Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Trent]

Wow, it might actually be possible to not pick up any snow from this thing. Just a trace overnight. CLE discussion also paints the picture for little or no accums, except up to an inch in the highest terrain. 

 

The higher resolution models still pick up some snow for the snowbelt overnight, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

I wonder if this will have any impact on the upcoming cold snap. I find it hard to believe a high of 25 is possible at CLE in March with no snow and sunny skies.

[OhioBlizzard]

Another CLE fail last night. Had us down for 1-3" which is mind boggling. I picked up 0.5" and just by the radar think that I was one of the higher amounts in the area. Just not sure where they get some of their ideas for their forecasts.

 

I'm a bit surprised by how much CLE is downplaying the lake effect. I'm not to optimistic for anything that falls today as it will be gone by late afternoon, but think a couple inches are possible tonight in spots. Parameters aren't perfect by any means, but I wouldn't be shocked if some areas nickel and dime their way to maybe 4-5 inches by Saturday. CLE makes it sound like a non-event.

[NEOH]

Picked up a coating last night. I figured someone would get a few inches but it doesn't appear that happened. Anything more than an inch out of this "event" would be surprising.

[Trent]

Snow has passed here, no accumulation except for a dusting on car tops that have since melted. CLE will probably cough up a few tenths on the climate summary.

[OHweather]

So much for whitening the ground by tomorrow afternoon

 

In CLE's defense, a lot of models had a solid couple tenths of liquid overnight last night for a while up until pretty much yesterday. One would have thought CLE would have saw the models decrease QPF considerably, combine that with radar and obs and lower the overnight snow totals, but alas, no. They are so good at not making any changes to ongoing forecasts if the forecast is bad but messing with ongoing forecasts when they are good.

[OhioBlizzard]

Picked up a coating last night. I figured someone would get a few inches but it doesn't appear that happened. Anything more than an inch out of this "event" would be surprising.

Ended up with 0.7". By event did you mean tonight's snow included or just what fell overnight and this morning?

 

In CLE's defense, a lot of models had a solid couple tenths of liquid overnight last night for a while up until pretty much yesterday. One would have thought CLE would have saw the models decrease QPF considerably, combine that with radar and obs and lower the overnight snow totals, but alas, no. They are so good at not making any changes to ongoing forecasts if the forecast is bad but messing with ongoing forecasts when they are good.

Yeah, they should have at least saw what was going on last evening and made an update lowering amounts. When I fell asleep they still had a majority of their area down for 1-2" even though the radar showed a clear tendency. I forgot though that Wed. night is movie night at CLE

[OhioBlizzard]

With the 0.7" picked up today, finally broke the 50" mark for the season. Sad that it took till nearly March to do so and am actually down a bit compared to last year at this point. But given the pattern, should be able to beat out last year (which isn't saying much) considering the mega torch last March. Unless we somehow have a really snowy March and April and can pick up a few feet, going to be another below normal snow year in the Streetsboro area.

[Trent]

Did your 0.7" melt away yet?

I have a feeling temps aren't going to get as cold without a snowpack to help this weekend.

[OHweather]

With the 0.7" picked up today, finally broke the 50" mark for the season. Sad that it took till nearly March to do so and am actually down a bit compared to last year at this point. But given the pattern, should be able to beat out last year (which isn't saying much) considering the mega torch last March. Unless we somehow have a really snowy March and April and can pick up a few feet, going to be another below normal snow year in the Streetsboro area.

What do you average down there anyways, 75" or something? I'm sure you average something more than CLE but you're fairly far south...in Solon I probably averaged 85-90" and in Reminderville probably 80" or so...nice drop off typically near the Summit/Cuyahoga County line.

[NEOH]

Ended up with 0.7". By event did you mean tonight's snow included or just what fell overnight and this morning?

 

I meant the entire event (tonight as well). But I did think someone was going to pick up an inch or two last night as well... there was a nice band over the southern counties.

 

There is still snow on the trees and ground here in Chagrin. But definitely slushy and melting.

[Trent]

It's funny how CLE picked up 0.4" of snow today. I'm fairly confident that they did not have more than a trace. I was watching a webcam of the airport during the snow this morning and there was never any accumulation on the ground at all. I don't think they actually have observers who measure, they just take whatever falls as snow on the METAR and assume a 10:1 ratio in cases like these. The same thing happened last week. There was no snow at all on any webcam at Hopkins, but yet measured 0.9" because it snowed during the day and 0.09" was measured in the bucket. 

[OHweather]

Should probably state that I still like where we sit with the upcoming Tuesday-Wednesday threat. 0z Euro was 0.32" all frozen (but wet) at CLE and 0.42" all frozen (wet here as well) at CAK. If anything the models have trended weaker with blocking in the mid-range this winter, and with a very potent shortwave dropping into the Plains with this system, a weaker block would allow for a stripe of moderate snow to survive into northern Ohio. Stronger blocking obviously means sheared out/south/weak, but slightly weaker blocking, like showed 0z tonight on most models, would allow for a stronger system with accumulating snow for us.

[OhioBlizzard]

Did your 0.7" melt away yet?

I have a feeling temps aren't going to get as cold without a snowpack to help this weekend.

Oh yeah, it was long gone by late this afternoon except in shaded areas. We got over an inch of rain down here the past few days so the ground is soaked which doesn't help either..

 

With no snowpack, I too won't be surprised to see temps a bit warmer than expected.

 

What do you average down there anyways, 75" or something? I'm sure you average something more than CLE but you're fairly far south...in Solon I probably averaged 85-90" and in Reminderville probably 80" or so...nice drop off typically near the Summit/Cuyahoga County line.

About 75-80" here. I've only kept records for about 15 years so I hate to say its a legit average but pretty accurate. I'm at a decent elevation so that helps a bit. It varies a lot from year to year. Most years are between 50" to 100", but excluding this year and last I was on a pretty good streak here with some of the late 2000s winters in the 90-100 inch range and then 2010-2011 had well over 100". But the last 2 have been just as bad as the previous had been good.

 

It would be nice to have an accurate average seasonal snowfall map for northeast ohio that CLE could create, but after looking for years at spotter data I think it would be impossible to come up with an accurate map. So many inaccurate reports that it would probably be a waste of time.

[OHweather]

Oh yeah, it was long gone by this afternoon. With no snowpack, I too won't be surprised to see temps a bit warmer than expected.

 

About 75-80" here. I've only kept records for about 15 years so I hate to say its a legit average but pretty accurate. I'm at a decent elevation so that helps a bit. It varies a lot from year to year. Most years are between 50" to 100", but excluding this year and last I was on a pretty good streak here with some of the late 2000s winters in the 90-100 inch range and then 2010-2011 had well over 100". But the last 2 have been just as bad as the previous had been good.

 

It would be nice to have an accurate average seasonal snowfall map for northeast ohio that CLE could create, but after looking for years at spotter data I think it would be impossible to come up with an accurate map. So many inaccurate reports that it would probably be a waste of time.

Yeah it's tough. You can get their yearly seasonal snowfall maps on their website back to 96-97. The 2000's were very fruitful for the whole region, and you're right you had a nice stretch of 90-100" winters in the late 2000's and like 120" in 10-11, so the 30 year average may be lower. It is what it is

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah it's tough. You can get their yearly seasonal snowfall maps on their website back to 96-97. The 2000's were very fruitful for the whole region, and you're right you had a nice stretch of 90-100" winters in the late 2000's and like 120" in 10-11, so the 30 year average may be lower. It is what it is

Hey your short changing me on 2010-2011 , 130" on the nose, with about half of that in the greatest 10 day stretch of my snow life lol.

[OhioBlizzard]

I meant the entire event (tonight as well). But I did think someone was going to pick up an inch or two last night as well... there was a nice band over the southern counties.

 

There is still snow on the trees and ground here in Chagrin. But definitely slushy and melting.

Were you able to hold onto any snow cover by the end of the day yesterday? Lost all of it here except in the shaded areas.

[Trent]

It's interesting. I measured ~65" in the winter of 2009/10, ~78" in 2010/2011, ~31" in 2011/12, and thus far ~35" in 2012/13. So I've pretty much run + or - 8" of CLE. I would say that my location is quite fickle and highly variable from year to year compared to other locales. It's either feast or famine. 

 

And looks like nobody got more than a dusting (if they were lucky) overnight. It's amazing how this cyclonic flow produced nothing. I really did not expect there to be bare ground by Friday.

[NEOH]

Were you able to hold onto any snow cover by the end of the day yesterday? Lost all of it here except in the shaded areas.

 

By the time I got home there were just patches left in shaded areas. Its white out there this morning but it won't last long.

[FL510]

The ECMWF shows a big inverted through with the next coastal storm in about 6 days, but perhaps it's overblown for Ohio.

It definitely looks like a pattern changer though, with a big warmup before the next storm in 2 weeks. Viva Spring!

[OHweather]

It's interesting. I measured ~65" in the winter of 2009/10, ~78" in 2010/2011, ~31" in 2011/12, and thus far ~35" in 2012/13. So I've pretty much run + or - 8" of CLE. I would say that my location is quite fickle and highly variable from year to year compared to other locales. It's either feast or famine. 

 

And looks like nobody got more than a dusting (if they were lucky) overnight. It's amazing how this cyclonic flow produced nothing. I really did not expect there to be bare ground by Friday.

Yeah this "event" underperformed. The temperatures being stubborn to cool may have been the biggest hindrance. At least we get to watch for more zl the next two nights! Actually did wake up to like 0.2" of slush here in Athens this morning...it's gone in the valley but the ridges surrounding town still have a little white on top.

 

You are in a location that can get absolutely nailed just as well as the Snowbelt if a perfect band sets up, but that happens maybe once every 2-3 years it seems, so that probably has a lot to do with your feast/famine. The secondary Snowbelt is in the same boat...09-10 and 10-11 both featured several significant NW-N flow lake effect events and the secondary belt did well...as we've seen the last two years, decent NW-N events don't necessarily occur every year either.

 

Anyways, I couldn't care less what the pattern does after next weekend, as SE OH doesn't usually bank on March to make climo snowfall for the year. It can flip to warm/severe season after next week for all I care once my break is over

[Trent]

Anyways, I couldn't care less what the pattern does after next weekend, as SE OH doesn't usually bank on March to make climo snowfall for the year. It can flip to warm/severe season after next week for all I care once my break is over

At least you'll get to enjoy the dusting of snow in NE OH. There are some nice mood flakes today.

This season had potential. Had the Dec 26 storm ramped up and two of the lake effect events had a decent 8-10 hour firehouse band a few more miles south and this winter could have been stellar. There were a lot of blown chances this year.

At least there's some potential left in northern Ohio yet for the season, but even here any winter weather is short lived after the first week of March.

[OHweather]

At least you'll get to enjoy the dusting of snow in NE OH. There are some nice mood flakes today.

This season had potential. Had the Dec 26 storm ramped up and two of the lake effect events had a decent 8-10 hour firehouse band a few more miles south and this winter could have been stellar. There were a lot of blown chances this year.

At least there's some potential left in northern Ohio yet for the season, but even here any winter weather is short lived after the first week of March.

This winter was much more enjoyable to track than last. The results often weren't the best, although a lot of areas did ok relative to climo. The western lakeshore and secondary Snowbelts probably did the worst relative to climo in the state. NW OH did bad as well, they were in a small regional screw hole that included parts of central IN and eastern IL

 

I still think next week's storm may do something. It may miss, may drop 2-4", may drop more, although my largest snowfall down here has been 2.2". 2-4" would be great

 

It's been flurrying down here all day and probably will be my whole drive up, which is better than nothing. It was in the upper 60's and partly cloudy on my way down.

[OhioBlizzard]

It's interesting. I measured ~65" in the winter of 2009/10, ~78" in 2010/2011, ~31" in 2011/12, and thus far ~35" in 2012/13. So I've pretty much run + or - 8" of CLE. I would say that my location is quite fickle and highly variable from year to year compared to other locales. It's either feast or famine. 

 

And looks like nobody got more than a dusting (if they were lucky) overnight. It's amazing how this cyclonic flow produced nothing. I really did not expect there to be bare ground by Friday.

I managed to pick up 0.4" before the snow shifted west, but it will be gone soon. I'm pretty disappointed how it turned out. Thought some areas could manage a couple inches but took forever to get marginal instability, and now that we finally got it overnight, dry air is beginning to work in.

 

At least there's some potential left in northern Ohio yet for the season, but even here any winter weather is short lived after the first week of March.

Still have a good 6 weeks of possible snow chances and in some years even 8, but I agree, chances of prolonged winter weather rapidly diminish after the first 7-10 days of March.

[OhioBlizzard]

 

The snow cover map above pretty much summarizes my frustrations with Ohio winters. When comparing our snow cover with similar latitudes to the east/west we are really about the only ones (the I-80 corridor of N. Ohio) in the Eastern U.S. that doesn't have a snow-pack right now. This time of year (mid feb till about now) is always depressing in that regard. Being along the west spine of the Apps we are just in a bad spot and usually by this point in the year and even earlier in February GLCs have taken their toll on our snow-pack with the large torches that are associated with them in our area, while to the west they have avoided these and to the east, cold air damming (along with the help of elevation) has helped to minimize these affects. I know areas in the southern plains usually don't have snow cover like they do this year, but areas further west along the I-80 corridor usually hold onto their snow longer than us. I sometimes wonder what it would be like if we could avoid the GLC torches like areas further to our west for the most part do. With lake effect we could have a really nice snow-pack come mid February, but we rarely do because of at least a couple of decent torches of 50 + that reduce if not eliminate completely our snowpack. Luckily we have lake effect (which makes up for a lot of this, for me at least) because otherwise winters around here would really be depressing to go along with a typically lack luster/non existent severe weather season. I guess thats enough complaining for one post

[Trent]

Surprisingly it has snowed enough here to completely cover the grass. If the lake weren't mostly frozen, we'd have easily seen 5-6" overnight.

[Hoosier]

The snow cover map above pretty much summarizes my frustrations with Ohio winters. When comparing our snow cover with similar latitudes to the east/west we are really about the only ones (the I-80 corridor of N. Ohio) in the Eastern U.S. that doesn't have a snow-pack right now. This time of year (mid feb till about now) is always depressing in that regard. Being along the west spine of the Apps we are just in a bad spot and usually by this point in the year and even earlier in February GLCs have taken their toll on our snow-pack with the large torches that are associated with them in our area, while to the west they have avoided these and to the east, cold air damming (along with the help of elevation) has helped to minimize these affects. I know areas in the southern plains usually don't have snow cover like they do this year, but areas further west along the I-80 corridor usually hold onto their snow longer than us. I sometimes wonder what it would be like if we could avoid the GLC torches like areas further to our west for the most part do. With lake effect we could have a really nice snow-pack come mid February, but we rarely do because of at least a couple of decent torches of 50 + that reduce if not eliminate completely our snowpack. Luckily we have lake effect (which makes up for a lot of this, for me at least) because otherwise winters around here would really be depressing to go along with a typically lack luster/non existent severe weather season. I guess thats enough complaining for one post

That map is misleading (too generous)

[NEOH]

Woke up to inch this morning. It's still snowing lightly. Trent was right... if there was more open water this would have been a nice snowfall for the area.

 

Long range euro looks nice and mild. Bring on Spring!

[OhioBlizzard]

That map is misleading (too generous)

The lightest shade or two is pretty much bare ground and should be disregarded, that goes without saying . Also, a few areas in central IN and IL may be overdone but other than that looking at spotter reports it does a decent job. So I'm not sure which area you are referring to?

[OhioBlizzard]

Woke up to inch this morning. It's still snowing lightly. Trent was right... if there was more open water this would have been a nice snowfall for the area.

 

Long range euro looks nice and mild. Bring on Spring!

Only 0.4" here. Instability has been marginal, but with a nice Huron connection it probably would have been a decent snow for many if there wasn't so much ice like you guys mentioned. Figures we finally get a long lasting Huron connection and really won't have much to show for it due to ice/marginal instability/high sun angle. Its March though, so shouldn't expect much to begin with anyways I guess.

 

12z Euro cranks out 3-5" for next tues/weds before the warm up, but after that it looks like its time to get the golf clubs out of storage.

[Hoosier]

The lightest shade or two is pretty much bare ground and should be disregarded, that goes without saying . Also, a few areas in central IN and IL may be overdone but other than that looking at spotter reports it does a decent job. So I'm not sure which area you are referring to?

Yep, I meant this area.