Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OHweather]

Still a few nagging questions here...

1. Will there be a primary band at some point? Wind direction will favor it up the eastern lakeshore tonight (west or a bit south of due west) but parameters will be marginal...could see some weak banding producing like 1-3" tonight in northern Ashtabula and into Erie Counties. Tomorrow the winds go more west which may put Lake, Northern Geauga and more of Ashtabula counties into play...may even gain enough northerly component to put far NE Cuyahoga in play at well...parameters become decent tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night winds will be west or WNW with very favorable conditions with high inversions, moderate instability low shear through early Thursday AM and plenty of moisture. If we get a primary band tomorrow night especially it may produce.

2. How much snow will fall during the day Thursday. Even though the GFS does have some weak "reverse" WAA ongoing, it never develops an inversion and still supports conditional to moderate lake induced instability with low level lapse rates remaining greater than the wet adiabatics through into Friday. The Euro has a period of deep moisture well above 700mb with a weak sfc. trough moving through as well...could be a situation where any primary band swings inland, gives everybody a period of heavy snow and then a more disorganized blob of light to moderate snow, with focus on the higher terrain, then persisting Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

 

Either way, this is a good sounding off of the GFS, even with the modest mid level WAA, for Thursday afternoon:

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Thanks and best of luck to you too. Looks like the snow eventually became more convective in nature up your way as the afternoon progressed like down here. But I'm sure some of the higher terrain up in your area still was able to pick up a couple of inches regardless. Amazing how well the SW tier always does compared to the rest of Lake Erie's snowbelt.

 

Yeah they average 200+ a year usually, sometimes approaching 300 even...Crazy but I love it as I usually get a season ticket pass to Holiday Valley to ski/board. Yeah the diurnal affects definitely hindered development, but since about 5 it has been dumping here with near Blizzard conditions. Picked up around 3 inches for the day so far and still coming down hard. Looks like winds are beginning to change to a more Westerly flow which should end this soon. But the high winds seem to be creating multiple bands off the unfrozen lake...We shall see I guess. This will put me over 75 inches on the year, at least better than last year.

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah they average 200+ a year usually, sometimes approaching 300 even...Crazy but I love it as I usually get a season ticket pass to Holiday Valley to ski/board. Yeah the diurnal affects definitely hindered development, but since about 5 it has been dumping here with near Blizzard conditions. Picked up around 3 inches for the day so far and still coming down hard. Looks like winds are beginning to change to a more Westerly flow which should end this soon. But the high winds seem to be creating multiple bands off the unfrozen lake...We shall see I guess. This will put me over 75 inches on the year, at least better than last year.

What is your average per season?

[OHweather]

NMM/HRW showing the two possible solutions...HRW I believe sets up primary band Wednesday night over Cuyahoga county and drops .5-.75" QPF through the end of the run there...and a quarter to half inch over the rest of the primary belt. NMM shows no primary band but has a quarter to half inch of QPF over the higher terrain of the primary with snow still falling at the end of the run.

[OhioBlizzard]

NMM/HRW showing the two possible solutions...HRW I believe sets up primary band Wednesday night over Cuyahoga county and drops .5-.75" QPF through the end of the run there...and a quarter to half inch over the rest of the primary belt. NMM shows no primary band but has a quarter to half inch of QPF over the higher terrain of the primary with snow still falling at the end of the run.

Yeah it looks like a primary band. Should get some nice activity kicking up tomorrow night with the deeper moisture and instability working in. Still questionable how well the lake effect will hold up Thursday during the day with the strong diurnal effects even though parameters are good, but in any case would intensify again Thursday night. Should be solid advisory criteria for the primary, and even possibly warning. Close call for the northern secondary. Wouldn't surprise me if far northern areas came close to advisory amounts.

[OHweather]

The two BUF WRF's that updated last night show a primary over Cuyahoga tonight. So does the hi-res NAM. Given that I think I like the call for advisory in Cuyahoga...although will look more later today.

[Trent]

I'll have my eyes on what Hopkins can record. The past month has essentially been snow free on the west side with only a few tenths here or there and a one inch dusting.

I'll say CLE manages 1.8" from this. But not at one time.

[NEOH]

Yeah its pretty chilly out there today to say the least. High of about 30 and wind chill in the teens all day. Did you manage to pick anything up in lyndhurst? Looks like Northern Geauga/S. Lake had the most consistent activity today but kind of doubt anyone up there got more than an inch.

 

Just a dusting when I got home. Fluff snow... most of which probably melted on contact despite the cold temps.

[NEOH]

The two BUF WRF's that updated last night show a primary over Cuyahoga tonight. So does the hi-res NAM. Given that I think I like the call for advisory in Cuyahoga...although will look more later today.

 

4"-8" in my point forecast through Friday morning. Certainly not out of the question if a decent band can get going. Odd's look pretty good that someone is going to get dumped on. As usual, Chardon to Thompson to Pierpoint would be my guess.

[OHweather]

4"-8" in my point forecast through Friday morning. Certainly not out of the question if a decent band can get going. Odd's look pretty good that someone is going to get dumped on. As usual, Chardon to Thompson to Pierpoint would be my guess.

Those areas are getting hit now pretty well...not sure how well it's accumulating during the day but with temps in the upper 20's and a pretty good band I'd imagine it is. With the winds going more WNW tonight I think everything will shift SW. If the banding now can hold together the winds will hold pretty steady for 8-12 hours out of a WNW direction with good conditions, so someone would get dumped on. Everyone sees a burst of snow tomorrow as the disturbance moves through and then NW flow lake effect sets up tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow night in the higher terrain especially before diminishing Friday. If someone can sit under a band tonight they'll get drilled.

[NEOH]

Those areas are getting hit now pretty well...not sure how well it's accumulating during the day but with temps in the upper 20's and a pretty good band I'd imagine it is. With the winds going more WNW tonight I think everything will shift SW. If the banding now can hold together the winds will hold pretty steady for 8-12 hours out of a WNW direction with good conditions, so someone would get dumped on. Everyone sees a burst of snow tomorrow as the disturbance moves through and then NW flow lake effect sets up tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow night in the higher terrain especially before diminishing Friday. If someone can sit under a band tonight they'll get drilled.

 

You sound optimistic. I'd imagine once evening hits we'll see a primary band get its act together and essentially sit in place most of the night. 

 

It's snowing  in Chagrin now. Looking at the radar, it looks like a band pushed south off of the main band over the lake... kind of like an outflow. Strange.

[OhioBlizzard]

Overall pretty reasonable what CLE issued although a little surprised CLE did not also go warning for Lake and lakeshore Ashtabula. Can already see the diurnal effects on the band that set up this morning. Has broken up a lot in the last hour, although still has some good accumulating bursts associated with it. Someone up in the northern primary (maybe even as far south as central geauga in the higher terrain) might be able to pick up an inch or two the rest of the afternoon even with it becoming more cellular in nature considering they already have an established snowpack on the ground there.

 

With the winds out of the W-WNW tonight all of the primary should get into the mix. Things should flare up pretty good this evening after the sun goes down. Looks to be a WNW through the early overnight hours backing a bit more towards westerly after midnight. Nice area of convergence may try to set up after midnight so could possibly have a decent primary band roaming around somewhere in the central primary. Could stick around for a while, possibly through the morning before weakening and becoming more cellular in nature. Wouldn't be shocked if a few places have a half foot before tomorrow when diurnal effects kick in. Although with better moisture and instability tomorrow, the lake effect should hold together a bit better than today, but there will still be some weakening during the late morning/afternoon hours.

[dta1984]

Got a pretty good dusting in Solon so far but it has since stopped snowing.

[OHweather]

You sound optimistic. I'd imagine once evening hits we'll see a primary band get its act together and essentially sit in place most of the night. 

 

It's snowing  in Chagrin now. Looking at the radar, it looks like a band pushed south off of the main band over the lake... kind of like an outflow. Strange.

Cautiously. I can't make up my mind over whether or not a good primary band will form, which is strange for me

 

I think even if a primary band doesn't form the higher terrain will see several inches...however it's the primary band that would take things to the next level of actually being a decent event. Given notable lake effect doesn't happen often in the latter third of March anything is good I guess.

 

What I like is that the 500mb evolution today into tonight (and for that matter, low-mid level RH's, 850mb temps and the sfc too) looks a lot like what happened on April 6, 2007. That featured off and on snow squalls by day that were cellular in nature, much like now, and a primary band that dropped a foot on my house that night.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0406.php

[Trent]

Latest ARW much better than the NMM. QPF isn't that stellar on either, which are always notorious for jacked up precip amounts. But 3-6" of LES is notable for this time of year.

GFS throws a bone for a Sunday snowfall, but Euro has said not so fast. Still plenty of time to watch that one.

[BuffaloWeather]

What is your average per season?

 

105-115 inches. About 10-15 inches more than the Buffalo Airport (20 Miles North of here) averages at 97 inches per year (Although that is going to drop rapidly with the last 2 horrendous seasons) I think Buffalo airport is around 55 inches on the year, we fared quite better down here this year. I am not in the prime location for being as far south as I am in Erie County. 5-6 miles East of my location in the Boston Hills average around 140-150 inches per year. I am quite a bit closer to the lake than they are so less orographic lift at 800 feet elevation in comparison to them at 1300-1500+.

[OHweather]

Euro still misses you guys to the south Sunday night-Monday:

CLE:
 

MON 00Z 25-MAR  -1.1    -5.6    1008      70      55    0.00     541     534    MON 06Z 25-MAR  -1.5    -6.1    1007      77      82    0.01     537     531    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -3.1    -6.5    1009      85      56    0.02     537     530  CAK is almost identical temp wise (a degree or two warmer) with like .12" QPF. 

[Trent]

One of the BUF WRF updated and has a short lived, albeit intense primary band overnight dropping into downtown around rush hour. Could be an interesting morning if that plays out.

[OHweather]

One of the BUF WRF updated and has a short lived, albeit intense primary band overnight dropping into downtown around rush hour. Could be an interesting morning if that plays out.

Yeah, has it developing around 6z and fizzling around 12z...and would be several inches at the wrong time in the wrong area for sure.

[NEOH]

There have been some intense snow showers in Chagrin today. Seems like they are lining up along the 480/422 corridor. Ground is mostly covered with snow on the trees as well. The flakes are huge.

 

We'll see what happens tonight. It certainly won't be a let down of the LES busts at this time of the year.

 

 

[OhioBlizzard]

105-115 inches. About 10-15 inches more than the Buffalo Airport (20 Miles North of here) averages at 97 inches per year (Although that is going to drop rapidly with the last 2 horrendous seasons) I think Buffalo airport is around 55 inches on the year, we fared quite better down here this year. I am not in the prime location for being as far south as I am in Erie County. 5-6 miles East of my location in the Boston Hills average around 140-150 inches per year. I am quite a bit closer to the lake than they are so less orographic lift at 800 feet elevation in comparison to them at 1300-1500+.

Yeah with the large changes in elevation in SW NY, average snowfall really varies a lot in short diistances. Although 40 inches in 6 miles is very impressive. But 500-700 ft in elevation makes a huge difference.

[OHweather]

There have been some intense snow showers in Chagrin today. Seems like they are lining up along the 480/422 corridor. Ground is mostly covered with snow on the trees as well. The flakes are huge.

 

We'll see what happens tonight. It certainly won't be a let down of the LES busts at this time of the year.

My guess is there is some convergence in that area...eastern Cuyahoga into Geauga...we'll see if that's where it sticks once the sun goes down and the temp differential between land and water becomes significant again.

[OhioBlizzard]

One of the BUF WRF updated and has a short lived, albeit intense primary band overnight dropping into downtown around rush hour. Could be an interesting morning if that plays out.

Certainly a possibility. Convergence will be there for a primary band somewhere in the central primary. Could be a disaster for morning commute

[OhioBlizzard]

Not too surprising, but CLE upgraded Lake and lakeshore Ashtabula Counties.

 

With a shortwave moving through this evening and solar energy diminishing should hopefully see a pretty quick flare up with a WNW flow. D shear will be a little high at first so might take a bit to get more organized however. I might even get in on a little action before the flow begins to back later in the night.

[OHweather]

I think as the low level flow goes from its current WNW to more west later this evening and the land cools, convergence will develop near the  lakeshore. With high inversions, moderate to extreme instability and no shortage of ambient moisture an intense band will develop from near or just north of Trent's house through Cleveland and into the eastern suburbs, with the area between 322 and 422 being favored as the winds just aloft will have enough of a northerly component to keep the band inland a bit, when combined with a 10-20 kt flow. The primary band will probably get disrupted in the morning however everyone sees a burst of snow with the shortwave. The 18z NAM and latest RAP show lapse rates in the lower levels at near the dry adiabatic lapse rates late tonight and into tomorrow morning, so the instability will be fairly significant.

 

[NEOH]

I think as the low level flow goes from its current WNW to more west later this evening and the land cools, convergence will develop near the  lakeshore. With high inversions, moderate to extreme instability and no shortage of ambient moisture an intense band will develop from near or just north of Trent's house through Cleveland and into the eastern suburbs, with the area between 322 and 422 being favored as the winds just aloft will have enough of a northerly component to keep the band inland a bit, when combined with a 10-20 kt flow. The primary band will probably get disrupted in the morning however everyone sees a burst of snow with the shortwave. The 18z NAM and latest RAP show lapse rates in the lower levels at near the dry adiabatic lapse rates late tonight and into tomorrow morning, so the instability will be fairly

Good call on the band location so far. And here I thought you were just throwing us eastern burb folks a bone. Picked up a quick inch already from the snow that pushed through. Radar looks quiet to the west but I'm sure there will be redevelopment.... Somewhere between 422 and the lakeshore.

[OHweather]

Good call on the band location so far. And here I thought you were just throwing us eastern burb folks a bone. Picked up a quick inch already from the snow that pushed through. Radar looks quiet to the west but I'm sure there will be redevelopment.... Somewhere between 422 and the lakeshore.

We'll see. Looks like it's weakening now but it looks like there's convergence in the area...typically in late March/April the bands start showing their true colors around 10pm...will see how this trends over the next couple hours.

[OhioBlizzard]

Activity slowly is starting to come together. Convective activity is slowly waning now that the sun has been down for a good hour and thermally driven convergence should begin to strengthen. Currently directional shear is near 40 degrees from surface to H7 which is not conductive for well organized bands. In the next 4-5 hours the winds should become more aligned in the H7-H8 region as winds turn more westerly from the current WSW flow. This should allow for more consistent banding to take place, not to mention H85 temps dropping to near -15. Given the above the far northern secondary to the central primary probably will have the best activity through midnight or a little after. While after midnight, flow backs a little and it could shift things north more into the central primary region. Could get interesting after midnight when shear becomes more manageable but we'll see. Had some decent bursts here. Oh and go Cavs!

[OHweather]

Activity slowly is starting to come together. Convective activity is slowly waning now that the sun has been down for a good hour and thermally driven convergence should begin to strengthen. Currently directional shear is near 40 degrees from surface to H7 which is not conductive for well organized bands. In the next 4-5 hours the winds should become more aligned in the H7-H8 region as winds turn more westerly from the current WSW flow. This should allow for more consistent banding to take place, not to mention H85 temps dropping to near -15. Given the above the far northern secondary to the central primary probably will have the best activity through midnight or a little after. While after midnight, flow backs a little and it could shift things north more into the central primary region. Could get interesting after midnight when shear becomes more manageable but we'll see. Had some decent bursts here. Oh and go Cavs!

Yes!

 

On a weather related note, the clouds are cooling somewhat north of Lorain, so the current band shouldn't weaken completely anytime soon. Colder cloud tops moving into the western basin, which should help pre-seed things in a couple of hours and let things ramp up as convergence continues to set up.

[Trent]

Just updated:

 

 

Ground here is coated from that earlier flare up. Hopefully helps with cold ground/lake temp differential.