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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread


Trent

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CLE upped totals to 1-3 feet in the warning text.

 Shift change?

 

The consistency in products is frustrating.

 

I'm not liking how the current band is not back building. Are we expecting new band formation later?

 

Snowing decently here, but radar upstream doesn't look promising.

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Hey can you post the link for that. Couldn't find it on BUF web page. It does look like the band is trying to wobble south by I think it could just be a wobble and generally stay in the northern primary but we shall see. I agree with the cellular aspect for tommorow. Shear tommorow between surface and 700 mb gets to near 50 degrees which should lead to that type of activity. I agree that if your not under that band your not getting anything. Its actually clear down here in northern portage.

 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/mesomodels.html

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 Shift change?

 

The consistency in products is frustrating.

 

I'm not liking how the current band is not back building. Are we expecting new band formation later?

 

Snowing decently here, but radar upstream doesn't look promising.

Yup, shift change lol.

Cloud tops are cooling over western Lake Erie so even if there is a brief weakening of the band it should flare back up quickly.

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 Shift change?

 

The consistency in products is frustrating.

 

I'm not liking how the current band is not back building. Are we expecting new band formation later?

 

Snowing decently here, but radar upstream doesn't look promising.

I think what is hitting you is just a wobble and it is back building farther north which is consistent with where the best convergence is. I think it will build back up in the euclid, to chardon area, and then sag back farther south around midnight for a longer period of time. When best convergence sags south

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Mixed. It's very windy so they were kind of broken apart. There were a few big ones mixed in.

That's good to hear...have been some concerns floating around about the cold temps stunting snow growth. 850mb temps will still fall a few degrees from where they are now...obviously "big flakes mixing in" will accumulate better than a wind swept pixie dust.

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Man, I just have to post this. Night and Day, old disco in blue. I wonder if this will start a media hype for the nightly newscasts?

 

 

EARLY UPDATE OUT THIS EVENING WITH INCREASE IN STORM TOTALS OFSNOW UP TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE WHERE THE SQUALLS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT24 TO 36 HOURS. WE ARE GETTING SOME REPORTS IN THAT ARE OVER THETOP SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOURHAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES THANTHAT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS EXPECTED...STORM TOTALS MAY NOTBE HIGH ENOUGH.LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS MEGA BAND OF SNOW PERSISTINGFROM NOW UNTIL AT LEAST 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH SOME OF THEREPORTS COMING IN AND RATES OF UP TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR...SOMELOCATIONS COULD BE BURIED IN SNOW BY MORNING.WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILLONLY HAMPER EFFORTS FOR SNOW REMOVAL. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY CAUSING POTENTIALLY LARGE DRIFTSACROSS ROADWAYS.MEDIA...YOU MAY WANT TO STRESS AVOIDING TRAVEL IF AT ALL POSSIBLEAS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO ZERO WITH THE FALLING ANDBLOWING SNOW. THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSERAPID DISORIENTATION AND HYPOTHERMIA IF DRIVERS BECOME STRANDEDAND THEY LEAVE THEIR VEHICLES.WILL LIKELY SEND ANOTHER UPDATE IN A COUPLE HOURS TO REFLECTCHANGES AS NECESSARY.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TUEBUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLETUE WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. THUS THE LAKE EFFECTWARNING WILL BE LEFT GOING UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z WED. WE CAN DECIDETOMORROW WHETHER THE WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER ON WED.

 

 

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Man, I just have to post this. Night and Day, old disco in blue. I wonder if this will start a media hype for the nightly newscasts?

 

 

EARLY UPDATE OUT THIS EVENING WITH INCREASE IN STORM TOTALS OFSNOW UP TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE WHERE THE SQUALLS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT24 TO 36 HOURS. WE ARE GETTING SOME REPORTS IN THAT ARE OVER THETOP SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOURHAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES THANTHAT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS EXPECTED...STORM TOTALS MAY NOTBE HIGH ENOUGH.LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS MEGA BAND OF SNOW PERSISTINGFROM NOW UNTIL AT LEAST 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WITH SOME OF THEREPORTS COMING IN AND RATES OF UP TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR...SOMELOCATIONS COULD BE BURIED IN SNOW BY MORNING.WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILLONLY HAMPER EFFORTS FOR SNOW REMOVAL. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY CAUSING POTENTIALLY LARGE DRIFTSACROSS ROADWAYS.MEDIA...YOU MAY WANT TO STRESS AVOIDING TRAVEL IF AT ALL POSSIBLEAS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO ZERO WITH THE FALLING ANDBLOWING SNOW. THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSERAPID DISORIENTATION AND HYPOTHERMIA IF DRIVERS BECOME STRANDEDAND THEY LEAVE THEIR VEHICLES.WILL LIKELY SEND ANOTHER UPDATE IN A COUPLE HOURS TO REFLECTCHANGES AS NECESSARY.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TUEBUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLETUE WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. THUS THE LAKE EFFECTWARNING WILL BE LEFT GOING UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z WED. WE CAN DECIDETOMORROW WHETHER THE WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER ON WED.

talk about waiting till the last minute lol

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The atmosphere must be super dry. Just flew into CAK and was shocked that skies were partly cloudy with excellent visibility and a few flurries in the distant north. My family in Chagrin reports only a dusting.

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Wow absolutely dumping outside ! Been in mentor for the evening and the wind has been crazy. Snowing harder here than it was there at least now. 90 and 271 are a mess. Appears this event may pan out ! Hard to tell how much has fallen. I'd guess 4-6" since 7 when I left.

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The atmosphere must be super dry. Just flew into CAK and was shocked that skies were partly cloudy with excellent visibility and a few flurries in the distant north. My family in Chagrin reports only a dusting.

yea it has been a northern primary belt only event so far which I feared yesterday. Things will begin to creep south in a few hours however. Still think it will be more on and off in the southern primary belt around 422 which should keep totals from getting too high.

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Wow absolutely dumping outside ! Been in mentor for the evening and the wind has been crazy. Snowing harder here than it was there at least now. 90 and 271 are a mess. Appears this event may pan out ! Hard to tell how much has fallen. I'd guess 4-6" since 7 when I left.

what town do you live in?

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Band of enhanced clouds (with some light returns as well) off of Lake MI is about to connect to the healthy Lake Erie streamer...the trajectories of these clouds suggest the band should shift 10-20 miles south (if not a tad more) over the next few hours as the band kinks with the upstream seeding:

 

 

 

post-525-0-11763800-1358830284_thumb.png

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I wish the metar for BKL would have had an interim update. Nonetheless 12 degrees, heavy snow, and winds gusting to 43 mph. Clearly some folks are going to have official blizzard warning criteria met if they are under the band for extended periods of time.

 

KBKL 220553Z 27021G37KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M11/M12 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 27037/0551 SLP192 P0001 60001 T11111122 11089 21117 50007

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Band of enhanced clouds (with some light returns as well) off of Lake MI is about to connect to the healthy Lake Erie streamer...the trajectories of these clouds suggest the band should shift 10-20 miles south (if not a tad more) over the next few hours as the band kinks with the upstream seeding:

 

 

 

attachicon.gif GRE grab.png

everything seems to be on track. Band shifted south just after midnight and has settled in around east central cuyohoga to central geagua county. Dont think it will move 20 miles south, 10 miles should about do it but we will see. Should bottom out with the heart of the band running on a line from warrensville hts to south russell. Really dont see the absolute heaviest of it going any further south than that, but areas south could still get in on some decent snow. Should bottom out on its southern extent in the next couple hours and remain their till at least daybreak and then in the morning start working back north towards the euclid chardon area as flow shifts more west again. Thats at least what I'm thinking right now.

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everything seems to be on track. Band shifted south just after midnight and has settled in around east central cuyohoga to central geagua county. Dont think it will move 20 miles south, 10 miles should about do it but we will see. Should bottom out with the heart of the band running on a line from warrensville hts to south russell. Really dont see the absolute heaviest of it going any further south than that, but areas south could still get in on some decent snow. Should bottom out on its southern extent in the next couple hours and remain their till at least daybreak and then in the morning start working back north towards the euclid chardon area as flow shifts more west again. Thats at least what I'm thinking right now.

There is certainly a trough over the lake pushing south at a few MPH...we may see the band detach from the shore and weaken over the next few hours and possibly get into the secondary Snowbelt with half inch to inch per hour rates until ridging noses in and pushes the trough back northward...so in short, Trent very well could loose his firehose in an hour or two but will probably get it back at some point late morning or early afternoon. I think you see like 3" out of the deal. 

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There is certainly a trough over the lake pushing south at a few MPH...we may see the band detach from the shore and weaken over the next few hours and possibly get into the secondary Snowbelt with half inch to inch per hour rates until ridging noses in and pushes the trough back northward...so in short, Trent very well could loose his firehose in an hour or two but will probably get it back at some point late morning or early afternoon. I think you see like 3" out of the deal. 

It might be just a wobble right now, but it's already pushed north of here. I don't think my accums have been that great thus far. I'm sure downtown has much more and Shaker Heights out to 271 must be buried/will be buried even more by daybreak.

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