NEOH Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets hope that the weather shows its unpredictable side.... That's about the only thing to hang our hat's on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With the stationary western Atlantic low retrograding southwestard across Maine, it doesn't seem like a great pattern for Ohio snow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim16ir.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html I wouldn't be surprised if the primary low tracks further south than predicted Tuesday night before the secondary forms along the Atlantic seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Classic bait and switch on the NAM, GFS, SREF, GEFS over the past few days. Got me. Wow. I'll be smoking cirrus tomorrow night, that's for sure. Athens will get crushed, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Classic bait and switch on the NAM, GFS, SREF, GEFS over the past few days. Got me. Wow. I'll be smoking cirrus tomorrow night, that's for sure. Athens will get crushed, relatively speaking. Ouch. I thought you might head back early for the storm. How many times have we seen storms over perform on the nw side? Just about every one seems to do so. We don't often find ourselves in the position of hoping for a nw trend but now is the time to start wishing. My expectations are low but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just doing a quick browse this could be CLE's first back to back season without a 6" storm since '75/76 and 76/77. The current largest storm of this season is the lowest of the past 36 seasons. Nice find on that stat. Out of all the winters, I would have never have guessed the mid 70s for 2 years in a row of no 6" snowfalls. It's so ridiculous you just have to laugh. Both the NAM and GFS are stingy with the northern extent of the precip shield. Heavy clouds may be the only thing we see at the lakeshore. Prospects for snow even to the south aren't looking good. Yeah, when southern and central ohio are getting synoptic storms in early march and we aren't something just isn't right . If the storm was going NW it probably wouldn't be as frustrating, but at this point of the year, its either a northern ohio snowstorm or north of us. Really can't believe that at this time of the year, southern ohio is going to get clobbered with snow while the far northern part of the state will be nearly completely missed. When it isn't your year, it isn't your year. Our snow dome this year is rivaling that of SE MI. CLE had northern portage down for 3-6", but they may have lowered us since. No way we get that. I will be happy with 2-3" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ouch. I thought you might head back early for the storm. How many times have we seen storms over perform on the nw side? Just about every one seems to do so. We don't often find ourselves in the position of hoping for a nw trend but now is the time to start wishing. My expectations are low but you never know. Yeah never fails, always hoping for a SE trend and rarely get it. Now want a NW trend and it continues to go SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just curious, was anyone able to hold onto their snowpack today? Sun torched through mine with ease except in shaded/wooded areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Shade/wooded have snow. Everything else was bare by 1pm. Never ceases to amaze me how quick sun can torch snow pack even with temps below freezing this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just curious, was anyone able to hold onto their snowpack today? Sun torched through mine with ease except in shaded/wooded areas. Not a chance my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was fully expecting CLE to have scaled back their warnings and advisories this morning. They still have Toledo under an advisory for 3-5" of snow. They must be expecting a huge last minute shift to the north. Most guidance now has nothing for Toledo. Even for Mansfield, the highest model output I can find is 2.7" ... hardly worthy of a warning, let alone an advisory. It would be exceptional coup by CLE to actually pull this one off accurately, but I have a feeling this storm will be filed under the bust category. Warnings and advisories should never be issued for marginal events 30+ hours before onset of precipitation, especially when model trends are for lower and lower snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 And the 6z NAM says, Ohio FAIL. The snow maxima for the CLE forecast area is actually in southeast Stark County with a whopping 3". South of us looks to have significant mixing issues. Looks like Summit and Portage Counties manage an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At this point I'll take 2" of snow that pastes the trees FWIW, last night's 0z/6z runs were probably too far south, although I don't think we'll see this thing come back to where it was modeled two days ago...dusting near the Lakeshore, 2-3" for Akron and 3-6" down along the route 30 corridor seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 At this point I'll take 2" of snow that pastes the trees FWIW, last night's 0z/6z runs were probably too far south, although I don't think we'll see this thing come back to where it was modeled two days ago...dusting near the Lakeshore, 2-3" for Akron and 3-6" down along the route 30 corridor seems reasonable. After reading the latest disco from CLE, I still don't understand the warnings and especially the advisories for Toledo. I guess they are really banking on a huge northern shift of the precipitation shield. Last night's models were probably too south, but 6" amounts into Mansfield seems like a stretch. I'll hold out at an inch tops IMBY. We've got bright sunshine that still has to push out before it can snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 500mb part of the system is closed off and down to 534dm, which was not shown to occur until late this evening yesterday. The radar is actually blossoming over northern IN, although with that little spoke extending westward from that large low still sitting off of the New England coast helping to keep a cool and dry flow going, there will be a ton of dry air to fight over far NE OH.The shortwave should turn from its current SE direction to a more ENE one shortly as it runs into some weak ridging over the Ohio Valley, so it looks good for a good chunk of the precip shield to impact Northern Ohio south of the lakeshore counties...if we didn't have that large UL sitting to our east (or even if it was just a bit weaker) we'd be golden...anyways, don't be shocked if current forecasts are outperformed slightly, although at this point I don't see anything that supports any kind of significant bust on the high-side for any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 After reading the latest disco from CLE, I still don't understand the warnings and especially the advisories for Toledo. I guess they are really banking on a huge northern shift of the precipitation shield. Last night's models were probably too south, but 6" amounts into Mansfield seems like a stretch. I'll hold out at an inch tops IMBY. We've got bright sunshine that still has to push out before it can snow tonight. The radar actually looks close for TOL, although my guess is advisory criteria amounts slide just south of Lucas County. The warning for Mansfield was never justified. I'm sure there will be a lot of 3-4" amounts in Richland county and maybe local 5" amounts if things work out well, but that's marginal for an advisory and not close to neeeding a warning. Given that much of Richland county is rather rural and the wet nature of the snow making snow removal a bit tougher I can see the argument for an advisory for Richland but certainly not a warning. Ashland County is worse...seeing as though liquid equivalents will probably be slowly diminishing from west to east given the energy transfer that will occur right over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 You know it's spring when a northerly wind is keeping BKL 6 degrees colder than CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You know it's spring when a northerly wind is keeping BKL 6 degrees colder than CLE. Lol. Get used to it... only another 3 months before the lake warms. Sunny and upper 30's out there. You wouldn't even know there was a storm to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Shade/wooded have snow. Everything else was bare by 1pm. Never ceases to amaze me how quick sun can torch snow pack even with temps below freezing this time of year. Yeah, me too. The radar actually looks close for TOL, although my guess is advisory criteria amounts slide just south of Wood County. The warning for Mansfield was never justified. I'm sure there will be a lot of 3-4" amounts in Richland county and maybe local 5" amounts if things work out well, but that's marginal for an advisory and not close to neeeding a warning. Given that much of Richland county is rather rural and the wet nature of the snow making snow removal a bit tougher I can see the argument for an advisory for Richland but certainly not a warning. Ashland County is worse...seeing as though liquid equivalents will probably be slowly diminishing from west to east given the energy transfer that will occur right over head. In CLEs defense I will say that having traveled I71 many times during snowstorms, the ashland/richland county area does extremely well compared to counties south and north in synoptic events, esp. richland. The elevation there plays a huge role and many times helps them squeeze out a good inch or two extra. Ashland was certainly a bad call as they are farther north/east and elevation does not play as big a role there, but I can't fault them for Richland county. I see your point though as they may indeed come up a bit short of warning criteria, but given the way things looked yesterday, and the terrain down there, I really can't blame them too much. Traveling down there in those hills in snow is a nightmare, nothing like up in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z euro txt gives the portage county airport in Ravenna 0.02" total. Some of the new high res data coming in cuts off 0.1" qpf around akron. Being a good bit NE, I'll be happy with an inch and thrilled with 2". Another NE Ohio fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, me too. In CLEs defense I will say that having traveled I71 many times during snowstorms, the ashland/richland county area does extremely well compared to counties south and north in synoptic events, esp. richland. The elevation there plays a huge role and many times helps them squeeze out a good inch or two extra. Ashland was certainly a bad call as they are farther north/east and elevation does not play as big a role there, but I can't fault them for Richland county. I see your point though as they may indeed come up a bit short of warning criteria, but given the way things looked yesterday, and the terrain down there, I really can't blame them too much. Traveling down there in those hills in snow is a nightmare, nothing like up in our neck of the woods. I agree that the terrain helps, but even so I don't think much if any of the county will hit 6"+. It was a bit better looking yesterday. I understand that being a bit more rural and hillier may cause sub-warning criteria snows to have a higher impact in portions of the county, although I guess I'm just a criteria freak and am not thrilled about issuing warnings for sub-criteria amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z euro txt gives the portage county airport in Ravenna 0.02" total. Some of the new high res data coming in cuts off 0.1" qpf around akron. Being a good bit NE, I'll be happy with an inch and thrilled with 2". Another NE Ohio fail. Where do you get your ECMWF text data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Temps is 32 at CLE, 31 and Burke, and 43 at Cuyahoga county . We'll all be knee deep in heavy clouds tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where do you get your ECMWF text data? My guess is he gets it off of Accu pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Temps is 32 at CLE, 31 and Burke, and 43 at Cuyahoga county . We'll all be knee deep in heavy clouds tomorrow morning. I'm going to be smoking cirrus tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 This was posted in another thread, but this site is from Norway and basically just uses the exact EURO raw output to produce a forecast. So basically, it's the EURO verbatim: http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Ohio/Cleveland/ You might have to change the settings back to English and play around with the hour by hour/long term forecast on the sides. It also gives the raw QPF output in mm (5mm liquid equivalent is roughly 2 inches snow) So without paying for a subscription you can easily type in a city name and get the QPF for a site that's not near an ASOS station. The EURO wasn't too kind to Northern Ohio with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm going to be smoking cirrus tonight. Yeah, we all will. If any precip does fall... You'll have a much better chance at seeing accums than just 10-20 miles to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Radar returns are just fizzling as they move north. Latest Rapid Refresh gives no one in the CLE CWA more than 3 or 4" and even then, that's at the extreme southern parts down by Mt. Vernon and Marion. It will be very interesting to see the PNS issued by CLE in the morning. I'll be shocked to see any warning criteria snowfall reported, and I'd be surprised if there are more than 2 or 3 observers who even muster advisory level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I agree that the terrain helps, but even so I don't think much if any of the county will hit 6"+. It was a bit better looking yesterday. I understand that being a bit more rural and hillier may cause sub-warning criteria snows to have a higher impact in portions of the county, although I guess I'm just a criteria freak and am not thrilled about issuing warnings for sub-criteria amounts No, I certainly understand where you are coming from as I'm pretty by the book for criteria also. Realistically they probably should have either just delayed issuing the warning for another run and then seen qpf on the decrease, or gone WWA and possibly upgraded if necessary (which doesn't look necessary the way things are going). I was just trying to provide a view from their side since I have been through that area quite a bit. Where do you get your ECMWF text data? Yeah OHweather called it right, Accuweather Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah, we all will. If any precip does fall... You'll have a much better chance at seeing accums than just 10-20 miles to the north. Down here in northern portage the way things are going I'll be shocked if I get more than an inch. Up near the lake-shore you guys might not even see a dusting (or a flake?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Here are all the airport precip totals last night for the CLE CWA. MFD: 0.19" (Mansfield) CAK: 0.14" (Akron-Canton) MNN: 0.12" (Marion) FDY: 0.08" (Findlay) BJJ: 0.05" (Wooster) AKR: 0.03" (Akron) TOL: 0.00" (Toledo) CLE: 0.00" (Cleveland) YNG: 0.00" (Youngstown) Appears to be right in line with model consensus the past 36 hours. Another, what in the world was CLE thinking, forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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