OhioBlizzard Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 They somehow got almost 5 innings in, while there was 8" of snow on the ground at my house It's too bad you can't recall the late April 2005 snow...that was certainly an epic. The UL positioning Tuesday-Thursday has trended SW slowly over the last 2-3 days and is now close to the happy zone for late season notable LES in NE OH...could be interesting. If I remember correctly, I think 2005 shut down the Geauga county carnival or something of that nature. I remember seeing rides covered in snow. Maybe it was the Ashtabula county carnival, can't remember for sure. That one brings back fond memories and it was definitely one for the books . Next week could be fun. Moist cyclonic flow with 850s getting possibly sub -15 at times has my attention. Turning out to be quite the month of March especially after last years mega torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 If I remember correctly, I think 2005 shut down the Geauga county carnival or something of that nature. I remember seeing rides covered in snow. Maybe it was the Ashtabula county carnival, can't remember for sure. That one brings back fond memories and it was definitely one for the books . Next week could be fun. Moist cyclonic flow with 850s getting possibly sub -15 at times has my attention. Turning out to be quite the month of March especially after last years mega torch. Yeah...tonight was my turn to forecast on the website I contribute to...started mentioning the lake effect, because we've seen this story before (although not recently this late) and it can't be underestimated. I'm not sure how quickly the winds will get enough of a northerly component though to drive the snow into more of Cuyahoga County and potential northern Summit/Portage...may take some time which may limit potential outside of Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula. It was April 2-3, 2005 that shut down the carnival...I think it may have been Geauga County although I may be wrong...I believe Geauga and possibly Ashtabula were placed under a state of emergency with that storm due to heavy snow on the roads and widespread tree damage. Some of those areas saw over a foot and a half with the early April 2005 storm. The early April 2005 storm was impressive enough (I saw like 6 or 7" at my location and you may have seen a tad less, I'll have to look), and then April 23-25 came along and blew it out of the water by a long shot west of Geauga County. Incredible month. Edit: I probably saw 7-8" in early April 2005 and in Portage County Hiram Rapids saw like 11" and Kent 5"...so you probably saw 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Toledo Ohio There was rain, unknown precipitation,(sleet?) and freezing rain yesterday and this morning. Coming up Monday: Craziness!! Rain or freezing rain likely before 10am, then rain. High near 44. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. However, the new Winter Weather Advisory is for SOUTH OHIO. Ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 In Chagrin yesterday there were chunks of ice falling from the sky. It wasn't formed enough to be ice pellets, yet in the process of freezing before it hit the ground. Irregular and clear shapes. Big enough to hurt...like frozen rain. Still amazed at the North Atlantic block next weekend. CLE 850 hPa temps per the ECMWF go from -13 C to -4, all on a northerly wind component. Gotta love warm air advection originating from Quebec and Hudson's Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Had to go up to Chautauqua county again today. Lake effect started around conneaut and was nearly moderated for a time in nw pa on 90 into New York. Looks like they picked up about an inch overnight an might get another inch today. About 5-6 inches on the ground here in Chautauqua county where I'm at. Edit: apologize for the pic not being straight . Doing this from my phone and not sure how to rotate pics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 IWX WRF showing a persistent primary band developing Tuesday evening and last through the end of the run 6z Thursday, oscillating probably between Lake/Northern Geauga and the 422 corridors. That would bury the eastern suburbs...I still don't want to get too excited yet (that will change tomorrow) mainly because I won't be able to come home and see anything that happens, but as I mentioned on the last page, these cut off lows immediately to our NE in the spring that just sit and spin are known for producing LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 IWX WRF showing a persistent primary band developing Tuesday evening and last through the end of the run 6z Thursday, oscillating probably between Lake/Northern Geauga and the 422 corridors. That would bury the eastern suburbs...I still don't want to get too excited yet (that will change tomorrow) mainly because I won't be able to come home and see anything that happens, but as I mentioned on the last page, these cut off lows immediately to our NE in the spring that just sit and spin are known for producing LES. That'd be exciting. Seems to show the band wobbling near here as well (but I've seen that before). However, if April 2007 sets any precedent, it shows that 2 feet can fall here from a lake effect snow band. It was interesting, being near the lakeshore actually helped here yesterday, albeit it was very small accums. I was quite surprised yesterday when I drove a half mile south of here and the snow on the ground completely disappeared. The past 5 weeks or so here have been an absolute kick in the face. It's been cold, but it hasn't snowed much at all. This March has seen less snow than last year's record warmest March! And seeing the snow fall in every direction but here has been the icing on the cake. Fortunately, I'll be in Fairbanks, Alaska the second week of April. So I'm guaranteed one last taste of winter unless they have some freak heat wave that melts their 20"+ snowpack by then. Would be absolutely hilarious if that's when CLE picks up their late season snowstorm ... mark your calendars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That'd be exciting. Seems to show the band wobbling near here as well (but I've seen that before). However, if April 2007 sets any precedent, it shows that 2 feet can fall here from a lake effect snow band. It was interesting, being near the lakeshore actually helped here yesterday, albeit it was very small accums. I was quite surprised yesterday when I drove a half mile south of here and the snow on the ground completely disappeared. The past 5 weeks or so here have been an absolute kick in the face. It's been cold, but it hasn't snowed much at all. This March has seen less snow than last year's record warmest March! And seeing the snow fall in every direction but here has been the icing on the cake. Fortunately, I'll be in Fairbanks, Alaska the second week of April. So I'm guaranteed one last taste of winter unless they have some freak heat wave that melts their 20"+ snowpack by then. Would be absolutely hilarious if that's when CLE picks up their late season snowstorm ... mark your calendars. I'll be home the weekend of April 5-7 helping family move...when does your plain take off? Yeah, I almost forgot that we actually got a quick little LES event early last March before we torched away. I have a good feeling that even CLE may surpass last March this week, it will only take an inch or so. In all seriousness, there is some past precedent for these slow moving UL's nearby dropping some serious snow. Obviously, it's still a bit early to pin down when and where any bands may set up, but the potential for a primary band *somewhere* appears to be there Tuesday-Thursday night. The last time I said that, around January 20, some places ended up with over a foot and a half of snow...although it did somewhat miss most of you guys. The parameters appear to top out late Wednesday through Thursday night, although they will be decent enough Tuesday-Wednesday morning as well for some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Certainly starting to look pretty favorable for the primary belt with this weeks lake effect. 0z gfs has a solid 24-36 hrs of a general westerly flow (although nam shifts flow around a bit more) before things begin to shift more northerly. Shear looks to be fairly minimal so possibility for a strong primary band is there depending on convergence. Would be nice to have a better consensus on keeping the lower levels up to the 700mb moist throughout, but with a large fetch and wide open lake, we have some wiggle room. Wouldn't be surprised if CLE hoists watches for lake, geauga, ashtabula, and cuy. counties tomorrow afternoon or at latest early Tuesday. IMBY, I'll have to wait till most likely sometime on Thursday to get into some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Certainly starting to look pretty favorable for the primary belt with this weeks lake effect. 0z gfs has a solid 24-36 hrs of a general westerly flow (although nam shifts flow around a bit more) before things begin to shift more northerly. Shear looks to be fairly minimal so possibility for a strong primary band is there depending on convergence. Would be nice to have a better consensus on keeping the lower levels up to the 700mb moist throughout, but with a large fetch and wide open lake, we have some wiggle room. Wouldn't be surprised if CLE hoists watches for lake, geauga, ashtabula, and cuy. counties tomorrow afternoon or at latest early Tuesday. IMBY, I'll have to wait till most likely sometime on Thursday to get into some of the action. Yeah, CLE mentioned future watches in the afternoon AFD. Believe it or not, during the April 2007 event there were some stretches during which the 700mb humidity fell below 70%...the positioning of the UL with that event is soo close to what the models are showing with this upcoming event. That event mainly missed you to your north although you got grazed at times, which looks to be happening with this upcoming event. The 850mb temps in April 2007 were generally between -10 and -15, with the progged temps in this event ranging from -12C to -16C until they begin warming on Friday. The lake in 07 wasn't much warmer than it is right now, just a few degrees above freezing...there were chunks of ice floating around on the 2nd before the 3rd soared into the 80's for a few hours during the afternoon. This event will be a bit shorter of a duration than the April 2007 event which was a solid 84 hours...this event will be somewhere around 72 hours (Tuesday afternoon-Friday afternoon) with the rather good conditions lasting 24-36 hours late Wednesday through Thursday it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 CLE upgraded me to a winter storm warning for today. They are calling for an inch of snow/sleet and then a quarter inch or more of freezing rain before changing over to rain. Currently getting sleet but had freezing rain earlier.Surprised they went with a warning for me. I'm already up to 31. Highly doubt the warning verifies for my area. Far NE Portage has a better chance, but still pretty questionable even they verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Minor 45 minute glaze before switching to plain rain here. Looks to be over now too. Now all eyes to tomorrow night through Thursday! I have a feeling I'll be making one last local snow chase with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Toledo Ohio KTOL 181824Z 09009KT 1 3/4SM -RAKTOL 181542Z 08010G18KT 1 3/4SM -FZRA KTOL 181528Z 08009KT 1 3/4SM UP (UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION) KTOL 181507Z 08013G19KT 1 1/4SM -FZRAKTOL 181252Z 07014G19KT 5SM -PLKTOL 181147Z 08013KT 9SM SNPL KTOL 181133Z 08012G19KT 8SM FZRAPL KTOL 181052Z 07014G19KT 9SM -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Toledo Ohio KTOL 181824Z 09009KT 1 3/4SM -RA KTOL 181542Z 08010G18KT 1 3/4SM -FZRA KTOL 181528Z 08009KT 1 3/4SM UP (UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION) KTOL 181507Z 08013G19KT 1 1/4SM -FZRA KTOL 181252Z 07014G19KT 5SM -PL KTOL 181147Z 08013KT 9SM SNPL KTOL 181133Z 08012G19KT 8SM FZRAPL KTOL 181052Z 07014G19KT 9SM -SN Yeah, far NW OH and areas like Portage, inland Ashtabula, Trumbull and Mahoning Counties took a while to climb above freezing. I'm not sure if a quarter inch of accretion occurred anywhere in Ohio, however Ravenna took until 2:30 to rise to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It was pretty ugly in Chagrin this morning... nice glaze on everything but its melting now. Haven't followed the potential LES event, but reading the posts above, it looks like this could be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Another busted CLE call. Ended up with just over a 0.1" of freezing rain. Issuing a winter storm warning was a mistake. CLE had the right idea with a WWA but then changed it at the last minute. Really not sure where they got a quarter inch of freezing rain from. Was shocked when I woke up and saw that I was under a Winter Storm warning. Maybe points further NE did a little better, but I highly doubt anyone in Portage verified the quarter inch of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, far NW OH and areas like Portage, inland Ashtabula, Trumbull and Mahoning Counties took a while to climb above freezing. I'm not sure if a quarter inch of accretion occurred anywhere in Ohio, however Ravenna took until 2:30 to rise to 33. Ravenna managed to stay colder a bit longer than my location, but even when it was a degree or two below freezing earlier the precip didn't really freeze on contact to much of anything after about 10 am since surfaces were not all that cold and the high sun angle. Areas farther NE probably did better, but I also doubt that anyone got a quarter inch in Portage. I heard it was pretty bad out in Trumbull, but wasn't able to get an actual amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It was pretty ugly in Chagrin this morning... nice glaze on everything but its melting now. Haven't followed the potential LES event, but reading the posts above, it looks like this could be decent. It was pretty ugly in Athens this morning...I got out of my early class at 8:30 and it was storming...was actually a little bit of CG lightning and probably heard 6 CC rumbles during my ~10 minute walk back. This LES may be frustrating and rewarding at the same time...conditions become marginally favorable tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday with a primarily W or even WSW flow, so the LES will probably be up the eastern lake shore and may miss many of you...it could drift south Wednesday for a few hours before winds back again ahead of the next, more potent shortwave Wednesday night. I think the best snow will be Wednesday night-Thursday night...this looks like a classic enhancement event, with deep synoptic moisture well above 700mb with the winds going NW, and no real inversion. It won't be extremely unstable but I can see a persistent area of moderate snow that lasts 24 hours over the primary and potentially secondary belts Wednesday night-Thursday night, with at least advisory amounts if this solution verifies. Another busted CLE call. Ended up with just over a 0.1" of freezing rain. Issuing a winter storm warning was a mistake. CLE had the right idea with a WWA but then changed it at the last minute. Really not sure where they got a quarter inch of freezing rain from. Was shocked when I woke up and saw that I was under a Winter Storm warning. Maybe points further NE did a little better, but I highly doubt anyone in Portage verified the quarter inch of freezing rain. It's really hard to get a quarter inch of accretion over such a short duration...even if a quarter inch of liquid falls, with temps just a tad below freezing if that quarter inch falls in 3-4 hours a lot of it will run off before it can freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's really hard to get a quarter inch of accretion over such a short duration...even if a quarter inch of liquid falls, with temps just a tad below freezing if that quarter inch falls in 3-4 hours a lot of it will run off before it can freeze. Agreed. Also, this time of year, roads, tree branches, and other surfaces of the like are solar energy magnets with their low albedos (~0.04-0.18). This helped to virtually eliminate any more ice accretion after about 10-11 am (at my location) even with it still being about 30-31 out. Doesn't take long for the late march sun to heat up darker surfaces even when its slightly below freezing and cloudy out. Considering the marginal temps, I would have thought CLE would have taken these factors into consideration when deciding on advisory/warning, but that wasn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 CLE now sitting at a ~16" snowfall deficit for the year. I think that's now the largest deficit of the season. Locally has been a bummer of a winter, especially for the west side. CLE needs 9 more inches of snow this March just to get to NORMAL. You'd think with this cold pattern that's been somewhat active we could at least muster more than an inch at a time here, but it's been hard to buy any appreciable snow the past 6 weeks (unlike the rest of the northern half of the US). I'm hopefully optimistic at the enhancement/lake effect opportunities this week, but it's discouraging to see them continually getting pushed a day back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 IWX WRF now has a decent blob of over .5" QPF through 12z Friday and an area of .8"+ likely between 322 and 422. I'm still not terribly optimistic about tomorrow-Wednesday...there will certainly be lake snows but they will be well east and aside from a brief period tomorrow evening, the instability and moisture won't be great. I could see someone as far southwest as NEOH getting an inch or two through Wednesday but the rest will be well east. With a lobe of the PV/upper low rotating overhead Wednesday night and Thursday, it looks like a good bet that synoptic moisture will be deep along with some synoptic lift, on top of moderate lake induced instability with no real inversion to worry about. If the winds stay more WNW through Thursday there could be a killer primary band that affects a good chunk of Cuyahoga County, and maybe northern Summit/Portage. If they go more NW we see the larger but stable blob of snow. Either scenario has the potential to be interesting to watch. I suppose it's worth noting that I can see areas on the near-west side like Trent getting narrowly missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Starting to get fairly interested in this. Should be a good late season event for us. Also looks like some potential down the road at the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z runs tampering the excitement a bit. Nam and gfs really keep the best low level moisture in SW NY and NW PA until Wed. Night, although there will be periods of decent moisture up to the 750 mb level in NE OH. With a WSW flow tomorrow afternoon and early evening, the majority of the lake effect should be confined to NW PA and SW NY although the lake shore could see some snow showers. Tomorrow night, flow briefly becomes more westerly so the central and northern primary should get into the action at least briefly. This however also corresponds with drier air working into 700-800mb, so doesn't look to be anything significant, maybe a couple of inches. Wednesday still a bit up in the air. GFS would keep the lake effect going in the primary, while nam would move it back out over the lake/lakeshore for a time. Wednesday night - Friday morning is what has my attention (Secondary should finally get in on the snow). Upper low will pull in nice moisture well above 700mb level by early Thursday while instability peaks. With flow becoming NW by Thur afternoon, activity should affect areas further inland. Would not be shocked to see some advisory type amounts in the northern primary by Wed. evening although given the long duration to get those totals, might not be advisory worthy up to that point. Thur-Fri primary and secondary should both stand a good chance of getting some decent snow. With all the rain we got today, unless the ground can freeze up some before it snows, accumulations might be reduced from the ground up. I know at my place it is unbelievable wet right now and would diminish accumulations to an extent. Northern snowbelt may have been able to hold onto some snowpack which would help, but won't know for sure until tomorrow's spotter reports come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Starting to get fairly interested in this. Should be a good late season event for us. Also looks like some potential down the road at the end of the weekend. Not sure if the Northern Ohio snow hole can be broken this year. They have gone E,W,N,and S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z runs tampering the excitement a bit. Nam and gfs really keep the best low level moisture in SW NY and NW PA until Wed. Night, although there will be periods of decent moisture up to the 750 mb level in NE OH. With a WSW flow tomorrow afternoon and early evening, the majority of the lake effect should be confined to NW PA and SW NY although the lake shore could see some snow showers. Tomorrow night, flow briefly becomes more westerly so the central and northern primary should get into the action at least briefly. This however also corresponds with drier air working into 700-800mb, so doesn't look to be anything significant, maybe a couple of inches. Wednesday still a bit up in the air. GFS would keep the lake effect going in the primary, while nam would move it back out over the lake/lakeshore for a time. Wednesday night - Friday morning is what has my attention (Secondary should finally get in on the snow). Upper low will pull in nice moisture well above 700mb level by early Thursday while instability peaks. With flow becoming NW by Thur afternoon, activity should affect areas further inland. Would not be shocked to see some advisory type amounts in the northern primary by Wed. evening although given the long duration to get those totals, might not be advisory worthy up to that point. Thur-Fri primary and secondary should both stand a good chance of getting some decent snow. With all the rain we got today, unless the ground can freeze up some before it snows, accumulations might be reduced from the ground up. I know at my place it is unbelievable wet right now and would diminish accumulations to an extent. Northern snowbelt may have been able to hold onto some snowpack which would help, but won't know for sure until tomorrow's spotter reports come out. Yeah, it never looked like the Tuesday-Wednesday portion would be great. We'll see if parts of the primary can pick up 3-5" over the course of like 30 hours, which isn't too hard. GFS and NAM didn't really back off the potential Wednesday night-Friday AM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Still a few scattered patches of snow around this morning. Not much though. When I drove home yesterday there was still a decent snow cover in spots. Temps must have spiked last night before the front came through. Hopefully everyone will get a few inches out of this. Sure feels much more like February than mid-March out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Yeah, it never looked like the Tuesday-Wednesday portion would be great. We'll see if parts of the primary can pick up 3-5" over the course of like 30 hours, which isn't too hard. GFS and NAM didn't really back off the potential Wednesday night-Friday AM though. Yeah Wednesday night-Friday should be interesting. Diurnal effects will be a hindrance Thursday during the day, but Wednesday night and Thursday night should have some decent banding before things shutdown Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Yeah Wednesday night-Friday should be interesting. Diurnal effects will be a hindrance Thursday during the day, but Wednesday night and Thursday night should have some decent banding before things shutdown Friday. Diurnal effects are not having a hindrane currently with LES up this way. Already an inch on the roads. Quite surprised as its near peak sun. But when the temperatures are 26,27 its not to hard for the snow to accumulate quickly. Hopefully you guys can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Diurnal effects are not having a hindrane currently with LES up this way. Already an inch on the roads. Quite surprised as its near peak sun. But when the temperatures are 26,27 its not to hard for the snow to accumulate quickly. Hopefully you guys can cash in. Thanks and best of luck to you too. Looks like the snow eventually became more convective in nature up your way as the afternoon progressed like down here. But I'm sure some of the higher terrain up in your area still was able to pick up a couple of inches regardless. Amazing how well the SW tier always does compared to the rest of Lake Erie's snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Still a few scattered patches of snow around this morning. Not much though. When I drove home yesterday there was still a decent snow cover in spots. Temps must have spiked last night before the front came through. Hopefully everyone will get a few inches out of this. Sure feels much more like February than mid-March out there. Yeah its pretty chilly out there today to say the least. High of about 30 and wind chill in the teens all day. Did you manage to pick anything up in lyndhurst? Looks like Northern Geauga/S. Lake had the most consistent activity today but kind of doubt anyone up there got more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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