NEOH Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice view of the ice. Western basin is closed for business. Central is mostly open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM offers another snowy commute with a widespread 3-4" falling 7am-1pm tomorrow. Probably the most juiced run I've seen. I have learned recently to keep expectations in check, so 1-2" of fluff is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Hopefully the warm up for a few days next week helps reverse some of the ice cover. Yea I think it will really help to loosen up some of that ice. Doubt we loose it all, but should be some big gaps in it, by midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 NAM offers another snowy commute with a widespread 3-4" falling 7am-1pm tomorrow. Probably the most juiced run I've seen. I have learned recently to keep expectations in check, so 1-2" of fluff is more likely. CLE jumped the gun and put my local down for 2-4" tommorow and another 1-2" tommorow night. Not sure I see 6" out of this, but 3" is reasonable. Kind of surprised they went so high. Some models are showing a nice ribbon of higher qpf streaking SE in the akron/clevenland area, but I am still doubtful. I'd lean more towards 2-4 and at most 3-5. But I think we will all take what we can get with the torch headed our way next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm also surprised CLE went that high, doesn't look all that great upstream. It's been the season of: whatever snow falls, falls, and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Snow started here around 9. Looks like we didn't have dry air problems like some areas west did. Maybe this will be an over achiever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm also surprised CLE went that high, doesn't look all that great upstream. It's been the season of: whatever snow falls, falls, and be happy with it. True, echos look pretty weak out to the west. Looks like columbus area will get the worst of it. RH currently is only 61% and its 12 out so I'm not to hopeful of getting the 2-4 CLE has us down for. I think 1-2 or 1-3 would have been a better call. "It's been the season of: whatever snow falls, falls, and be happy with it." Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Snow started here around 9. Looks like we didn't have dry air problems like some areas west did. Maybe this will be an over achiever? No snow here yet. I hope it just does what its suppose to and gives everyone a few inches. Really don't see an overachiver with this but you never know. We can hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Picked up 1.5 today. Still snowing lightly and the radar looks good to the north. Snow should pick up soon. Another tonight 1-2 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 total of 3.2" so far. nice little event so far. pretty much what the models advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Picked up 1.5 today. Still snowing lightly and the radar looks good to the north. Snow should pick up soon. Another tonight 1-2 maybe? yea its starting to ramp up again. primarily just looks light snow with moderate bursts. I agree 1-2", its the lake "fluff" type of snow so it accumulates quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 yea its starting to ramp up again. primarily just looks light snow with moderate bursts. I agree 1-2", its the lake "fluff" type of snow so it accumulates quick. It's been snowing lightly since at least 7am when I woke up. I'd say we got around 2" overnight here in Chagrin Falls. Still coming down nicely, very picturesque outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 had 2.3" Once again the measurements at CLE are screwed up. The 5 pm climate report had 1.8" yet the end of day total also showed 1.8". It snowed at least an inch after 5 pm yesterday. In fact, even the liquid equivalent precip totals went up! There's no way only 1.8" fell on 0.15 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 That's impossible. The snow was pure fluff. Amazing how bad CLE is at measuring snow. There would probably be more LES coming down across the area if there wasn't so much ice.There's a huge ice sheet just east of the western basin. Hopefully that breaks up the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Went hiking at Holden Arboretum. There's not 20" on ground like the PNS shows. 10" on average with a few areas over a foot. I drove down Chardon road from SOM Center and there's nothing approaching 15"+ on ground. Still scenic nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 After a few sunny breaks this morning, today's light snow has been annoyingly persistent around Chagrin Falls. It's still a decent, accumulating light snow as of 5 p.m. Hopefully, there will be some sunshine before the high clouds thicken on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 That's impossible. The snow was pure fluff. Amazing how bad CLE is at measuring snow. There would probably be more LES coming down across the area if there wasn't so much ice.There's a huge ice sheet just east of the western basin. Hopefully that breaks up the next few days. I agree. For a NWS office you would think they could do better. I will have to look at the latest ice image. Didn't know the central part of the lake had started to freeze up. That would be a big limiting factor. With the torch coming I bet it loosens up a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Went hiking at Holden Arboretum. There's not 20" on ground like the PNS shows. 10" on average with a few areas over a foot. I drove down Chardon road from SOM Center and there's nothing approaching 15"+ on ground. Still scenic nonetheless. Where is holden arboretum? So you would say that at most northern geauga has a foot on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Snow finally let up about an hour or two ago. Had on and off snow all day, but mainly just light stuff. Surprisingly picked up 4.1" total from the system and lake effect, so it turned out to be a half decent event. Now time to lose it all to the torch, yippee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I remember talking about this last winter, but don't remember the specifics. Is it bad siting that can cause bad CLE snow observations at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I remember talking about this last winter, but don't remember the specifics. Is it bad siting that can cause bad CLE snow observations at times? An observer takes the measurements at CLE... not the NWS even though they are located AT the airport. Makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Snow pack will be gone once again this week. Hopefully the ice will break up on the lake so we can get a decent LES event once the front comes through on Wednesday. Would be nice to get one more synoptic event this winter. Outside of last winter, I can't remember a time there were this few synoptic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Snow pack will be gone once again this week. Hopefully the ice will break up on the lake so we can get a decent LES event once the front comes through on Wednesday. Would be nice to get one more synoptic event this winter. Outside of last winter, I can't remember a time there were this few synoptic storms. Its been a rough 2 years thats for sure. I sure hope we can get at least one more maybe two, but with our luck maybe nothing. Currently getting some sleet/frzing rain but it should quickly change to rain in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 The epitome of stat padding snow. Started off as a little bit of sleet, then turned into huge wet snowflakes. Had about 0.7" in a little over a half hour. Then heard the rain drops by 10 o'clock. Everything that fell is pretty much melted already. If you didn't look out your window here last night, you would have missed it. Doubtful even the deep places in the snowbelt survive this. Upper 50s and lows in the upper 40s will a do a number on this. Even without a big storm CLE should have no problem nickeling and diming its way up to last year's total. If you get 3 or so 0.6" snowfalls a week, That'd be an additional 18" of snow by early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Did you guys get an ice accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Did you guys get an ice accumulation? It's possible, but would have been very short lived. Had a brief period of sleet at about 8 last night before switching to moderate snow. Temp warmed overnight so when it switched to rain there might have been a brief accretion. When I went to bed my car was covered in snow and when I went to work this morning it had all melted off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Precip started as sleet/ice last night then changed to snow, then to rain. Had a little under an inch of slop. Seems like every thaw we have is on the extreme side... so no chance of keeping any snow cover. CLE bumped temps up to 60 tomorrow and Wednesday. Snow will be long gone tomorrow with temps and dews in the 40's overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Keeping an eye on the LES potential later in the week. Hard to pin the wind direction down this far out... but it looks like a westerly flow event. Latest runs of the GFS and the Euro both turn the winds more NW'erly which would be good. 280 is usually great for primary band development but ice cover is now the wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Keeping an eye on the LES potential later in the week. Hard to pin the wind direction down this far out... but it looks like a westerly flow event. Latest runs of the GFS and the Euro both turn the winds more NW'erly which would be good. 280 is usually great for primary band development but ice cover is now the wild card. I'm sure there will be something...similar setup as last week's with slightly warmer temps aloft (which is probably good)...the ice cover may limit the southwestward extent of things somewhat as it is primarily the western basin iced over...however my guess the ice will shift around/break up enough over the coming days for some moisture to be picked up off the western basin at least initially. We probably won't have any holes in the clouds though Wednesday or Thursday to diagnose how much the ice breaks up. Looks like some lake effect Wednesday night-Sunday until decent WAA kicks in...and an impulse on Saturday that may whiten the ground for me down here. As a side note models still ripping a 70-80kt 850mb jet over the whole state from west to east late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Soundings aren't completely stable so some of that should mix down. I'm trying to find an analog to this situation...the 850mb winds are actually progged to be a little stronger than in Sandy...as they only topped out at 60-70kts over northern Ohio with Sandy...however the pressure gradient won't be as intense as it was as Sandy rapidly moved inland that Monday evening. Sandy struggled to produce 50MPH gusts once you got inland from the lake because of a nice low level inversion...but produced 70-75MPH gusts near the lake where there was some instability in the low levels. With Ike...the 850mb winds again only topped out at around 60 knots over northern Ohio and we saw widespread 55-65MPH gusts...Ike's surface low pressure was actually a bit weaker than what the models are progging to our NW Wednesday...however, the atmosphere was well mixed to around 800mb when Ike blew through. Another similar situation was April 28, 2011...the low pressure responsible for the tornado outbreak the days prior in the south tracked to near Detroit and deepened to around 992mb by 9-12z on Thursday the 28th. Northern Ohio got absolutely ripped by strong winds in the pre-dawn hours...MFD, CLE, LPR, FDY and CAK all gusted past 60MPH (Lorain gusted to 69). I don't remember the 850mb winds off hand that day but the 12z re-analysis on Plymouth State's site suggests 850mb winds of 50-60kts moved overhead in that situation. However, the pressure gradient in that situation was very tight in the pre-dawn hours and soundings from ILN/PBZ indicate that there was a shallow mixed layer up to around 900mb in that situation. So, a lot of the strong wind events across Ohio lately (I really hate to use Sandy because it is extremely dissimilar to this situation) had lesser mid-level winds than what we are progged to see on Wednesday...but usually featured some amount of low level instability, which we won't likely see on Wednesday. Sandy produced 45-55MPH gusts away from the lake where there was no low level instability so I suppose I'll use it for conjecture purposes. The raw gust maps from the NAM/GFS/Euro all suggest minimum 50-60MPH gust potential for a time Wednesday morning with the NAM/Euro blatantly showing 60+MPH gusts for a time...given these products it is hard to go against the idea. The models are likely underdoing low level temps somewhat...most have us in the low to mid 50's 12z Wednesday which is probably a few degrees low, so that may make a difference. I think when averaging it all together I like a period of ~50MPH gusts Wednesday morning...some areas that may locally see higher are favored downslope areas near the lake...and if any convection can get going and help the cause. I'd be more supportive of surface based convection in the southern and eastern part of the state where dew points will be higher and where the atmosphere may have a chance to destabilize a little before precip moves in mid to late Wednesday morning...for the western 2/3rds of the state it will be a situation where a rotting squall line likely moves in from the west in the morning hours working off of elevated instability which usually doesn't do much...although it will really only take moderate surface based showers to bring winds down to the surface on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Did you guys get an ice accumulation? yes. had 0.15" of freezing rain before it switched over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.