Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OhioBlizzard]

Models now in good agreement on 850mb temps dipping to -10 to -12C tomorrow afternoon by around 18z...with high low-mid level RH's and modest synoptic lift between about 18z-0z as the remnant deform moves through...this looks like a typical lake enhancement situation with marginal delta-t's and significant breaks in the ice...meaning some moisture will be picked up.

 

Although low level lapse rates will be marginal for true lake effect, the additional moisture being rung out by a moderate NNW flow over the higher terrain should allow for a 6-8 hour period of light to moderate snow focused on the higher terrain in the primary and secondary Snowbelts, with light snow showers in the lower terrain.

 

This should generate 2-4" in the hills east of Cleveland into the primary belt...and 1-2" in the hills of the secondary belt...and an inch or less below 1000' where terrain enhancement will be minimal...in Ashtabula into NW PA where there is a bit more open water, and where the rain/snow changeover may occur sooner as the mid-level low fills as the coastal takes over, which may allow for some true synoptic snow to fall there, a little more than 4" may fall...CLE's adviosry for that area looks good.

I wouldn't be shocked if there are a few locals in the secondary that squeek out 3", but in general 1-2" is a good call. Some of the 0z run model data coming in keeps good low level moisture over our region longer, which would allow lake enhancement/effect to last into very early saturday morning which could allow for some slightly higher totals. There is a discrepency though, gfs shuts it off quickly while nam lets it linger a while longer. I'd side more with the gfs but am interested to see what the latest hi res data to come in shortly shows.

[OHweather]

I wouldn't be shocked if there are a few locals in the secondary that squeek out 3", but in general 1-2" is a good call. Some of the 0z run model data coming in keeps good low level moisture over our region longer, which would allow lake enhancement/effect to last into very early saturday morning which could allow for some slightly higher totals. There is a discrepency though, gfs shuts it off quickly while nam lets it linger a while longer. I'd side more with the gfs but am interested to see what the latest hi res data to come in shortly shows.

GFS has consistently been most progressive with the east coast storm Friday night into Saturday and remains so, so we'll see if it's too quick in shutting things off.

[OhioBlizzard]

GFS has consistently been most progressive with the east coast storm Friday night into Saturday and remains so, so we'll see if it's too quick in shutting things off.

Yea it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Hi res shut things down right around midnight, maybe a tad later but with not much of anything significant after midnight. I think 1-3" for secondary and 2-4" for primary with isolated 5" amounts.

[OHweather]

Yea it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Hi res shut things down right around midnight, maybe a tad later but with not much of anything significant after midnight. I think 1-3" for secondary and 2-4" for primary with isolated 5" amounts.

The HRW has 4-6" over the primary and initialized with a frozen lake, so we know the ceiling now

But yeah, 2-4", maybe up to 5" across eastern Ashtabula Co. into NW PA seems reasonable in the higher terrain.

[Trent]

Temps are now in the mid 40's with full sun. Ouch on today's forecasted high of 37 and mostly cloudy. CLE has a forecasted low of 29 IMBY... doubt it drops below 40 at this point as southwesterly winds will pick up overnight and clouds move in.

 

Yep. Looks like a low of 39 last night. Pretty much sat in the low 40s all night. I don't know what they were looking at to think it was going to dip below freezing last night.

 

Down to a slushy one inch of snow here with lots of bare patches on the front lawn. We'll see what the deform band drops as it swings eastward. But appears that the freezing rain threat is over with temps still at 39 and the bulk of the precip already through.

[NEOH]

Yep. Looks like a low of 39 last night. Pretty much sat in the low 40s all night. I don't know what they were looking at to think it was going to dip below freezing last night.

 

Down to a slushy one inch of snow here with lots of bare patches on the front lawn. We'll see what the deform band drops as it swings eastward. But appears that the freezing rain threat is over with temps still at 39 and the bulk of the precip already through.

 

Made it down to 38 IMBY. CLE's best forecasts come when they collaborate with other offices. It can get ugly when they are on their own... like yesterday.  About 2 inches left, maybe 3 in spots. There were actually a few wet snow flakes coming down on my way out to Chagrin. Melting should stop pretty soon.

 

I'm really not expecting more than an inch tops... anything more would be a bonus. Looks like the backside precip may skirt by to the north.

[OhioBlizzard]

The HRW has 4-6" over the primary and initialized with a frozen lake, so we know the ceiling now

But yeah, 2-4", maybe up to 5" across eastern Ashtabula Co. into NW PA seems reasonable in the higher terrain.

Yikes, deform band is pretty ragged as it approaches NE ohio. Really thought we were going to get a decent burst of snow with it. Lake enhancement should help to "invigorate" it a bit here soon, but I think the amounts we thought last night are going to be high. Also, probably going to have to be in the northern primary or north of 322 now to get anything worth mentioning (i.e. greater than an inch).

Made it down to 38 IMBY. CLE's best forecasts come when they collaborate with other offices. It can get ugly when they are on their own... like yesterday.  About 2 inches left, maybe 3 in spots. There were actually a few wet snow flakes coming down on my way out to Chagrin. Melting should stop pretty soon.

 

I'm really not expecting more than an inch tops... anything more would be a bonus. Looks like the backside precip may skirt by to the north.

CLE has had some many bad calls this year you can't even keep track of them anymore. I'm right at about 2" left also. No grass showing. Deform band looks ragged. I doubt I get more than half an inch here. Maybe northern primary can get 1-2" with isolated 3" amounts but I can't see anything more than that. Precip. does look to be trying to just skirt the far northern snowbelt.

[Trent]

Normally you'd see the radar light up like a christmas tree right now as the deform band rolls in. Apparently enough ice cover in the western basin to inhibit enhancement at the moment.

[NEOH]

Yikes, deform band is pretty ragged as it approaches NE ohio. Really thought we were going to get a decent burst of snow with it. Lake enhancement should help to "invigorate" it a bit here soon, but I think the amounts we thought last night are going to be high. Also, probably going to have to be in the northern primary or north of 322 now to get anything worth mentioning (i.e. greater than an inch).

CLE has had some many bad calls this year you can't even keep track of them anymore. I'm right at about 2" left also. No grass showing. Deform band looks ragged. I doubt I get more than half an inch here. Maybe northern primary can get 1-2" with isolated 3" amounts but I can't see anything more than that. Precip. does look to be trying to just skirt the far northern snowbelt.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't even consider it a defo band. Grass is showing in spots that were baked by the sun yesterday, but that's about it. Still pretty solid snow cover. My call of 1" may bust too high. Ugly storm for northern ohio. Looks like everyone to the north did pretty well with snowfall. Normally at this point of the winter latitude doesn't hurt us but not the case this time around.

[FL510]

Perhaps there is a energy transfer to the East Coast blizzard and the air over Ohio is becoming unenergized and drying out?

[Trent]

Anything that would have fallen/what scraps that do fall will melt Sunday regardless.

CLE starting to stand out on its own with lack of snow this winter for the immediate region. SE Michigan and Central Ohio are running respectable surpluses for the year.

[NEOH]

Normally you'd see the radar light up like a christmas tree right now as the deform band rolls in. Apparently enough ice cover in the western basin to inhibit enhancement at the moment.

 

Exactly. Just not happening though. Although it might once it hits open water up near Erie. Sun is out by 4pm?

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah, I wouldn't even consider it a defo band. Grass is showing in spots that were baked by the sun yesterday, but that's about it. Still pretty solid snow cover. My call of 1" may bust too high. Ugly storm for northern ohio. Looks like everyone to the north did pretty well with snowfall. Normally at this point of the winter latitude doesn't hurt us but not the case this time around.

Technically it is but I see what your saying. Very ugly indeed for us and I have seen some totals near a foot in michigan and southern onatrio. So close yet so far.

Perhaps there is a energy transfer to the East Coast blizzard and the air over Ohio is becoming unenergized and drying out?

Yes a tranfer is taking place now.

[OhioBlizzard]

Anything that would have fallen/what scraps that do fall will melt Sunday regardless.

CLE starting to stand out on its own with lack of snow this winter for the immediate region. SE Michigan and Central Ohio are running respectable surpluses for the year.

Those two areas have done well, but besides them, most of the rest of the MW hasn't done all that well either. Does suck that other areas so close to us are above average while we are quite a bit below.

[Trent]

As usual, the warmth almost always overperforms. A balmy 49 today with sunshine all morning before the clouds built in this afternoon. I highly doubt tonight's 90% chance of rain materializes; I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get any measurable rain. 

 

The visible earlier didn't look all that great for Lake Erie. This week will probably feature a stagnant Lake Erie ice cover, so I'm doubtful the cold NW flow produces much of anything.

 

CLE is still running neck and neck with last year for lack of snow. By Tuesday last winter will move ahead of this winter in terms of season to date snowfall. 

[NEOH]

As usual, the warmth almost always overperforms. A balmy 49 today with sunshine all morning before the clouds built in this afternoon. I highly doubt tonight's 90% chance of rain materializes; I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get any measurable rain. 

 

The visible earlier didn't look all that great for Lake Erie. This week will probably feature a stagnant Lake Erie ice cover, so I'm doubtful the cold NW flow produces much of anything.

 

CLE is still running neck and neck with last week for lack of snow. By Tuesday last winter will move ahead of this winter in terms of season to date snowfall. 

It was warm today... But very little melting. The strong sw'erly winds should move the ice around. But with our next chance at les not until the weekend who knows what the lake will look like. I've given up on anything substantial unless we can get a lake huron fetch.

[Trent]

It was warm today... But very little melting. The strong sw'erly winds should move the ice around. But with our next chance at les not until the weekend who knows what the lake will look like. I've given up on anything substantial unless we can get a lake huron fetch.

 

Yeah, dewpoints around 20 prevented a mass melt off, but dewpoints should rise above freezing quickly tonight as they move in from the SW. There'll probably be some scraps of snow left along north facing areas especially in the higher elevations, but I'd expect more grass than snow by tomorrow afternoon as a whole. 

 

[OhioBlizzard]

As usual, the warmth almost always overperforms. A balmy 49 today with sunshine all morning before the clouds built in this afternoon. I highly doubt tonight's 90% chance of rain materializes; I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get any measurable rain. 

 

The visible earlier didn't look all that great for Lake Erie. This week will probably feature a stagnant Lake Erie ice cover, so I'm doubtful the cold NW flow produces much of anything.

 

CLE is still running neck and neck with last year for lack of snow. By Tuesday last winter will move ahead of this winter in terms of season to date snowfall. 

GLCFS has the central and western basin at 90-99% ice and with temps only getting in the 40s for a few days I doubt also that much opens up. Tommorow however looks to be rather breezy so that could help loosen things up a bit,but probably not much. Flow does look to be more northerly this time, at least at times, so can't rule a lake huron connection. If that sets up, could have some decent moisture to work with, but thats a ways out yet.

 

It was warm today... But very little melting. The strong sw'erly winds should move the ice around. But with our next chance at les not until the weekend who knows what the lake will look like. I've given up on anything substantial unless we can get a lake huron fetch.

Still have about an inch in Streetsboro on the ground, but that should be gone by afternoon tommorow. I agree, wind should help loosen up the ice a bit. I just hope that the central basin can maybe open up a bit and get at least some open areas in it, that way if we can get a decent NW flow and a huron connection set up, lake erie can provide at least some decent moisture and maybe give us some hope of a moderate event, but thats asking a lot. Doubt western basin opens up much at all.

 

Overall, you know its going to be a boring week when the most exciting thing we got to track is probably the ice cover on Lake Erie.

[Trent]

And goodbye snow. Just a few piles on the edge of driveways and parking lots. 

[NEOH]

Just piles and patches of snow left this morning. Boring week ahead unless a miracle storm pops up on the models.

[OhioBlizzard]

Snow gone here too. Windy as can be though.

[OhioBlizzard]

Looks like the ice on Lake Erie opened up a little, with some breaks in areas, but overall still locked up pretty good. Today won't help. Tommorow and Thursday are going to be in the upper 30's to mid 40s so that will help some, but with overnight lows in the mid 20s I doubt any significant changes. This will be a real hamper on getting anything significant lake effect wise going this weekend unfortunately. A lake huron connection would help, but I doubt we are able to get anything above advisory criteria.

[OHweather]

Yeah, this weekend would be a significant lake effect mainly inland with the NW flow if the lake was open. Hopefully we can get a good look at the ice at some point before Friday, although I'm not sure we'll see a significant period of sunny skies before then. The ice looked loose on Sunday when there were some breaks in the clouds however coverage was decent...which would as OhioBlizzard mentioned keep the lake effect in check this weekend if it doesn't break up some.

[Trent]

There's quite a bit of open water here. But it may just be that the southwesterly winds broke it up along the shore and it'll fill back in with a wind shift.

My eyes are focused on the potentials brewing next week, but a swing and a miss to the west would be a kick in the pants.

[OHweather]

There's quite a bit of open water here. But it may just be that the southwesterly winds broke it up along the shore and it'll fill back in with a wind shift.

My eyes are focused on the potentials brewing next week, but a swing and a miss to the west would be a kick in the pants.

I think even if systems miss to your west next week, there should be enough cold air in place ahead of the storms to at the very least start as snow with both storm threats next week. I'm sure I'll see all rain in this sub-tropical climate I live in down here...already in the middle 40's after yesterdays cold front passage.

[OhioBlizzard]

Yeah, this weekend would be a significant lake effect mainly inland with the NW flow if the lake was open. Hopefully we can get a good look at the ice at some point before Friday, although I'm not sure we'll see a significant period of sunny skies before then. The ice looked loose on Sunday when there were some breaks in the clouds however coverage was decent...which would as OhioBlizzard mentioned keep the lake effect in check this weekend if it doesn't break up some.

Of course for my area we are finally going to get a decent setup for lake effect and the lake will be 80% frozen. Just wasn't our year in the northern secondary.

[OhioBlizzard]

There's quite a bit of open water here. But it may just be that the southwesterly winds broke it up along the shore and it'll fill back in with a wind shift.

My eyes are focused on the potentials brewing next week, but a swing and a miss to the west would be a kick in the pants.

Looking at NOAAs map, that seems to be the case. Thinner near the coast, but out about 10 miles its pretty thick.

 

I think even if systems miss to your west next week, there should be enough cold air in place ahead of the storms to at the very least start as snow with both storm threats next week. I'm sure I'll see all rain in this sub-tropical climate I live in down here...already in the middle 40's after yesterdays cold front passage.

Tuesdays system looks to be a decent shot for our area, although it is hard to trust the models right now. They moved this weekends storm about 800-1000 miles in less than 2 days. Thankfully the worst of the models with this storm is actually set to get an upgrade tommorow morning. Good timing I'd say and hopefully it helps.

[NEOH]

Looking at NOAAs map, that seems to be the case. Thinner near the coast, but out about 10 miles its pretty thick.

 

Tuesdays system looks to be a decent shot for our area, although it is hard to trust the models right now. They moved this weekends storm about 800-1000 miles in less than 2 days. Thankfully the worst of the models with this storm is actually set to get an upgrade tommorow morning. Good timing I'd say and hopefully it helps.

 

It's a pretty decent LES set-up, albeit short duration. I'm sure there is a decent amount of open water in the central basin as the winds were quite strong. Winds may come around northerly enough so there is huron moisture added to the mix which would help.

[NEOH]

I think even if systems miss to your west next week, there should be enough cold air in place ahead of the storms to at the very least start as snow with both storm threats next week. I'm sure I'll see all rain in this sub-tropical climate I live in down here...already in the middle 40's after yesterdays cold front passage.

 

That's my concern... just keep the low south of the OH border otherwise the WTOD will make a run north. Another awful scenario would be a re-developer and we watch the NE get pounded again while OH sits in the screwzone. As you can tell, my optimism for a synoptic system is gone

[OhioBlizzard]

It's a pretty decent LES set-up, albeit short duration. I'm sure there is a decent amount of open water in the central basin as the winds were quite strong. Winds may come around northerly enough so there is huron moisture added to the mix which would help.

Unfortunately just looked at the updated Lake Erie ice cover map. Central basin is pretty locked up until you get till about madison and its still not that open even there. Up by Conneaut it really starts to open up quickly but that wouldn't help any of us. Huron connection would definitely help if we can get it established.

 

That's my concern... just keep the low south of the OH border otherwise the WTOD will make a run north. Another awful scenario would be a re-developer and we watch the NE get pounded again while OH sits in the screwzone. As you can tell, my optimism for a synoptic system is gone

0z run not looking good for our area. Going further west, but we still are a ways out.But the trough axis is going to begin to work out further west into the plains during this time frame, so a further west solution would not surprise me really. Luckily, I think a NE bomb with these systems next week is pretty unlikely. If we can't get anything, I wouldn't mind them getting some rain to go along with those feet of snow they got