OHweather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The convective snow showers with the upper trough look good out near Sandusky...wouldn't surprise me if there is a variable snow pattern dumping locally up to 3" and locally trace amounts through evening with a lot of little popcorn like snow showers to push through...with a burst of LES tonight as the surface trough slips south with perhaps another 1-3" for everyone...could be a situation where some areas don't see an inch and others end up with 5-6" by tomorrow morning. Either way, looks like I'm going to get smoked down here in an hour or so...maybe a quick couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The convective snow showers with the upper trough look good out near Sandusky...wouldn't surprise me if there is a variable snow pattern dumping locally up to 3" and locally trace amounts through evening with a lot of little popcorn like snow showers to push through...with a burst of LES tonight as the surface trough slips south with perhaps another 1-3" for everyone...could be a situation where some areas don't see an inch and others end up with 5-6" by tomorrow morning. Either way, looks like I'm going to get smoked down here in an hour or so...maybe a quick couple inches. I agree, going to be interesting watching it play out tonight. Haven't paid much attention to the latest model runs. Woke up to a coating of snow... sun has been in and out of the clouds. Feels like an early spring day. My interest in winter is definitely waning. It will be interesting to see if the LES can fire up tonight. It does feel a bit like spring even though its hovering around 30. Sun is starting to get pretty strong. Storm towards the end of next week isn't looking good, so hopefully we can get a few inches tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 If the coolwx graphic is correct, looks like the Tuesday storm is trending colder for us based on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like a thin layer of ice formed last night. Nice view from the crib... hopefully that will break up once the winds get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The convective snow showers with the upper trough look good out near Sandusky...wouldn't surprise me if there is a variable snow pattern dumping locally up to 3" and locally trace amounts through evening with a lot of little popcorn like snow showers to push through...with a burst of LES tonight as the surface trough slips south with perhaps another 1-3" for everyone...could be a situation where some areas don't see an inch and others end up with 5-6" by tomorrow morning. Either way, looks like I'm going to get smoked down here in an hour or so...maybe a quick couple inches. Looks like a lake shadow pushed onshore up near erie. If winds stay light there will be an odd snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like a lake shadow pushed onshore up near erie. If winds stay light there will be an odd snow pattern. Yeah...looks like a more legitimate squall (where it snows for more than 10 minutes) is festering near the lakeshore between Lorain and Sandusky...some of BUF's WRF's were hinting at a narrow squall dropping very heavy (almost half an inch) of QPF from the west side east through the metro, so let's see if that's the kind of squall developing that they were hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like a lake shadow pushed onshore up near erie. If winds stay light there will be an odd snow pattern. Lake shadows seem fairly common in the summer with the stable lake air, but today the boundary layer is fairly unstable. Is today's shadow because of a relatively ice covered lake not enhancing the instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just dumping here on the west side. It's exciting seeing these heavy snow rates, but just passing showers. Would love to get a band going and keep it still a good 5-6 hours, these 15 minute bursts keep accums down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 now that the sun has gone done you can already see the activity dropping off a bit. just a trace of snow here. looks like there is a mesolow on the north side of the lake right now although not nearly as well formed as the one about a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Impressive snowfall rates. Picked 1.5 in 45 minutes earlier. The lack of snow in the primary belt is interesting. Lorain county has been getting pounded. Must be open water off of lorain. As mentioned before, the snowfall pattern is going to be odd. Places in Lorain county may see more snow than Chardon. Winds are currently out of the sw imby.... Not sure why that is outside of the light flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Just dumping here on the west side. It's exciting seeing these heavy snow rates, but just passing showers. Would love to get a band going and keep it still a good 5-6 hours, these 15 minute bursts keep accums down. Near west side ftw with this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lake shadows seem fairly common in the summer with the stable lake air, but today the boundary layer is fairly unstable. Is today's shadow because of a relatively ice covered lake not enhancing the instability? Not sure. Subsidence ahead of the trough maybe. I'm sure ice has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I think the east side was quiet much of today due to the trough being focused to the west like NEOH said. I think most of today's snow showers were caused by atmospheric instability with the trough and perhaps a little bit by the lake...now that the land is cooling off and the diurnal snow showers are weakening inland the lake is clearly contributing a good amount to the snow on the west side where there was some open water...wouldn't surprise me if portions of Lorain County end up with several inches as they were hit decently earlier and are getting hit good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Impressive snowfall rates. Picked 1.5 in 45 minutes earlier. The lack of snow in the primary belt is interesting. Lorain county has been getting pounded. Must be open water off of lorain. As mentioned before, the snowfall pattern is going to be odd. Places in Lorain county may see more snow than Chardon. Winds are currently out of the sw imby.... Not sure why that is outside of the light flow. On NOAAs Great Lakes map the most open area on the central basin on west is just north of lorain, and is about the size of lorain county so that is helping. Surprisingly the central basin is more locked up than the western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 picked up about a half foot overnight so far. about time we got something half decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 picked up about a half foot overnight so far. about time we got something half decent congrats. picked up 2.5" here total. pure fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The snowfall reports on the CLE NWS page are all over the place. Couple 9" reports. The one from Chardon must have been very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 The Oberlin report is the only one that didn't shock me. They were under a band for hours and hours and hours so 9" of fluff seems reasonable. Talk about an exciting localized event. I only had 2.5" which has already settled considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Imagine if the central part of the lake wasn't frozen. There's my weenie post of the day.CLE issued an advisory at 2am for 5 hours, after the heaviest snow had fallen, after declining to issue and advisory at 9:30pm, thinking the snow would fade quickly...I'll never understand their logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Here is a quick and dirty radar loop of the event. Note the nice meso-low that moved onshore around 2am in Lake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Here is a quick and dirty radar loop of the event. Note the nice meso-low that moved onshore around 2am in Lake County. Nice. Thanks for the loop. Areas just the NE of me got hit pretty good with the mesolow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 congrats. picked up 2.5" here total. pure fluff. The snowfall reports on the CLE NWS page are all over the place. Couple 9" reports. The one from Chardon must have been very localized. Thanks. Officially had 5.7", but thats my second largest lake effect event on the year sadly enough. That mesolow that was out over the lake last evening moved onshore overnight and really hammered the chardon area. Looks like you area was really close to getting in on the heavier action associated with it, but just missed out. Must have been snowing at 2 inches an hour in chardon for a while last night the way the radar looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Imagine if the central part of the lake wasn't frozen. There's my weenie post of the day. CLE issued an advisory at 2am for 5 hours, after the heaviest snow had fallen, after declining to issue and advisory at 9:30pm, thinking the snow would fade quickly...I'll never understand their logic. I was thinking the same think. Also, it was a short event 12-18 hrs. If we could have had an open lake with these conditions for a few days, it could have been another event like December 2010. Oh and add another CLE fail to the tally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Nice. Thanks for the loop. Areas just the NE of me got hit pretty good with the mesolow. No problem. That was a classic mesolow example right there, and had the typical two or so hour enhancement of snow for areas that were affected by it. I was thinking the same think. Also, it was a short event 12-18 hrs. If we could have had an open lake with these conditions for a few days, it could have been another event like December 2010. Oh and add another CLE fail to the tally I think 6-12" would have been common had the lake been open yesterday, and it would have fallen in a short time frame and been a mess. The lake effect conditions yesterday were top end with very high inversions, moderate instability even with an icy lake and considerable environmental moisture up to like 600mb...not to mention the synoptic scale convergence with the trough passing through and light flow increasing residence time over the lake and promoting meso-lows like we saw. If those conditions persisted for days no doubt someone would walk away with obscene totals, but there is unfortunately a reason that 3 foot storms aren't common in NE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 No problem. That was a classic mesolow example right there, and had the typical two or so hour enhancement of snow for areas that were affected by it. I think 6-12" would have been common had the lake been open yesterday, and it would have fallen in a short time frame and been a mess. The lake effect conditions yesterday were top end with very high inversions, moderate instability even with an icy lake and considerable environmental moisture up to like 600mb...not to mention the synoptic scale convergence with the trough passing through and light flow increasing residence time over the lake and promoting meso-lows like we saw. If those conditions persisted for days no doubt someone would walk away with obscene totals, but there is unfortunately a reason that 3 foot storms aren't common in NE Ohio. Lol. If only lake Erie had the depths of the other lakes. Ice cover late season always sucks. Gimme another veteran's day '96 and I'll be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I think 6-12" would have been common had the lake been open yesterday, and it would have fallen in a short time frame and been a mess. The lake effect conditions yesterday were top end with very high inversions, moderate instability even with an icy lake and considerable environmental moisture up to like 600mb...not to mention the synoptic scale convergence with the trough passing through and light flow increasing residence time over the lake and promoting meso-lows like we saw. If those conditions persisted for days no doubt someone would walk away with obscene totals, but there is unfortunately a reason that 3 foot storms aren't common in NE Ohio. This was key in compensating for the icy waters on the lake. The light flow in the PBL really allowed for the maximum amount of moisture to be evaporated even though most of the central basin was frozen over to an extent. Where there were significant openings out to the west we saw the results with nearly 10 inches out in lorain county. Looking at the latest NOAA map, it now is almost completely locked up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The fresh snowpack along with clear skies is doing wonders. Already down to 0. Doubt we drop but another degree or two with the flow now southerly, but I guess -5 isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Bottomed out at -2 and currently at 0. Might be the coldest I see until next december or january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 No doubt Lake Erie froze up solid again last night and added a few inches of ice depth. Yesterday afternoon there was no open water along the shore so that must have filled in quickly Saturday night/Sunday morning. I'm guessing a lot of the LES will melt today with temps progged to hit just over 40. Even yesterday with temps around 20, the full sun did a number on that fluff. I'm hoping there are some legitimate fantasy range storms that pop up soon to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Interesting HWO for a LES event tomorrow night and Weds.. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH TUESDAY.LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANDCONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEESIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DEPENDING ON EXACT WIND DIRECTIONBY LATE TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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