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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread


Trent

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It might be just a wobble right now, but it's already pushed north of here. I don't think my accums have been that great thus far. I'm sure downtown has much more and Shaker Heights out to 271 must be buried/will be buried even more by daybreak.

It looks like a wobble...you should get back into the heavy snow soon enough. I'm more worried about it slipping south of you at 4 or 5am than it staying too far north. There is an expanding area of warmer cloud tops/possibly partly cloudy skies to the north of the band that is expanding and pushing south. Right now that is generating a ton of convergence and really keeping the band going but it looks like the dry air to the north is winning so I'd expect things to wobble back south soon.

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There is certainly a trough over the lake pushing south at a few MPH...we may see the band detach from the shore and weaken over the next few hours and possibly get into the secondary Snowbelt with half inch to inch per hour rates until ridging noses in and pushes the trough back northward...so in short, Trent very well could loose his firehose in an hour or two but will probably get it back at some point late morning or early afternoon. I think you see like 3" out of the deal. 

Yep, snow seems to just have reached its most southern point. Just barely made it into the secondary belt, and its a ghost of its former self. Lacking the convergence it had before. Still about 5 miles to my north, I'll be shocked if I get anything more than a inch here before it heads back north.

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Looks like the next few hours should be the best time for non primary belt areas to get snow. Winds actually should shift to nearly 300 in the next couple hours so the bands may push I little further inland from where they are currently but not much. By late morning ridging begins to nose in and should quickly shift the lake effect back north as winds go W by afternoon and WSW by evening. Could see rates pick back up as this happerns as fetch becomes longer, and convergence more concentrated but not great. Shear is higher today, so kind of doubt the mega band gets going later or for at least any long sustained time. Northern primary would be the best possibility however. Bottom line is that lake effect will be widespread and be affecting more of the southern areas (southern primary belt/ extreme northern secondary belts) the next 4-5 hours before shifting back north come afternoon.

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Nothing really getting its act together today. How did eastern Cuyahoga do last night? There were no PNS reports.

I guess the low ball totals came to fruition. Look at the obs at BKL, but just a wind whipped 3". Small flakes ripped to shreds with single digit temps.

Still running half of normal for the year, with CLE still able to pull off a top ten least snowiest January.

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Just drove to Solon. Considerably less snow here. Grass still showing in a lot of places. Amazing the change from here to the Mayfield area.

Yea it pretty much ended up doing what I mentioned on Sunday. Trough axis was to far west and never let the flow have enough of a northerly component to it for long enough for there to be any significant snow in the southern primary belt. Really was just a central and northern primary event which seemed to be the most likely solution by Sunday. How much did you get in mayfield?

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Nothing really getting its act together today. How did eastern Cuyahoga do last night? There were no PNS reports.

I guess the low ball totals came to fruition. Look at the obs at BKL, but just a wind whipped 3". Small flakes ripped to shreds with single digit temps.

Still running half of normal for the year, with CLE still able to pull off a top ten least snowiest January.

I was worried about the wind/low ratios keeping accums down which is why I didn't draw 12-24" in all the way to the lake shore, although it sounds like the lake shore near Cleveland will struggle to see 6" even if another band flares up tonight, despite the same bands producing 5-10" inland last night with potentially more tonight. Chardon reported 9.5" last night so it wouldn't shock me if much of the 271 corridor saw 5-9" thanks to a bit less wind. Unfortunately, there is a big hole in reports there.

The models showed a relaxation today until the convergence from the land breeze re-flares tonight. I'd think with slightly stronger surface ridging and a slightly weaker flow overall may support the band staying a little farther east...it will probably still hug the lake shore so Cleveland and perhaps the western shore where you are may still be in play but it will probably then stay in lake/northern Geauga and extreme northeastern Cuyahoga...ala 322 on north is probably the best bet for significant accums, as opposed to arching south almost to the 422 corridor. Given even colder temps lending to less snow growth than last night and slightly less moisture/instability I'd lean towards 3-7" under any banding tonight with much less outside of it...however, the banding should continue through tomorrow and may even swing back south tomorrow evening behind a shortwave. 3-7" tonight in areas that saw 5-10" last night would lead to fairly impressive storm totals.

My mom said the northern boarder of Solon had almost 4" (which means anywhere from 2-5") and her house in southern Solon had only around half an inch, so there was a classic lake effect cut off last night.

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Yea it pretty much ended up doing what I mentioned on Sunday. Trough axis was to far west and never let the flow have enough of a northerly component to it for long enough for there to be any significant snow in the southern primary belt. Really was just a central and northern primary event which seemed to be the most likely solution by Sunday. How much did you get in mayfield?

The banding sat in northern Medina/Summit/Portage for hours but just crapped out thanks to weakening convergence and being a bit far from the lake to pick up good moisture...if the banding would have stayed in tack the southern primary and northern secondary would have seen a few inches this morning. It was more of a intensity issue than a wind direction issue.

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Nothing really getting its act together today. How did eastern Cuyahoga do last night? There were no PNS reports.

I guess the low ball totals came to fruition. Look at the obs at BKL, but just a wind whipped 3". Small flakes ripped to shreds with single digit temps.

Still running half of normal for the year, with CLE still able to pull off a top ten least snowiest January.

Friend of mine was up in solon earlier and said about 1.8" storm total. SE cuyohoga did not do well along with southern geagua. Not much of a surprise there though like I have been mentioning for the past couple of days. Conditions were just not there for the more southern areas. I too am curious for central and northern cuyohoga. Couldn't find many reports either. I would guess central maybe at the 3-5 range and northern cuyohoga could be 4-8, but that would be just an estimate from what the radar looked like overnight.

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Some scrap snows almost every day this week will at least keep it feeling wintry, but with CLE averaging 0.7" per day now, the deficit only grows without substantial snowfalls.

The harbor at Edgewater Beach was frozen over today. I'd imagine a calm wind night will cause a rapid ice over of Lake Erie west of Cleveland.

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I was worried about the wind/low ratios keeping accums down which is why I didn't draw 12-24" in all the way to the lake shore, although it sounds like the lake shore near Cleveland will struggle to see 6" even if another band flares up tonight, despite the same bands producing 5-10" inland last night with potentially more tonight. Chardon reported 9.5" last night so it wouldn't shock me if much of the 271 corridor saw 5-9" thanks to a bit less wind. Unfortunately, there is a big hole in reports there.

The models showed a relaxation today until the convergence from the land breeze re-flares tonight. I'd think with slightly stronger surface ridging and a slightly weaker flow overall may support the band staying a little farther east...it will probably still hug the lake shore so Cleveland and perhaps the western shore where you are may still be in play but it will probably then stay in lake/northern Geauga and extreme northeastern Cuyahoga...ala 322 on north is probably the best bet for significant accums, as opposed to arching south almost to the 422 corridor. Given even colder temps lending to less snow growth than last night and slightly less moisture/instability I'd lean towards 3-7" under any banding tonight with much less outside of it...however, the banding should continue through tomorrow and may even swing back south tomorrow evening behind a shortwave. 3-7" tonight in areas that saw 5-10" last night would lead to fairly impressive storm totals.

My mom said the northern boarder of Solon had almost 4" (which means anywhere from 2-5") and her house in southern Solon had only around half an inch, so there was a classic lake effect cut off last night.

Convergence will become much more favorable here in the next few hours and will be focused in the northern primary belt ie far northern geagua, lake, and north half of asht like you said. Given the flow, early this evening wouldn't be surprised if best banding is in lake and N. asht. and then shifts south to mentor chardon coriridor somewhere in the midnight timeframe and becomes more stationary. If it can stay stationary for a while I think 5-9" wouldn't be out of the question especially if one primary band can form, but shear will be higher so not sure yet if this is a viable option. Nonetheless I believe chardon, montville, to thompson will be the big winners when all is said and done and tonight should help those locals

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Nice loop. Looking at that, it baffles me how I only got a tad over 2".

I will say though, that this wasn't fluff at all IMBY.

I think the wind blowing everything away and shredding the dendrites absolutely killed it for you as you said. It's really too bad, based on inland locales you would have seen at least 6" without the negating factors.

Tying into the article posted above, do I recall correctly that you said CLE has never seen single digits with no snow on the ground? And was there officially snow on the ground when CLE got down to 9 degrees last night. It would be amusing if we broke that really strange stat last night.

 

Edit: CLE reporting 0.5" of snow yesterday (on 0.01" liquid) but the snow depth on the climo report says "0"...CLE dropped to 9 degrees at 1:51am and didn't report a visibility lower than 7 miles between midnight and 1:51am...hmm...does this count is the question?

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The banding sat in northern Medina/Summit/Portage for hours but just crapped out thanks to weakening convergence and being a bit far from the lake to pick up good moisture...if the banding would have stayed in tack the southern primary and northern secondary would have seen a few inches this morning. It was more of a intensity issue than a wind direction issue.

Convergence sure did weaken which was a big part of it. But when going back hour by hour there really was only a 6 hour window where the wind direction was adequate for those areas as opposed to a few of days ago where the models had a much larger time frame that was adequate. That is what I more or less was referring to as the flow problem. Big difference having 12-24 hrs of an adequate flow with half decent convergence vs 6 hours and thus the flow issue

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I think the wind blowing everything away and shredding the dendrites absolutely killed it for you as you said. It's really too bad, based on inland locales you would have seen at least 6" without the negating factors.

Tying into the article posted above, do I recall correctly that you said CLE has never seen single digits with no snow on the ground? And was there officially snow on the ground when CLE got down to 9 degrees last night. It would be amusing if we broke that really strange stat last night.

Edit: CLE reporting 0.5" of snow yesterday (on 0.01" liquid) but the snow depth on the climo report says "0"...CLE dropped to 9 degrees at 1:51am and didn't report a visibility lower than 7 miles between midnight and 1:51am...hmm...does this count is the question?

I looked at days with zero snow. There was a trace last night. I also looked at days with zero snow depth, but recorded snow that day, so they were excluded from my list as the temps occurred after the snow fell.

CLE has been below zero with a trace of snow a handful of times, but never below +5 without snow on ground or measurable snow falling that day (e.g. accounting for 11:59pm lows)

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I looked at days with zero snow. There was a trace last night. I also looked at days with zero snow depth, but recorded snow that day, so they were excluded from my list as the temps occurred after the snow fell.

CLE has been below zero with a trace of snow a handful of times, but never below +5 without snow on ground or measurable snow falling that day (e.g. accounting for 11:59pm lows)

Hmm alright so that streak stands.

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I looked at days with zero snow. There was a trace last night. I also looked at days with zero snow depth, but recorded snow that day, so they were excluded from my list as the temps occurred after the snow fell.

CLE has been below zero with a trace of snow a handful of times, but never below +5 without snow on ground or measurable snow falling that day (e.g. accounting for 11:59pm lows)

So your saying that CLE has never in its history been below +5 degrees with completely bare ground? Thats a crazy stat if I am understanding correctly.?

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Main band getting more organized again across lake and northern ashtubula counties as convergence has increased in this area. Convergence should remain favorable in this area overnight (Lake, N. Asht., extreme northern Geagua). Expecting a main band to wobble north and south across this area overnight. Euclid to chardon east and points north is where the heaviest snow should fall overnight. I wouldn't be shocked to see up to 8-10" in a few spots but a general 4-8" seems like a reasonable number. Second area of convergence will remain in the central to southern primary belt for the next few hours so there should be some scattered snow showers in this area for the next few hours. No significant accumulations, maybe up to an inch. Decent convergence tommorow in the far northern snowbelt, so looks like some lake bands will remain across lake and northern ashtubula counties tommorow.

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Cloud tops are cooling and radar returns are beginning to occur over Lake Erie towards the islands...so we may see the weak band going through central Cuyahoga County and far northern Lorain County try to flare up. Mega band has been consistent for almost 6 hours now and has been sliding down the lakeshore at a couple MPH...Ashtabula has been reporting moderate to heavy snow with just a few breaks of visibilities over a mile since 8am...so they are just getting dumped on.

Band showing no signs of weakening with enhanced cloud tops from lake MI now feeding into western Lake Erie...the enhanced clouds over MI have shifted south somewhat over the past couple hours but I'm not sure if it will bring the mega band into Cleveland before things shift back up the shore in the morning, but the weaker bands to the south may be enough to drop a couple inches on portions of Cuyahoga County...will again though be impressive overnight totals where these bands have been persisting.

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Cloud tops are cooling and radar returns are beginning to occur over Lake Erie towards the islands...so we may see the weak band going through central Cuyahoga County and far northern Lorain County try to flare up. Mega band has been consistent for almost 6 hours now and has been sliding down the lakeshore at a couple MPH...Ashtabula has been reporting moderate to heavy snow with just a few breaks of visibilities over a mile since 8am...so they are just getting dumped on.

Band showing no signs of weakening with enhanced cloud tops from lake MI now feeding into western Lake Erie...the enhanced clouds over MI have shifted south somewhat over the past couple hours but I'm not sure if it will bring the mega band into Cleveland before things shift back up the shore in the morning, but the weaker bands to the south may be enough to drop a couple inches on portions of Cuyahoga County...will again though be impressive overnight totals where these bands have been persisting.

yes there will certainly be some impressive totals in the northern snowbelt from overnight. banding in cuyohoga county should begin to work northward here soon

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Can't wait to see the totals out of Euclid and points NE from last night. Haven't heard from NEOH lately, he probably fared well from the band the night before.

 

The west and south sides of the region have been more or less snowless this entire event/month. I can't believe that this winter is less snowy than last winter. With CLE at 17" for the year, they'd need 51" more the rest of the season to break even. I just can't see that happening with the lake already frozen over from the Erie Islands eastward and that will be expanding daily. It will take a couple March 2008 bombs to creep this side of town closer to normal.

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Was just checking out some of the traffic cameras in the region. Looks like it's snowing pretty good in NE Cuyahoga right now. Bare ground for the most part south of the turnpike (mostly grass showing). The secondary snowbelt must be sitting on less than an inch of snow this month! Unreal.

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