baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Global guidance continues to suggest a low amplitude phase along the west coast and a deepening trough ejecting into the plains sometime on the 28th as some sort of Colorado Low taking the classic track from CO then curving NE into the northern plains. Teleconnections are weak on this, but it does seem probable a storm will emerge the Rockies...and the GOM will be wide open with significant moist fluxes. All global guidance also suggests significant room for growth in the height field...so it doesn't seem probable anything ejecting will be squashed by the northern stream. Big differences come in terms of latitude of the ejecting trough. ECMWF would eject the upper lead anomaly near the Panhandles of TX/OK while CMC/GFS/UKMET suggest a northern CO ejection. Makes a rather huge difference both in terms of rapid intensification, GOM feed (farther S would suggest greater moisture transport), how fast the cyclone occludes, etc. Resultant differences equate to a historic storm across southern MN (12z ECMWF) to a significant storm across portions of N MN and Nodak (0z CMC), 0z GFS somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 12Z ECMWF ejection into the plains...note how far S it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 This storm will have a significant moist feed off the GOM...which will play a huge role in rapid intensification. LHR processes are extremely important in cyclone growth/amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 12 Euro verbatim would probably be a sig-svr event somewhere from the Central/Southern Plains eastward through the Mid South/Mid MS Valley/OH Valley/TN Valley and the 00z GFS/CMC is close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 0z CMC at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 0z CMC at 120 Wow, impressive divergence aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 12 Euro verbatim would probably be a sig-svr event somewhere from the Central/Southern Plains eastward through the Mid South/Mid MS Valley/OH Valley/TN Valley and the 00z GFS is close to it. Yeah it would, really the globals are not that different on configuration aloft...they differ much more on latitude of ejection and to a degree tilt. ECMWF would be an extreme solution obviously both due to its far S latitude and its strong negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 0z CMC at 120 Just adding up CMC precip it would be over 2" for portions of ND/MN. Some of it all snow. Honestly with the GOM in the state it will be, it isn't that ridiculous.ECMWF did the same thing for southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just adding up CMC precip it would be over 2" for portions of ND/MN. Some of it all snow. Honestly with the GOM in the state it will be, it isn't that ridiculous.ECMWF did the same thing for southern MN. would there be a possible ice storm with this or just rain in the warm sector & snow on the cold side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 would there be a possible ice storm with this or just rain in the warm sector & snow on the cold side? Depends. Ice verbatim would be an unlikely event given the vigorous warm sector advection. It would be difficult to support any freezing layers near the surface...especially with the cruddy snow pack. Plain rain would be a bigger worry across the warm sector with this type of cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 most of the 0z gef members are like the ggem at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Really impressive agreement there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 ECMWF at 72 hours. I don't think we have to worry about lack of phasing/and or a poor phase at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like it is going to dive pretty far south, or at least looking at where the phase is likely to occur with the southern stream impulse already into N/Central CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 At 120 it actually looks nearly identical to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 992 L goes right over me at 132 according to the accu text data...euro is colder though with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 At 120 it actually looks nearly identical to the GFS. Yeah, pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 992 L goes right over me at 132 according to the accu text data...euro is colder though with temps. Euro verbatim occludes rapidly...would be a big snow maker for you and portions of western MN eastern SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Euro verbatim occludes rapidly...would be a big snow maker for you and portions of western MN eastern SD. 990 L at msp at 132 but temps below 32 and 1.03 qpf at msp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Hard to complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 A thing of beauty right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Holy moly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Honestly I won't complain about anything tonite. Increasing threat somebody gets shellacked with a major CO Low. Honestly there is no way to be sure about any track as it will be highly dependent upon the lead anomaly...no different than any other leeside cyclogenesis event. The potential is high though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 all wait and see here as well. but what a time for this low to happen. just when i'm going to fly back to PA for my brother's wedding, MSP > ORD > AVP. but at least we have a more exciting end to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Keep in mind that there is still plenty of time for this to trend south as well, which as baro mentioned, would heighten the potential even more for not just a major storm, but a monster/historic storm (and a possible significant svr wx threat on the warm sector side). Considering the amount of upper/mid level energy likely to be digging/phasing into this feature, this scenario remains entirely plausible, I would have to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Keep in mind that there is still plenty of time for this to trend south as well, which as baro mentioned, would heighten the potential even more for not just a major storm, but a monster/historic storm (and a possible significant svr wx threat on the warm sector side). Considering the amount of upper/mid level energy likely to be digging/phasing into this feature, this scenario remains entirely plausible, I would have to think. Storm systems with a lot of upper-level energy can often trend southward as we approach "go time"... but I'd watch just how early on in the storm system's life cycle occlusion occurs. The surface pressure falls that help keep low-level winds backed (low-level shear and convergence necessity there) will often shift away from the warm sector once a cyclone occludes... and the warm front also detaches itself from the low... which then halts its northward progress. This is probably not a case where the northward progression of the warm front is in question for a potential severe risk, especially for the Lower Mississippi Valley... but if the cyclone occludes too soon, low-level winds may have a veering tendency on a synoptic level through the warm sector, and that can reduce low-level directional shear and low-level convergence. We've had what would otherwise be high-end tornado days bust horribly because of that. The less wrapped up the upper-level system is when it ejects into the Plains, the slower any occlusion will be to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 SPC going pretty conservative in the Day 4-8: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 VALID 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EVOLVE OVER W COAST STATES BY START OF PERIOD...FROM PHASING OF SEVERAL VORTICITY FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHS NOW OVER N-CENTRAL/NERN PAC. THOUGH DIFFERING IN AMPLITUDE...MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ECMWF/UKMET ARE MOSTLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF 500-MB WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP SFC CYCLONE MOVING ENEWD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY DAY-5/28TH-29TH. PRIOR/STG FROPA WILL RESTRICT MOISTURE RECOVERY/RETURN INTO THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SFC DEW POINTS 50S F MAY REACH MOST KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS NEAR SFC LOW. MOISTURE IS PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL/30% SVR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...THOUGH AT LEAST SOME SVR CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW LIKELY OVER CORN BELT AND LOWER MO VALLEY. EML/CAPPING TYPICALLY STRENGTHENS WITH SWD EXTENT IN THESE PATTERNS...WHILE FRONTAL/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE DECREASES...OFFSETTING FAVORABLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...KS/OK SVR THREAT ALSO APPEARS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR CATEGORICAL AREA ATTM. AFTER DAY-5...POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK GIVEN FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH DAY-5 SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT VARIABILITY IN PROGS OF UPPER WAVES. ..EDWARDS.. 02/24/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 6Z GFS came north of 0Z, tons of moisture with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 12z is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 12z is impressive. It is impressive, GFS is definitely one of the more progressive solutions. SD, ND, and N MN would definitely see the best from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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