Trent Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Lake breeze did in fact kick in this morning. Just 82 on the shore. CLE sitting at 86. Going to be hard to get into mid 90s. Then again the modeling showed a late afternoon surge. I guess the NWS call of 88 downtown might not be so bad afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Lake breeze did in fact kick in this morning. Just 82 on the shore. CLE sitting at 86. Going to be hard to get into mid 90s. Then again the modeling showed a late afternoon surge. I guess the NWS call of 88 downtown might not be so bad afterall. With the low humidity it doesn't feel that bad at all. If you are in direct sun that's a different story. As Nic mentioned, watch the western basin area later for storm development.... it actually show two rounds of storm plowing right through Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 With the low humidity it doesn't feel that bad at all. If you are in direct sun that's a different story. As Nic mentioned, watch the western basin area later for storm development.... it actually show two rounds of storm plowing right through Cleveland. We definitely need the rain. The CLE totals this spring and summer do not accurately represent the region. They've been hit by a couple isolated cells that have inflated their totals, plus th rain events of this month were concentrated primarily south and west of the city, including the airport. It actually feels like a pleasant day downtown. I'm still going with my 96 late day high for CLE. Even BKL should hit 90 after 7 pm when the winds shift back to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 We definitely need the rain. The CLE totals this spring and summer do not accurately represent the region. They've been hit by a couple isolated cells that have inflated their totals, plus th rain events of this month were concentrated primarily south and west of the city, including the airport. It actually feels like a pleasant day downtown. I'm still going with my 96 late day high for CLE. Even BKL should hit 90 after 7 pm when the winds shift back to the southwest. I think it is a lot worse then the drought map shows here also. I have only measured 0.74 in licking county, Columbus has had 1.56 for the month more than twice as much. Not many crops grown in the city. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Some storms tried to fire off just now, but nothing could be mustered. We'll see what tonight brings. Ended up being just a regular summer day here along the shore, with low to mid 80s and no extraordinary humidity. My window thermometer is reading 80F right now! Quite a difference from the rest of the midwest and inland locales, looks like CLE will have topped out at 96 or 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Here in Chagrin Falls my max temperature was 96.4°F at 5:47 p.m. That's the hottest I've observed in my 4 years of living here. Even now after 7 p.m. the temperature is still in the mid 90's. What's even more impressive is the dewpoint increases from this morning. They started out in the low 50's across the area and they are now near 70 as the warm front came through this afternoon. What was a hot day has turned really oppressive. I was hoping for some rain, but the thin band of showers that came through was nothing more than a dissipating cumulonimbus with some virga. A bit off topic, but Put-In-Bay has a Davis Vantage Pro at the airport. The anemometer is well suited for representative wind readings. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/putinbay/index.php?view=main&headers=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like NW PA was the bullseye for the storms that managed to fire up last night. The t'storm shield remains in full force across the central lakeshore. Let's hope we can get in on the MCS activity. CLE mentions it quite a bit in the AFD. The drought is really starting to take hold... I've noticed bushes and shrubs starting to wilt. The grass in full sun areas is complete toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 BKL had a high temp around 8:30 pm last night when the winds shifted. Having a high temp of 91 at 8:30pm is quite unusual. It's looking more likely that any storms will skim northern Ohio to the south. Also of impressive note. The low of 78 at CLE is one of the warmest on record should it hold through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Enjoy the line of storms western and central ohio folks. Looking pretty potent right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Things look to set up south of us in northern Ohio through Sunday, where several MCSs may track...the front lifts north Monday and then sags back south Wednesday-Thursday...so perhaps some chances at some ridge rollers Monday-Wednesday across northern OH if the ridging/capping isn't too strong overhead. Some signs at the ridge flexing its muscle again next weekend before decent agreement on a trough building in for the second week of the month...seems like the next 10 days will feature above normal temps before cooling off potentially towards the 9th-10th of July, with some chances at drought relieving precip but right now no slam dunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 So much for that overnight low of 78, we were actually able to fall to 65 by midnight, and this morning's low of 64 is just a degree above normal. I had about 3 drops of rain last night and an isolated clap of thunder. I'm quite glad that MCS missed us to the south. Looking at some of the climate reports, most of the max wind speeds were from the NW at 70-90 mph. Had that been crossing the lake, there would easily have been 100 mph winds with that trajectory along the lakeshore ... enough to cause considerable damage. I haven't pulled out any statistics, but I would presume that with half the year over, we are probably running warmest year on record thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 First t'storm in a long time last evening... it was weak but I'll take it. Once again the Sandusky area saw some nasty storms. Hoping more can pop this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 First t'storm in a long time last evening... it was weak but I'll take it. Once again the Sandusky area saw some nasty storms. Hoping more can pop this afternoon. Barely a 5 minute downpour here. CLE picked up just 0.06" last night. Regionwide, we're looking at an inch or less of precip the last 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Barely a 5 minute downpour here. CLE picked up just 0.06" last night. Regionwide, we're looking at an inch or less of precip the last 30 days. T'storm coverage has been terrible from CLE east. You can almost draw a line from CLE to YNG... nothing can penetrate that line with any intensity. I picked up .20. Not great but it was nice to see t'storms winds and lightning. Really hoping an MCS can dive across the lake tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Nice little line of storms coming across the lake right at CLE. Storms seem to be weakening a bit... but definitely our best chance in a long time. I'm catiously optimistic as every storm this year has found a way to miss the area -- most recently to the NE this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Not enough shear to keep the MCS organized...the outflow rushed well out ahead of the actual storms as they moved off the lake. However, plenty more storms moving in, a good portion of the Cleveland metro will see over half an inch of much needed rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Not enough shear to keep the MCS organized...the outflow rushed well out ahead of the actual storms as they moved off the lake. However, plenty more storms moving in, a good portion of the Cleveland metro will see over half an inch of much needed rain today. Yeah, as has been typical this year, the storms completely fall apart basically as they hit Cleveland and points east. Looks like the airport will have picked up at least a half inch, but considerably less as you head east. The convective debris should end our 90 degree streak. I'm doubtful Hopkins can rebound, especially after struggling to hit 90 yesterday with full sun all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Yeah, as has been typical this year, the storms completely fall apart basically as they hit Cleveland and points east. Looks like the airport will have picked up at least a half inch, but considerably less as you head east. The convective debris should end our 90 degree streak. I'm doubtful Hopkins can rebound, especially after struggling to hit 90 yesterday with full sun all day. </p> The second little round of storms did bring a decent amount of lightening, but only about 20 minutes of moderate rain...i probably picked up .3-.4" all together. Hopefully some of the storms over MI can work their way in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 .60 in the bucket so far. Breaking out in to sun now. Temps should soar pretty quickly... you can definitely feel the humidity. Hopefully we get another line to race across the lake again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Atmosphere has recovered somewhat...with 1500-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE to work with along with 30-40 kts of effective shear overhead. The CLE VAD is showing light SSW winds near the surface and 25-30 kt NW winds at 7k feet which will support storm organization. Given a bit of a wind shift and decent instability/dew point gradient stetching from near TOL to Akron we should see storms ride that boundary southeast into our area over the next couple hours. Mid level lapse rates are poor which may limit the severe threat but another round of strong to potentially severe storms seems likely this evening. If a storm can latch onto the aforementioned wind shift there may be a transient tornado threat mainly west/south of Cleveland. Given the better moisture and instability lies from Sandusky to MFD points east I do not believe these storms will die once they come off the lake into the eastern suburbs like this morning's storms did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Atmosphere has recovered somewhat...with 1500-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE to work with along with 30-40 kts of effective shear overhead. The CLE VAD is showing light SSW winds near the surface and 25-30 kt NW winds at 7k feet which will support storm organization. Given a bit of a wind shift and decent instability/dew point gradient stetching from near TOL to Akron we should see storms ride that boundary southeast into our area over the next couple hours. Mid level lapse rates are poor which may limit the severe threat but another round of strong to potentially severe storms seems likely this evening. If a storm can latch onto the aforementioned wind shift there may be a transient tornado threat mainly west/south of Cleveland. Given the better moisture and instability lies from Sandusky to MFD points east I do not believe these storms will die once they come off the lake into the eastern suburbs like this morning's storms did. Thanks for the analysis...and good call. Already looking dark to the north with ssw winds. You can really fell the humidity for a change.u How many times have we seen the strongest storms build back westward... Hopefully that doesn't change this time around. Could be a nice light show around sunset. I'll call Trent's BY for the wind damage bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Thanks for the analysis...and good call. Already looking dark to the north with ssw winds. You can really fell the humidity for a change.u How many times have we seen the strongest storms build back westward... Hopefully that doesn't change this time around. Could be a nice light show around sunset. I'll call Trent's BY for the wind damage bullseye. We'll see if the storms develop westward at all...outflow rushing out ahead of the storms from CLE points west...good squall lines hitting extreme NE OH and NW PA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 We'll see if the storms develop westward at all...outflow rushing out ahead of the storms from CLE points west...good squall lines hitting extreme NE OH and NW PA though. Outflow just came through. Looks like lake county will see the strongest storms. Amazing how storms behave so much differently when interacting with the lake. Normally you would have seen a line like this explode wswward towar the better instability. Starting to rain so no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Outflow just came through. Looks like lake county will see the strongest storms. Amazing how storms behave so much differently when interacting with the lake. Normally you would have seen a line like this explode wswward towar the better instability. Starting to rain so no complaints. Ya, the past few storm events higher dew points have pooled over western Lake Erie...however today over western/central Ohio where it didn't rain dew points really mixed down into the 50s, while dew points farther east have hovered in the upper 60s/lower 70s, which may have contributed to the stronger storms not building westward in this case. However, mesoanalyisis is analysing over 2000 J/KG SBCAPE (with some weak CINH however) and 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE (with a bit less of a cap) right over the eastern suburbs...with plenty of shear to maintain upright updrafts (bulk Richardson numbers between 20-30 indicating a good mix of instability and shear) so if some good updrafts can go up in the next half hour to hour farther west there may be a marginal severe threat yet from say Valley View towards Akron points east...but I'm not holding my breath given outflow is already rushing well ahead of any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Ya, the past few storm events higher dew points have pooled over western Lake Erie...however today over western/central Ohio where it didn't rain dew points really mixed down into the 50s, while dew points farther east have hovered in the upper 60s/lower 70s, which may have contributed to the stronger storms not building westward in this case. However, mesoanalyisis is analysing over 2000 J/KG SBCAPE (with some weak CINH however) and 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE (with a bit less of a cap) right over the eastern suburbs...with plenty of shear to maintain upright updrafts (bulk Richardson numbers between 20-30 indicating a good mix of instability and shear) so if some good updrafts can go up in the next half hour to hour farther west there may be a marginal severe threat yet from say Valley View towards Akron points east...but I'm not holding my breath given outflow is already rushing well ahead of any storms. To reflect on this...a relatively weak cell rolled in near Cleveland and began to intensify over southern Cuyahoga/Northern Summit counties...it eventually became severe warned and now tornado warned near Youngstown...near miss. Plenty of rain/lightning here with one more cell set to move through...all in all a good, rainy day across much of northeastern OH...many people who missed out this morning are cashing in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 To reflect on this...a relatively weak cell rolled in near Cleveland and began to intensify over southern Cuyahoga/Northern Summit counties...it eventually became severe warned and now tornado warned near Youngstown...near miss. Plenty of rain/lightning here with one more cell set to move through...all in all a good, rainy day across much of northeastern OH...many people who missed out this morning are cashing in now. Yes. I've had 2 additional storms this evening. The rain really cashed in. However, judging from the personal weather stations across Cuyahoga County on wunderground, it would appear that the Airport once again is the big winner in the county, at least doubling most other locales. My rain gauge failed after non use for the past month, but judging from radar estimates and nearby stations, I'm betting probably about 0.80 - 1.00" of much needed rain. It looks like Northeast Ohio was pretty much the "coolest" place in the US east of the Rockies today. It was actually funny, because when I woke up this morning around 7 and saw all the convective clouds on the satellite headed our way, I thought, even if it doesn't rain, there's no way we are getting into the low to mid 90s. I presume we scorch again tomorrow and with added humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Yes. I've had 2 additional storms this evening. The rain really cashed in. However, judging from the personal weather stations across Cuyahoga County on wunderground, it would appear that the Airport once again is the big winner in the county, at least doubling most other locales. My rain gauge failed after non use for the past month, but judging from radar estimates and nearby stations, I'm betting probably about 0.80 - 1.00" of much needed rain. It looks like Northeast Ohio was pretty much the "coolest" place in the US west of the Rockies today. It was actually funny, because when I woke up this morning around 7 and saw all the convective clouds on the satellite headed our way, I thought, even if it doesn't rain, there's no way we are getting into the low to mid 90s. I presume we scorch again tomorrow and with added humidity. Unfortunetely, we are going to fry the next 4 days, and areas that saw less than an inch of rain will be as dry as or drier than they were prior to today's rain due to evaportion. 850mb temps tomorrow will be a touch warmer than today and I'm not seeing any real strong forcing mechanisms tomorrow so we should be back into the low 90s (mid 90s NW OH). Any convection will be isolated and unorganized. Friday 850mb temps peak at 24-26C with deeper mixing than last Thursday...we should easily see 95-98 degrees again across the area again and 100 is a possibility if all goes well. On the brightside, the 12z Euro showed sub freezing 850mb temps just north of Lake Huron at 216 hours! With +6-8C 850s overhead...would be quite a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Picked up over an inch last night. There shouldn't be any shortage of instability today with the dew around 70 and temps in the 90's. Spc has most of the area in the slight risk. Enjoy the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Wasn't expecting a raging lake breeeze today... But it certainly made the heat a lot more tolerable. Congrats Sandusky... New severe storm capital of oh. Enjoy the fireworks tonight... The man made version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Wow, was hot hot hot today with heat index values between 100-105 all afternoon and into the evening. There was plenty of instability as NEOH mentioned, and things really blew in a hurry along the lake breeze after 8pm...storms were very electrified and quickly went severe, while people were waiting for fireworks. Hope no one was injured outside by these storms, although another active day in northern Ohio! Personally whitnessed pea sized hail in Auburn while driving home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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