Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[FL510]

 

Here are all the airport precip totals last night for the CLE CWA. 

 

MFD: 0.19" (Mansfield)

CAK: 0.14" (Akron-Canton)

MNN: 0.12" (Marion)

FDY: 0.08" (Findlay)

BJJ: 0.05" (Wooster)

AKR: 0.03" (Akron)

TOL: 0.00" (Toledo)

CLE: 0.00" (Cleveland)

YNG: 0.00" (Youngstown)

 

Appears to be right in line with model consensus the past 36 hours. 

 

Another, what in the world was CLE thinking, forecast.

Some mightly mediocre looking stratocumulus clouds here in Chagrin this morning.  That's about all I can report.

[Trent]

We had clear skies last night for sunset, and this morning, mostly clear skies. Perhaps we had a few hours of some moderate partly cloudy in the overnight.

 

MFD reporting a 2" snow depth and CAK reporting a 1" snow depth. 

 

I'm sure quite a few of the counties that CLE had in the advisory didn't even muster a snowflake. ODOT cameras around Mansfield show a moderate 2-3" coating and clear roads. Looks like quite a bit of school closings down that way, but I'm sure those were all pre-emptively cancelled because of the warnings for up to 8". 

 

I bet Marengo, the southernmost city in the CLE CWA picked up near 5" judging by the reports just to the north of Columbus, which are in the 5-6" range. Those bottom 3 counties would have been the only ones I'd have considered for a warning and even then that'd probably have been a stretch.

[NEOH]

I noticed several snow grains on my car this morning. Hopefully the folks in central and southern ohio got a decent snowfall. Partly cloudy skies right now.

[FL510]

I saw on CoCoRAHS this morning that Shelby County got over 9" and some places around Columbus received 8".

[OhioBlizzard]

Really no visible evidence of snow at dawn this morning in Northern Portage. Maybe saw a flurry, but that was it. Looks like I-76 was the cutoff for measurable snow. Pretty boring weather-wise for the next week.

[OhioBlizzard]

I noticed several snow grains on my car this morning. Hopefully the folks in central and southern ohio got a decent snowfall. Partly cloudy skies right now.

Looking at ILN's snowfall map, areas NW of 71 did well down there with widespread 6-8" amounts. Even areas SE of 71 did pretty good for southern Ohio standards I would assume. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/events/20130305/

[Trent]

The CLE PNS is a disaster. Looks like a 4" maximum near Marion. CLE could have easily justified no headlines for the entire CWA, especially for a low impact middle of night light sub 4" snow.

[Trent]

Beautiful sunshine all day here. Not a cloud in the sky at lunch. So much for that cloudy forecast.

Radio station was just ripping the forecasts in general for last night and today. I wonder if the local tv stations went high on snowfall for areas, particularly Akron/Canton?

[OHweather]

Close to my yearly hiatus from weather. Getting too warm for snow, but too early for severe yet.

[OhioBlizzard]

Close to my yearly hiatus from weather. Getting too warm for snow, but too early for severe yet.

Yeah I hear you on that one. The next 6 weeks are probably my least favorite time of the year in NE Ohio, aka mud season. Mainly cold/chilly with rain. Then when it is finally nice out, you cant get out and enjoy it because everything is a soggy mess 

[OhioBlizzard]

Just looking through some spotter reports and noticed that the Pittsburgh area got crushed pretty good from last nights storm. Saw some reports in the area of up to a foot. Even some locations a good 40-50 miles north of the city (2 counties from Y-town) got close to 7-8". Most locations surrounding Northern Ohio really did pretty well this winter in terms of average snowfall when compared to our area.

[Trent]

 

 

I know these often over estimate the lower totals, but it almost makes it worse considering that we can't even muster the white shading that indicates scattered dustings of snow.

[NEOH]

Winter's over... and it has been another lackluster one in NE Ohio. I've picked over 50" for the season so it hasn't been a complete disaster. While we still have opportunities for snow I'd rather just flip to mild and dry so it's not a slop fest outside.

 

It can snow and stick in March. Found a pic from March '08... back in the good old days.

[OhioBlizzard]

March7.png

 

 

I know these often over estimate the lower totals, but it almost makes it worse considering that we can't even muster the white shading that indicates scattered dustings of snow.

Wow, never seen a map that bad for NE Ohio. Going to have to save that one for a future avatar. NE OH is the new SE MI.

 

Winter's over... and it has been another lackluster one in NE Ohio. I've picked over 50" for the season so it hasn't been a complete disaster. While we still have opportunities for snow I'd rather just flip to mild and dry so it's not a slop fest outside.

 

It can snow and stick in March. Found a pic from March '08... back in the good old days.

Nice pic. That was a great storm. How far over 50" are you on the year? I would think youd be close to 70"-75" given how a lot of the lake effect events were in the central to northern primary and I've managed 54" down here. I know a spotter a bit SW of Kirtland has reported 81" on the year, but they are probably a bit NE of your location.

[OhioBlizzard]

Heading up to SW New York this afternoon for a day or two. Going to be staying in Chautauqua County so it will be interesting to see the snow depth increase once into PA and then into New York. Its amazing how quickly the depth always increases once you get off 90 onto 86 and get into New York due to elevation and the massive amounts they see over the winter being lake erie's bulls eye . Hoping to see a good 6-10" snow-pack based on spotter reports.

[NEOH]

Wow, never seen a map that bad for NE Ohio. Going to have to save that one for a future avatar. NE OH is the new SE MI.

 

Nice pic. That was a great storm. How far over 50" are you on the year? I would think youd be close to 70"-75" given how a lot of the lake effect events were in the central to northern primary and I've managed 54" down here. I know a spotter a bit SW of Kirtland has reported 81" on the year, but they are probably a bit NE of your location.

 

Thanks. That was a great storm. I've forgotten what a deep snow pack looks like. I honestly have no idea how far over 50". If I had to guess I'd say 60-65".... which is 20-30" below normal for the season. This area was on the southern edge of the better lake effect events but still did pretty well... but not like the Kirtland area. I just lost interest in keep track of snowfall this year.

[FL510]

Rock star lake breeze today as the warm weather over-performs just a couple miles inland.

[dta1984]

What a beautiful spring teaser day!

 

I see Cle is starting a little hype about a le event tues night

 

 

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TUE THROUGHWED...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE MID AND UPPERTROUGH MOVING IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED WILL AID IN THE PROCESS. THESHSN MAY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT THEACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE SNOWBELT. THINKTHIS COULD BE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT SO WILL INCREASE POPS. TOOEARLY TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE SPOTS WITH 6INCHES OR MORE OVER THE TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVENING PERIOD.

[OhioBlizzard]

What a beautiful spring teaser day!

 

I see Cle is starting a little hype about a le event tues night

 

 

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TUE THROUGHWED...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE MID AND UPPERTROUGH MOVING IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED WILL AID IN THE PROCESS. THESHSN MAY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT THEACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE SNOWBELT. THINKTHIS COULD BE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT SO WILL INCREASE POPS. TOOEARLY TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN ACCUMULATION BUT COULD SEE SPOTS WITH 6INCHES OR MORE OVER THE TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVENING PERIOD.

Yeah looks like there should be a decent 18 to 24 hr period for lake effect as of right now. Lake should have opened up a lot too. Unfortunately ground will be pretty warm so that could cut totals some, but its march, so to be expected I guess. Don't agree with them on the primary belt being the only areas that see accumulating snow. Secondary belt definitely could see accumulating snow out of this too. But were still a few days out yet so we'll see.

[OhioBlizzard]

Got back yesterday from SW New York. It was neat to see the snow cover increase driving up 90. No snow at all in Ohio, then about 10 miles into NW PA, snowpack rapidly began to appear and increased pretty quick. By the time I got off on Interstate 86 it was pretty solid looking. I stayed in SW Chautauqua County and there was about 5" of cemet like snow on the ground. Definitely not lake effect fluff like snow, was probably multiple previous lake effect events compacted together. It really looked mid winter up there by NE Ohio standards. They put our winters to shame lol. I would love to move up there. I'll try to post a few pics later that I took.

[OHweather]

Lake should be essentially 100% ice free...with plenty of synoptic moisture rotating through, 850mb temps eventually falling to -12 to -14C by Wednesday morning with inversions of 7-8k+ feet Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, and winds that slowly veer from W to more NW from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as a shortwave moves through, I'd expect moderate to at times heavy snow to occur downwind of the lake. With 850mb temps well below -10C during the day Wednesday snow should accumulate...although may compact quickly at times when it is not snowing...CLE's afternoon AFD not nearly as optimistic but I would not be at all surprised to see advisories or warnings eventually be needed for certainly the primary and northern Summit, Portage and Trumbull counties may need at least an advisory as well. If the current models hold (always an if I suppose) this should be a short duration but relatively decent event.

I'm back in Athens and will pray for something close to the 12z Euro to come true. It was 75 here today.

[NEOH]

Lake should be essentially 100% ice free...with plenty of synoptic moisture rotating through, 850mb temps eventually falling to -12 to -14C by Wednesday morning with inversions of 7-8k+ feet Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, and winds that slowly veer from W to more NW from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as a shortwave moves through, I'd expect moderate to at times heavy snow to occur downwind of the lake. With 850mb temps well below -10C during the day Wednesday snow should accumulate...although may compact quickly at times when it is not snowing...CLE's afternoon AFD not nearly as optimistic but I would not be at all surprised to see advisories or warnings eventually be needed for certainly the primary and northern Summit, Portage and Trumbull counties may need at least an advisory as well. If the current models hold (always an if I suppose) this should be a short duration but relatively decent event.

I'm back in Athens and will pray for something close to the 12z Euro to come true. It was 75 here today.

It was downright balmy today... Nice weekend. Hopefully you didn't get sun burn in the southern sunshine. It's that rare time of the year when I hope snowfall forecasts bust on the bad side. The ground has definitely thawed up here so whatever falls shouldn't last long.

[NEOH]

Got back yesterday from SW New York. It was neat to see the snow cover increase driving up 90. No snow at all in Ohio, then about 10 miles into NW PA, snowpack rapidly began to appear and increased pretty quick. By the time I got off on Interstate 86 it was pretty solid looking. I stayed in SW Chautauqua County and there was about 5" of cemet like snow on the ground. Definitely not lake effect fluff like snow, was probably multiple previous lake effect events compacted together. It really looked mid winter up there by NE Ohio standards. They put our winters to shame lol. I would love to move up there. I'll try to post a few pics later that I took.[/quot

Nice. It's a different world up there. Amazing how close it is but the snowfall gradient between Ohio and wny is crazy. Once you hit

mayville snow seems to suddenly increase.

[OHweather]

It was downright balmy today... Nice weekend. Hopefully you didn't get sun burn in the southern sunshine. It's that rare time of the year when I hope snowfall forecasts bust on the bad side. The ground has definitely thawed up here so whatever falls shouldn't last long.

If I was home I would root on the snow...I really do like all types of weather, sunny and warm days like today please me as much as they please normal people, but snow is still number 1 and it can snow in June for all I care (as long as a nasty squall line accompanies that cold front from hell).

The severe -NAO and -AO will make it hard to see warmth on any sustained basis until the last week of March. There is some bomb potential (probably higher to our east) through the next two weeks too if the Euro is right and the PNA doesn't go strongly negative. Even with a negative PNA we won't see warmth or severe wx any time soon.

[OhioBlizzard]

Nice. It's a different world up there. Amazing how close it is but the snowfall gradient between Ohio and wny is crazy. Once you hit

mayville snow seems to suddenly increase.

Yeah it is amazing the difference for less than 2 hrs away and neat how the snow totals/depths increase dramatically in certain areas due to elevation and other factors. Parts of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus average around 200" a year if not a bit higher. Imagine if parts of the NE OH belt averaged that much. Not even sure Chardon/Thompson/Pierpont residents could handle those kinds of amounts on a yearly basis without crying uncle.

[OHweather]

Looking over last night's 0z and 6z model runs...still think late Tuesday night through a good chunk of Wednesday night will be relatively snowy across northeastern Ohio...with some lake help.

 

MODIS imagery yesterday showed a broken sheet of ice near the southern lakeshore. With temperatures well into the 60's yesterday and remaining above 50 last night and through most of today, with strong southerly winds and rain fall to boot, the ice sheet will in all likelihood be pushed well off shore and broken up considerably. Although lake water temps are not much above freezing, ice should not hinder lake effect.

 

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning the coldest portion of the upper level trough will rotate through...with sfc to 500mb temp differentials approaching 40C. With plenty of low-mid level moisture and a sfc trough/cold front moving through late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, instability snow showers should be abundant both in and out of the Snowbelt Wednesday. Given the high sun angle and warm ground it is uncertain whether or not widespread accumulations will occur, but this could be a situation where heavier snow showers do drop a quick inch of snow...if it snows hard this time of year it does still stick during the day. Wednesday afternoon as the flow gains a more northerly component I have a feeling topographic lift may allow for more persistent snow showers to occur in the higher terrain stretching sporadically from Richland county northeast through northern Ashland County, Medina County, southern/eastern Cuyahoga County and into the primary snowbelt. This is where accumulations of 1 to locally 2" appear most likely through Wednesday afternoon. With lake water temps comparable to over land temperatures during the day Wednesday, I don't expect the lake to add anything to the atmospheric instability...although there may be just enough moisture flux to allow for more concentrated snow showers in the snowbelt, especially in the higher terrain.

 

Wednesday evening moisture remains in the lower levels and inversions don't crash to 5k feet (and then lower) until 6z Thursday and moisture beneath the inversion remains sufficient through around 6z as well. With a fairly well aligned WNW to NW flow Wednesday evening this should allow for true lake effect processes to take over for a time Wednesday evening with snow showers tapering after midnight and likely ending or reducing to light snow/flurries by Thursday morning.

 

With all this said, can see local accumulations up to an inch by Wednesday morning in the Snowbelt...general accumulations of an inch or less outside of the Snowbelt on Wednesday, except for 1-2" in the higher terrain from Richland County northeast through the Snowbelt...with local 3" amounts possible in the Snowbelt...with another 1 to locally 3" in the primary and secondary belts Wednesday night and little elsewhere...for total snowfall of an inch or less in general...1-3" in the higher terrain outside of the Snowbelt...2-4" in the secondary Snowbelt...and 3 to locally 7" in the primary Snowbelt, especially in the higher terrain. The lower terrain in the Snowbelt may struggle to see the lower end of those ranges.

When breaking that down, this is sub-advisory criteria for the secondary Snowbelt and an argument can be made for an advisory in the primary Snowbelt should these amounts verify...given CLE usually will issue an advisory if they think any portion of a given county will hit criteria, they will likely issue them in the primary belt eventually. If the lake was a few degrees warmer than the land on Wednesday I would expect potentially more accums in the Snowbelt during the day Wednesday, but you won't see true lake effect if the lake isn't warmer than the surrounding land.

[OhioBlizzard]

The lake on the back of my property iced out over the weekend. Always wait to say winter is "officially" over until that happens because when the lakes are frozen it just doesn't feel like spring yet. The geese are certainly happy lol. On another note, going to be a pretty wet afternoon. Just started raining here.

[OhioBlizzard]

After looking at some of the 0z data, it continues to look like we have a decent 18-24 hr period for snow. By Wednesday morning, instability will become sufficient for lake effect. Given that the lake is temp is about +1 C and 850 temps should bottom out around -12 to -14 C, the instability will certainly be there. Flow looks to be mainly WNW but will try to veer NW towards the end of the event. Moisture will be good up to the 650 mb level and with a nearly wide open lake, ice will not be a problem for the first time in a while.

My main concern during the daytime on Wed, will be surface temps. If we can hold in the low 30's then I'd favor more accumulating snow, but if we sneak up into the 34-35 range, this will significantly disrupt the lake effect, not to mention the wet ground, and ground temps around 34-35. It could be a fall then melt scenario unless an area can stay under consistent banding which may be hard to come by if the thermally driven convergence for lake effect weakens. Wednesday night, will provide a better opportunity for accumulating snow before the lake effect should begin to shut off in the early hours of Thursday morning as much drier air begins to work in.

Right now I'd lean towards a general 1-3" in most areas with 3-6" in the primary belt (away from the lake)/extreme northern secondary belt. Advisories may be needed for portions of the primary belt.

[OHweather]

After looking at some of the 0z data, it continues to look like we have a decent 18-24 hr period for snow. By Wednesday morning, instability will become sufficient for lake effect. Given that the lake is temp is about +1 C and 850 temps should bottom out around -12 to -14 C, the instability will certainly be there. Flow looks to be mainly WNW but will try to veer NW towards the end of the event. Moisture will be good up to the 650 mb level and with a nearly wide open lake, ice will not be a problem for the first time in a while.

My main concern during the daytime on Wed, will be surface temps. If we can hold in the low 30's then I'd favor more accumulating snow, but if we sneak up into the 34-35 range, this will significantly disrupt the lake effect, not to mention the wet ground, and ground temps around 34-35. It could be a fall then melt scenario unless an area can stay under consistent banding which may be hard to come by if the thermally driven convergence for lake effect weakens. Wednesday night, will provide a better opportunity for accumulating snow before the lake effect should begin to shut off in the early hours of Thursday morning as much drier air begins to work in.

Right now I'd lean towards a general 1-3" in most areas with 3-6" in the primary belt (away from the lake)/extreme northern secondary belt. Advisories may be needed for portions of the primary belt.

Yeah, we seem to be in agreement (my forecast got buried as the last post on the last page )

If temperatures were a few degrees colder this would probably push warning criteria in the primary belt and advisories would probably be needed in the secondary belt. Should be widespread convective snow showers outside of the Snowbelt as well on Wednesday...will be pretty unstable.

[NEOH]

Thanks for the forecasts guys. So much for a mild/dry Spring. Some thing is not right about snow when its light until 8pm.