Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OhioBlizzard]

It's possible, but would have been very short lived. Had a brief period of sleet at about 8 last night before switching to moderate snow. Temp warmed overnight so when it switched to rain there might have been a brief accretion. When I went to bed my car was covered in snow and when I went to work this morning it had all melted off.

It actually lasted for a few hours before changing to rain or at least it did in my locale.

[OhioBlizzard]

Keeping an eye on the LES potential later in the week. Hard to pin the wind direction down this far out... but it looks like a westerly flow event. Latest runs of the GFS and the Euro both turn the winds more NW'erly which would be good. 280 is usually great for primary band development but ice cover is now the wild card.

Latest gfs 0z has the wind pretty steady throughout the event at 270-280 with the exception of sat/sun. Looks like it could be the same areas as last event that get the worst of this one. Looks like a mainly central to northern primary event again. It does not however look to be as long lasting of an event which should keep snow totals lower than last time, unless we can get a primary band to sit for a sustained period of time which is a possibility. Should at least be advisory worthy for lake/geagua/asht/ and cuyohoga counties if not warning worthy. Early to give out amounts but I can see 5-10"+ in the primary belt if not more, but this will become much clearer in the next 24-36 hours. Hopefully the ice loosens up a bit or that could be a limiting factor.

I'm sure there will be something...similar setup as last week's with slightly warmer temps aloft (which is probably good)...the ice cover may limit the southwestward extent of things somewhat as it is primarily the western basin iced over...however my guess the ice will shift around/break up enough over the coming days for some moisture to be picked up off the western basin at least initially. We probably won't have any holes in the clouds though Wednesday or Thursday to diagnose how much the ice breaks up.

Looks like some lake effect Wednesday night-Sunday until decent WAA kicks in...and an impulse on Saturday that may whiten the ground for me down here.

 

As a side note models still ripping a 70-80kt 850mb jet over the whole state from west to east late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Soundings aren't completely stable so some of that should mix down.

 

I'm trying to find an analog to this situation...the 850mb winds are actually progged to be a little stronger than in Sandy...as they only topped out at 60-70kts over northern Ohio with Sandy...however the pressure gradient won't be as intense as it was as Sandy rapidly moved inland that Monday evening. Sandy struggled to produce 50MPH gusts once you got inland from the lake because of a nice low level inversion...but produced 70-75MPH gusts near the lake where there was some instability in the low levels.

With Ike...the 850mb winds again only topped out at around 60 knots over northern Ohio and we saw widespread 55-65MPH gusts...Ike's surface low pressure was actually a bit weaker than what the models are progging to our NW Wednesday...however, the atmosphere was well mixed to around 800mb when Ike blew through.

Another similar situation was April 28, 2011...the low pressure responsible for the tornado outbreak the days prior in the south tracked to near Detroit and deepened to around 992mb by 9-12z on Thursday the 28th. Northern Ohio got absolutely ripped by strong winds in the pre-dawn hours...MFD, CLE, LPR, FDY and CAK all gusted past 60MPH (Lorain gusted to 69). I don't remember the 850mb winds off hand that day but the 12z re-analysis on Plymouth State's site suggests 850mb winds of 50-60kts moved overhead in that situation. However, the pressure gradient in that situation was very tight in the pre-dawn hours and soundings from ILN/PBZ indicate that there was a shallow mixed layer up to around 900mb in that situation.

So, a lot of the strong wind events across Ohio lately (I really hate to use Sandy because it is extremely dissimilar to this situation) had lesser mid-level winds than what we are progged to see on Wednesday...but usually featured some amount of low level instability, which we won't likely see on Wednesday. Sandy produced 45-55MPH gusts away from the lake where there was no low level instability so I suppose I'll use it for conjecture purposes.

The raw gust maps from the NAM/GFS/Euro all suggest minimum 50-60MPH gust potential for a time Wednesday morning with the NAM/Euro blatantly showing 60+MPH gusts for a time...given these products it is hard to go against the idea. The models are likely underdoing low level temps somewhat...most have us in the low to mid 50's 12z Wednesday which is probably a few degrees low, so that may make a difference.

I think when averaging it all together I like a period of ~50MPH gusts Wednesday morning...some areas that may locally see higher are favored downslope areas near the lake...and if any convection can get going and help the cause. I'd be more supportive of surface based convection in the southern and eastern part of the state where dew points will be higher and where the atmosphere may have a chance to destabilize a little before precip moves in mid to late Wednesday morning...for the western 2/3rds of the state it will be a situation where a rotting squall line likely moves in from the west in the morning hours working off of elevated instability which usually doesn't do much...although it will really only take moderate surface based showers to bring winds down to the surface on Wednesday.

 

High winds will certainly be an interesting aspect of this storm. Those analogs bring up many past memories. Ike was surely the most memorable for me. By far did the most widespread damage in my area in probably at least the past 10 years. Doubt we will see anything like that however. That was a unique situation in which gravity waves helped to really bring down some very impressive wind gusts. Conditions with this event will not be conductive for that to happen so I do not see this being anywhere near hurricane ike, but it will certainly be windy/gusty although not sure it will get to advisory levels.

[OHweather]

Latest gfs 0z has the wind pretty steady throughout the event at 270-280 with the exception of sat/sun. Looks like it could be the same areas as last event that get the worst of this one. Looks like a mainly central to northern primary event again. It does not however look to be as long lasting of an event which should keep snow totals lower than last time, unless we can get a primary band to sit for a sustained period of time which is a possibility. Should at least be advisory worthy for lake/geagua/asht/ and cuyohoga counties if not warning worthy. Early to give out amounts but I can see 5-10"+ in the primary belt if not more, but this will become much clearer in the next 24-36 hours. Hopefully the ice loosens up a bit or that could be a limiting factor.

High winds will certainly be an interesting aspect of this storm. Those analogs bring up many past memories. Ike was surely the most memorable for me. By far did the most widespread damage in my area in probably at least the past 10 years. Doubt we will see anything like that however. That was a unique situation in which gravity waves helped to really bring down some very impressive wind gusts. Conditions with this event will not be conductive for that to happen so I do not see this being anywhere near hurricane ike, but it will certainly be windy/gusty although not sure it will get to advisory levels.

I'm not going to guess on LES yet but I'd expect the rich to get richer with that.

I'd expect wind advisories to be needed although warnings are more questionable...if we can get some surface based convection (even if weak) we could see some 50+kt gusts out of this although I'm not too sure what to make of the severe weather/convection aspect of this...other than that I'm more optimistic to the south/east of most of Ohio when the area of rain/thunder running ahead of the front moves into a slightly more unstable airmass. Models are showing enough space between the first wave and the true cold front late afternoon and show a line of showers developing along the front itself late afternoon as it moves through which may do the trick. We'll see.

[Trent]

I won't hold my breath on LES here, but considering I'll be out of town for a few days, I'm sure I'll get hit ... that's generally how things work.

 

I'd bet that the western basin froze pretty solid last week. The torch will probably be short lived enough that the western basin will be full of ice chunks, but not completely open water. These will rapidly freeze back up with the next cold shot. That'd probably keep the same areas as last week just as snowy.

 

In terms of snowpack, it's completely gone here and the snow piles along driveways seem to have bit the dust too. I'm sure the snowbelt has 2 or 3" left, but it'll be gone by sunset.

[NEOH]

I won't hold my breath on LES here, but considering I'll be out of town for a few days, I'm sure I'll get hit ... that's generally how things work.

 

I'd bet that the western basin froze pretty solid last week. The torch will probably be short lived enough that the western basin will be full of ice chunks, but not completely open water. These will rapidly freeze back up with the next cold shot. That'd probably keep the same areas as last week just as snowy.

 

In terms of snowpack, it's completely gone here and the snow piles along driveways seem to have bit the dust too. I'm sure the snowbelt has 2 or 3" left, but it'll be gone by sunset.

 

Not much left IMBY... 1-3 inches at best. My area tends to melt out pretty rapidly compared to the areas to the south in the rolling terrain. Left my office last night and the temp was 45... drove down into the Chagrin Valley and temp dropped to 36 in less than a mile.

 

We are definitely need to see a more nw'erly wind direction for anything significant in cuyahoga county. At this point, lake county on northward looks like the bullseye. One thing we need is the storm to take a more easterly track instead of rocketing north into Ontario. A more easterly track would help back winds more NW'erly after the front comes through.

[NEOH]

Nice trends in the 12z models for LES in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Also, both the NAM and GFS show decent reach around snows just east of the state.

[dta1984]

Nice trends in the 12z models for LES in the Thursday/Friday time frame. Also, both the NAM and GFS show decent reach around snows just east of the state.

 

Great news!  Hopefully ice cover will have broken up quite a bit by then.  

[OhioBlizzard]

Great news!  Hopefully ice cover will have broken up quite a bit by then.  

Should have loosened up quite a bit by Thursday, even though there should still be a decent amount of loose stuff floating around out there.

[OhioBlizzard]

CLE has hoisted lake effect snow watches for cuy, lake, geagua, and asht. counties for 6-12" which was pretty much in line with what I was thinking. I'll try to throw together a snow map before I call it a night.

[OHweather]

I'm thinking 6-10" extreme NE Cuyahoga...Lake, northern Geauaga and much of Ashtabula Counties...will have a much more detailed post tomorrow at some point. Am liking mega band potential Thursday night into Friday.

[OhioBlizzard]

Here is a link to my snow map for this event--- http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=30525&view=findpost&p=1677212

Light blue is a T-3", orange is 3-6", and red is 6-12". Will probably fine tune tommorow night as more high resolution models come into play, but feel pretty good with what I got right now. We will see how it varifies though.

Things are set for another moderate lake effect event to affect parts of the area. Although this event looks to be fairly similar to last weeks there are a few differences. First of all this event will be fairly short lived in relation to last weeks. Only looking at a period of around 36 hrs. +/- 6 hrs.

Things look to get going in the morning rush timeframe of Thursday morning into the early afternoon. Flow should be in the 260-280 range along with abundent moisture up to the 700mb level, along with 850s approaching -15. Directional shear looks to be minor under 30 degrees so a main mega band has a decent chance of forming as we go into the late morning/afternoon. Given the flow, it should hover in the central/northern regions of the primary belt and could do so through the afternoon and most of the evening.

As the trough axis shifts over our area thur. night, this may be enough to shift the flow a bit more northerly. Still a decent amount of deviation in various models as to how much of a northerly component we get, but as of now a shift to 280-300 thur night beginning around midnight is a reasonable assumption. This shift should be enough to get the southern primary belt into the action as the main band sags to the south and other parameters remain favorable. Extreme northern secondary may even get into some banding for a time but that area would be on the far southern extent. Directional shear will increase, so main band may become more disorganized and ragged at this time, and may even have multiple bands going.

Flow will begin to slowly back during the day friday as trough axis shifts east causing the banding to move back into the central/northern primary belt during the afternoon friday and then eventually up the shoreline by friday evening. Dry air will work its way into the lower levels friday evening and this combined with a flow transitioning to SW should end most if not all lake snow in NE ohio by midnight friday ahead of a weak clipper that will work through saturday. Thus, overall I believe that we are looking overall at a short lived but at times intense period of lake snows that will hit the central/northern primary belt the hardest.

[Trent]

A new record high at CLE today.

I find it interesting how the Lake Effect Watch hits the lakeshore wording quite hard. After the last set up, I'm not buying anything over 3" IMBY. Perhaps the Lake County lakeshore will get hit hard, but not west shore Cuyahoga.

[OHweather]

A new record high at CLE today.

I find it interesting how the Lake Effect Watch hits the lakeshore wording quite hard. After the last set up, I'm not buying anything over 3" IMBY. Perhaps the Lake County lakeshore will get hit hard, but not west shore Cuyahoga.

If there is a primary band I invision it staying mainly to your north...although I'll look more at that later.

Very nice squall line pushed through...Ohio University Airport clocked a 46kt gust down here...CAK actually clocked a 51kt gust although CLE decided not to pull the trigger on a warning.

SPECI KCAK 301347Z 27021G44KT 1/2SM +RA BKN014 OVC055 16/13 A2946 RMK AO2 PK WND 21051/1336 TWR VIS 2 PRESRR RAB02 P0002 RVRNO

 

[buckeye]

The line was narrow but pretty impressive. For about 3 minutes it was raining so hard it the visibility looked like something you'd see in a heavy snowstorm.

 

OHweather,  Last night on the 11 news, the local wxman said that last nights temp should be the all-time highest (overnight low) ever recorded for January.  (if i said that right)

[OHweather]

The line was narrow but pretty impressive. For about 3 minutes it was raining so hard it the visibility looked like something you'd see in a heavy snowstorm.

 

OHweather,  Last night on the 11 news, the local wxman said that last nights temp should be the all-time highest (overnight low) ever recorded for January.  (if i said that right)

I can believe it considering most of the state didn't get much below 60 last night...but, I'm not sure it will count because the front will be all the way through well below midnight tonight so the daily numbers won't look quite as impressive as they do now.

[NEOH]

Feels like Spring out there this morning. Winds were howling last night. Not a pile of left snow outside of parking lots. No question the ice on the lake took beating last night. Strong winds should prevent the ice from rapidly re-freezing.

 

CLE and BUF seem on board for a significant LES event. Inversion over 10k ft and plenty of moisture is always a good thing. It's going to be a close call for areas south of I-90 in terms of seeing the heavy snow. The IWX WRF shows the primary band sagging south and sitting over NE cuyahoga out through north central geauga. There is going to be a tight snow gradient thats for sure. A couple degree change in the wind direction could mean the differene between a foot + and a few inches.

[NEOH]

Here is a link to my snow map for this event--- http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=30525&view=findpost&p=1677212

Light blue is a T-3", orange is 3-6", and red is 6-12". Will probably fine tune tommorow night as more high resolution models come into play, but feel pretty good with what I got right now. We will see how it varifies though.

Things are set for another moderate lake effect event to affect parts of the area. Although this event looks to be fairly similar to last weeks there are a few differences. First of all this event will be fairly short lived in relation to last weeks. Only looking at a period of around 36 hrs. +/- 6 hrs.

Things look to get going in the morning rush timeframe of Thursday morning into the early afternoon. Flow should be in the 260-280 range along with abundent moisture up to the 700mb level, along with 850s approaching -15. Directional shear looks to be minor under 30 degrees so a main mega band has a decent chance of forming as we go into the late morning/afternoon. Given the flow, it should hover in the central/northern regions of the primary belt and could do so through the afternoon and most of the evening.

As the trough axis shifts over our area thur. night, this may be enough to shift the flow a bit more northerly. Still a decent amount of deviation in various models as to how much of a northerly component we get, but as of now a shift to 280-300 thur night beginning around midnight is a reasonable assumption. This shift should be enough to get the southern primary belt into the action as the main band sags to the south and other parameters remain favorable. Extreme northern secondary may even get into some banding for a time but that area would be on the far southern extent. Directional shear will increase, so main band may become more disorganized and ragged at this time, and may even have multiple bands going.

Flow will begin to slowly back during the day friday as trough axis shifts east causing the banding to move back into the central/northern primary belt during the afternoon friday and then eventually up the shoreline by friday evening. Dry air will work its way into the lower levels friday evening and this combined with a flow transitioning to SW should end most if not all lake snow in NE ohio by midnight friday ahead of a weak clipper that will work through saturday. Thus, overall I believe that we are looking overall at a short lived but at times intense period of lake snows that will hit the central/northern primary belt the hardest.

Nice forecast. Let's hope the winds turn a little more NW'erly so the wealth can be spread around this time.

[OhioBlizzard]

A new record high at CLE today.

I find it interesting how the Lake Effect Watch hits the lakeshore wording quite hard. After the last set up, I'm not buying anything over 3" IMBY. Perhaps the Lake County lakeshore will get hit hard, but not west shore Cuyahoga.

I too was a little surprised by their wording. Latest run of models have however shifted just a touch more to a W/WSW flow which would benefit those areas along the lake/asht. shorelines. High resolution models arent fully loaded yet however.

Feels like Spring out there this morning. Winds were howling last night. Not a pile of left snow outside of parking lots. No question the ice on the lake took beating last night. Strong winds should prevent the ice from rapidly re-freezing.

CLE and BUF seem on board for a significant LES event. Inversion over 10k ft and plenty of moisture is always a good thing. It's going to be a close call for areas south of I-90 in terms of seeing the heavy snow. The IWX WRF shows the primary band sagging south and sitting over NE cuyahoga out through north central geauga. There is going to be a tight snow gradient thats for sure. A couple degree change in the wind direction could mean the differene between a foot + and a few inches.

Its just incredible, almost scary, to think that the low was only 60 last night. Couldn't agree more about a tight snow gradient. Will be a huge difference if winds hold at 270, vs 275 or 280 for folks in eastern cuyohoga and central geagua.

Nice forecast. Let's hope the winds turn a little more NW'erly so the wealth can be spread around this time.

Thanks! I hope we can get at least to 280 maybe 290 at some point Thur. night or friday so I have a chance of getting something down here in Steetsboro and the wealth can be spread a bit. Been a bad year for lake effect here. Never have really had a good NW flow other than the first lake effect event of the season.

Bad news is latest model runs have actually gone a tad bit in the other direction for the flow. Probably will fine tune my snow map this evening and will have to shift everything north a hair which is not good at all for my area. You look to do pretty well with this event though.

[dta1984]

How are the wrfs looking today ? Does the 322 area get in on the action or is it more of a shoreline setup ?

[OHweather]

How are the wrfs looking today ? Does the 322 area get in on the action or is it more of a shoreline setup ?

The WRF's appear to keep it focused near the shoreline through late Thursday evening before beginning to shift things south towards Friday morning when the runs end.

The hi-res NAM appears to be initializing with too much ice over Lake Erie...I'll have to pursue webcams later and try to figure out how much ice melt has occurred. They cancelled classes and closed the campus here thanks to a fugitive on the loose soo I guess I have time to do nothing better

[FL510]

Chagrin needs a boundary layer wind of 290 to 310 to get good lake effect snow. Looks like another Kirtland (or further north) maxima.

[NEOH]

The WRF's appear to keep it focused near the shoreline through late Thursday evening before beginning to shift things south towards Friday morning when the runs end.

The hi-res NAM appears to be initializing with too much ice over Lake Erie...I'll have to pursue webcams later and try to figure out how much ice melt has occurred. They cancelled classes and closed the campus here thanks to a fugitive on the loose soo I guess I have time to do nothing better

 

NAM doesn't veer winds any more than 270, while the GFS brings winds around to 280 but only for a short time. Looks like the NAM features some sort of surface trough well to the north. Not sure if that feature will exist or not.

 

We really need the storm to start taking a more easterly track. If this heads into N MI I'm afraid a WSW will prevail for the most of the event.

[NEOH]

Thanks! I hope we can get at least to 280 maybe 290 at some point Thur. night or friday so I have a chance of getting something down here in Steetsboro and the wealth can be spread a bit. Been a bad year for lake effect here. Never have really had a good NW flow other than the first lake effect event of the season.

Bad news is latest model runs have actually gone a tad bit in the other direction for the flow. Probably will fine tune my snow map this evening and will have to shift everything north a hair which is not good at all for my area. You look to do pretty well with this event though.

 

One thing that may help is a connection to a lake MI band... things might work out better for those on the southwest fringe.

[NEOH]

Correct me if I'm wrong... but this is the 12z run of today's IWX WRF. There is rain taint... but it crushes the eastern burbs out through geauga. The primary band parks itself near the 322 corridor tomorrow night.

 

 

[Trent]

Correct me if I'm wrong... but this is the 12z run of today's IWX WRF. There is rain taint... but it crushes the eastern burbs out through geauga. The primary band parks itself near the 322 corridor tomorrow night.

That model was overdone last week by 400%. It was also biased south.

I have learned to take those as best case scenarios, but 6-10" max will win out 90% of the time.

[NEOH]

That model was overdone last week by 400%. It was also biased south.

I have learned to take those as best case scenarios, but 6-10" max will win out 90% of the time.

 

Yep... I have to remind myself of the southern bias. If half of that precip verified I'd be happy.

 

CLE issued LES warnings. Time to sit back and watch things play out. I'll never understand why they include far western cuyahoga in the advisories.

[OHweather]

1/31/13-2/1/13 Lake Effect Snow Event…

 

 

It’s that time again…we are just hours away from another arctic outbreak with associated lake effect snow. A large +PNA ridge is combining with ridging extending towards the North Pole to direct more arctic air south. A large storm system tracking to our NW right now will be the catalyst for this next shot of air to move in.

 

Although the North Atlantic pattern is fairly progressive the +PNA will help lock in the trough and NW flow aloft through the weekend with the main batch of lake effect snow likely occurring tomorrow through Friday.

 

 

Webcams from western Lake Erie that showed solid ice/snow cover just a couple days ago suggest most of the ice has broken up which should allow for normal moisture flux off the western basin at least through Thursday night when temperatures may get cold enough to allow for ice to begin refreezing despite the windy conditions.

 

 

The HPC show the low pressure turning more northeast this evening allowing winds to come around from a more westerly direction…with a deep cyclonic flow encompassing all of the Great Lakes. The surface trough over the northern Lakes shown above will likely favor shoreline convergence during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night…with the west flow initially taking any banding into extreme northeastern Cuyahoga County…Lake, Astabula, and northern Geauga Counties. Given the initial WSW flow I’m not sure if banding will be able to establish and affect Cleveland proper during the day tomorrow.

 

 

The deep cyclonic flow across the region with a couple of little shortwaves rotating through will ensure very favorable ambient moisture for lake effect beginning late tonight and lasting through Friday morning…with generally 80% or greater RH’s between the surface and 700mb (higher at times) in that time frame…before ridging/dry air briefly builds in Friday night ahead of the next clipper.

 

 

The ECM ensembles show 850mb temps falling through the mid negative teens © during the day tomorrow…yielding lake-850mb temp differentials of -15 to -19C by tomorrow evening (assuming a lake water temp of 0C west of Cleveland and 3C east of Cleveland). Most guidance bottoms out 850mb temps at near -20C Friday morning…which will allow for moderate instability to develop over the lake during the day tomorrow and extreme instability to develop Thursday night into Friday.

 

 

The NAM suggests (when using a little imagination…it is initializing Lake Erie from lake Eastlake east as frozen last I saw) equilibrium levels climbing above 8k feet tomorrow afternoon with a fairly moist mixed layer (again, using some imagination)and decently deep snow growth zone as well.

 

 

Thursday evening into Friday morning as a weak disturbance passes overhead inversions will climb to well above 10k feet with good moisture through the inversion and well above as well.

 

 

Inversions/equilibrium levels then begin slowly coming down Friday as ridging moves in…although don’t drop to below 5k feet until Friday evening…suggesting accumulating is possible through the day Friday.

 

 

As always…band placement will be fun…and will not only depend on wind direction but also on where convergence sets up and where any bands off of Lake MI try to connect to Lake Erie.

 

Initially tomorrow morning I think a band sets up along the eastern shoreline…as the winds go more due westerly as the low tracks farther east it should begin to move farther inland…given the initial band will be north of Cleveland with a WSW flow to start and the winds won’t gain any northerly component until tomorrow evening/night behind a weak shortwave, I think the band will clip downtown from time to time tomorrow but be focused slightly farther north…with the due west flow by tomorrow afternoon the band should then continue east with the southern edge of heavy snow likely from say Bratenahl down the 322 corridor in northern Geauaga County along with Lake/Ashtabula Counties. The weak trough over the northern Lakes screams convergence band near the shoreline so I think this should materialize.

 

Tomorrow night things get a bit more complicated…weak disturbance will push through and allow the winds to veer a good amount…especially just off the surface. Ridging at the surface will keep winds more WSW of any convergence…while they will go more WNW north of the convergence…sheer looks bad on the above graphic but its really not…the NAM keeps CLE south of the band through the duration…larger scale images suggest winds will align quite nicely over the lake.

 

The models are indicating convergence near the IN/OH/MI line between very cold air to the south and modified lake air to the north…behind the disturbance the winds over lake MI should shift more NW and push the modified air farther south…allowing the convergence to shift a bit south late Thursday night into Friday. My concern is…will the convergence shift south of the lakeshore for a few hours near 12z Friday like last event and allow the snow to shift perhaps into Lorain…extreme northern Medina/Summit/Portage Counties? Last event that did happen with a similar flow however the snow weakened as the convergence moved inland from the lake. Thus, I don’t expect significant snows outside of the primary Snowbelt.

 

Late Friday morning surface ridging builds in and should begin slowly pushing the band up the lakeshore. By Friday evening the winds will be SWrly and the snow should be over the lake.

 

All in all…heaviest accums should mainly occur from 322 northward…moisture, moderate to extreme instability and high inversions support potential heavy snow from Thursday afternoon through the first half of Friday. Banding should sit from 322 northward for a good chunk of time and over 6” is likely in that area…locally up to a foot is possible but banding should begin moving enough later Thursday night into Friday to keep totals from really getting high under the band. Totals will drop off quickly to the southwest.

 

 

[Trent]

Yep... I have to remind myself of the southern bias. If half of that precip verified I'd be happy.

 

CLE issued LES warnings. Time to sit back and watch things play out. I'll never understand why they include far western cuyahoga in the advisories.

 

I have a flight to LAX tomorrow, so I wouldn't be shocked at all if some major band finds a way to dump snow IMBY while I'm not there. However, I'm actually going to enjoy 75 and sun in the heart of winter, so I won't be upset if my backyard gets a 3-6" snowfall. 

 

Good luck to all with this event.

 

Maybe we'll get a widespread synoptic event sometime before spring arrives.

[BuffaloWeather]

1/31/13-2/1/13 Lake Effect Snow Event…

 

ECM 48.gif

 

It’s that time again…we are just hours away from another arctic outbreak with associated lake effect snow. A large +PNA ridge is combining with ridging extending towards the North Pole to direct more arctic air south. A large storm system tracking to our NW right now will be the catalyst for this next shot of air to move in.

 

Although the North Atlantic pattern is fairly progressive the +PNA will help lock in the trough and NW flow aloft through the weekend with the main batch of lake effect snow likely occurring tomorrow through Friday.

 

Toledo webcam.jpg

 

Webcams from western Lake Erie that showed solid ice/snow cover just a couple days ago suggest most of the ice has broken up which should allow for normal moisture flux off the western basin at least through Thursday night when temperatures may get cold enough to allow for ice to begin refreezing despite the windy conditions.

 

HPC thurs 12z.gif

 

The HPC show the low pressure turning more northeast this evening allowing winds to come around from a more westerly direction…with a deep cyclonic flow encompassing all of the Great Lakes. The surface trough over the northern Lakes shown above will likely favor shoreline convergence during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night…with the west flow initially taking any banding into extreme northeastern Cuyahoga County…Lake, Astabula, and northern Geauga Counties. Given the initial WSW flow I’m not sure if banding will be able to establish and affect Cleveland proper during the day tomorrow.

 

NAM RH.png

 

The deep cyclonic flow across the region with a couple of little shortwaves rotating through will ensure very favorable ambient moisture for lake effect beginning late tonight and lasting through Friday morning…with generally 80% or greater RH’s between the surface and 700mb (higher at times) in that time frame…before ridging/dry air briefly builds in Friday night ahead of the next clipper.

 

ECM ENS 24.gif

 

The ECM ensembles show 850mb temps falling through the mid negative teens © during the day tomorrow…yielding lake-850mb temp differentials of -15 to -19C by tomorrow evening (assuming a lake water temp of 0C west of Cleveland and 3C east of Cleveland). Most guidance bottoms out 850mb temps at near -20C Friday morning…which will allow for moderate instability to develop over the lake during the day tomorrow and extreme instability to develop Thursday night into Friday.

 

NAM skew 24.png

 

The NAM suggests (when using a little imagination…it is initializing Lake Erie from lake Eastlake east as frozen last I saw) equilibrium levels climbing above 8k feet tomorrow afternoon with a fairly moist mixed layer (again, using some imagination)and decently deep snow growth zone as well.

 

NAM skew 36.png

 

Thursday evening into Friday morning as a weak disturbance passes overhead inversions will climb to well above 10k feet with good moisture through the inversion and well above as well.

 

NAM skew 48.png

 

Inversions/equilibrium levels then begin slowly coming down Friday as ridging moves in…although don’t drop to below 5k feet until Friday evening…suggesting accumulating is possible through the day Friday.

 

NAM wind.png

 

As always…band placement will be fun…and will not only depend on wind direction but also on where convergence sets up and where any bands off of Lake MI try to connect to Lake Erie.

 

Initially tomorrow morning I think a band sets up along the eastern shoreline…as the winds go more due westerly as the low tracks farther east it should begin to move farther inland…given the initial band will be north of Cleveland with a WSW flow to start and the winds won’t gain any northerly component until tomorrow evening/night behind a weak shortwave, I think the band will clip downtown from time to time tomorrow but be focused slightly farther north…with the due west flow by tomorrow afternoon the band should then continue east with the southern edge of heavy snow likely from say Bratenahl down the 322 corridor in northern Geauaga County along with Lake/Ashtabula Counties. The weak trough over the northern Lakes screams convergence band near the shoreline so I think this should materialize.

 

Tomorrow night things get a bit more complicated…weak disturbance will push through and allow the winds to veer a good amount…especially just off the surface. Ridging at the surface will keep winds more WSW of any convergence…while they will go more WNW north of the convergence…sheer looks bad on the above graphic but its really not…the NAM keeps CLE south of the band through the duration…larger scale images suggest winds will align quite nicely over the lake.

 

The models are indicating convergence near the IN/OH/MI line between very cold air to the south and modified lake air to the north…behind the disturbance the winds over lake MI should shift more NW and push the modified air farther south…allowing the convergence to shift a bit south late Thursday night into Friday. My concern is…will the convergence shift south of the lakeshore for a few hours near 12z Friday like last event and allow the snow to shift perhaps into Lorain…extreme northern Medina/Summit/Portage Counties? Last event that did happen with a similar flow however the snow weakened as the convergence moved inland from the lake. Thus, I don’t expect significant snows outside of the primary Snowbelt.

 

Late Friday morning surface ridging builds in and should begin slowly pushing the band up the lakeshore. By Friday evening the winds will be SWrly and the snow should be over the lake.

 

All in all…heaviest accums should mainly occur from 322 northward…moisture, moderate to extreme instability and high inversions support potential heavy snow from Thursday afternoon through the first half of Friday. Banding should sit from 322 northward for a good chunk of time and over 6” is likely in that area…locally up to a foot is possible but banding should begin moving enough later Thursday night into Friday to keep totals from really getting high under the band. Totals will drop off quickly to the southwest.

 

LES 1-30.png

 

What is your take for those located in WNY? Do you think those 15-20 miles south of Buffalo will make out decently from this event? Also, when winds go SW Friday Night into Saturday does Metro Buffalo finally have a chance to receive a good dosing, utilizing the entirety of the Lake gathering moisture.

 

Seeing as your such an expert in Lake Effect I thought you find this quite astonishing!

 

"West Seneca (about 7 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo) totaled 30” with 7” of this falling in just one 30 minute period between 3:30 p.m.-4:00 p.m. on December 2nd according to local storm spotters."

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=8

[NEOH]

1/31/13-2/1/13 Lake Effect Snow Event…

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=87016'>ECM 48.gif

 

It’s that time again…we are just hours away from another arctic outbreak with associated lake effect snow. A large +PNA ridge is combining with ridging extending towards the North Pole to direct more arctic air south. A large storm system tracking to our NW right now will be the catalyst for this next shot of air to move in.

 

Webcams from western Lake Erie that showed solid ice/snow cover just a couple days ago suggest most of the ice has broken up which should allow for normal moisture flux off the western basin at least through Thursday night when temperatures may get cold enough to allow for ice to begin refreezing despite the windy

 

The HPC show the low pressure turning more northeast this evening allowing winds to come around from a more westerly direction…with a deep cyclonic flow encompassing all of the Great Lakes. The surface trough over the northern Lakes shown above will likely favor shoreline convergence during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night…with the west flow initially taking any banding into extreme northeastern Cuyahoga County…Lake, Astabula, and northern Geauga Counties. Given the initial WSW flow I’m not sure if banding will be able to establish and affect Cleveland proper during the day tomorrow.

 

 

The deep cyclonic flow across the region with a couple of little shortwaves rotating through will ensure very favorable ambient moisture for lake effect beginning late tonight and lasting through Friday morning…with generally 80% or greater RH’s between the surface and 700mb (higher at times) in that time frame…before ridging/dry air briefly builds in Friday night ahead of the next clipper.

 

 

The ECM ensembles show 850mb temps falling through the mid negative teens © during the day tomorrow…yielding lake-850mb temp differentials of -15 to -19C by tomorrow evening (assuming a lake water temp of 0C west of Cleveland and 3C east of Cleveland). Most guidance bottoms out 850mb temps at near -20C Friday morning…which will allow for moderate instability to develop over the lake during the day tomorrow and extreme instability to develop Thursday night into Friday.

 

The NAM suggests (when using a little imagination…it is initializing Lake Erie from lake Eastlake east as frozen last I saw) equilibrium levels climbing above 8k feet tomorrow afternoon with a fairly moist mixed layer (again, using some imagination)and decently deep snow growth zone as well.

 

Thursday evening into Friday morning as a weak disturbance passes overhead inversions will climb to well above 10k feet with good moisture through the inversion and well above as well.

 

Inversions/equilibrium levels then begin slowly coming down Friday as ridging moves in…although don’t drop to below 5k feet until Friday evening…suggesting accumulating is possible through the day Friday.

 

As always…band placement will be fun…and will not only depend on wind direction but also on where convergence sets up and where any bands off of Lake MI try to connect to Lake Erie.

 

Initially tomorrow morning I think a band sets up along the eastern shoreline…as the winds go more due westerly as the low tracks farther east it should begin to move farther inland…given the initial band will be north of Cleveland with a WSW flow to start and the winds won’t gain any northerly component until tomorrow evening/night behind a weak shortwave, I think the band will clip downtown from time to time tomorrow but be focused slightly farther north…with the due west flow by tomorrow afternoon the band should then continue east with the southern edge of heavy snow likely from say Bratenahl down the 322 corridor in northern Geauaga County along with Lake/Ashtabula Counties. The weak trough over the northern Lakes screams convergence band near the shoreline so I think this should materialize.

 

Tomorrow night things get a bit more complicated…weak disturbance will push through and allow the winds to veer a good amount…especially just off the surface. Ridging at the surface will keep winds more WSW of any convergence…while they will go more WNW north of the convergence…sheer looks bad on the above graphic but its really not…the NAM keeps CLE south of the band through the duration…larger scale images suggest winds will align quite nicely over the lake.

 

The models are indicating convergence near the IN/OH/MI line between very cold air to the south and modified lake air to the north…behind the disturbance the winds over lake MI should shift more NW and push the modified air farther south…allowing the convergence to shift a bit south late Thursday night into Friday. My concern is…will the convergence shift south of the lakeshore for a few hours near 12z Friday like last event and allow the snow to shift perhaps into Lorain…extreme northern Medina/Summit/Portage Counties? Last event that did happen with a similar flow however the snow weakened as the convergence moved inland from the lake. Thus, I don’t expect significant snows outside of the primary Snowbelt.

 

Late Friday morning surface ridging builds in and should begin slowly pushing the band up the lakeshore. By Friday evening the winds will be SWrly and the snow should be over the lake.

 

All in all…heaviest accums should mainly occur from 322 northward…moisture, moderate to extreme instability and high inversions support potential heavy snow from Thursday afternoon through the first half of Friday. Banding should sit from 322 northward for a good chunk of time and over 6” is likely in that area…locally up to a foot is possible but banding should begin moving enough later Thursday night into Friday to keep totals from really getting high under the band. Totals will drop off quickly to the southwest.

 

Nice forecast as usual. Lake county looks great at this point. Hopefully the winds can come around a little more nw'erly than forecasted.

The western basin looks a glass of Mexican ice water. Alot of that ice will flush out as winds turn westerly. Nice to see the open water. I feel pretty good about this event despite it being so short... And wind direction concerns.