Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah, we seem to be in agreement (my forecast got buried as the last post on the last page )

If temperatures were a few degrees colder this would probably push warning criteria in the primary belt and advisories would probably be needed in the secondary belt. Should be widespread convective snow showers outside of the Snowbelt as well on Wednesday...will be pretty unstable.

Nice write up. Missed it somehow, but went back and caught it.

 

Yeah, just a few degrees would have made a big difference. Am rather hopeful for tomorrow night though from about 4-5ish till about ~3am. Could be some pretty nice banding flaring up for a short while once we lose the daytime heating that could put down a few inches (if not more in a couple of locations) before things shut off rather quickly. Going to probably be a tough call on CLE as whether or not to hoist advisories for parts of the primary belt.

[Trent]

Why couldn't the GFS have looked like this back in January!?! Tons of opportunities ... but mostly wasted on mid to late March.

[OhioBlizzard]

Thanks for the forecasts guys. So much for a mild/dry Spring. Some thing is not right about snow when its light until 8pm.

Your welcome. Yeah the models are looking pretty chilly/cold for the next week or two. And I agree, it does feel kind of strange having snow when it stays light that late. Didn't use to be that way when the time change was around Easter.

[Chinook]

Just remember-- the Apps Runners existed once (perhaps they still do.) This is March 23 1968, a large trough amplification and an Apps Runner. This brought snow from Mississippi all the way to Detroit.

 

 

 

 

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Why couldn't the GFS have looked like this back in January!?! Tons of opportunities ... but mostly wasted on mid to late March.

Yeah isn't that the truth. GFS has them lined up one after the other. Given the way this year has gone, they will all probably cut west of us.

[OhioBlizzard]

Just remember-- the Apps Runners existed once (perhaps they still do.) This is March 23 1968, a large trough amplification and an Apps Runner. This brought snow from Mississippi all the way to Detroit.

 

1968_03_23_DWM.gif

They are on the endangered weather species list . On a serious note, I really hate that we have to count on apps runners for big snows since they are so rare. Too bad ohio wasn't a few hundred miles further west, so we could be on the good side of glcs.

[NEOH]

The squall that just came through Chagrin was a wall of snow. Visibility was almost zero. Sun is back out now.

[Trent]

2-3" clipper for Friday night looking better and better. We'll have the advantage of it being during the overnight hours so that'll help with accums.

Would much rather have a big bomb, not sure how I feel about mid March nuisance snows.

[NEOH]

2-3" clipper for Friday night looking better and better. We'll have the advantage of it being during the overnight hours so that'll help with accums.

Would much rather have a big bomb, not sure how I feel about mid March nuisance snows.

 

I'd rather get a bomb and call it a Winter. 2-3" that melts hours after it falls isn't all that enjoyable. Its only going to make the mud worse. If I didn't have a young son, or a dog that run around outside I wouldn't mind more snow. The ground is extremely soft around here. Long range certainly looks chilly... what a difference a year makes.

[OhioBlizzard]

Got to give credit, where credit is due. CLE nailed this one. I only ended up with 0.8" and the highest report in NE OH came in at 2.0" and most other locations were under an inch. Busted call on my part.This year looks likes it may turn out to be just as bad for snow as last year. Just hasn't been NE Ohio's year for snow. Its been just awful watching areas S,W,E, and North get snow while we get nothing. Almost would rather have a huge SE ridge develop and have everyone torch than watch everyone else get snow while we get nothing.

[OHweather]

2-3" clipper for Friday night looking better and better. We'll have the advantage of it being during the overnight hours so that'll help with accums.

Would much rather have a big bomb, not sure how I feel about mid March nuisance snows.

Yeah...boundary layer will probably be marginal through Friday evening, but most models except for the warm outlying Canadian show near or a bit more than .1" QPF in the 0z-6z and 6z-12z Saturday time periods with 850mb temps well below freezing, so should be good for some light accumulations up your way. A tick north though and you guys see rain or a mix much of the night, so not a slam dunk yet.

 

With a strong -NAO and upper level low north of New England Sunday into Monday, if precip can begin before sunrise Monday (Euro/CMC say yes, GFS holds off precip till after 12z Monday) it will probably be cold enough for a period of ice/snow Sunday night into Monday before flipping over to a chilly rain Monday...some lake effect will likely occur Wednesday next week although the airmass will be fairly dry so it will be hard to see significant amounts, at this point.

 

Next system coming in next Friday may be cold enough initially for more front end mixing potential at the very least.

 

I'll let you all know how many snowflakes I see down here over the next week...saw half an inch yesterday from 3 potent snow showers, but not optimistic about my chances going forward...very hard to see front end mixed precip down here in mid-late March...although the pattern has certainly turned back the clock a few weeks compared to climo for you guys in northern Ohio.

[OhioBlizzard]

Had some computer problems so haven't been able to post any pictures from SW (Chautauqua County) NY last weekend but here are a few. They probably don't have much on the ground anymore, but it was impressive last weekend considering NE OH had already had bare ground for a good period beforehand. Still looked mid winter by our standards and the piles of snow were massive. I'd move up there in a heartbeat if I could.

[OhioBlizzard]

I'd rather get a bomb and call it a Winter. 2-3" that melts hours after it falls isn't all that enjoyable. Its only going to make the mud worse. If I didn't have a young son, or a dog that run around outside I wouldn't mind more snow. The ground is extremely soft around here. Long range certainly looks chilly... what a difference a year makes.

I hear you on the mud, its a mess in my yard too. Really can't get out and do much of anything because of it. Wish the soil in NE Ohio was a bit more of a sandy type instead of clay.

[OHweather]

Probably a bit overdone, but NAM/GFS came south at 18z...with the GFS showing a sold 2-3" snowfall tomorrow night and the hi-res NAM actually showing over 4" for much of the Cleveland and Akron metros. The pro here is that it will be precipitating lightly to moderately pretty much non-stop from 2pm tomorrow near the lakeshore through early Saturday morning...con is that the snow may not stick initially...1-3" is a good call for much of CLE's CWA sans the southwestern most counties, with most of you guys in the Cleveland metro seeing 2-3"...there is the potential for more if the snow starts sticking early on in the event as it will be fairly long duration.

 

 

And nice pics Ohioblizzard.

[Trent]

Decent model consensus for the snow tonight.

 

Euro has about 1.4"

NAM has 2.0"

GFS has 2.5"

 

Nothing to really get worked up over. But should make for a scenic morning. Half of that will be gone by afternoon, too.

[FL510]

The global models are showing a very cold air mass in place for most of the rest of the month:

 

 

KCLE's current monthly temperature departure is -1.9°F and of course that takes into account the warm air we had last weekend.  In March of 2012 the departure from normal was +13.0°F.   Perhaps we could end the month around -5°F or so I'm thinking.

 

Considering the likelihood of very cold air the rest of the month, it's possible Cleveland could end up being 15-20°F colder this March than last March.  That seems very extreme.

 

The 10-day ECMWF shows the 850 hPa 0°C line being once again down near the Gulf coast:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Probably a bit overdone, but NAM/GFS came south at 18z...with the GFS showing a sold 2-3" snowfall tomorrow night and the hi-res NAM actually showing over 4" for much of the Cleveland and Akron metros. The pro here is that it will be precipitating lightly to moderately pretty much non-stop from 2pm tomorrow near the lakeshore through early Saturday morning...con is that the snow may not stick initially...1-3" is a good call for much of CLE's CWA sans the southwestern most counties, with most of you guys in the Cleveland metro seeing 2-3"...there is the potential for more if the snow starts sticking early on in the event as it will be fairly long duration.

 

NAM total snow.JPG

 

And nice pics Ohioblizzard.

Thanks. Yeah the southern shift certainly helped out and models overnight have kept us in pretty good shape. Like you mentioned, it might have trouble accumulating at first. I'm hopeful with the cold nights we have had of late it shouldn't take too long to stick once it starts. Was just outside and ground was pretty frozen although low to mid 40s today will certainly warm up the ground a bit. Not going to lie, I'm pretty excited for tonight's 1-3" after this winter we have had . Optimistic we might even be on the higher end of that range based on some of the overnight runs. Sadly enough this will probably be the best synoptic event in over a month.

[OhioBlizzard]

The global models are showing a very cold air mass in place for most of the rest of the month:

 

2013031500_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

 

KCLE's current monthly temperature departure is -1.9°F and of course that takes into account the warm air we had last weekend.  In March of 2012 the departure from normal was +13.0°F.   Perhaps we could end the month around -5°F or so I'm thinking.

 

Considering the likelihood of very cold air the rest of the month, it's possible Cleveland could end up being 15-20°F colder this March than last March.  That seems very extreme.

 

The 10-day ECMWF shows the 850 hPa 0°C line being once again down near the Gulf coast:

 

f240.gif

Yeah its hard to believe that this time last year we were in the 70s heading to the 80s for highs. Last year I think I even had to cut the grass before march was over which is extremely early. This year is the complete opposite and doesn't look like we are headed for warm weather anytime soon.

[Trent]

With the cold air around what are the odds of an Easter 2007 repeat

[OHweather]

With the cold air around what are the odds of an Easter 2007 repeat

Well, I'll be home helping some family members move April 5-7. The dates line up

[Trent]

And NAM goes north and says pretty much nothing south of Lake County. With this March looking colder than normal, it would be highly unusual to not get significant snows. Marches at CLE that average colder than 36 average 15" of snow. Somehow I think just getting normal March snowfall will be a stretch here, even given the cold pattern.

[OHweather]

Re...an April 4-8 2007 repeat...

 

 

vs this

 

 

Matches the above composite with strong west-based blocking...ridging into Alaska...a trough just off the west coast...weak ridging over the west...and a closed low over head or just to our east...Tuesday-Thursday may feature significant lake effect to our north, but the UL will close off too far northeast for anything notable over northeastern OH (although I'm sure the Snowbelt will see off and on snow showers Tuesday-Thursday).

[NEOH]

Snow started around 6pm... No mix just snow. Ground is white but not sticking to the streets yet. Looks like the heaviest precip might slip SE of CLE tonight.

[NEOH]

Re...an April 4-8 2007 repeat...

 

vs this

 

Matches the above composite with strong west-based blocking...ridging into Alaska...a trough just off the west coast...weak ridging over the west...and a closed low over head or just to our east...Tuesday-Thursday may feature significant lake effect to our north, but the UL will close off too far northeast for anything notable over northeastern OH (although I'm sure the Snowbelt will see off and on snow showers Tuesday-Thursday).

I'll never forget that event. Once in a lifetime that late in the season.... Hopefully. I had close to 30 inches of cement.... Back breaking stuff.

[OHweather]

I'll never forget that event. Once in a lifetime that late in the season.... Hopefully. I had close to 30 inches of cement.... Back breaking stuff.

Yeah I had around 30 in Solon...I think a little more fell in between our two locations...I saw the most intense rates that I can remember (5" in an hour and a half, and it wasn't snowing the whole time) with that storm and the totals would have been impressive in mid-winter, let alone April. Snowed out the Indians home opening series, which didn't seem to hurt them that year...will never forget Wedge out there arguing with the umps over them delaying the game with near white out conditions ongoing

 

I still think the April 23-25, 2005 event was better, or at the very least more of a rare bird. Saw somewhere around 18" over the course of 36 hours in Solon with that one, and that takes the cake for the most damaging weather event I've witnessed...no other snow/ice storms, wind storms or severe storms have topped that amount of tree damage in Solon since I've been old enough to remember...tornado in November 2002 was worse but over a much narrower area. The late April 2005 event dropped impressive amounts outside of the Snowbelt too...4.0" at TOL on 22 consecutive hours of snow...LPR reported 41 hours of consecutive snow (no amount was given after extensive research)...MFD reported 10.1" of snow with 38 hours straight of snowfall...and CLE reported 12.4" of snowfall with snow falling for 38 hours straight, with rain/snow mixed reported for a couple of hours on either side of that 38 hours of snow...and CAK also logged 5.8" and 6.3" at YNG...amazing to say the least.

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah I had around 30 in Solon...I think a little more fell in between our two locations...I saw the most intense rates that I can remember (5" in an hour and a half, and it wasn't snowing the whole time) with that storm and the totals would have been impressive in mid-winter, let alone April. Snowed out the Indians home opening series, which didn't seem to hurt them that year...will never forget Wedge out there arguing with the umps over them delaying the game with near white out conditions ongoing

 

I still think the April 23-25, 2005 event was better, or at the very least more of a rare bird. Saw somewhere around 18" over the course of 36 hours in Solon with that one, and that takes the cake for the most damaging weather event I've witnessed...no other snow/ice storms, wind storms or severe storms have topped that amount of tree damage in Solon since I've been old enough to remember...tornado in November 2002 was worse but over a much narrower area. The late April 2005 event dropped impressive amounts outside of the Snowbelt too...4.0" at TOL on 22 consecutive hours of snow...LPR reported 41 hours of consecutive snow (no amount was given after extensive research)...MFD reported 10.1" of snow with 38 hours straight of snowfall...and CLE reported 12.4" of snowfall with snow falling for 38 hours straight, with rain/snow mixed reported for a couple of hours on either side of that 38 hours of snow...and CAK also logged 5.8" and 6.3" at YNG...amazing to say the least.

I'd side with 2005 as well. SE MI also got walloped pretty good with over a foot in spots. Amazing storm considering it was almost May.

[NEOH]

Picked up 2 inches of wet snow overnight/this morning. Went out to Russell this afternoon and there were pockets of deeper snow... as close as 91/Cedar Rd. I can't remember the last time we got "wet" snow after this winter of fluff.

[NEOH]

Yeah I had around 30 in Solon...I think a little more fell in between our two locations...I saw the most intense rates that I can remember (5" in an hour and a half, and it wasn't snowing the whole time) with that storm and the totals would have been impressive in mid-winter, let alone April. Snowed out the Indians home opening series, which didn't seem to hurt them that year...will never forget Wedge out there arguing with the umps over them delaying the game with near white out conditions ongoing

 

I still think the April 23-25, 2005 event was better, or at the very least more of a rare bird. Saw somewhere around 18" over the course of 36 hours in Solon with that one, and that takes the cake for the most damaging weather event I've witnessed...no other snow/ice storms, wind storms or severe storms have topped that amount of tree damage in Solon since I've been old enough to remember...tornado in November 2002 was worse but over a much narrower area. The late April 2005 event dropped impressive amounts outside of the Snowbelt too...4.0" at TOL on 22 consecutive hours of snow...LPR reported 41 hours of consecutive snow (no amount was given after extensive research)...MFD reported 10.1" of snow with 38 hours straight of snowfall...and CLE reported 12.4" of snowfall with snow falling for 38 hours straight, with rain/snow mixed reported for a couple of hours on either side of that 38 hours of snow...and CAK also logged 5.8" and 6.3" at YNG...amazing to say the least.

 

Yeah, that was funny. Streets were even covered during daylight hours but the umps must have thought the snow would magically disappear from the field.

 

For some reason I can't recall the 2005 late April snow. Darn I'm getting old.

[OHweather]

Yeah, that was funny. Streets were even covered during daylight hours but the umps must have thought the snow would magically disappear from the field.

 

For some reason I can't recall the 2005 late April snow. Darn I'm getting old.

They somehow got almost 5 innings in, while there was 8" of snow on the ground at my house

 

It's too bad you can't recall the late April 2005 snow...that was certainly an epic.

 

The UL positioning Tuesday-Thursday has trended SW slowly over the last 2-3 days and is now close to the happy zone for late season notable LES in NE OH...could be interesting.

[OhioBlizzard]

Picked up 2 inches of wet snow overnight/this morning. Went out to Russell this afternoon and there were pockets of deeper snow... as close as 91/Cedar Rd. I can't remember the last time we got "wet" snow after this winter of fluff.

Nice. How much was out in Russell and were you able to hold onto the snow or did the high sun angle burn it off? We didn't really get anything worth mentioning in Streetsboro. I also know solon didn't get much more than an inch from what friends there told me. It was a sharp cutoff. In general it seems that Geauga, Ashtabula counties had the highest totals. Looks like Geauga got a general 3-5" (excluding maybe the extreme southern part) and Ashtabula had a general 3-6" . NW PA also had some good totals. Elevation seems like it played a large role (at least in Geauga's case) as temps were pretty marginal unless you were in Ashtabula county.