OHweather Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What is your take for those located in WNY? Do you think those 15-20 miles south of Buffalo will make out decently from this event? Also, when winds go SW Friday Night into Saturday does Metro Buffalo finally have a chance to receive a good dosing, utilizing the entirety of the Lake gathering moisture. Seeing as your such an expert in Lake Effect I thought you find this quite astonishing! "West Seneca (about 7 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo) totaled 30” with 7” of this falling in just one 30 minute period between 3:30 p.m.-4:00 p.m. on December 2nd according to local storm spotters." http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=8 I think you (assuming your 15-20 miles south of Buffalo) will get in on the heavier snow at times...tomorrow with a more WSW flow...potentially for a time Friday morning there may be some moisture off of Lake Huron/Georgian Bay...and again Friday night for a time as the winds go back to the SW...although by Friday night I think band will be on the move at a fairly decent clip. All and all I can see you getting like 2-4" tomorrow...1-2" tomorrow night into Friday...and another 1-2" Friday night into Saturday as the band shifts back north...so maybe 4-8"? I really can't fathom snow falling at that sort of clip...I've seen 4" in an hour once, which isn't anywhere near 14" an hour...and I thought that 4" per hour was pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice forecast as usual. Lake county looks great at this point. Hopefully the winds can come around a little more nw'erly than forecasted. The western basin looks a glass of Mexican ice water. Alot of that ice will flush out as winds turn westerly. Nice to see the open water. I feel pretty good about this event despite it being so short... And wind direction concerns. Thanks. Yeah, was nice that the rain and torch did its job over the past couple of days. I think there will be a nice mega band Thursady night into Friday morning...question is where does it setup. Wind direction looks similar to last Monday night when the mega band focused from downtown east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The WRF's appear to keep it focused near the shoreline through late Thursday evening before beginning to shift things south towards Friday morning when the runs end. The hi-res NAM appears to be initializing with too much ice over Lake Erie...I'll have to pursue webcams later and try to figure out how much ice melt has occurred. They cancelled classes and closed the campus here thanks to a fugitive on the loose soo I guess I have time to do nothing better Thats crazy. Never heard anyone getting school off because of a fugitive on the loose. Thats a new one lol One thing that may help is a connection to a lake MI band... things might work out better for those on the southwest fringe. Yea I have noticed that some of the high resolutions have been featuring that. Could help boost snow totals for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Thanks. Yeah, was nice that the rain and torch did its job over the past couple of days. I think there will be a nice mega band Thursady night into Friday morning...question is where does it setup. Wind direction looks similar to last Monday night when the mega band focused from downtown east. I'm thinking that the mega band should begin tommorow evening in Lake county and slowly works its way south. Making its way into the Chardon/rt. 6 area around midnight +/- a couple hrs. Then finally settling into the southern primary belt by 4 to 5 am. May even settle into the northern secondary for a short time before flow begins to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Made a few minor adjustments to the lake effect map. Link is here: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=30525&view=findpost&p=1677804 Blue is 1-3", orange 3-6", and red 6-12". Thought about putting an area of 8-12"+ in the chardon, lake, and northern asht. county areas, but given the briefness of the event decided against it. I do think that the northern secondary will get into the action briefly friday morning and should be enough to put down an inch or two. Also, I have 3-6" in the southern primary but expect totals to be on the lower end of those amounts esp. in the solon, chagrin falls, orange area where 3-4" should about do it. Tommorow looks like mainly the northern primary to lakeshore will be getting into the action with it shifting south from there towards evening. Good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Had a few bursts of snow so far and man was it coming down hard for a brief time. Blowing sideways too. Almost blizzard like conditions on the roads right now when in one of those bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm at the airport now and it was dumping. Will be cool at take off to get a birds eye view of the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm at the airport now and it was dumping. Will be cool at take off to get a birds eye view of the bands. Still coming down here too. Picked up nearly an inch so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm at the airport now and it was dumping. Will be cool at take off to get a birds eye view of the bands. Safe travels.. You are going to have an awesome view of the LES bands... all the way west to Lake MI. Give us a report on the lake ice when you can . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Just took a look at the Toledo lighthouse webcam. Nothing but open water. I'm sure there are ice sheets out there but shouldn't have much of an impact on this event. It's extremely windy which is probably going to hold any significant band development in check until the winds calm down. No doubt someone will get crushed as the primary band will most likely develop on a connection to an upstream band. IWX WRF shows the band settling south nicely later tonight. Given the southern bias this should put the primary snowbelt in a great location (just north of the 422 corridor on east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Just took a look at the Toledo lighthouse webcam. Nothing but open water. I'm sure there are ice sheets out there but shouldn't have much of an impact on this event. It's extremely windy which is probably going to hold any significant band development in check until the winds calm down. No doubt someone will get crushed as the primary band will most likely develop on a connection to an upstream band. IWX WRF shows the band settling south nicely later tonight. Given the southern bias this should put the primary snowbelt in a great location (just north of the 422 corridor on east). Good news about the ice. Looking at some of the newest data, looks like banding should begin to develop in the next couple of hours in the northern primary belt and wobble around there for a few hours before trying to sink south later tonight. I'd be shocked if areas up near painsville, geneva, ashtubula weren't getting some decent snow by 4 or 5pm as convergence looks to increase significantly in the next few hours and like you said a lake michigan connection could develop. Tonight will be interesting. Still think some of the action gets all the way down to the summit/portage line but its a close call. I agree that the heaviest of it will likely stay north of 422 however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Good news about the ice. Looking at some of the newest data, looks like banding should begin to develop in the next couple of hours in the northern primary belt and wobble around there for a few hours before trying to sink south later tonight. I'd be shocked if areas up near painsville, geneva, ashtubula weren't getting some decent snow by 4 or 5pm as convergence looks to increase significantly in the next few hours and like you said a lake michigan connection could develop. Tonight will be interesting. Still think some of the action gets all the way down to the summit/portage line but its a close call. I agree that the heaviest of it will likely stay north of 422 however. Its always painful to watch the snow over the lake head to the NE while waiting for the winds to turn. Good to hear things should start shifting later this afternoon. The snow in these random snowshowers is heavy... rates will be impressive in any band forms. Lake effect is so tricky to forecast. I'd imagine the primary band that forms will have an upstream connection... hopefully that doesn't happen well to the north over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Its always painful to watch the snow over the lake head to the NE while waiting for the winds to turn. Good to hear things should start shifting later this afternoon. The snow in these random snowshowers is heavy... rates will be impressive in any band forms. Lake effect is so tricky to forecast. I'd imagine the primary band that forms will have an upstream connection... hopefully that doesn't happen well to the north over the lake. Yea it isn't fun to watch it out over the lake esp. for you being so close. How much have you gotten up there so far? I definitely agree on the upstream connection. The good news is that where that band is coming onshore is SW New York, it is snowing to beat the band. So hopefully once it moves onshore in NE ohio, we can get similar results. Fetch may be a bit shorter, but hopefully should still be able to have some impressive rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yea it isn't fun to watch it out over the lake esp. for you being so close. How much have you gotten up there so far? I definitely agree on the upstream connection. The good news is that where that band is coming onshore is SW New York, it is snowing to beat the band. So hopefully once it moves onshore in NE ohio, we can get similar results. Fetch may be a bit shorter, but hopefully should still be able to have some impressive rates. I'm in my office in Chagrin so I'm not sure what I've got at home. Not much around here yet. Snowing off and on though. Hopefully the wind shift isn't delayed. Conditions are prime overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Winds are starting to turn upstream. Radar isn't all that impressive. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. Winds always take longer than expected to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Winds are starting to turn upstream. Radar isn't all that impressive. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. Winds always take longer than expected to come around. Looks like banding finally came onshore around 6 in lake and ashtabula counties. Took a little bit longer than expected. Im also a bit surprised by the radar and activity. Like you said not all that impressive, although I bet under the higher reflectivities that 1 inch an hour rates are occurring. After looking at some of the parameters, it seems there may be a couple reasons why things are taking a bit longer than expected to flare up. One could be the wind speed in the lower levels. Its been ripping pretty good and there is a decent chance that the high wind is sheering off the bands and not allowing them to form into a solid line if you will. This could explain the more speckled look we have seen and are seeing now. Another could be the instability, which should increase overnight. Still it has been sufficient throughout the day so this shouldn't be a major factor currently but could have some effect. Another potential problem is the depth of the mixed layer, but this should increase overnight. Also, Convergence has gotten better but still isnt ideal. Currently the main problem in my opinion is that the winds are too strong in the lower levels and lack of good convergence. Both of these should get better overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Partly cloudy in Chagrin now. What few cumulus there are seem thin, on I-271 I could easily see Tower City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Problem seems to be dominant band off of Lake MI has been trekking over northern Lake Erie, and the convergence from that band has limited convergence along the southern lake shore. Either way it looks like the I-90 corridor in Lake/Ashtabula Counties has been getting hit off and on and probably has a few inches down.Either way bands off of Lake MI are really shifting more NW-SE oriented and the dominant band associated with the convergence I talked about in my long post yesterday is slowly shifting south through the Detroit metro...my guess is a more organized band will form over southern Lake Erie after 1am as convergence increases in that area as the primary band shifts south and stops robbing convergence from the southern lakeshore. Question is does the band then stall over the primary belt or slip into the secondary belt as a more NW flow aloft later tonight suggests. The convergence has a long way to go before reaching the southern lakeshore and that will take several more hours...winds start going more westerly by late tomorrow morning and more SWrly by tomorrow evening so I don't think the band makes it far south of the primary belt. Thus I still like the 322 corridor north for best accums. I see 3-6" already down as of early evening across northern Geauga and Ashtabula Counties.Reminds me of the situation last year where Lake County got dumped on...winds were more WNW in that situation however dominant band off of Lake MI dominated snow band location over Lake Erie and the amount of snow that was able to form south of that primary band was very minimal despite the WNW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Somewhat surprised at the activity on the radar right now. Things should be going better than they are so it got me curious on the ice cover. Needless to say there is a lot more ice out on the western basin than what I expected. Not saying that this is the sole reason things are going so slow, but when 30-40% of the fetch has a decent amount of ice on it, it can definitely be a factor. On another note, short wave is rolling though in the next few hours. Hopefully that can invigorate things a bit. As of 10 pm a location in northern geagua had over 3" and pierpont had about 6" so far. Other than that its been minor accums everywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Very surprised at the activity on the radar right now. Things should be going better than they are so it got me curious on the ice cover. Needless to say there is a lot more ice out on the western basin than what I expected. Not saying that this is the sole reason things are going so slow, but when 30-40% of the fetch has a decent amount of ice on it, it can definitely be a factor. On another note, short wave is rolling though in the next few hours. Hopefully that can invigorate things a bit. As of 10 pm a location in northern geagua had over 3" and pierpont had about 6" so far. Other than that its been minor accums everywhere else It's not ice...there was moisture being picked up off the western basin earlier and I doubt it has refroze...the band stretching from near Detroit over northern Lake Erie is minimizing convergence over southern Lake Erie...which is why big bands are often called "dominant"...they make it hard for other bands to form nearby. If you check out the Lake Effect Snow 2 parameter on the SPC mesoanalysis page you can see how the low level winds are pulled more to the due west over western Lake Erie while winds inland are more WNW...hence no convergence. As the band shifts south that should change...I didn't expect it to hang out as far north as Detroit all day personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's not ice...there was moisture being picked up off the western basin earlier and I doubt it has refroze...the band stretching from near Detroit over northern Lake Erie is minimizing convergence over southern Lake Erie...which is why big bands are often called "dominant"...they make it hard for other bands to form nearby. If you check out the Lake Effect Snow 2 parameter on the SPC mesoanalysis page you can see how the low level winds are pulled more to the due west over western Lake Erie while winds inland are more WNW...hence no convergence. As the band shifts south that should change...I didn't expect it to hang out as far north as Detroit all day personally. I didn't say ice was the sole reason for the lack of activity. If you read my post from a few hours ago I site convergence as one of the main problems. I said that Ice could be part of the problem. Sure moisture is being picked up, its not 100% frozen. More in the 30-60% range, but this could certainly have an effect. Incorrect on the no convergence occurring right now though. There is some convergence over the northern primary belt right now in northern ashtabula. If I could post paid sites id put it up here but its against the rules. Although its not optimal like I said earlier, there is convergence occurring in lake and especially n. ashtabula right now. West winds over the lake and 250-260 over northern asht. = convergence albeit not great. You cant see it on the spc page, not detailed enough but its there. I agree, that it will increase from its current state in the next few hours however and begin to slowly sag south as the night goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I didn't say ice was the sole reason for the lack of activity. If you read my post from a few hours ago I site convergence as one of the main problems. I said that Ice could be part of the problem. Sure moisture is being picked up, its not 100% frozen. More in the 30-60% range, but this could certainly have an effect. Incorrect on the no convergence occurring right now though. There is some convergence over the northern primary belt right now in northern ashtabula. If I could post paid sites id put it up here but its against the rules. Although its not optimal like I said earlier, there is convergence occurring in lake and especially n. ashtabula right now. West winds over the lake and 250-260 over northern asht. = convergence albeit not great. You cant see it on the spc page, not detailed enough but its there. I agree, that it will increase from its current state in the next few hours however and begin to slowly sag south as the night goes on. Yeah I saw that you sited poor convergence. The convergence is weak right now, bottom line. I think if we had better convergence near the western lake shore farther west we wouldn't be having this conversation...it's hard to gauge ice cover right now. Which site do you use? I'm just curious if it's something I have access to. I have accu pro but I really only use it for Euro related data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Here's a higher res view of the winds off of the SPC page...weak convergence is extending into Lakeshore Ashtabula and there is actually divergence near the central lakeshore. The band over northern Lake Erie is weakening so hopefully another area of convergence can take over farther south over the next few hours and affect areas farther away from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Banding dropped south and settled over southern cuyohoga and geagua counties overnight. Even made it into northern summit/portage counties literally 2 miles to my north, figures. Been ripping pretty good for a couple hrs there. Probably a few inches so far. Flow should begin to back in a few hrs so I wouldnt be surprised to see things begin to lift north starting in about 4-5 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah I saw that you sited poor convergence. The convergence is weak right now, bottom line. I think if we had better convergence near the western lake shore farther west we wouldn't be having this conversation...it's hard to gauge ice cover right now. Which site do you use? I'm just curious if it's something I have access to. I have accu pro but I really only use it for Euro related data. Yea, it was there across N. Asht. but I agree that it was on the weaker side and if it extended further west that would certainly have helped. For ice, I was just looking at the GLCFS page, not sure how accurate there map was due to the wind but was assuming that it at least was in the ballpark of what was really going on out on the lake. I have accupro, so youd have access. Do you use animator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Chagrin Falls picked up 4" since midnight and it was snowing very heavily at 6 a.m. Area schools are closed and WCLV reports lots of accidents. Looks loke the winds are backing and the band is moving north. Just a very light snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Disappointing event so far IMBY. Woke up at 5:30 with about an inch. As the band shifted north picked up another quick 2 inches. The eastern burbs have been caught in the transition zone. Was really thinking the band would be able to lock-in to one location for at least 4-6 hours. Really surprised the winds are backing so quickly. What's causing this? Upstream winds are still NW'erly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just my luck! Appears my area was destroyed by a very narrow band. I90 looks a mess on the west side. Probably 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Chagrin Falls picked up 4" since midnight and it was snowing very heavily at 6 a.m. Area schools are closed and WCLV reports lots of accidents. Looks loke the winds are backing and the band is moving north. Just a very light snow here now. Nice. Im a bit surprised how quick things are shifting. Its occurring about an hour or 2 before I thought. Disappointing event so far IMBY. Woke up at 5:30 with about an inch. As the band shifted north picked up another quick 2 inches. The eastern burbs have been caught in the transition zone. Was really thinking the band would be able to lock-in to one location for at least 4-6 hours. Really surprised the winds are backing so quickly. What's causing this? Upstream winds are still NW'erly. I think you should be pretty good the next few hours if I remember your location right. Shift north has occurred and should level out for a while where it presently is at or drift northwards perhaps a bit but should be slower now. You should have a decent few hour window. One thing to remember is that the trough axis at the upper levels is over us or centered slight to our west. That in itself is not helpful when looking for a NW flow. Also, HP is centered off to our SW which is already nosing in ridging just to our south, while a weak surface trough is just north of lake erie, which is helping keep the winds to our north slightly north of west. Luckily we had that shortwave move through last night which helped us for a time get the snow to shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just my luck! Appears my area was destroyed by a very narrow band. I90 looks a mess on the west side. Probably 8" Lol. Travel more often! Band is reforming along the lakeshore again. Definitely an odd event is terms of band placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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