mnweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It is impressive, GFS is definitely one of the more progressive solutions. SD, ND, and N MN would definitely see the best from this. Alright baro I know its early but what kind of accumulations do you feel are possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Alright baro I know its early but what kind of accumulations do you feel are possible? It is early, but track will matter big. The N trend bodes well for you, but how the system ejects determines whether it remains stalled or progressive. If it stalls they could be huge close to 1+ foot, if it progressive like GFS it may be somewhat less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 12z ukie further north at 120 ...a pounding for ND/n MN via 12z CMC/UKM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Alright baro I know its early but what kind of accumulations do you feel are possible? fwiw: 12z gfs cobb data gives DLH 12.1" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 fwiw: 12z gfs cobb data gives DLH 12.1" snow. Thank you much, though we know it will change every run from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 both gfs/cmc have snow to rain back to snow for my area but it's much needed moisture if it all pans out as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 CMC still plotting 2.0+ totals for e ND/nw MN...FAR 2.39. Normally i would cut the CMC qpf in half but euro/gfs not that far off on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Now that I look at the GGEM online...I doubt that verifies. A track from WY through SD into western MN is extremely rare...it almost doesn't look real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 12z ECM hammers ABR to FAR into nw MN with 2.0"+...MSP 0.88 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Where does it track the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Where does it track the low? across IA/MN border to se MN to nw of Green Bay...it's colder than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Hot. Nebraska gets in on the action here too. Blizzard for portions of SD/ND/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 ECMWF makes much more sense to me than the progressive GFS...it is rare for upper lows to close off and bomb out like that while remaining progressive. ECMWF is colder because it forces much stronger height/pressure falls and associated dynamic induced cooling of the low layers. ECMWF even snips off a warm seclusion. Extremely rare in extratropical land based lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Hot. Nebraska gets in on the action here too. Blizzard for portions of SD/ND/NE. euro hits n NE good. VTN 0.93 LBF 0.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 What does the euro show for the la crosse area. I would assume by the time the temp crash the precip is to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 What does the euro show for the la crosse area. I would assume by the time the temp crash the precip is to the north? LSE TUE 18Z 28-FEB -1.4 -3.1 1023 67 99 0.03 555 538 WED 00Z 29-FEB 0.3 0.1 1012 72 96 0.06 553 543 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.1 0.5 1001 89 94 0.32 543 542 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.3 -7.7 995 74 79 0.11 527 531 WED 18Z 29-FEB -2.4 -9.6 993 75 64 0.03 524 530 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.6 -9.9 997 80 100 0.05 522 525 THU 06Z 01-MAR -2.5 -10.3 1003 84 85 0.02 529 527 RST TUE 18Z 28-FEB -1.8 -2.2 1020 72 95 0.04 554 538 WED 00Z 29-FEB -0.5 1.1 1008 79 100 0.10 551 544 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.0 2.4 997 93 58 0.35 537 540 WED 12Z 29-FEB -3.6 -10.8 993 76 99 0.07 524 530 WED 18Z 29-FEB -2.6 -9.2 991 82 93 0.05 522 529 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.3 -8.5 999 85 99 0.05 524 525 THU 06Z 01-MAR -3.9 -10.2 1006 83 71 0.02 532 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Even the more progressive GFS still buries ND/SD/MN with potentially greater than 1' snow with this system. Taking Cobb #'s from today's 12z GFS run Fargo would get 11.5" and Bemidji, MN would get 15.2" Bemidji, MN 120228/0900Z 93 11006KT 15.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 120228/1200Z 96 09007KT 15.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120228/1500Z 99 10010KT 17.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 120228/1800Z 102 09011KT 20.9F SNOW 17:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 14:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 120228/2100Z 105 08015KT 25.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 12:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 120229/0000Z 108 06010KT 24.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.256 13:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120229/0300Z 111 04012KT 22.2F SNOW 7:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.297 11:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86 100| 0| 0 120229/0600Z 114 04011KT 21.6F SNOW 14:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.152 11:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0 120229/0900Z 117 02010KT 20.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135 11:1| 12.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.14 100| 0| 0 120229/1200Z 120 35010KT 17.9F SNOW 13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 11:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120229/1500Z 123 34012KT 16.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 11:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 100| 0| 0 120229/1800Z 126 32013KT 16.1F SNOW 21:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 14.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28 100| 0| 0 120229/2100Z 129 32012KT 18.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30 100| 0| 0 120301/0000Z 132 31008KT 16.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120301/0300Z 135 30007KT 14.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0 120301/0600Z 138 30005KT 14.3F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 11:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.33 100| 0| 0 Fargo, ND 120228/0300Z 87 09005KT 14.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 120228/0600Z 90 09006KT 16.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 120228/0900Z 93 08009KT 18.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 120228/1200Z 96 07010KT 19.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120228/1500Z 99 08013KT 20.6F SNOW 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 10:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 120228/1800Z 102 07016KT 24.0F SNOW 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 11:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 120228/2100Z 105 03012KT 25.1F SNOW 5:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.204 9:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 120229/0000Z 108 03018KT 25.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118 8:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120229/0300Z 111 01016KT 24.0F SNOW 8:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150 8:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 100| 0| 0 120229/0600Z 114 35018KT 21.1F SNOW 9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.215 8:1| 8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06 100| 0| 0 120229/0900Z 117 33020KT 17.3F SNOW 13:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 9:1| 10.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.14 100| 0| 0 120229/1200Z 120 32020KT 14.6F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 9:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120229/1500Z 123 33021KT 13.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 9:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21 100| 0| 0 120229/1800Z 126 32018KT 18.0F SNOW 20:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0 120229/2100Z 129 32016KT 21.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 11.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Could we see blizzard warnings in 4 states with this storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 CIPS analog page has some great past storms. I was surprised to see so many have taken crazy tracks like some of the guidance here are suggesting...like ne CO to se SD. http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= ONe of the top analogs was a storm that looks similar to what the ECMWF is progging. March 31 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Could we see blizzard warnings in 4 states with this storm?? Possible, depends on where that track goes and if it stalls. 3 would be a potential from portions of NE into SD/ND. Maybe western MN...Right now track is up in the air as well as rapid occlusion. Right now no model should be taken verbatim...they are just giving us potentials right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean has the same placement as the ECM at hr 108 but it's 12hrs faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 18Z GFS coming in much slower with the phase...similar to the ECMWF through 57 hrs. I would expect the low to eject slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 What I expected. 18Z GFS much more inline with ECMWF...much slower and occludes faster. Stalling the surface low near SD/MN/IA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Each subsequent run of the ECMWF, and to some extent the GFS, keeps slowly increasing the amount of moisture return. The orientation at 500MB looks like a classic severe weather event for early Spring, esp. if the trough ends up digging further south than currently indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Somebody should post this. 12z GFS 5-day total snowfall North Dakota gets 18"+. I suppose there's the potential for over 9" at some place in the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 ECMWF is so vigorous with the occlusion process and the deep PV interactions that it actually closes off a portion of the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Any comments on the system following this one baro? From my perspective...it looks more favorable than this one for svr. Not that this one still doesn't carry that element, particularly upon looking at a few of those GFS ensemble members and the fact that several WFOs are already mentioning it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Any comments on the system following this one baro? From my perspective...it looks more favorable than this one for svr. Not that this one still doesn't carry that element, particularly upon looking at a few of those GFS ensemble members and the fact that several WFOs are already mentioning it. Nothing really....too much variability on wave timing/strength. CMC would be an ideal solution obviously. ECMWF wouldn't be bad either. Certainly this cold front pushing through the GOM as we speak is going to do some damage...so much so even the plains bomb will have limited moisture to work with overall even with the favorable trajectories. Residence time is just not long enough to fully moisten it...third system day 6-8 will have that. Certainly a threat exists across somewhere around the SE into the southern states, but wave timing is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2007/us0607.php LHR unecessary if 850 temps are already +20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.