Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Trent]

...Looks like the next batch of storms is going to pass south of here. Congratulations are in store for Canton and points south...again...

2012 has been the Year of Futility. We've been pretty much stuck in a rotten pattern since about Veteran's Day 2011. Since then, a GIANT SUPER 500mb ridge of high pressure, parked generally over the Central/Eastern plains, has been 1) partially responsible for our lousy winter by deflecting the really cold air east instead of coming south out of Canada (+AO/+NAO was the other culprit) 2) by sitting over the area and baking us in the awful heat and 3) by keeping any meaningful precip from getting anywhere near the area, except for some thunderstorm activity which seems (with the exception of today and 7/5) to ALWAYS miss us to the south.

I firmly believe that NE Ohio is one of the hardest hit areas by this drought (compared to the rest of the state as we have missed out on the lions share of the rain). I also think things will remain the same at least until mid or late September. However with the Super Ridge, the general crappy pattern could well continue much later into the fall and I wouldn't be suprised if it again had some kind of effect on the upcoming winter.

Yes, there is an El Nino developing, which one would think would help to dissipate the Super Ridge but this ridge is so immense, it may take a lot of time to break it down. Sort of like turning an aircraft carrier.

We'll see, but with the persistent very negative PDO sustaining the Alaskan Low/Gulf of Alaska trough which downstream, sustains the Super Ridge...I don't know. Guess we'll have to stay tuned.

Here is the latest 90 day precip map. There is a definite hole over Northeast Ohio. We are pretty much the driest place in the NWS Eastern Region.

[AppsRunner]

Picked up 1.6" last evening, another couple tenths this morning. Not a drought buster, but it does ease things at least temporarily.

[NEOH]

Another frontal passage failure. Congrats to those getting rain in western oh.

[LakeEffectOH]

Another frontal passage failure. Congrats to those getting rain in western oh.

Yep, wash, rinse and repeat. I wonder if the upcoming system will pull this stunt. CLE sounds bullish on the amount & coverage of rainfall, but the system is a couple of days out so we'll see.

[NEOH]

Yep, wash, rinse and repeat. I wonder if the upcoming system will pull this stunt. CLE sounds bullish on the amount & coverage of rainfall, but the system is a couple of days out so we'll see.

CLE has been embarassingly bullish over and over this summer. I'll give it a 10% chance of rain/storms until it is actually falling from the sky on top of us. Storms have repeatedly found ways to miss this area... no reason the trend won't continue. The flow just hasn't been strong enough to subdue the lake boundary from stabilizing the shoreline.

It's been a heck of a summer so far. I'll take a rainless summer over a snowless winter any day.

[carumba]

CLE has been embarassingly bullish over and over this summer. I'll give it a 10% chance of rain/storms until it is actually falling from the sky on top of us. Storms have repeatedly found ways to miss this area... no reason the trend won't continue. The flow just hasn't been strong enough to subdue the lake boundary from stabilizing the shoreline.

It's been a heck of a summer so far. I'll take a rainless summer over a snowless winter any day.

I take whatever % chance of precipitation CLE puts out and I divide it in half. It usually has worked out solid this summer. What I don't get though is that in the AFD they often point out the persistence of dry patterns such as this yet they still feel obligated to mention a 20 - 30% POP. Why bother? Is it that they know someone will get it so they throw something out?

[LakeEffectOH]

What's ironic about this summer is that the predominant direction where precip comes from is WNW to NNW and in summer, that direction is often poor (unless you get a dericho) for storms due to the stablized lake boundry, but this range of directions is perfect for LES in the winter. I call the phenomonon we have been seeing reverse lake effect.

Although reverse lake effect traditionally means LES falls in the wrong place (think Westlake), I think what we have had this summer is a better definition as the lake actually works to kill activity instead of working to enhance it.

[NEOH]

What's ironic about this summer is that the predominant direction where precip comes from is WNW to NNW and in summer, that direction is often poor (unless you get a dericho) for storms due to the stablized lake boundry, but this range of directions is perfect for LES in the winter. I call the phenomonon we have been seeing reverse lake effect.

Although reverse lake effect traditionally means LES falls in the wrong place (think Westlake), I think what we have had this summer is a better definition as the lake actually works to kill activity instead of working to enhance it.

Good point... we've had virtually no precip come at us from other than the WNW. What's odd is that NE of here in Erie and points NE the lake hasn't really done much damage to the storms and precip.

Going to be an interesting night and day tomorrow. Hopefully we can get an MCS to roll through. We are right on the border of the mod outlook tomorrow. Hopefully we don't see action fire up to the south and east while we bask in dry NE'erly winds.

[HighTechEE]

Sorry guys for posting a 'southern ohio' piece of information, but wow! This is the longest area forecast discusion I’ve ever seen (winter or summer) from ILN:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/public.php

Looks like a dangerous situation setting up for tomorrow afternoon, evening, and overnight into Friday for us and you north coasters!

[dta1984]

Sorry guys for posting a 'southern ohio' piece of information, but wow! This is the longest area forecast discusion I’ve ever seen (winter or summer) from ILN:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/public.php

Looks like a dangerous situation setting up for tomorrow afternoon, evening, and overnight into Friday for us and you north coasters!

Here is the link to that;

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

Very good detailed write up

[NEOH]

A couple drops of rain from a shower that popped up along the outflow... that's been it so far. yawn. Clouds coming in should limit instability today. Central and southern OH is looking good.

[LakeEffectOH]

Good point... we've had virtually no precip come at us from other than the WNW. What's odd is that NE of here in Erie and points NE the lake hasn't really done much damage to the storms and precip.

Going to be an interesting night and day tomorrow. Hopefully we can get an MCS to roll through. We are right on the border of the mod outlook tomorrow. Hopefully we don't see action fire up to the south and east while we bask in dry NE'erly winds.

...Latest SPC has shifted the moderate risk area southeast. Will we get screwed by the Lake while areas from the Turnpike on south get in on the fun? We shall see...

[NEOH]

...Latest SPC has shifted the moderate risk area southeast. Will we get screwed by the Lake while areas from the Turnpike on south get in on the fun? We shall see...

Enjoy your rain shower and wind shift . Line is forming over the lake... looks like it will travel north of the area instead of dropping to the SE like it has been doing all morning. Hopefully these clouds will clear out so we can at least enjoy some sunshine with the northerly winds.

[LakeEffectOH]

Enjoy your rain shower and wind shift . Line is forming over the lake... looks like it will travel north of the area instead of dropping to the SE like it has been doing all morning. Hopefully these clouds will clear out so we can at least enjoy some sunshine with the northerly winds.

Thanks!

The radar is showing more activity in N Indiana, but so far it's not impressive and it looks like it's not developing. In fact, as of now, that area of showers looks like it's having a hard time staying together.

[LakeEffectOH]

Yep, line of storms forming just SE of the lakeshore. From Mansfield to Akron to Southern Ashtabula county. Can we say severe weather cancel for the area within 30 miles of the lake?

2012 so far has had the most pitiful stretch of weather I have seen anywhere and I've lived in many different areas. 2013 will be better because I don't think it can get any worse than 2012.

[NEOH]

Yep, line of storms forming just SE of the lakeshore. From Mansfield to Akron to Southern Ashtabula county. Can we say severe weather cancel for the area within 30 miles of the lake?

2012 so far has had the most pitiful stretch of weather I have seen anywhere and I've lived in many different areas. 2013 will be better because I don't think it can get any worse than 2012.

Yep, the line is starting to blow up just east and south of here. Not surprising I guess since that's the way it has been all summer. That line will probably be the main show unless there is redevelopment to the west. Winds have gone northerly near the lake. Usually by this time of the year the warm lake waters don't have that much of an effect on the storms.

Edit: the storm in ashtabula is now tornado warned

[NEOH]

Just noticed a severe thunderstorm watch was issued... extends pretty well to the west as well. Perhaps another line will form this afternoon and head east. You would think the line across eastern OH would be it for the day but I guess time will tell.

Nasty looking cell in ashtabula.

[LakeEffectOH]

Just noticed a severe thunderstorm watch was issued... extends pretty well to the west as well. Perhaps another line will form this afternoon and head east. You would think the line across eastern OH would be it for the day but I guess time will tell.

Nasty looking cell in ashtabula.

Lost a good post I made due to our company's internet policies . I checked the radar and there was a line of widely scattered storms from Ontario down to the Lima/Findlay area. However, the northern part of the broken line is weakening as the southern part of the line is strengthening. Lakeshore boundary is at work again.

This summer, we have had two things working against us in this area. One is the lake boundary, separating mid/upper 80s & northerly winds from the much hotter mid and upper 90s found farther inland. This differential has been so common all summer as the high temperatures allow the "cooler" lake air to penetrate further south and east than usual. The second factor is the relative lack of soil moisture from this system causing a positive feedback.

IMHO, a powerful dericho is one of the few things that can overcome this setup. Unfortunately, powerful derichos result in damage & power outages.

We might have to wait until Late September or October to recover some of the missed rainfall from lake effect rain showers (if the pattern is right). I'd say the lakeshore is in a comparable drought situation with the harder hit areas in Indiana.

[LakeEffectOH]

After looking at the radar and the behavior of the storms, I say Severe Storms for the CLE Area CANCEL. We may be lucky to just get the pavement wet.

[NEOH]

After looking at the radar and the behavior of the storms, I say Severe Storms for the CLE Area CANCEL. We may be lucky to just get the pavement wet.

Outside of a brief shower I'm not expecting much, if anything. As soon as something pops to the west it fizzles as it approaches the central lakeshore. Gotta go with persistence this year. Areas to the south may see mutiple storms. W PA has been the hot spot lately.

[LakeEffectOH]

Outside of a brief shower I'm not expecting much, if anything. As soon as something pops to the west it fizzles as it approaches the central lakeshore. Gotta go with persistence this year. Areas to the south may see mutiple storms. W PA has been the hot spot lately.

The only hope here is that we will see some rain during the overnight hours when the lake boundary is not so aggressive. Trick here is whether the best instability will leave by then and if there are any additional areas of rain that would come in from the west.

[NEOH]

The only hope here is that we will see some rain during the overnight hours when the lake boundary is not so aggressive. Trick here is whether the best instability will leave by then and if there are any additional areas of rain that would come in from the west.

Well, I was half joking about the lake breeze forming today... and sure enough it looks as though it has formed. It's raining in Chagrin but I see nothing but fair skies to the north. Winds have also turned NW'erly.

CLE's AFD was still pretty agressive. "More" severe storms tomorrow even.

RIGHT NOW THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SO WE ARE NOW OUT OF THE WOODS YET. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR EXISTS ALOFT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ENTIRE WATCH. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL

BE OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA

-- Changed Discussion --

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE MORNING WILL BE DRY BUT EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE WITH HIGH SURFACE

DEWPOINTS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE SEVERE WEATHER. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST THIRD OF THE AREA.

[OHweather]

Well, most areas have seen precip today...likely 70-80% coverage...but areas that have recieved more than .5", which is what it will take to at the very least keep the drought from worsening, are few and far between, and confined mainly to areas south/east of Cleveland.

CLE seems bullish again for tomorrow and already has likely POPs in the forecast. Looking upstream there is a decent squall line with the front that will move through northern OH tomorrow afternoon, so if we can see similar coverage along the front tomorrow we may see some scattered .5"+ amounts. The lake may again mess with things, although air temps are expected to be several degrees cooler tomorrow so the lake may not have as big of a stabalizing impact.

After tomorrow no signs of widespread relief into early next week, so we will likely remain in a moderate or worse drought for next week's update. If we fail to see significant rainfall tomorrow and go dry into early next week we may see severe drought conditions creep east next week as well.

[LakeEffectOH]

Looks like a decent cell between Toledo & Sandusky may be of some promise, especially that there has been some cooling to our south from the rain. Next week, yeah, looks like a return to the WNW flow (we know what that means). From an earlier CLE AFD:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS SHOW BUILDING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE

OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION

DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO

VALLEY IN A "RING OF FIRE" SCENARIO. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN MUCH

OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR PASSING SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE

A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S

ON AVERAGE.

Maybe we will get a nice dericho coming out of MI. I'd like that!

[Trent]

Not a shock that there wasn't a drop of rain today here along the lakeshore. I'm hoping any storms actually keep at bay until 1 am. CLE only had a low of 80 overnight and if that can somehow hold for a few more hours it would be an incredible feat.

[NEOH]

Was suprised to see the storm hold together yesterday evening and roll through the city and eastern burbs. Nice wind gusts and rainfall with the storm. You could hear the roar of the wind and rain before it hit. There were actually some limbs down in the neighborhood... but they were probably weak from the drought.

Hopefully we can pull off a miracle today and get storms two days in a row.

Soupy out there this morning.

[NEOH]

Clouds are holding tight. Looks like a small line of showers is hugging the coast. Hopefully there will be some instability to work with this afternoon.

[Trent]

I was surprised to see that cell explode as it hit Cuyahoga County last night. Very brief 5 minute storm, but probably 50 mph winds.

[LakeEffectOH]

I was surprised to see that cell explode as it hit Cuyahoga County last night. Very brief 5 minute storm, but probably 50 mph winds.

Same here...was surprised to walk out of my workplace and see that dark blue/gray shelf cloud to the west. I checked the radar before leaving work, but I did not see the storm because the CLE radar has having some weird updating problems. Last image I saw was a strong cell around Sandusky that at the time looked as if it were starting to weaken because of storms to the south and east beginning to sap energy from it. Because of that, I said "severe weather cancel" for the CLE area.

I wonder what caused that cell to take a life of its own?

[LakeEffectOH]

Was suprised to see the storm hold together yesterday evening and roll through the city and eastern burbs. Nice wind gusts and rainfall with the storm. You could hear the roar of the wind and rain before it hit. There were actually some limbs down in the neighborhood... but they were probably weak from the drought.

Hopefully we can pull off a miracle today and get storms two days in a row.

Soupy out there this morning.

It was foggy on the way to work today. Something hit the roof of my car with a big thud on my way home through the thunderstorm last evening. Fortunately there was no damage.

Looks like there is a boundary setup south of here as the areas near the lakeshore (CLE & BKL) are reporting N - NW winds, but CAK and YNG have SW winds and calm winds respectively. The same areas in west PA that got slammed yesterday are getting slammed again.

Looks like some storms over north IN are moving due east towards Ohio. If they hold up & don't lose energy to other storms (esp. to the south and over the lake) we may be seeing activity this evening. I sure hope so!