Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[FL510]

Still not sure what you guys are complaining about?  February had below normal temps at CLE and above normal snowfall.  This winter has had some incredible storms (the last didn't have a direct impact on Ohio but Superstorm Sandy sure did, especially along Lake Erie).  February's average sky coverage at CLE was 90%.  The first week of March will be very cold, with average max temps about 15 degrees below normal.

 

As far as snowfall on this latitude, I grew up in suburban New York state and the total average snowfall was much less than the Cleveland area (even the west side).  In addition, if New York did get a big storm it usually melted within a few days.  Most of the winter had bare ground.  Chicago doesn't get as much snow as Cleveland, nor does Detroit, Indy, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Hartford, Boston or Toronto.  

[OhioBlizzard]

Still not sure what you guys are complaining about? February had below normal temps at CLE and above normal snowfall. This winter has had some incredible storms (the last didn't have a direct impact on Ohio but Superstorm Sandy sure did, especially along Lake Erie). February's average sky coverage at CLE was 90%. The first week of March will be very cold, with average max temps about 15 degrees below normal.

As far as snowfall on this latitude, I grew up in suburban New York state and the total average snowfall was much less than the Cleveland area (even the west side). In addition, if New York did get a big storm it usually melted within a few days. Most of the winter had bare ground. Chicago doesn't get as much snow as Cleveland, nor does Detroit, Indy, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Hartford, Boston or Toronto.

Yeah Feb. was decent but Dec. was 5.5 degrees above average and Jan. was 2.5 above average. One decent month does not make up for 2 bad ones imo. The cold weather to start out this month is nice, but it will not make up for the winter as a whole however.

As far as snowfall goes, you are comparing apples to oranges. It really doesn't matter imo what other locals get snow wise on average. All that matters is that we are below average again here. Thats like somebody telling someone in the tug hill plateau who had 100" of snow this year but was still 150-200" below average, hey good snow season, you still had more than Cleveland averages. I gurantee saying that wouldn't make them satisfied about being 200" below normal. Its all about averages. Just wondering if you have lived in NE ohio for a while? If you just moved here from a warmer location or area like NYC that averages less snow, that would probably make this winter seem harsh even though for NE Ohio standards it was pretty mild and below average on snowfall.

[OHweather]

So...for Tuesday-Wednesday...GFS, NAM, SREF and GEFS all suggest a 3-6" event...NAM actually has some mixing issues. UKMET, Euro, Canadian all either graze jobs or near misses. Nice battle shaping up. Energy will be sampled for 12z runs, we should see a trend this afternoon one way or another...hopefully.

[OhioBlizzard]

The light lake effect continues. Wouldn't be shocked if some areas on the west side that have been under this light activity for over 2 days now have nickeled and dimed their way up to 4" or more. Unfortunately not many spotters out there so probably won't know either way. Looks like some areas west/south/east may get up to 1-2"+ tonight.

[OhioBlizzard]

So...for Tuesday-Wednesday...GFS, NAM, SREF and GEFS all suggest a 3-6" event...NAM actually has some mixing issues. UKMET, Euro, Canadian all either graze jobs or near misses. Nice battle shaping up. Energy will be sampled for 12z runs, we should see a trend this afternoon one way or another...hopefully.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Was hoping the euro would stay north like the 12 z but it went south a bit. NAM also initiated pretty bad, so its 0z is questionable although it has been pretty consistently north. Like you said, should see a trend later today, and hopefully for the better. 3-6" before the warmup would be nice.

[OhioBlizzard]

Picked up 2.2" overnight. Currently coming down pretty good. Wouldn't be shocked to pick up another 1-2" before drier air works in later.

[OHweather]

Have seen 4.1" since arriving home Friday evening...solid weekend, hasn't truly stopped snowing until about an hour ago. 1.6" last night and 1.7" today...have almost 3" on the ground, there was well over 4" on the ground in Solon early afternoon.

Quite the battle shaping up between the Euro and American models for Tuesday-Wednesday...Euro does show about 0.1" QPF for CLE and a few tenths for CAK...so a small shift north would bring the heavier snows up to Cleveland. I'd lean somewhat north of the Euro due to the general trend of showing a slightly stronger system dropping into the Plains...and expect 3-6" for most areas, perhaps less up towards Lake and Ashtabula Counties. Most of the snow will fall Tuesday night and it will likely be a wet snow, so we'll see what kind of impact the event has.

[dta1984]

It has been a very wintry weekend, almost non stop light snow.  Really didn't expect for it to last so long.  Probably 3-4" here I would guess.  Some places on the west side might have done better since they had some good bands yesterday.  

 

Looks like maybe a decent even tues night.  If I am reading them right, looks like both nam and gfs drop over .5" liquid all snow.  

[Trent]

I had 1.8" of lake effect fluff here. Pretty much snowed nonstop since Friday Morning, albeit ranging from flurries to showers to moderate squalls. Would have loved this set up a month or two back with an open lake and some colder air.

 

I can't get excited for Tuesday night yet with the Euro barely showing an inch here. Most of the snow should fall (if it actually hits here) Tuesday evening and then overnight and would be done by Wednesday morning. I'd imagine that'd end up being quite a low impact event as the roads would probably be clear for the Tuesday evening commute and salted and plowed when people got up on Wednesday. Could be quite scenic though.

[NEOH]

Picked up over 3 inches so far and still snowing. I'm surprised so much moisture is being picked up off the lake.

[OhioBlizzard]

Have picked up 4.8" total since the change over mid week. The snow that fell Thur/Fri was a half inch here, half inch there type of deal so that burned off in most places. But what fell over this weekend was heavy enough to cover up the grass completely. I talked to a poster out in Medina and their total since Thur was a bit over 6" as of this morning. So adding in the snow this afternoon, not unreasonable to assume someone out in the Medina county area has picked up 6-8" of fluff where they have been under continuous light to moderate snow for over 3 days.

[FL510]

In Chagrin I only had about 1" of new snow yesterday.  Although it snowed all day (even some moderate snow at times), most of it melted.  The high temperature here was about 27, but only a minute or so of dim March sunshine was enough to heat up the ground area and melt most of the new snow.

 

I was looking at normal percent possible sunshine data for KCLE from the NCDC:

 

CLEVELAND, OH

 

Years available:66

 

Jan: 31

Feb:37

Mar:45

Apr: 53

May:58

Jun:65

Jul: 67

Aug:63

Sep:60

Oct:52

Nov:33

Dec:26

Avg:49

 

There is no way we've come even close to those winter sunshine numbers the last 4 or 5 years.  For example, last month had 10% possible sunshine per the NWS CLE Monthly Climate Summary.  Makes me wonder, if potentially climate change can create more amplification in the upper-air pattern, specifically the Greenland style block which seems so common the last few winters.  This in turn creates a more predominant and stagnant NW flow than is normal and thus a lot more lake-enhanced and cyclonic flow OVC conditions?

[OHweather]

This is getting very close to a bad miss right along the lake shore. I'm sure from Akron to Medina to Sandusky on south/west will see several inches of snow, and areas north/east of that line will probably see something...although it may cut to only an inch or so right along the lakeshore.

In general, if the models have shown a closed 534dm 500mb height contour by 0z Wednesday over southern IL, this has generally been strong enough to bring 4"+ amounts to CLE and not screw the lakeshore. If the models haven't quite deepened the 500mb feature that much by 0z Wednesday, they have generally shafted the lakeshore. It's such a small difference that it's still not a clear cut forecast, although right now perhaps 2-4" would be a more appropriate forecast for now along the lake and 3-6" a bit farther south. It wouldn't be shocking to see things trend one way or another still, because a 1-2dm difference still isn't huge at this time range.

[NEOH]

This is getting very close to a bad miss right along the lake shore. I'm sure from Akron to Medina to Sandusky on south/west will see several inches of snow, and areas north/east of that line will probably see something...although it may cut to only an inch or so right along the lakeshore.

In general, if the models have shown a closed 534dm 500mb height contour by 0z Wednesday over southern IL, this has generally been strong enough to bring 4"+ amounts to CLE and not screw the lakeshore. If the models haven't quite deepened the 500mb feature that much by 0z Wednesday, they have generally shafted the lakeshore. It's such a small difference that it's still not a clear cut forecast, although right now perhaps 2-4" would be a more appropriate forecast for now along the lake and 3-6" a bit farther south. It wouldn't be shocking to see things trend one way or another still, because a 1-2dm difference still isn't huge at this time range.

 

Near misses in early March aren't quite as painful. Expectations are low here... looks like a 30 corridor down to I-70 special. My call is 1-2" along the lakeshore. Trends aren't good for those in the far NE part of the state.

[buckeye]

This is getting very close to a bad miss right along the lake shore. I'm sure from Akron to Medina to Sandusky on south/west will see several inches of snow, and areas north/east of that line will probably see something...although it may cut to only an inch or so right along the lakeshore.

In general, if the models have shown a closed 534dm 500mb height contour by 0z Wednesday over southern IL, this has generally been strong enough to bring 4"+ amounts to CLE and not screw the lakeshore. If the models haven't quite deepened the 500mb feature that much by 0z Wednesday, they have generally shafted the lakeshore. It's such a small difference that it's still not a clear cut forecast, although right now perhaps 2-4" would be a more appropriate forecast for now along the lake and 3-6" a bit farther south. It wouldn't be shocking to see things trend one way or another still, because a 1-2dm difference still isn't huge at this time range.

 

so here's a questioin for you OHweather,

 

will you see more snow at home on springbreak OR would you see more snow staying in Athens?

[Trent]

With the NAM and GFS trending south, the nail is in the coffin. 3" for Cuyahoga County is now a best case scenario with a dusting looking like a real possibility. I think I'll take the 12z euro as gospel this afternoon.

[OHweather]

so here's a questioin for you OHweather,

 

will you see more snow at home on springbreak OR would you see more snow staying in Athens?

If you believe the 12z GFS, the heavy snow will split my two locations perfectly

 

I saw 4.5" here over the weekend though, and I'd imagine Athens saw trace amounts.

[FL510]

The 12Z GFS and GFS MOS show light precip <.10" for CLE and CGF but no accumulating snow.  MOS POPs are about 50% during Tuesday night.

[OhioBlizzard]

With the NAM and GFS trending south, the nail is in the coffin. 3" for Cuyahoga County is now a best case scenario with a dusting looking like a real possibility. I think I'll take the 12z euro as gospel this afternoon.

Yep, looks like just about another miss for most of the posters in here. 12z all trending south so far. Even the american models which had us in decent snow, are too far south now. 2-4" looks like the max, but if it trends anymore south, could be looking at 1-2" best case scenario even down here in Northern Portage. Missed them NW for the past few weeks and now looking like SW.

[NEOH]

Yep, looks like just about another miss for most of the posters in here. 12z all trending south so far. Even the american models which had us in decent snow, are too far south now. 2-4" looks like the max, but if it trends anymore south, could be looking at 1-2" best case scenario even down here in Streetsboro. Missed them NW for the past few weeks and now looking like SW.

 

Par for the course this winter. The gradient will be lurking close bye. Lakeshore areas may see less than an inch.

[OhioBlizzard]

Ended up with 5.0" total since midweek. Won't even be able to tell by the end of the day. Looks like the sun will probably end up burning everything off except for shaded areas by evening. The march sun just eats up lake effect fluff like nothing.

[OhioBlizzard]

Par for the course this winter. The gradient will be lurking close bye. Lakeshore areas may see less than an inch.

Yeah certainly will be a sharp gradient. CLE will have Winter Storm Warnings, WWAs, and then parts of their forecast area that virtually get nothing.

[Trent]

EURO gives Cleveland about 1.5" of snow, same for Toledo. How bullish will CLE go with warnings? Seems like only an advisory will be needed for extreme SW counties.

March sun has also destroyed the lake effect fluff here.

Just doing a quick browse this could be CLE's first back to back season without a 6" storm since '75/76 and 76/77. The current largest storm of this season is the lowest of the past 36 seasons.

[zero26800]

Im just down near akron, sitting right on the edge of possibly seeing snow, really shouldnt have to beg for a 1-3" storm....IN OHIO....

[zero26800]

if you're looking for a real knee slapper check the 18 hires NAM from 27hr to 45hr.... just dodging northern ohio... almost intentionally.

[Trent]

Seeing a storm drop snow on Minneapolis, Wisconsin, Chicago, Indiana, then central Ohio down to Virginia and then all the way up the east coast is just torture.

1" tops for CLE with this.

[zero26800]

Lets hope that the weather shows its unpredictable side....

[Trent]

Wow. CLE already has a warning out for 6-9" Ashland County and points west. I think that's a bit premature considering the snow starts tomorrow evening and model trends are less snow. Is there a model that even has those amounts falling in Mansfield? I wonder if these will be cancelled by tomorrow afternoon.

[zero26800]

I'm looking but i can't find anything with those amounts. some are trending more towards CLE but nothing showing that significant snowfall....hmmmm you find anything?

[NEOH]

Seeing a storm drop snow on Minneapolis, Wisconsin, Chicago, Indiana, then central Ohio down to Virginia and then all the way up the east coast is just torture.

1" tops for CLE with this.

 

It's so ridiculous you just have to laugh. Both the NAM and GFS are stingy with the northern extent of the precip shield. Heavy clouds may be the only thing we see at the lakeshore. Prospects for snow even to the south aren't looking good.