prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Lets hope this beast still has enough moisture to work with by 3 am to bring some significant snow! TSTRM in sioux falls, sd last hour so maybe a clap of thunder later if it can make it up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 RUC proximity soundings all snow across portions of western MN later...much farther S than op guidance. RUC, as of now, seems to have a handle on this rapidly intensifying system. RGEM too. Starting to look sick, and I am starting to get excited. Classic synoptic bomb doing what it wants to do. DMC is having a huge effect on how this storm is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 beast mode is right, awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 33 degrees and rain here. Disgusting. 32 degrees and freezing rain here, actually well over an inch the last time I checked, probably exceeding 1.5 inches by now. Unfortunately, not cold enough to be armageddon. Too warm to freeze to everything instantly. The worst part, is the snow line has only been about 35 miles north of here for the last few hours. Go to the link below, find Watertown, and look at one of the cams which has light nearby and you'll see the snowcover on the interstate. The roads are probably worse to drive on here though if they are low volume, as the icy mess on them is difficult to drive in. http://www.safetravelusa.com/sd/ I'm just happy we got a lot of precipitation, though I wish it had been snow. We got more rain than Sioux Falls, and... RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION SET AT SIOUX FALLS SD... THROUGH 1010 PM CST RAINFALL FOR THE DAY AT JOE FOSS FIELD IN SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TOTALED 1.27 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 1.19 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 05Z SmartCast Update: Mosinee, WI - Chandler, MN - St. Cloud, MN - and Gwinner-Roger looking at the highest threat areas. Tracking especially the last 3 cities around 12-13" of additiona snow through 16Z. With a zone from 6-15Z of 1.2 to 1.4" snowfall rates across this area, coupled with winds gusting up to 33-35mph through the period. For the Mosinee area tracking 6" of snow and Ice accumulation potential. Otherwise across rest of SD/NE/MN a general 2-8" of additional snow possible. Full update uploaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I have been waiting for a beast storm all winter. This is doing it. Synoptic hotness. True synoptic beasts do what they like, not what models think they will do. This storm is taking names. Moisture transport is getting owned, and everything is wrapping into the PV center. LHR release is maximized into the center of this bent back occluded hotness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 32 degrees and freezing rain here, actually well over an inch the last time I checked, probably exceeding 1.5 inches by now. Unfortunately, not cold enough to be armageddon. Too warm to freeze to everything instantly. The worst part, is the snow line has only been about 35 miles north of here for the last few hours. Go to the link below, find Watertown, and look at one of the cams which has light nearby and you'll see the snowcover on the interstate. The roads are probably worse to drive on here though if they are low volume, as the icy mess on them is difficult to drive in. http://www.safetravelusa.com/sd/ I'm just happy we got a lot of precipitation, though I wish it had been snow. We got more rain than Sioux Falls, and... RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION SET AT SIOUX FALLS SD... THROUGH 1010 PM CST RAINFALL FOR THE DAY AT JOE FOSS FIELD IN SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TOTALED 1.27 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 1.19 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1951. sweet, a dual comma head on the radar animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 This isn't particularly good. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1057 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1055 PM HEAVY SNOW VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W 02/28/2012 E6.0 INCH CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT NUMEROUS VEHICLES REPORTED TO HAVE SLID OFF THE ROADS THROUGHOUT CHERRY COUNTY...AND SEVERAL PEOPLE HAVING TO BE RESCUED FROM THEIR VEHICLES. ALSO...SEVERAL TRUCKS JACK KNIFED...WITH ONE BLOCKING TRAVEL ON HIGHWAY 83 JUST SOUTH OF VALENTINE ON THE NIOBRARA RIVER HILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 05z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Overall just amazing. Gorgeous. What a tremendous way to usher out one of the cruddiest winter I have experienced in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 latest ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Man I hope the column can cool sufficiently here for all snow before the heavy precip leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 This cyclone is tightening up fast. Moisture transport northward is being inhibited big time...what a weird storm this has been to track. Now it seems like northern areas that were supposed to do well will not do so hot. The mid level low has already flattened its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 ECMWF just weather holed the biggest weather hole in the world...Grand Forks, ND. Current trends suggest the WSW across that area may struggle, big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Man I hope the column can cool sufficiently here for all snow before the heavy precip leaves. ECMWF cools the column and brings in a second band of mod/heavy snow into portions of western MN and the Twin Cities near morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 ECMWF just weather holed the biggest weather hole in the world...Grand Forks, ND. Current trends suggest the WSW across that area may struggle, big. do you think the heaviest snow may fall in areas once thought a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 do you think the heaviest snow may fall in areas once thought a few days ago? Possible, depends on where you are talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 ECMWF cools the column and brings in a second band of mod/heavy snow into portions of western MN and the Twin Cities near morning. I'm quickly learning not to expect much up here until it's already fallen. Though we're going to get shafted it's still an impressive storm and exciting to track. Enjoy to those who are actually seeing some exciting weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 06z 989 L over YKN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm quickly learning not to expect much up here until it's already fallen. Though we're going to get shafted it's still an impressive storm and exciting to track. Enjoy to those who are actually seeing some exciting weather! GFK is a tough area. The weather hole seems to be an actual real feature. Seen it too much not to believe it. In fact, one of my friends did a study on it when we were at UND. That said, this isn't the classic GFK weather hole in action. But you are right...that area is tough if the pattern blows. Lack of clippers this year has hurt, and zero northern plains bombs has hurt too. GFK loves inverted trofs, and you really only get that when you strong split flow phases/large cutoffs across the Midwest. Just haven't had that with this junky northern stream pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I usually like to pride myself in not flip flopping, but I flopped hard with this storm. I was pretty convinced the total lack of arctic air across the CCB was going to hurt this storm big, but DMC across the WCB is changing all that, forcing rapid pressure falls/height falls and a strong positive feedback mainly via LHR release near the PV center as a large portion of the WCB moisture is wrapping into the low as opposed to being spread out along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 06z 989 L over YKN Beautiful. Where are you getting those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Silver lining for me: We really needed the rain and this storm has certainly provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Beautiful. Where are you getting those? I make that with gempak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFK is a tough area. The weather hole seems to be an actual real feature. Seen it too much not to believe it. In fact, one of my friends did a study on it when we were at UND. That said, this isn't the classic GFK weather hole in action. But you are right...that area is tough if the pattern blows. Lack of clippers this year as hurt, and zero northern plains bombs has hurt too. GFK loved inverted trofs, and you really only get that when you strong split flow phases/large cutoffs across the Midwest. Just haven't had that with this junky northern stream pattern. Yea that makes sense. After all the stories I've heard about near misses I should have tried to be more objective about this storm. I was actually forecasting for the Dakotas the past several days and think I let the hype get to me. Talk about a bust lol. Obviously this winter has been quite a disappointment for many areas but I had pretty high hopes going into it. Seems that between the AO being so positive and the MJO not cooperating that it really erased any La Nina effect. But I'm getting off topic... As for this storm, I'm very interested in seeing the snowfall gradient across Nodak and Minnesota. Seems that wherever that area of precip that's currently moving into the Watertown area sets up will create some impressive totals with areas just north not much more than some snow showers. As a meteorologist you gotta love a storm like this, producing near blizzard conditions in areas while on the warm side of things severe weather with a few tornadoes reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 07Z SmartCast Update: Losing a bit of confidence in my output now, having trouble adjusting to current trends. Still holding areas around Gwinner to St. Cloud as the zone of heaviest snow through 18Z with additional 12.9" of snow. While backing off on Chandler and Brainerd with 6-9". It also increase snow output for areas around Watertown, SD to around 8" additional snow. Right now tracking over 65 major cities with some sort of impact to this system, whether be snow, ice, winds, or severe weather. Full output updated http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 07z 988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 07z 988 I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't track all that much farther N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 That area of showers developing along the SD/IA/S MN border is going to be the area that blossoms over the next 6+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That area of showers developing along the SD/IA/S MN border is going to be the area that blossoms over the next 6+ hours. is that the potential snow for the willmar area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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