the EURO wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wonder if part of the Dakotas could get 12" in 12 hours in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 From the looks of it 12 inches in 12 hours are possible in parts of the dakotas and minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 That tiny shift north on the 00z GFS brings warm air issues into southern MN again. Literally would bisect the Twin Cities with 2 feet+ northern, less than a foot southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 fwiw the 0z ukmet at 72..0z.cmc about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 0z GFS consistent at taking the L across s MN but it slowed some this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 ECMWF and GFS are pretty much right on top of each other, track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I agree its scary close. A slight bump northward from 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 ECMWF and GFS are pretty much right on top of each other, track wise. 0z euro came north of it's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 looks like GFK is back in on the euro...text data is slow coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Based off the 00z GFS, this would be quite the gradient across the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Based off the 00z GFS, this would be quite the gradient across the metro. I like the map for my area but it's damn close to getting shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I like the map for my area but it's damn close to getting shafted. Ditto. I'm SW metro. I'm curious what the Euro will show. I see the slight tick northward. Hopefully a tick back south at 12z. I have a pretty strong feeling that we'll end up with a period of wintry mix. It seems that during the 8 years I've lived here that if the transition zone is anywhere close to the metro, we always end up getting in it. We never 'luck out' and stay cold the entire time. Ah well. Got some time yet. Upper trough won't fully be on shore until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Ditto. I'm SW metro. I'm curious what the Euro will show. I see the slight tick northward. Hopefully a tick back south at 12z. I have a pretty strong feeling that we'll end up with a period of wintry mix. It seems that during the 8 years I've lived here that if the transition zone is anywhere close to the metro, we always end up getting in it. We never 'luck out' and stay cold the entire time. Ah well. Got some time yet. Upper trough won't fully be on shore until Monday. text data is running slow tonight so will post totals ect once it's finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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