Nic Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I haven't been paying to the models so this storm is quite a surprise. Hopefully the heavier snows will be confined to the OH/PA border. Warm Lake Erie FTW. We are about at 70% leaf out... although most the leaves are still small. Could be ugly for the fruit trees. Probably not fruit trees they are heavily pruned so they can withstand the weight of fruit and for easier harvesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM simulated radar. This run seems to be a couple degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm in Hanoi, Vietnam right now. Never would have dreamt a trip in late April would result in potentially missing the biggest snow of the season. I'll be back Tuesday afternoon, and too tired to drive to the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm in Hanoi, Vietnam right now. Never would have dreamt a trip in late April would result in potentially missing the biggest snow of the season. I'll be back Tuesday afternoon, and too tired to drive to the east side. You'll have to travel more next winter . Temps will be a big issue... the lake has really warmed. I don't see lakeshore areas (within 10 miles or so) getting much. It would be fun to witness a historic storm... but the funny thing is that this won't come close to the easter LES storm a few years ago with 20-30"+ totals. We'll probably never see something like that again in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This may be a miss that will be hard to live down given how unusual a heavy synoptic snow is in late April. Still like splitting hairs with the models...12z NAM came a few miles east but would still support 5-6" over extreme eastern Summit and SE Cuyahoga Counties while the recent GFS runs would be 1-3" in that area. Sharp drop off west of there and nice increase towards the PA boarder on all models. I'm thinking 2-4" well inland along the I-77 corridor with 2"> west of there and 3-6"/lower elevations/ 6-12" above 1000' by the time one hits the PA boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Lake Erie temperatures FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This may be a miss that will be hard to live down given how unusual a heavy synoptic snow is in late April. Still like splitting hairs with the models...12z NAM came a few miles east but would still support 5-6" over extreme eastern Summit and SE Cuyahoga Counties while the recent GFS runs would be 1-3" in that area. Sharp drop off west of there and nice increase towards the PA boarder on all models. I'm thinking 2-4" well inland along the I-77 corridor with 2"> west of there and 3-6"/lower elevations/ 6-12" above 1000' by the time one hits the PA boarder. If anything, it will be interesting to watch this unfold. CLE put up a WSW for the far eastern counties. Considering how close we are could be a big bust either way. NW PA over the W NY looks like the jackpot area. A small shift west and it could be ugly around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not sure how many members are in the watch area east of Cleveland, but I thought I'd post an elevation map showing what areas could pick up the best snow, if the back edge comes far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 If anything, it will be interesting to watch this unfold. CLE put up a WSW for the far eastern counties. Considering how close we are could be a big bust either way. NW PA over the W NY looks like the jackpot area. A small shift west and it could be ugly around here. Nam went east, game probably over, f this winter I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 HRRR simulated radar at the end of the 21z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 HRRR simulated radar at the end of the 21z run: Geos, I know I'm new to this site, and I'm not a pro met, just a amateur weather nut, but I believe what you posted is the Rapid Refresh model that does in fact go out that far. However If I'm not mistaken the Rapid Refresh model actually initializes The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Here is the link to the actual to the HRRR model. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 What I find really interesting, and I know this is posted in the GL/OH valley thread, ( I will try and post in the appropriate thread as well) is the UKMET model. That and the Euro are my favorite winter weather models. I don't want to post all the maps here for those that don't want to see them. But here is link to Earl's foreign model page...take a close look at the 30hr UKMET. If convection is occurring just to the se of the Pittsburgh area it could pull more moisture into the cold sector. My guess is that right now the area just east of Pittsburgh could get nasty. http://wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Geos, I know I'm new to this site, and I'm not a pro met, just a amateur weather nut, but I believe what you posted is the Rapid Refresh model that does in fact go out that far. However If I'm not mistaken the Rapid Refresh model actually initializes The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Here is the link to the actual to the HRRR model. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ Right, under that link is where I got the map. I am looking at the deformation band placement. HRRR goes out 18 hours and the RUC goes out 24 hours. Actually I think the HRRR and RUC might work together. - might be wrong though. RUC link: http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Figures this trends east, but I bet YNG finds a way to snag a few inches. There was no way that this would have ever produced snowfall below 1,000 feet in Cuyahoga County with those lake temps, but would have been neat for those in the eastern part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Figures this trends east, but I bet YNG finds a way to snag a few inches. There was no way that this would have ever produced snowfall below 1,000 feet in Cuyahoga County with those lake temps, but would have been neat for those in the eastern part of the county. Looks like a swing and miss for cuyahoga county on west... possibly geauga/lake as well. Howling NE winds out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 This storm knew where it's at...avoided retrograding through NJ and trecked up the coast to near NYC and into scenic upstate NY. These strong winds are a bit of a consolation prize, and temps ended up decently mild given we were looking at potential accumulating snow. Might see some lake enhanced flakes into OH tonight but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Interesting how CLE is looking at potentially the driest April on record, odd to see a dry month for a change. I was hoping CLE was going to beat BUF for a change with seasonal snowfall, but 2 more inches there will give them the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Interesting how CLE is looking at potentially the driest April on record, odd to see a dry month for a change. I was hoping CLE was going to beat BUF for a change with seasonal snowfall, but 2 more inches there will give them the edge. The dry weather has been great... but we could probably use a good soaker at this point. I can't remember the last time we had a dry month much less a record dry month. Not a drop of rain or any snow last night. Pretty bad forecast bust by CLE. The temp was around 50 with sun yesterday evening... and sunny again this morning. Considering the forecast it is nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Looks like CLE is still in the running for driest April on record. The rains mostly missed this area last night... just a trace IMBY. I don't think CLE picked up much. We are getting to the point where we actually need some rain. Big change from last year. Next week looks wet on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Looks like CLE is still in the running for driest April on record. The rains mostly missed this area last night... just a trace IMBY. I don't think CLE picked up much. We are getting to them point where we actually need some rain. Big change from last year. Next week looks wet on the GFS. Oddly enough, the airport was hit by an extremely isolated shower dumping almost a half inch, with nothing a few miles away this morning. There goes the record, but most of the area has seen less than a half inch the past month ... but you wouldn't know it by how lush it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Oddly enough, the airport was hit by an extremely isolated shower dumping almost a half inch, with nothing a few miles away this morning. There goes the record, but most of the area has seen less than a half inch the past month ... but you wouldn't know it by how lush it is. Wow. That must have been isolated. Although there were a few intense cells on the radar earlier. It is lush out there... my grass is nice and green but not growing out of control which is nice. Looks like we may erase any departures next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Storms have been in the forecast all week... but outside of ashtabula county I don't think anywhere has had a storm. Hard to tell what if any will form in the Cleveland area as winds seemed to have pushed on-shore. Maybe storms will pop on the lake breeze boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Tornado Warning north of Columbus? How'd that happen in an area with zero shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Severe weather prospects are not looking good today unless we can get some clearing. The persistent complex to the NW is dying a slow death. Central lakeshore remains rain free to this point. The Toledo to Erie arc of rain continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 What a difference a year makes... this time last year CLE had recorded over 22" of precip... around 12" so far this year. It has been an incredible stretch of comfortable dry weather... but we could really use some rain. It's pretty unusual to see some yards showing signs of dormancy in May. For the most part it is lush out there, but full sun areas are getting baked. The bright spot to the dryness is that mosquitos have not been a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted May 29, 2012 Author Share Posted May 29, 2012 Somehow we've managed to dodge all the storm activity, Hopkins was literally on the fringe of rain last Friday. IMBY, I've had about 0.15" rain the past 3 weeks, and about 2" the past 2 months. Hard to believe it's not even June yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Saw a quick storm here Sunday and a nice little cell here this morning with small hail, but the ground is still pretty dry. Looks like the whole area will see some nice synoptic rains Friday which should keep us from developing too much of a drought in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Somehow we've managed to dodge all the storm activity, Hopkins was literally on the fringe of rain last Friday. IMBY, I've had about 0.15" rain the past 3 weeks, and about 2" the past 2 months. Hard to believe it's not even June yet. Another swing and miss for rain IMBY. Thunderstorm coverage has been less than impressive in the Cleveland area each time. My rainfall total is probably close to yours. Hopefully we can get a nice soaker later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 BG may have gotten a little over 2" today, nearly doubling Toledo's (KTOL) total for the entire month (1.29" this month). Findlay got nearly 4". Much needed rainfall here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 BG may have gotten a little over 2" today, nearly doubling Toledo's (KTOL) total for the entire month (1.29" this month). Findlay got nearly 4". Much needed rainfall here too. It has really been hit or miss with storms/rain... nothing widespread so far. Good to see the farm lands received a good soaking. Looks rainy for most of OH this weekend which is much needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.