baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 All the global guidance has now caved to the Euro and suggest a classic PV stretching event where there is essentially instant cyclogenesis/occlusion. The surface low stalls nearly immediately. GGEM stalls it near the IA/SD/MN border. 0Z GFS almost similar but has northern stream influence and is a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Here is the GGEM at 96 hours, very ECM like. Northern edge is going to be a close call, but the folks down S will do better since there will be instant occlusion. Western MN, portions of central MN, nerly all SD, and southern ND are smashed with this type of solution. Interested to see if the ECMWF keeps a southern ejection and deep sub 984 bent-back surface occlusion. ECMWF would be a classic surface bomb...GGEM close. I still don't think the GFS is deepening the storm enough given what else I see in the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 GFS PV map...you can see the northern stream influence a little better here. Something to watch as this shunts mid level (700) warm air advection and ridge building aloft...which weakens the system just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 GFS Dprog Dt beginning 0Z tonite --> 12Z run. Note the northern stream influence creeping in. Interested to see if this is something the ECMWF suggests as well. I will have to say that 00Z GFS run verbatim would be a bit of a shame since it didn't seem (until now) that the northern stream would play any role, but the GFS keeps creeping in more northern stream influence which squashes heights just a tad. GFS also has a rapid ejection and ejects it N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 I can already tell you based on the 72 hr charts from the ECMWF this won't be squashed like the GFS. Much slower and lacking northern stream junk through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 0z ECMWF has an area of 2"+ QPF SW of ABR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 don't necessarily have the ec grids available here for the twin cities, but the GFS are saying snow to rain, i'm extrapolating all snow before a cutoff at the same timeframe on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 don't necessarily have the ec grids available here for the twin cities, but the GFS are saying snow to rain, i'm extrapolating all snow before a cutoff at the same timeframe on the EC. MSP: TUE 12Z 28-FEB -4.1 -5.0 1030 52 100 0.01 555 532 TUE 18Z 28-FEB -1.5 -5.1 1024 51 98 0.01 554 535 WED 00Z 29-FEB -1.0 -3.1 1015 66 96 0.04 552 540 WED 06Z 29-FEB -1.8 -4.8 1008 86 100 0.43 546 539 WED 12Z 29-FEB -1.9 -6.5 1002 84 88 0.40 535 534 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.7 -8.8 1004 81 96 0.08 534 531 THU 00Z 01-MAR -3.1 -9.6 1009 82 89 0.05 537 530 THU 06Z 01-MAR -8.0 -10.1 1013 89 74 0.01 542 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 tyvm. a nice 9" of snow overnight. hope the runways will be cleared for my flight later wednesday to get to AVP, via ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NrnILStormChaser Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 We are just a few days away from meteorological spring and almost on cue Mother Nature is throwing us a bone. Over the past few runs, the GFS has shown a beefy system ejecting out of the plains and int0 NW IA. This is bringing in warm moist air up from the gulf into the Mid MS Valley. Without getting to in depth four days out, some decent warm air advection and associated dew points creep into the area. There would be a more substantial severe weather threat if we could get a better moisture return. I am not to thrilled about capping either but this is still way out in the crystal ball to pin down specifics. I guess what I am really looking for is consistency from model run to model run. If this trend is to continue, there could be severe weather anywhere from Arkansas/Oklahoma up to Iowa /Nebraska on Tuesday. Concerned about moiiiiisttttuuuuurrreeeeeee..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS have exact same low placement at 84 hours, albeit the NAM is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z GFS still faster than the UKM & CMC at 96...CMC hammers e SD/e ND/w MN with 2.0+ qpf in spots. 96hr 12z CMC/UKM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 big questions for the 612/651 and the rest of southern MN still out there. the NAM, GFS, and Canadian global runs are all suggesting some type of wintery mix (NAM thinking IP, GFS going IP > ZR-/R-, and the canadian thinking ZR/IP/RA). could end up a really big mess, depending on what pans out as well as what the euro hints at. i could see the warm air coming in over here for ZR or IP, but reg rain? that would be a major screwjob for snow-lovers around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z euro has shifted south compared to the other models with qpf. ABR 1.34 DLH 0.35 FAR 0.19 FSD 1.72 GFK 0.00 LSE 1.04 MSP 1.46 OVL 1.86 RST 0.99 STC 1.63 VTN 1.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z euro has shifted south compared to the other models with qpf. ABR 1.34 DLH 0.35 FAR 0.19 FSD 1.72 GFK 0.00 LSE 1.04 MSP 1.46 RST 0.99 STC 1.63 VTN 1.28 All snow in MSP I'm assuming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 All snow in MSP I'm assuming? Yes, sfc tmps & 850 tmps all below freezing during the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yes, sfc tmps & 850 tmps all below freezing during the entire event. Nice. I likey. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Would the EURO be a mixed bag for la crosse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 big questions for the 612/651 and the rest of southern MN still out there. the NAM, GFS, and Canadian global runs are all suggesting some type of wintery mix (NAM thinking IP, GFS going IP > ZR-/R-, and the canadian thinking ZR/IP/RA). could end up a really big mess, depending on what pans out as well as what the euro hints at. i could see the warm air coming in over here for ZR or IP, but reg rain? that would be a major screwjob for snow-lovers around here.. Right now I am going highly on the ECMWF. It certainly is going to have an advantage in such a situation where we are dealing with PV conservation/rapid intensification since it runs at more than double the spectral resolution of the other globals. For now, NAM is so far in left field I wouldn't even look at it. Its solution really makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Would the EURO be a mixed bag for la crosse? hard call, maybe at the start of the event but it should change over quickly. WED 00Z 29-FEB 0.5 -0.7 1016 72 86 0.02 554 541 WED 06Z 29-FEB -0.8 -0.4 1008 82 100 0.16 549 543 WED 12Z 29-FEB -1.3 -3.2 1001 87 83 0.41 538 537 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.3 -5.8 1000 86 99 0.17 535 534 THU 00Z 01-MAR -1.8 -7.9 1004 88 98 0.24 535 532 THU 06Z 01-MAR -4.0 -8.6 1009 85 80 0.04 539 532 THU 12Z 01-MAR -8.0 -8.3 1012 89 70 0.01 542 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 What about YYZ Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 What about YYZ Toronto? YYZ WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.4 -3.9 1013 83 100 0.12 551 540 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.1 -6.1 1012 87 53 0.18 545 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR -1.3 -3.4 1009 89 62 0.03 542 535 THU 12Z 01-MAR -2.5 -3.6 1008 88 62 0.08 540 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR -0.1 -4.3 1008 92 89 0.10 540 534 FRI 00Z 02-MAR 0.3 -4.2 1011 97 92 0.13 543 534 FRI 06Z 02-MAR 0.4 -4.6 1014 94 73 0.02 545 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Would this be good for all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Would this be good for all snow? Most likely, maybe a mix at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Dprog/Dt on the 12/18Z NAM at 39/45 hours. This is why the NAM is totally worthless in terms of usability until this is within 48 hours, especially when one is dealing with multiple moving parts offshore phasing into the main trough. At least it has a better idea on the phase w.r.t. the globals. I would expect this run will end closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 What about YYZ Toronto? i already provided you with the info in the other thread, why ask for it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The latest HPC day 3 snow & ice outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 UNR office already issuing WSW's for Rapid City & the Black Hills for late mon thru tue evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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