Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OhioBlizzard]

Well today is not going to get out of the mid 30s, so that only leaves tommorow for some real hope of opening up the lake with temps in the mid 40s. But with last night and tonight in the mid 20s I doubt much more opens up. Probably at best looking at advisory criteria. Ashtabula County would have the most realistic shot at warning criteria due to less ice up that way, and the best chance at getting a huron connection set up. Who knows though, maybe by some miracle the central basin will open up a decent amount all the way to cleveland..

[NEOH]

Well today is not going to get out of the mid 30s, so that only leaves tommorow for some real hope of opening up the lake with temps in the mid 40s. But with last night and tonight in the mid 20s I doubt much more opens up. Probably at best looking at advisory criteria. Ashtabula County would have the most realistic shot at warning criteria due to less ice up that way, and the best chance at getting a huron connection set up. Who knows though, maybe by some miracle the central basin will open up a decent amount all the way to cleveland..

 

Hopefully the clouds clear out later today so we can get a look at the lake from the visible. As you mentioned, the further east the better chance at something significant. Wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 2-4" event from the southern primary on northeast.

[Trent]

And here's a link to a post in the February Discussion thread that shows some of the ice cover:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39023-february-2013-general-discussion/?p=2119753

 

Lake Erie is an ice rink. Possibly some melting tomorrow, but more refreezing this weekend. I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything decent lake effect wise. 2-4" for Northern Primary Belt? meh.

 

Also note how the ice shield in the middle of the lake still maintained the contour of the lake's edge. Those southwesterly winds were so strong it just lifted it out a few miles in one big sheet.

[NEOH]

And here's a link to a post in the February Discussion thread that shows some of the ice cover:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39023-february-2013-general-discussion/?p=2119753

 

Lake Erie is an ice rink. Possibly some melting tomorrow, but more refreezing this weekend. I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything decent lake effect wise. 2-4" for Northern Primary Belt? meh.

 

Also note how the ice shield in the middle of the lake still maintained the contour of the lake's edge. Those southwesterly winds were so strong it just lifted it out a few miles in one big sheet.

I would be surprised if that is all ice but you never know. A cloud deck hung over the lake... Hence the bright white appearance unless that's snow cover on top of the ice. I would be happy with 2-4 at this point of the season. Maybe we'll get a better view of the ice tomorrow.

[OHweather]

Here's a better shot...environmental factors are very favorable for LES Friday night into Sunday, with decent ambient moisture and lake-850mb temp differentials of 14-18C through that timeframe, assuming a lake water temp of freezing. However, obviously, the amount of moisture to be picked up is limited...with potential upstream lake connections on a NW flow (most likely into Ashtabula and NW PA) and some open water I'm sure there will be snow showers around, but with the limited moisture I doubt rates will be impressive...probably will be several inches over the high terrain over the course of 36-48 hours but amounts will probably remain a bit below advisory criteria...sans NW PA if a Lake Huron connection sets up.

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Hopefully the clouds clear out later today so we can get a look at the lake from the visible. As you mentioned, the further east the better chance at something significant. Wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 2-4" event from the southern primary on northeast.

I would be surprised if that is all ice but you never know. A cloud deck hung over the lake... Hence the bright white appearance unless that's snow cover on top of the ice. I would be happy with 2-4 at this point of the season. Maybe we'll get a better view of the ice tomorrow.

Yeah 2-4" is a decent amount to go with at this point, but I think the northern secondary could also get on those totals or maybe slightly less given the flow (Maybe I'm just being a homer due to snow deprivation ). I too would be happy with 2-4" right now.

 

Here's a better shot...environmental factors are very favorable for LES Friday night into Sunday, with decent ambient moisture and lake-850mb temp differentials of 14-18C through that timeframe, assuming a lake water temp of freezing. However, obviously, the amount of moisture to be picked up is limited...with potential upstream lake connections on a NW flow (most likely into Ashtabula and NW PA) and some open water I'm sure there will be snow showers around, but with the limited moisture I doubt rates will be impressive...probably will be several inches over the high terrain over the course of 36-48 hours but amounts will probably remain a bit below advisory criteria...sans NW PA if a Lake Huron connection sets up.

 

ice.JPG

Nice pic. I agree, conditions will be prime. If things can open up quite a bit tommorow with the warm weather, we could be in decent shape, but I doubt it. For Ohio, I still think Ashtabula county stands a pretty good chance of an advisory but other areas are marginal. How much did you get in Athens today?

[OHweather]

Yeah 2-4" is a decent amount to go with at this point, but I think the northern secondary could also get on those totals or maybe slightly less given the flow (Maybe I'm just being a homer due to snow deprivation ). I too would be happy with 2-4" right now.

 

Nice pic. I agree, conditions will be prime. If things can open up quite a bit tommorow with the warm weather, we could be in decent shape, but I doubt it. For Ohio, I still think Ashtabula county stands a pretty good chance of an advisory but other areas are marginal. How much did you get in Athens today?

Yeah, there is also more open water northwest of Ashtabula County than what I thought off of first glance, which certainly helps.

 

Don't get me started on today

 

Light to moderate snow with visibility between .5-1 miles from 1:00 till 4:45 (and some lighter snow till almost 6)...temps sitting at 32-33...the snowflakes were huge aggregated dendrites...I thought we would get a solid paste job...however, with the 50's yesterday, 60's on Monday, and temps sneaking up to like 38 right before it started snowing and we dropped, the ground was evidently roasting...ended up with .7"...certainly feel screwed but it will be 50+ tomorrow anyways so I'm not too worried.

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah, there is also more open water northwest of Ashtabula County than what I thought off of first glance, which certainly helps.

 

Don't get me started on today

 

Light to moderate snow with visibility between .5-1 miles from 1:00 till 4:45 (and some lighter snow till almost 6)...temps sitting at 32-33...the snowflakes were huge aggregated dendrites...I thought we would get a solid paste job...however, with the 50's yesterday, 60's on Monday, and temps sneaking up to like 38 right before it started snowing and we dropped, the ground was evidently roasting...ended up with .7"...certainly feel screwed but it will be 50+ tomorrow anyways so I'm not too worried.

Wow. That is a surprise. I saw a lot of reports from southern ohio in the 2-3" range so I thought athens would be somewhere in there. Its amazing the difference from NE ohio to down there. The conditions you are describing sound like mid march (or later) in NE Ohio.

 

On a side note, already down to 19 imby. Probably going to have a decent amount of refreezing tonight on lake erie, followed by the melting tommorow.

[NEOH]

I flew to Chicago this morning. It was hazy but I had a decent view the of the ice... Coverage was sporadic well to the north of CLE with a huge opening off of Lorain. Unless there was a lot of clear ice (which is rare on the lake), I'd say there will be decent moisture to work with. I don't see any more than 2-4", but I wouldn't be surprised to see more in an area that has a fetch off of the open water.

[OhioBlizzard]

I flew to Chicago this morning. It was hazy but I had a decent view the of the ice... Coverage was sporadic well to the north of CLE with a huge opening off of Lorain. Unless there was a lot of clear ice (which is rare on the lake), I'd say there will be decent moisture to work with. I don't see any more than 2-4", but I wouldn't be surprised to see more in an area that has a fetch off of the open water.

Thanks for the info. I agree, areas that have a fetch with fairly decent ice cover- 2-4" should be about right. Those with large gaps of open areas such as towards the PA line, 3-6"+ could be a possibility.

[OHweather]

Wow. That is a surprise. I saw a lot of reports from southern ohio in the 2-3" range so I thought athens would be somewhere in there. Its amazing the difference from NE ohio to down there. The conditions you are describing sound like mid march (or later) in NE Ohio.

 

On a side note, already down to 19 imby. Probably going to have a decent amount of refreezing tonight on lake erie, followed by the melting tommorow.

Yeah, from what I've gathered Parkersburg, the closest official climo station averages near 20" of snow a year. I've read unofficially that Athens averages 13-14" a year...with the main problem being not only am I due west of the Apps, but am in the middle of a valley down here.

This morning, now that I could see the ridges better, it was clear that the ridges surrounding the campus, which are only a couple hundred feet higher than where my dorm sits, saw much better accumulation...they were white and I could see snow on the trees up there. I've seen differences in accumulation like that before over a small elevation but not very often. Doesn't make me feel any better about the snow not sticking where I was yesterday

[FL510]

Today was supposed to be partly sunny and 45 from a forecast a couple days ago, I doubt I'll reach 40 in Chagrin Falls, we've had on and off flurries this afternoon with a thick overcast.

[Trent]

Quite possibly the first "warm fail" in some time, but I think we'll see a slight creep up in temps through the evening.

CLE not really honking the LES potential, so get your snowblowers ready.

But I don't think this is much to get worked up on. CLE mentioned shifting winds which is the kiss of death here.

[FL510]

More flurries here in Chagrin at 16:15. I guess the warm air just doesn't want to go east of the Cuyahoga today.

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah, from what I've gathered Parkersburg, the closest official climo station averages near 20" of snow a year. I've read unofficially that Athens averages 13-14" a year...with the main problem being not only am I due west of the Apps, but am in the middle of a valley down here.

This morning, now that I could see the ridges better, it was clear that the ridges surrounding the campus, which are only a couple hundred feet higher than where my dorm sits, saw much better accumulation...they were white and I could see snow on the trees up there. I've seen differences in accumulation like that before over a small elevation but not very often. Doesn't make me feel any better about the snow not sticking where I was yesterday

Yea I bet that was a cool sight with snow on the hills, thats postcard material. But like you said, still doesn't make you feel any better.

[OhioBlizzard]

Quite possibly the first "warm fail" in some time, but I think we'll see a slight creep up in temps through the evening.

CLE not really honking the LES potential, so get your snowblowers ready.

But I don't think this is much to get worked up on. CLE mentioned shifting winds which is the kiss of death here.

Yeah normally they are opposite of today with it being warmer than predicted. Of course when we needed it warm to help further the ice melt it stays colder than its suppose to be, but there are some warmer temps out in W. Ohio that should get us into the upper 30's at least briefly.

 

Winds in the far lower levels really shouldn't be shifting around much, but near 700mb may be a different story. So I understand there shifting winds argument with directional shear being a possible problem. Sat. Night should be the period where things become most favorable.

 

More flurries here in Chagrin at 16:15. I guess the warm air just doesn't want to go east of the Cuyahoga today.

Its trying to move in from Western Ohio but having a tough time. Low 40's out in toledo currently

[OHweather]

The 0z hi-res NAM is spitting out 2-4" with a frozen lake...will be interesting to see how the snow Saturday-Saturday night plays out...with a light flow and ridging building in from the west, could be some convergence that hangs somewhere over the area, maybe outside of the Snowbelt as well. Conditions will be very favorable for LES Saturday evening through Sunday morning, so if any moisture can be picked up off the lake I can still see 2-4" falling wherever any snow sets up.

[OhioBlizzard]

The 0z hi-res NAM is spitting out 2-4" with a frozen lake...will be interesting to see how the snow Saturday-Saturday night plays out...with a light flow and ridging building in from the west, could be some convergence that hangs somewhere over the area, maybe outside of the Snowbelt as well. Conditions will be very favorable for LES Saturday evening through Sunday morning, so if any moisture can be picked up off the lake I can still see 2-4" falling wherever any snow sets up.

Looking at the GLCFS ice cover map there are some scattered breaks in the ice. Nothing too big, but at least its not locked solid. But with the colder temps today and tonight that may change I guess.But assuming it doesn't I think this event will be favorable like you said for a decent 2-4" swath in the favored areas. Only parameter I am worried about is the shear from surface to 700mb which at times will be pretty high sat. night. But it seems to vary quite a bit throughout the night from nearly 0 at times to nearly 60 degrees at others so I think there could be favorable and less favorable periods. Hopefully as we get closer the models can fine tune this a bit. I like our chances at getting a huron connection going, so if we could just keep some open water over the lake maybe we could be looking at a 2-4"+ scenario, but with today tonight and tommorow being sufficent for refreezing its hard to say how frozen it is by saturday night.

[Trent]

The high resolution models are so fickle with LES as it is, I'm doubtful they initialize ice cover that well. I'm also sure they are terrible at predicting future ice cover as well. So a minor error in either of those and the models won't have a clue.

At least for CLE and IMBY I'd be surprised if more than 2.5" falls this weekend.

The day 7 potential looks ok for being in fantasy land, but I still think we blew our big snow chance this season on Boxing Day with underperforming snows. I'm almost hoping for a weakening low with a coastal taking over. The icing indications the past few days don't seem appealing.

[OHweather]

Looking at the GLCFS ice cover map there are some scattered breaks in the ice. Nothing too big, but at least its not locked solid. But with the colder temps today and tonight that may change I guess.But assuming it doesn't I think this event will be favorable like you said for a decent 2-4" swath in the favored areas. Only parameter I am worried about is the shear from surface to 700mb which at times will be pretty high sat. night. But it seems to vary quite a bit throughout the night from nearly 0 at times to nearly 60 degrees at others so I think there could be favorable and less favorable periods. Hopefully as we get closer the models can fine tune this a bit. I like our chances at getting a huron connection going, so if we could just keep some open water over the lake maybe we could be looking at a 2-4"+ scenario, but with today tonight and tommorow being sufficent for refreezing its hard to say how frozen it is by saturday night.

The more I'm looking at this the more I'm thinking we see more of an unorganized blob of snowfall with lake enhancement Saturday night into Sunday...with lighter but disorganized lake effect snow showers beginning as early as tonight and lingering into Sunday afternoon.

The HPC is now showing mesoscale convergence over the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as I mentioned was possible last night (they show it as a front, same thing)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

This is why I'm not too worried about directional shear...this along with the winds being rather weak anyways...however, if we see convergence set up over the area it will likely produce an area of light snow with enhancement from the lake with some open water. The location of the convergence will determine where snow will fall and while the best bet for heavier accums is in the Snowbelt with the front coming in slowly from the N-NE late Saturday, if we get the convergence to settle on the west side there may be accumulations outside of the Snowbelt. This screams of a situation CLE will struggle with.

Snow growth looks good through the duration and inversions (even when counting in a frozen lake like the NAM) will be very high which is why I'm becoming more confident 2-4" of snow will occur over perhaps a decently large area if this works out...I don't want to go with more because it's never easy to tell if the convergence will slowly be moving through the duration with high pressure nosing in...but with a very high fluff factor someone may top out at 5-6" over the course of 24 hours, which is borderline for an advisory especially considering the timing and very fluffy nature of the snow. If Lake Huron gets in the act early Sunday as the flow goes more northerly that may help push local areas to near or just over 6" as well.

[OhioBlizzard]

The high resolution models are so fickle with LES as it is, I'm doubtful they initialize ice cover that well. I'm also sure they are terrible at predicting future ice cover as well. So a minor error in either of those and the models won't have a clue.

At least for CLE and IMBY I'd be surprised if more than 2.5" falls this weekend.

The day 7 potential looks ok for being in fantasy land, but I still think we blew our big snow chance this season on Boxing Day with underperforming snows. I'm almost hoping for a weakening low with a coastal taking over. The icing indications the past few days don't seem appealing.

0z was definitely hinting at this, but being a week out and with the way the models have been recently, hard to buy into any one particular solution to say the least.

[OhioBlizzard]

The more I'm looking at this the more I'm thinking we see more of an unorganized blob of snowfall with lake enhancement Saturday night into Sunday...with lighter but disorganized lake effect snow showers beginning as early as tonight and lingering into Sunday afternoon.

The HPC is now showing mesoscale convergence over the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as I mentioned was possible last night (they show it as a front, same thing)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

This is why I'm not too worried about directional shear...this along with the winds being rather weak anyways...however, if we see convergence set up over the area it will likely produce an area of light snow with enhancement from the lake with some open water. The location of the convergence will determine where snow will fall and while the best bet for heavier accums is in the Snowbelt with the front coming in slowly from the N-NE late Saturday, if we get the convergence to settle on the west side there may be accumulations outside of the Snowbelt. This screams of a situation CLE will struggle with.

Snow growth looks good through the duration and inversions (even when counting in a frozen lake like the NAM) will be very high which is why I'm becoming more confident 2-4" of snow will occur over perhaps a decently large area if this works out...I don't want to go with more because it's never easy to tell if the convergence will slowly be moving through the duration with high pressure nosing in...but with a very high fluff factor someone may top out at 5-6" over the course of 24 hours, which is borderline for an advisory especially considering the timing and very fluffy nature of the snow. If Lake Huron gets in the act early Sunday as the flow goes more northerly that may help push local areas to near or just over 6" as well.

Oh I agree on the lake enhancement and convergence. I'm just thinking that the banding may be more or less "burst" like and less congealed due to the shear considering the ice and that it is a horizontal roll convection event. But the convergence like you said should help to minimize these effects and shear shouldn't be terrible throughout.

 

If we can get a huron connection going, and somewhat stationary, I too would not be surprised at a few areas going over half a foot. CLE mentioned this morning that advisories may be possible, which I agree with, but now with them leaning that way, I think I may need to rethink that idea

[Trent]

One of the BUF models that updated at 12z showed some interesting convergence scenarios in the Eastern Lakes. While I doubt they're accurate in precise placement, there'll probably be some isolated big winners this weekend and a few losers.

[OhioBlizzard]

One of the BUF models that updated at 12z showed some interesting convergence scenarios in the Eastern Lakes. While I doubt they're accurate in precise placement, there'll probably be some isolated big winners this weekend and a few losers.

Yea I agree.Some of the new high res models have a nice huron connection getting going. The only thing keeping my excitement in check is the ice. Have to see how it looks in the morning but mid to upper teens tonight isn't going to help.

[Trent]

The latest WRF out of IWX looks very favorable for the Cleveland area tomorrow. But I've seen this model be over ambitious in the past.

[OHweather]

Just read the afd on my phone...mentioned possible warnings...I think that is rather agressive...I think widespread 2-4" with local higher amounts if some nice convective bands can set up...still think local 6" amounts are possible...which is not warning criteria overall.

[OhioBlizzard]

Just read the afd on my phone...mentioned possible warnings...I think that is rather agressive...I think widespread 2-4" with local higher amounts if some nice convective bands can set up...still think local 6" amounts are possible...which is not warning criteria overall.

Me too. Who knows maybe CLE nails one for once...

[FL510]

Light snow pellets on-and-off today in Chagrin Falls.  Only a dusting as most of it melted as it fell, but there were some very large flakes mixed in from time-to-time.

 

Only 1 day of the next 7 is forecast to be at normal temperatures by the NWS.  The other days are forecast to be below normal, a couple of them at least 15 degrees colder than average.

[OhioBlizzard]

Well I had a bit of extra time today so I put together a map. Don't really have much time to explain everything behind my reasoning so I'll keep it brief. Most of the parameters look favorable so I won't go through those that do, but there are a few main limiting factors of significance that I see for this event. #1 is the ice cover. Really won't know till tommorow how big a hindrence this may be. #2-Duration. Really only an 18-24 hr event (I'm not including the nominal hrs of tonight and tommorow morning) #3-Shear, not that large of a hindrence, but could be near 30-45 degrees at times, so I think we could see some cellar burst type snow at times esp. where a huron connection is not helping.

 

On the map light blue is 1-3", dark blue 2-4", and purple 3-6"+. Its pretty obvious where I'm thinking the best chance of a huron connection sets up. Put SW Geagua in the 3-6"+ since I think they will be on the edge of the lake huron moisture and their elevation will give them enough of an added boost. Overall confidence is low to medium with this one. With not knowing exactly how the ice is going to be setup by tommorow, its a tough forecast. If I was CLE I would go advisory for Ashtabula and play it by day for lake and geagua. This should be a fun one to watch play out.

[NEOH]

Haven't paid much attention to the latest model runs. Woke up to a coating of snow... sun has been in and out of the clouds. Feels like an early spring day. My interest in winter is definitely waning. It will be interesting to see if the LES can fire up tonight.