Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OHweather]

Yeah, and the GFS/Canadian have trended a little more wintry as well with this Thursday night system for you guys so the trend appears to be towards the Euro...the mid range starting as early as a week from today is getting real interesting in a hurry as well...

[NEOH]

Yeah, and the GFS/Canadian have trended a little more wintry as well with this Thursday night system for you guys so the trend appears to be towards the Euro...the mid range starting as early as a week from today is getting real interesting in a hurry as well...

 

Nice to have some snow prospects on the horizon.

 

Hopefully the thursday night system continues to trend colder. The lakeshore counties seem to hold snow alot better when the lake is iced but it will be close. Anyway, heaviest snow will be well to the north but it would be great to avoid a rainstorm.

[Trent]

Lake Erie looks incredible frozen solid with bright blue skies. Relatively lackluster LES season outside of the far northern primary snowbelt now that the LES season is about wound up for the near future.

I'm anxiously awaiting the euro. Synoptic snow will have to overperform the next 8 weeks.

[NEOH]

Lake Erie looks incredible frozen solid with bright blue skies. Relatively lackluster LES season outside of the far northern primary snowbelt now that the LES season is about wound up for the near future.

I'm anxiously awaiting the euro. Synoptic snow will have to overperform the next 8 weeks.

 

Lake effect season was mediocre at best this year. The visible shot is amazing today.

 

It will be interesting to see what the euro shows. Model trends have been in our favor. BUF had a nice disco on the storm. Sounds like we need a quick phase to stop the warm air intrusion. Lakeshore counties always do well in these borderline situations when the lake is frozen.

[OHweather]

FRI 12Z 08-FEB   2.7     0.5    1009      89      99    0.17     549     542    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -1.8    -5.3    1013      90      75    0.22     540     530    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -4.8    -9.2    1022      82      43    0.03     541     523    

 

12z Euro...no QPF before 6z Friday...probably a rain to like 2-3" of slop for CLE verbatim this run on the Euro.

[NEOH]

FRI 12Z 08-FEB   2.7     0.5    1009      89      99    0.17     549     542    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -1.8    -5.3    1013      90      75    0.22     540     530    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -4.8    -9.2    1022      82      43    0.03     541     523    

 

12z Euro...no QPF before 6z Friday...probably a rain to like 2-3" of slop for CLE verbatim this run on the Euro.

 

Thanks for the text data. Wrong direction. I'll take 2-3" of slop and run. Better than nothing I guess. A subtle shift colder would be nice though.

[LakeEffectOH]

Long time no post here...

 

Since this is such a borderline rain/snow system, I imagine elevation would make some difference.  Per the Euro data for CLE, I don't think it is out of the question to add another 2" to the totals for the higher elevations of Lake & Geauga counties.

[OHweather]

Thanks for the text data. Wrong direction. I'll take 2-3" of slop and run. Better than nothing I guess. A subtle shift colder would be nice though.

No problem.

 

The issue is almost all guidance takes the 850mb low like over Lake Erie if not a little north...which is a tell tale sign that all of Northern Ohio will probably start as rain.

The Euro is slower in allowing the coastal to take over which allows you guys to see some snow on the backside of the primary low over the Great Lakes...a quick transfer and you probably end up with like a slushy inch. Euro is also stronger with the northern stream shortwave which helps.

 

This looks like a 1-3" type deal unless the primary shortwave can dig like another 100 miles south and allow you guys to see all snow...still possible but the western US pattern is becoming decently progressive and there isn't a true 50/50 low to force the shortwave south so I'd lean towards the best staying north of you guys.

On the brightside, despite there being a lot of ice it looks thin and loose...a nice warm up with some rain, while it would kill snow pack, would probably briefly open the lake back up. After the beginning of next week the medium-long range does not look warm...the GFS ensemble 500mb pattern has the look of a monster eastern US snowstorm near the end of next week...there will be stuff to track I'm sure.

[Trent]

Last night's snow actually nudged me above last year's entire seasonal snow total.

At this point the small snows are getting old. It's hard to get excited over 1-2" of slop. Would be nice to track a real storm for once.

[LakeEffectOH]

Sometimes I wonder if it is better snow wise in Boston or Cleveland.  While CLE has more snowcover days that BOS, BOS sure gets some great storms, especially over the past 10 years.  And as OH Weather said, the whole East coast may have a big one next week.  Food for thought.  NE Ohio gets mostly low to moderate impact events with a good 12"+ synoptic happening every few years.  Food for thought.

[OHweather]

Sometimes I wonder if it is better snow wise in Boston or Cleveland.  While CLE has more snowcover days that BOS, BOS sure gets some great storms, especially over the past 10 years.  And as OH Weather said, the whole East coast may have a big one next week.  Food for thought.  NE Ohio gets mostly low to moderate impact events with a good 12"+ synoptic happening every few years.  Food for thought.

I'd take the Snowbelt east of Cleveland over BOS. I'd take BOS over areas outside of the true Snowbelt such as CLE.

[NEOH]

Sometimes I wonder if it is better snow wise in Boston or Cleveland.  While CLE has more snowcover days that BOS, BOS sure gets some great storms, especially over the past 10 years.  And as OH Weather said, the whole East coast may have a big one next week.  Food for thought.  NE Ohio gets mostly low to moderate impact events with a good 12"+ synoptic happening every few years.  Food for thought.

 

CLE is much better for snow cover and moderate events. Some of our lake effect events can put down quite a bit of snow but obviously it doesn't compare to the large east coast storms.

[LakeEffectOH]

I'd take the Snowbelt east of Cleveland over BOS. I'd take BOS over areas outside of the true Snowbelt such as CLE.

 

This is true...This storm is going to be tough for us as we see snow in places like Detroit and maybe Chicago, let alone the slamming the Northeast is going to get while we get rain and maybe some light snow toward the end.  Looks like the cold is coming back and sticking around for a while, so who knows?

[LakeEffectOH]

CLE is much better for snow cover and moderate events. Some of our lake effect events can put down quite a bit of snow but obviously it doesn't compare to the large east coast storms.

This winter we've had snow cover for days when Boston did not, but I would give my right arm to see a 30" blizzard with 40-50mph winds here.  Aside from '78, 1950 & 1913, I don't know of any massive blizzards that Boston and even occasionally, Chicago gets.

[NEOH]

This winter we've had snow cover for days when Boston did not, but I would give my right arm to see a 30" blizzard with 40-50mph winds here.  Aside from '78, 1950 & 1913, I don't know of any massive blizzards that Boston and even occasionally, Chicago gets.

 

Yeah, it has been awhile since we've had a large synoptic storm. I guess we'll have to make due with LES whiteouts from time to time. We are long overdue for a crippling snowstorm. Still a good month left to go this winter.

[NEOH]

Nice disco from CLE. Our only hope is backside the defo. We'll be watching rain drops while it snows heavily just north of the lake.

 

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN ALL AREAS AS A COLD FRONT IS PULLED THROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND STARTS TO PHASE WITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A VALID TREND AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE TO SLOW. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO BE SLOWED DOWN FURTHER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS CONTINUING NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED HELPING TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT BUT COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. AT THIS POINT ONLY CARRYING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS... GENERALLY ACROSS THE SNOW BELT BUT COULD NEED TO BE INCREASED IF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION STALLS

[OhioBlizzard]

Lake effect season was mediocre at best this year. The visible shot is amazing today.

It will be interesting to see what the euro shows. Model trends have been in our favor. BUF had a nice disco on the storm. Sounds like we need a quick phase to stop the warm air intrusion. Lakeshore counties always do well in these borderline situations when the lake is frozen.

Northern Primary had a so so year for lake effect. In my area in the northern secondary, its been the worst year for lake effect in years (even worse than last year). Only had one decent event that gave about 8" in December. Besides that, really haven't had any lake effect worth mentioning. Never could get anything more than a 280 flow. And with the lake frozen, might not be anymore till march.

Long time no post here...

Since this is such a borderline rain/snow system, I imagine elevation would make some difference. Per the Euro data for CLE, I don't think it is out of the question to add another 2" to the totals for the higher elevations of Lake & Geauga counties.

I really don't think elevation will make that much of a difference with this one. Ashtabula county will have the best totals since it is furthest NE (maybe an additional inch or 2) and it is at a relatively low elevation.

I'd take the Snowbelt east of Cleveland over BOS. I'd take BOS over areas outside of the true Snowbelt such as CLE.

I'm the opposite. I'd take CLE first. I know CLE rarely gets the big storms, but I like having a somewhat consistent snow pack. Even though CLE doesn't get nearly the lake effect out east, it still provides excitement on a decent amount of days in the winter for a chance of snow. In Boston its more an all or nothing deal. I guess I just like having more opportunities for snow, even though they aren't all that big most of the time. Just personal preference.

[OhioBlizzard]

Nice disco from CLE. Our only hope is backside the defo. We'll be watching rain drops while it snows heavily just north of the lake.

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN ALL AREAS AS A COLD http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FRONT'>FRONT IS PULLED THROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=GFS'>GFS AND http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ECMWF'>ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH'>TROUGH DEEPENS AND STARTS TO PHASE WITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A VALID TREND AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE TO SLOW. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO BE SLOWED DOWN FURTHER AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH HIGHER http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS'>POPS CONTINUING NE http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=OH'>OH/NW PA FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=TROUGH'>TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED HELPING TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT BUT COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH THE NORTHERLY http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=FLOW'>FLOW

OFF THE LAKE. AT THIS POINT ONLY CARRYING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS... GENERALLY ACROSS THE SNOW BELT BUT COULD NEED TO BE INCREASED IF AXIS OF PRECIPITATION STALLS

Looking at some of the latest hi res models, after the system moves by N to NW flow over the lake with 850s dropping down to -10/-12. With good forcing, might be able to kick up some lake enhancement with deform band. If the lake wasn't almost completely frozen I'd probably be pretty excited, but given the ice I doubt much more than 1-3" falls. Clear skies tonight and temps in the teens will probably lock up whatever little bit was still open. The only hope I see of us getting into something more significant would be if we could get some decent moisture of lake huron, which is a possibilty. Unfortunately low level moisture moves out fast so even if we do get some huron moisture, it probably would be pretty short lived.

[FL510]

http://www.cleveland.com/weather/blog/index.ssf/2013/02/ice_builds_up_on_lake_erie_but.html#incart_river_default

[Trent]

That should make it interesting tomorrow. However delta t's with that much ice are reduced. Getting a major event with this ice cover is unlikely, but sometimes a few isolated spots do well in mini bands.

It's been a terrible snow year for the western portion of the secondary snowbelt. CLE really benefits from enhancement events and north/northwesterly LES events that have been non existent this season. If Hinckley is getting 12" from LES and a northerly flow then CLE will get 5", but we haven't had any of those setups in quite some time.

[OhioBlizzard]

That should make it interesting tomorrow. However delta t's with that much ice are reduced. Getting a major event with this ice cover is unlikely, but sometimes a few isolated spots do well in mini bands.

It's been a terrible snow year for the western portion of the secondary snowbelt. CLE really benefits from enhancement events and north/northwesterly LES events that have been non existent this season. If Hinckley is getting 12" from LES and a northerly flow then CLE will get 5", but we haven't had any of those setups in quite some time.

Yea, I doubt anything major. Probably more on the line of 1-3/2-4" for everything (backside snow/lake enhancement). Anything more than that would be a real bonus. Id even be happy with 1-3" just for some stat padding.

Not mush better for lake effect here in Steetsboro either.Been a SW-W-(barely) WNW lake effect year. Only event I can recall that had a decent NW flow was around the 22nd of december when I picked up 8". Other than that there really hasn't been anything else worth mentioning.

[Trent]

I'm staring at some respectable breaks on the ice right now.

The notoriously overdone high res models want to bring 2-4" of wrap around/les/enhancement snows tomorrow afternoon into nightfall. Definitely bears watching. If the lake were wide open I'd feel more confident.

With the impending warm up and low water content snow pack, bare patches will start to pop up soon ... especially with sun and increasing sun angles.

[NEOH]

Shifting winds over the next 24 hrs should push the ice around. Stil not expecting anything from this storm outside of an inch, maybe 2.

 

Full sun and temp around 40 now. Definitely over performing today. The sun really does its dirty work this time of the winter. Although melting is slow with the dew so low.

[OhioBlizzard]

I'm staring at some respectable breaks on the ice right now.

The notoriously overdone high res models want to bring 2-4" of wrap around/les/enhancement snows tomorrow afternoon into nightfall. Definitely bears watching. If the lake were wide open I'd feel more confident.

With the impending warm up and low water content snow pack, bare patches will start to pop up soon ... especially with sun and increasing sun angles.

Surprised with it being it the teens last night everything didn't lock up, but thats good to hear. If we can get some lake huron moisture I think 2-4" would be doable in spots in the primary belt, but we will see.

Snowpack is holding strong down in Streetsboro so I think we should survive today as long as we don't get too much rain tonight. That sun is definitely getting strong though. Doesn't help that we are already about 5 degrees warmer than what CLE predicted for today.

[NEOH]

Surprised with it being it the teens last night everything didn't lock up, but thats good to hear. If we can get some lake huron moisture I think 2-4" would be doable in spots in the primary belt, but we will see.

Snowpack is holding strong down in Streetsboro so I think we should survive today as long as we don't get too much rain tonight. That sun is definitely getting strong though. Doesn't help that we are already about 5 degrees warmer than what CLE predicted for today.

 

Temps are now in the mid 40's with full sun. Ouch on today's forecasted high of 37 and mostly cloudy. CLE has a forecasted low of 29 IMBY... doubt it drops below 40 at this point as southwesterly winds will pick up overnight and clouds move in.

[Trent]

BKL up to 45 with sun. The airport property has completely melted off its snow. Not that hard being windswept 24/7 but impressive nonetheless. Cracks in ice have really opened up too this afternoon, ice must be very thin.

[NEOH]

Cuyahoga county airport temp is 54. They always run 4-5 degress too warm but that ridiculous.

[FL510]

Have about 3" left in Chagrin.  It was a beautiful afternoon!

[OHweather]

Models now in good agreement on 850mb temps dipping to -10 to -12C tomorrow afternoon by around 18z...with high low-mid level RH's and modest synoptic lift between about 18z-0z as the remnant deform moves through...this looks like a typical lake enhancement situation with marginal delta-t's and significant breaks in the ice...meaning some moisture will be picked up.

 

Although low level lapse rates will be marginal for true lake effect, the additional moisture being rung out by a moderate NNW flow over the higher terrain should allow for a 6-8 hour period of light to moderate snow focused on the higher terrain in the primary and secondary Snowbelts, with light snow showers in the lower terrain.

 

This should generate 2-4" in the hills east of Cleveland into the primary belt...and 1-2" in the hills of the secondary belt...and an inch or less below 1000' where terrain enhancement will be minimal...in Ashtabula into NW PA where there is a bit more open water, and where the rain/snow changeover may occur sooner as the mid-level low fills as the coastal takes over, which may allow for some true synoptic snow to fall there, a little more than 4" may fall...CLE's adviosry for that area looks good.

[OhioBlizzard]

Temps are now in the mid 40's with full sun. Ouch on today's forecasted high of 37 and mostly cloudy. CLE has a forecasted low of 29 IMBY... doubt it drops below 40 at this point as southwesterly winds will pick up overnight and clouds move in.

Yea, big bust on temps today. With the snow on the ground, surprised we made it up that high. It definitely felt like spring.

BKL up to 45 with sun. The airport property has completely melted off its snow. Not that hard being windswept 24/7 but impressive nonetheless. Cracks in ice have really opened up too this afternoon, ice must be very thin.

Good to hear cracks are opening up. Should help with the enhancement tommorow.

Have about 3" left in Chagrin. It was a beautiful afternoon!

Down to about 2.5-3" in Streetsboro. As long as we don't get too much rain tonight, should be able to hold onto the snowpack before things change back over to snow in the morning.