NEOH Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Interesting HWO for a LES event tomorrow night and Weds.. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DEPENDING ON EXACT WIND DIRECTION BY LATE TUESDAY. I'd bet against anything significant unless the high winds break the ice up today. No doubt last night froze up any open water. The weekend fluff should be long gone IMBY by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'd bet against anything significant unless the high winds break the ice up today. No doubt last night froze up any open water. The weekend fluff should be long gone IMBY by tonight. Yeah my thinking too. Lake Erie is probably locked up solid after last night. It only got into the low 40's today, and with temps falling to the low 20's by tommorow afternoon and mid teens tommorow night, I think it will be locked up a lot worse than it was for Saturday nights event. Might be able to get some huron help for the far NE part of the snowbelt, but if the lakes locked solid, it will only help so much. Parameters for this once again look pretty good for about a 24 hr period, unfortunately the lake ice will probably be a large hindrance. Hopefully we can at least get a few open patches out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It's a long shot... But the strong wsw'erly winds should push the ice pack northeastward and compact the thin ice. There will probably be a good chunk of open water to work with. Wish casting at its finest but you never know. Not much snow left around here outside of the shaded areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm leaning towards 1-3" from eastern Cuyahoga County eastward through the primary belt...someone in NW PA may eek out 4-5".With the wind pushing the ice around my guess is there may be similar amounts of open water as Saturday night...however, with a fast flow limiting residence time, inversions only climbing to 7-8k feet and moisture decreasing above 800mb by Wednesday morning I don't think we'll see as much of a response as over the weekend. Wind direction favors a primary band for a time late Tuesday night into Wednesday but unless a significant amount of water opens up near the south shore from Cleveland west I don't think it will happen. Just not feeling this one I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 After having some time to look at things more in depth, I am cautiously optimistic for this event. Don't get me wrong, I don't think totals will be as high as this weekends event, but I'm thinking 2-4"/3-6"+ in the primary belt with 1-2/1-3" in the northern secondary. However might have to adjust those totals a bit based on the look we get of the ice cover tomorrow. Instability will be moderate, combined with low directional shear of less than 30 degrees. Hoping PVA may also help to enhance the lake effect at times considering the upper low will be NE of our area and drifting slowly east. A concern will be moisture in the 700-800 mb level drying out relatively quick, but there looks to be decent moisture up to the 750 mb level for a good 24 or so hours and upstream moisture is there as well. Another concern as OHweather mentioned is limited residence time. Overall the ice on the lake is of course the main hang up with this event. But given that conditions will remain favorable for 24-36 hours with this event, it should allow areas to nickel and dime there way up to several inches of snow. Given the flow, tommorow night should start with banding in the northern primary with a WSW-W flow and then slide further inland on Wed. morning into the central and maybe even southern primary. By Wed. afternoon and Wed. Night is when the action should shift south and even allow the northern secondary to get in on some banding. We will see how it plays out though, hopefully the lake opens up some tonight. Expecting to wake up to a nice rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Rain ended as a burst of moderate non accumulating snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nice post from Don S in the medium range thread. Hinting at a snowy March... "Top 3 cases showing up: 1960, 1965, and 2006. 2006 has been declining in weight recently. FWIW, the current mix of analog cases suggests the potential for a snowy March in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England. The Ohio Valley, southern Ontario and southern Quebec would likely seek their most snowfall in March since 2011. March snowfall for select cities based on the analog cases (weighted for frequency of cases): Boston: 9.7" (snowiest since 2009) Cleveland: 10.8" (snowiest since 2011) Montreal: 26.0 cm/10.2" (snowiest since 2011) New York City: 7.2" (snowiest since 2009) Toronto: 21.7 cm/8.5" (snowiest since 2011) Washington, DC: 6.8" (snowiest since 1999); excluding 1960: 2.2" (snowiest since 2009) Analog cases should not be used for making precise estimates of snowfall. What the above figures are useful in illustrating is the big picture idea that March could be snowier than usual in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions and that the Ohio Valley and parts of southern Canada should see a much snowier March than last winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow CLE made it up to 50 last night around midnight. That along with the rain and wind had to of loosened the ice up in spots. I'm interested to see NOAAs ice cover map later this evening. If there are some decent breaks out there, would lean more to the 3-6"+ I mentioned last night, with higher amounts possible in localized areas. Unfortunately with the cloud cover, we probably won't get a good look at the lake today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow CLE made it up to 50 last night around midnight. That along with the rain and wind had to of loosened the ice up in spots. I'm interested to see NOAAs ice cover map later this evening. If there are some decent breaks out there, would lean more to the 3-6"+ I mentioned last night, with higher amounts possible in localized areas. Unfortunately with the cloud cover, we probably won't get a good look at the lake today. No doubt the ice took a beating from the winds. I'd bet the huge ice sheet got pushed well to the east. My expectations are low so anything more than in inch will be a bonus. Here's a look from the crib - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow. Lot's of open water in the western basin as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This is tough forecast...can never tell if there is a significant amount of open water west of Cleveland or if the ice sheet just moved 10 miles off shore. I guess the prudent thing to do would be to up amounts to like 3-5" in Lake, northern Geauga and Ashtabula and maybe 2-3" in eastern Cuyahoga and go from there. The atmosphere begins to dry out tomorrow morning as winds go more to the NW however the secondary belt may see 1-2" if there is enough open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 No doubt the ice took a beating from the winds. I'd bet the huge ice sheet got pushed well to the east. My expectations are low so anything more than in inch will be a bonus. Here's a look from the crib - Wow that did open up. Thanks for posting the pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Picked up an inch so far. Some areas must have already picked 2-3 judging by the radar. 322 corridor is between bands. Should be a good burst of snow as winds push onshore overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Nice post from Don S in the medium range thread. Hinting at a snowy March... "Top 3 cases showing up: 1960, 1965, and 2006. 2006 has been declining in weight recently. FWIW, the current mix of analog cases suggests the potential for a snowy March in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England. The Ohio Valley, southern Ontario and southern Quebec would likely seek their most snowfall in March since 2011. March snowfall for select cities based on the analog cases (weighted for frequency of cases): Boston: 9.7" (snowiest since 2009) Cleveland: 10.8" (snowiest since 2011) Montreal: 26.0 cm/10.2" (snowiest since 2011) New York City: 7.2" (snowiest since 2009) Toronto: 21.7 cm/8.5" (snowiest since 2011) Washington, DC: 6.8" (snowiest since 1999); excluding 1960: 2.2" (snowiest since 2009) Analog cases should not be used for making precise estimates of snowfall. What the above figures are useful in illustrating is the big picture idea that March could be snowier than usual in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions and that the Ohio Valley and parts of southern Canada should see a much snowier March than last winter." Would be nice. It's amazing that the past 2 years have been pretty much void of any decent synoptic snows. The December 26th storm being the only exception and that turned out to be a dud at the last minute. CLE will most likely go 2 years without an official 6" storm if something doesn't drop in the next 2 weeks. Had a decent burst of snow here just after rush hour, enough to whiten the ground, but it's back to flurries. The radar looks a bit meager right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Picked up an inch so far. Some areas must have already picked 2-3 judging by the radar. 322 corridor is between bands. Should be a good burst of snow as winds push onshore overnight. Some areas in lake county were already reporting about 3" by 7:30, so I wouldn't be shocked if some are up to 4", maybe 5" by now. Not sure how its even possible to get an accurate measurement with these winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 After seeing some of the pics NEOH put up, not sure I buy into NOAA's map, although those web cams were right on the coast. NOAA has the central and western basin locked fairly solid, although there are some patches with lower percentiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't believe the NOAA map is nearly accurate. There is no way to tell for sure until we get some sunny skies overhead however, the webcams NEOH posted show clearly that there are large patches of open water near the southern and western shore, at least. There is a lake response...not the strongest ever but certainly moisture is being picked up, which probably wouldn't be the case if the lake was that locked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah, if it was locked up things certainly wouldn't be firing as good as they are right now. Primary snowbelt was upgraded to a warning last night at some point for 6-10". I'm not all that surprised as I mentioned Monday that some places might get 6"+, more shocked that CLE actually did a pretty good job with an event for once . Flow is transitioning to WNW so the northern secondary should get into the action soon. I am interested to hear what NEOH got overnight, probably got at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 The band seems to be paralleling the open part of the shore. The SW winds pushed the ice out a good 10 miles at least the past 2 days, so there is probably a decent response from that open water. Plus, where there is ice, it's probably more of a 70% slush. Haven't stepped outside here, but looks like maybe a half inch fell. We'll see how long this band can stay in place today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Picked up 3 inches as of 7am. Basically MBY was on the southern edge of the band all night. I'm sure areas in lake county did well. The band was stalled now it seems to be moving south fairly quickly as the trough pushes through. Snow is intense with visibilty a few hundred yards at best. Where ever that band stalls is going to see decent totals today. I'd bet the 422 corridor will do well... just south of me unfortunately. My office is in Chagrin so at least I will be able to enjoy it out here. CLE is playing catch up with this event. I remember reading yesterdays discussion where they "felt confident in not issuing advisories". Now there are warnings and advisories up. CLE should just turn over forecasting for the lakeshore counties to the BUF office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Would be nice. It's amazing that the past 2 years have been pretty much void of any decent synoptic snows. The December 26th storm being the only exception and that turned out to be a dud at the last minute. CLE will most likely go 2 years without an official 6" storm if something doesn't drop in the next 2 weeks. Had a decent burst of snow here just after rush hour, enough to whiten the ground, but it's back to flurries. The radar looks a bit meager right now. Yeah... we are long overdue for a decent synoptic storm. Once we get into March I'll really be looking forward to Spring. I'll take a bomb though if we can get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Decent snow here a smidge south of Chagrin Falls. I can barely see the street that's about 100ft in front of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Decent snow here a smidge south of Chagrin Falls. I can barely see the street that's about 100ft in front of my house. It's absolutely ripping in Chagrin. I'm right at the South Russell/Chagrin border. If only this band would stay in one place for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Unfortunately it looks like the band is on its last legs...although man it must be ripping 3" per hour under it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Picked up 3 inches as of 7am. Basically MBY was on the southern edge of the band all night. I'm sure areas in lake county did well. The band was stalled now it seems to be moving south fairly quickly as the trough pushes through. Snow is intense with visibilty a few hundred yards at best. Where ever that band stalls is going to see decent totals today. I'd bet the 422 corridor will do well... just south of me unfortunately. My office is in Chagrin so at least I will be able to enjoy it out here. CLE is playing catch up with this event. I remember reading yesterdays discussion where they "felt confident in not issuing advisories". Now there are warnings and advisories up. CLE should just turn over forecasting for the lakeshore counties to the BUF office. In there defense I will say that they had point and click at 4-8" for a majority of the snowbelt which was the correct call in general. But as far as waiting to issue advisories/warnings till the last minute like usual, I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Unfortunately it looks like the band is on its last legs...although man it must be ripping 3" per hour under it right now. Yeah, going to do it to me once again here in Streetsboro. Falling apart right in front of me (not that I expected much anyways, but still disappointing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sucks that band couldn't have held together over an area. Easily 2-3" rates. The radio was ripping the forecast to shreds on my drive in. The forecasts here have really been bad the past two years, no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sucks that band couldn't have held together over an area. Easily 2-3" rates. The radio was ripping the forecast to shreds on my drive in. The forecasts here have really been bad the past two years, no question. Whose forecast were they talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 CLE had 4-8" in the grids for last night into today in the primary Snowbelt and even 2-5" across eastern Cuyahoga, so the forecast itself wasn't that bad (although, re-reading the afternoon AFD they may have had amounts too low initially)...like always though, they waited too long to issue the advisories, especially for Cuyahoga, and when they did upgrade to warnings for Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula (where a widespread 2-6" fell last night) the heaviest snows were moving out of those counties.This wasn't easy because we didn't know how much ice was out there so I don't want to rip Cleveland too badly...the one big mistake was waiting so long to issue an advisory for Cuyahoga IMO, as by the middle of yesterday evening it was clear moisture was being picked up and that ice cover wasn't going to be a hindrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Just a few snow showers this afternoon. The real show was this morning. Imagine if that band had locked in place for a few hours. Looks like 3" or so fell in Chagrin in a short amount of time. Might be the last time we see those type of snowfall rates this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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