Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Snohio]

Picked up 2+ inches today in parts of the Toledo area from a a thin band of lake effect from Lake Michigan.

[OhioBlizzard]

CLE had 4-8" in the grids for last night into today in the primary Snowbelt and even 2-5" across eastern Cuyahoga, so the forecast itself wasn't that bad (although, re-reading the afternoon AFD they may have had amounts too low initially)...like always though, they waited too long to issue the advisories, especially for Cuyahoga, and when they did upgrade to warnings for Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula (where a widespread 2-6" fell last night) the heaviest snows were moving out of those counties.

This wasn't easy because we didn't know how much ice was out there so I don't want to rip Cleveland too badly...the one big mistake was waiting so long to issue an advisory for Cuyahoga IMO, as by the middle of yesterday evening it was clear moisture was being picked up and that ice cover wasn't going to be a hindrance.

Yeah that is the one thing that really was mind boggling to me this morning as when I woke up the still hadn't issued anything for Cuyohoga County and then kind of just threw it out there when things were getting close to winding down and rush hour was already in full force (I believe it was issued around 8:00 Am but can't remember for sure). At that point I probably would have just held off and cut my losses.

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Picked up 2+ inches today in parts of the Toledo area from a a thin band of lake effect from Lake Michigan.

Nice, I have friends out in Toledo and they mentioned that they got some decent snow out there today.

[OhioBlizzard]

Had a continuous light snow since about 7PM yesterday with the NW flow and ended up picking up 2.5" overnight. For the event, have been able to nickel and dime my way up to about 3.5", with the inch that fell yesterday.

[Trent]

So what's everyone's take on tomorrow's event? Such a shame that a powerful storm like that pretty much falls apart by the time it gets here.

 

I was surprised to see the forecast from CLE. It seems to hit the "rain" word too hard and not emphasize the ice threat. The ground is frozen solid. Precip is expected to move in right at rush hour so it will be pretty bad like yesterday. I would expect winter weather advisories to be issued with the afternoon package as tomorrow morning yells "horrible commute."

 

Euro has about 0.16" all frozen, with the NAM and tad more and the GFS a tad less. Won't take much of a sleet/freezing rain combo to make a mess.

[NEOH]

So what's everyone's take on tomorrow's event? Such a shame that a powerful storm like that pretty much falls apart by the time it gets here.

 

I was surprised to see the forecast from CLE. It seems to hit the "rain" word too hard and not emphasize the ice threat. The ground is frozen solid. Precip is expected to move in right at rush hour so it will be pretty bad like yesterday. I would expect winter weather advisories to be issued with the afternoon package as tomorrow morning yells "horrible commute."

 

Euro has about 0.16" all frozen, with the NAM and tad more and the GFS a tad less. Won't take much of a sleet/freezing rain combo to make a mess.

 

I'd say we are looking at 1" of snow following by a glaze from freezing drizzle... then over to plain drizzle. As you mentioned, the ground is frozen so even if temps climb above freezing whatever falls will freeze on contact. Could be messy again.

[NEOH]

Had a continuous light snow since about 7PM yesterday with the NW flow and ended up picking up 2.5" overnight. For the event, have been able to nickel and dime my way up to about 3.5", with the inch that fell yesterday.

 

Nice. Total was just over 4" IMBY... a bit disappointed. More could have fallen but with the wind and fluff its impossible to measure.

[OhioBlizzard]

I'd say we are looking at 1" of snow following by a glaze from freezing drizzle... then over to plain drizzle. As you mentioned, the ground is frozen so even if temps climb above freezing whatever falls will freeze on contact. Could be messy again.

This should be WWA worthy due to the freezing rain aspect, so I'm interested to see what CLE does. Knowing them, they will probably wait till tomorrow morning during rush hour to issue anything.

 

Nice. Total was just over 4" IMBY... a bit disappointed. More could have fallen but with the wind and fluff its impossible to measure.

That's a pretty good total. If that band on Tuesday night would have set up a few miles further south, you would have probably got a half foot out of it I'm guessing. How much are you up to on the year up there?

[OHweather]

I'm not too optimistic about much front end snow for you guys...the 12z NAM would be most fruitful for you when looking at the 0z Euro and 6z GFS...

 

The Euro has 0.04" of precip falling at by 7am tomorrow, however by that point has 850mb temps above freezing (although surface temps are well below freezing at that time, and only rise to around 34 at CLE by 1pm, with 0.17" liquid falling by 1pm). The 6z GFS does not bring measurable precip in until 9-10am, and by that point, although the low levels are cold and perhaps supportive of sleet, the amount of moisture in the snow growth zone is poor, with very low RH's in the -10C to -20C layer per the GFS:

 

(right at the onset the GFS appears to support snow, but by 18z with only a few hundredths of QPF down the GFS doesn't have any appreciable moisture in the snow growth zone):

 

15z:

 

 

18z:

 

 

The GFS would probably be like a tenth or two of snow over to a couple hours of sleet late morning into early afternoon over to drizzle/freezing drizzle for the remainder of the afternoon, and would likely have little impact on either commute.

 

The NAM brings precip into Cleveland right around 7am and shows potential for a nice moderate burst on the nose of a 50-60kt 700mb jet during the morning hours tomorrow...the NAM manages to saturate the low levels while moisture still remains in the snow growth zone, and is below freezing (albeit barely) through the whole column at the onset, which would probably result in an hour or two of moderate snow before, even on the NAM, the moisture where it is cold enough to form snow is stripped:

 

12z:

 

 

15z:

 

 

18z:

 

 

The NAM temp profiles probably wouldn't support much sleet, perhaps a brief period of it, but do suggest the potential for drizzle/freezing drizzle through the rest of the afternoon. The NAM would also suggest an inch or two of snow is possible.

 

Given that ground temps are well below freezing, likely wet-bulb cooling at the onset and surface ridging to the north it is likely it will take until after noon for temperatures to rise above freezing...even then, they won't rise far and with the potential for drizzle persisting into Friday night there may be some re-freezing issues on surfaces that aren't treated.

The NAM is most aggressive with the QPF, at .2-.3" across the area. Given the system is occluding well to our west and the precip shield will be running into a very dry airmass, I'd lean towards the Euro QPF numbers if not a bit lower. The NAM/Euro are probably too quick in bringing the precip in and there is decent agreement in support for snow only lasting until around 9am or so, with the Euro suggesting the mid-levels becoming too warm a few hours before that even. Given all that I think a good call would be for like half an inch of snow starting between 7-8am quickly transitioning to sleet around 9am and quickly going to freezing rain after, before slowly changing to all rain by mid-afternoon. So, half an inch of snow/sleet followed by a light glaze seems reasonable. CLE is SUPPOSED to issue advisories for any amount of freezing rain so they should pull the trigger...I can see this working out so the impact on the morning commute isn't significant...although moderate wet snow with surface temps below 25 moving in around 7 as the NAM shows would slow things down considerably.

[OHweather]

I'll be home next Friday through Saturday the 9th...and it looks like that may be quite wintry...models consistent in pinning a large upper low just to our east under a large west based -NAO beginning Tuesday and lasting for at least a week...we'll see if it can get cold enough for some lake enhancement at times, even if not should be good for snow showers for days on end and the gradual building of a significant snow pack through the first week of March.

 

[NEOH]

I'll be home next Friday through Saturday the 9th...and it looks like that may be quite wintry...models consistent in pinning a large upper low just to our east under a large west based -NAO beginning Tuesday and lasting for at least a week...we'll see if it can get cold enough for some lake enhancement at times, even if not should be good for snow showers for days on end and the gradual building of a significant snow pack through the first week of March.

 

Nice timing on your part. Lot's of potential for long duration snows.

[Trent]

I'm staring to think that ice cover is overrated, but it will have some impact. Lake Erie is frozen again as far out as I can see from my window. Hopefully there are enoughto quick thaws and shifting winds to help out next week.

Looks like CLE did pull the trigger for tomorrow. I suppose that means there'll be a few residual flurries now.

[Trent]

I was amazed to come home today and find bare grass. Our inch of fluffy LES still found a way to almost completely disappear under dense cloudy overcast skies and temps around 20. 

 

It's kind of funny how I was only out of town a handful of days this winter, but those couple of days saw half of our snowfall. IMBY, I've only been home for about 17" of snow this winter. Feels like I'm living in Northern Kentucky. 

[OHweather]

I'm staring to think that ice cover is overrated, but it will have some impact. Lake Erie is frozen again as far out as I can see from my window. Hopefully there are enoughto quick thaws and shifting winds to help out next week.

Looks like CLE did pull the trigger for tomorrow. I suppose that means there'll be a few residual flurries now.

I think this year the issue has been the ice has never been solid, or thick, it has always been loose enough to significantly blow around and open up before the past few lake effect events. I think the point the past two events have proved though is that it doesn't take a whole lot of water to get things going when lake effect parameters are otherwise decent...I guess a good example of this would be the finger lakes significantly enhancing snowfall over narrow areas when the wind aligns right.

 

So perhaps you could say it's overrated although I think with the last two events there was clearly more open water or "slushy" ice cover than what the NOAA maps indicated. We are starting to get to the time of year where getting airmasses colder than -15C isn't as easy as waiting 5 days for the next clipper or storm to move by, so an open lake that perhaps warms a few degrees will be needed for any spring lake effect events...before all of our recent April events (three of which since 2005 have been major) temps had warmed into the 70's if not 80's just before the event which will do a lot to warm a shallow 34 degree lake.

[NEOH]

I was amazed to come home today and find bare grass. Our inch of fluffy LES still found a way to almost completely disappear under dense cloudy overcast skies and temps around 20. 

 

It's kind of funny how I was only out of town a handful of days this winter, but those couple of days saw half of our snowfall. IMBY, I've only been home for about 17" of snow this winter. Feels like I'm living in Northern Kentucky. 

This fluff has no staying power. Looks like 1-2 imby despite clouds and flurries all day.

You mind going on a trip next week?

[OhioBlizzard]

I think this year the issue has been the ice has never been solid, or thick, it has always been loose enough to significantly blow around and open up before the past few lake effect events. I think the point the past two events have proved though is that it doesn't take a whole lot of water to get things going when lake effect parameters are otherwise decent...I guess a good example of this would be the finger lakes significantly enhancing snowfall over narrow areas when the wind aligns right.

 

So perhaps you could say it's overrated although I think with the last two events there was clearly more open water or "slushy" ice cover than what the NOAA maps indicated. We are starting to get to the time of year where getting airmasses colder than -15C isn't as easy as waiting 5 days for the next clipper or storm to move by, so an open lake that perhaps warms a few degrees will be needed for any spring lake effect events...before all of our recent April events (three of which since 2005 have been major) temps had warmed into the 70's if not 80's just before the event which will do a lot to warm a shallow 34 degree lake.

Yeah, there has been a lot of slushy ice and gaps out there that have allowed moisture to be picked up. Thinking back to 2010-2011 when the lake actually did freeze over pretty much solid, there was a significant impact on lake effect events towards the later stages of the season.

 

This fluff has no staying power. Looks like 1-2 imby despite clouds and flurries all day.

You mind going on a trip next week?

Yeah down to around 1.5" here, lost about half the snow cover today despite it being well below freezing.

[OHweather]

Yeah, there has been a lot of slushy ice and gaps out there that have allowed moisture to be picked up. Thinking back to 2010-2011 when the lake actually did freeze over pretty much solid, there was a significant impact on lake effect events towards the later stages of the season.

 

Yeah down to around 1.5" here, lost about half the snow cover today despite it being well below freezing.

We actually saw synoptic snows in 2010-11 as well...and good lake effect...so by the time it froze it was an acceptable fate

[OhioBlizzard]

We actually saw synoptic snows in 2010-11 as well...and good lake effect...so by the time it froze it was an acceptable fate

  Its been so long since a good synoptic snow, I have forgotten what they are like. But that winter, we even had a decent synoptic storm or two in march, now we can't even buy one in January or February

[Trent]

Looks like a bit of sleet out there now. Radar says it won't last too long.

 

It's funny that CLE has had almost 9" of snow the past few days, with a max snow depth of 3". I always forget that our seasonal snow should come with an * 

[NEOH]

Precip started as sleet, then mixed with flakes. Just about done now it looks like. Nothing more than a coating.

[Trent]

There was a decent ice accretion IMBY, maybe about a tenth of ice with sleet caked in. I spent about 10 minutes scraping it off the car.

[FL510]

-3.5 F departure from normal for the month at CLE. A massive Greenland/Omega block over the north Atlantic the next 10 days pushes the polar vortex to DCA. This pattern makes 2010-2011 look tropical.

You guys should be happy!

[NEOH]

-3.5 F departure from normal for the month at CLE. A massive Greenland/Omega block over the north Atlantic the next 10 days pushes the polar vortex to DCA. This pattern makes 2010-2011 look tropical.

You guys should be happy!

 

Now If only we were able to get decent synoptic system to go along with the cold I'd be alot happier. Lot's of LES fluff this winter.

[OhioBlizzard]

Ended up getting 0.1" of freezing rain/sleet. Roads were fine but my driveway was an ice rink. Looks like non-treated surfaces are just starting to melt now.

[OhioBlizzard]

-3.5 F departure from normal for the month at CLE. A massive Greenland/Omega block over the north Atlantic the next 10 days pushes the polar vortex to DCA. This pattern makes 2010-2011 look tropical.

You guys should be happy!

February has certainly been chilly, but overall 2010-2011 was a much colder winter compared to this year's winter when averaged out for Dec/Jan/Feb. I am looking forward to the pattern as we head into early march though, especially after last march's mega torch!

 

Now If only we were able to get decent synoptic system to go along with the cold I'd be alot happier. Lot's of LES fluff this winter.

Yeah, if only we could get a decent synoptic storm. I'm not too hopeful though. Doesn't look like it will set up well for us. The system at the beginning of next week is our best shot imo for synoptic snow. Once we get into the pattern for early march, everything will probably be going up the east coast or out to sea and we will probably be stuck with more lake effect fluff. I guess its better than nothing though.

[FL510]

Looks like the only day with any sun in the snowbelt next week may be Monday. 

 

The blocking pattern is ridiculous.  Eventually by Day 10 (around March 5th) the ECMWF shows warm air advecting from the north (the warm air takes the long way counterclockwise around the Atlantic low due to the omega block across Greenland).  Until then, a dismal, cold onshore flow.

 

[NEOH]

Looks like the only day with any sun in the snowbelt next week may be Monday. 

 

The blocking pattern is ridiculous.  Eventually by Day 10 (around March 5th) the ECMWF shows warm air advecting from the north (the warm air takes the long way counterclockwise around the Atlantic low due to the omega block across Greenland).  Until then, a dismal, cold onshore flow.

 

ECMWF 10-day.JPG

Days and days of gloom. Welcome to CLE. The only thing to make things bearable would be significant snows.

[OhioBlizzard]

Well it looks like a near miss right now on Tues/Weds system. Can't rule it out completely yet since the lake-shore counties only need about a 60-80 mile shift south, but knowing our luck with synoptic systems this year, I'm not to optimistic. Besides the December storm, we haven't had another decent synoptic storm that wasn't a clipper.

[Trent]

The satellite imagery today doesn't look great for Lake Erie, it's virtually covered, but how much of that is slush is unknown. It's really hard to say what happens with all the enhancement snows at the end of the week.

 

I think it's a safe bet that CLE rides out another winter without a 6" storm.

[NEOH]

The satellite imagery today doesn't look great for Lake Erie, it's virtually covered, but how much of that is slush is unknown. It's really hard to say what happens with all the enhancement snows at the end of the week.

 

I think it's a safe bet that CLE rides out another winter without a 6" storm.

 

I'd bet a lot of that ice is slush. It's difficult for thick ice to form at this point of the winter without frigid temps. That said, I'm sure what ice is out there will limit enhancement.