Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OhioBlizzard]

Radar starting to light up some now. Winds currently are at about 300 and should hover anywhere from 280 to 300 the rest of the day. Moisture is currently lacking above 825 mb and will do so for the rest of the day. Winds are still also very strong out over the lack reducing the amount of convergence taking place right now. This combined with the lack of moisture looks to result in just light accumaulations today in the 1-3"+ range anywhere from the northern secondary belt to primary belt. Expecting snow to pick up around 8pm to midnight when low level moisture increases significantly to 700 mb level and the wind calms down leading to better convergence. Winds shift to a more westerly component so it looks like things could shift about 10 to 15 miles north of where they presently are. By early tommorow morning flow turns SSW briefly so the activity could briefly be confined to Lake and Northern Asht. counties before shifting back down again. Going to be a fun event to watch

[NEOH]

Just finished cleaning the yard...lots of branches down. Compared to yesterday it feels brutal outside.

 

I've had a few bursts of snow this morning. Heaviest bands are north and south of here. The real show should begin tonight as Ohio Blizzard mentioned.

 

nice band coming off of lake st.clair... you don't see that often.

[OHweather]

 

Final call...like I said I was going to try to tighten things up and did...

 

First order of business was to trim down the 12-24" area...there was no way the whole Snowbelt would see those numbers...am favoring the 322 corridor into southern Lake/northern Geauga Counties for the band to persist later tonight and then again for a period Monday evening and then again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

 

Made the 8-12" area an 8-14" area. The flow Monday night through a good chunk of Tuesday morning is the type of flow that usually allows the heavier snow to get just south of the Summit/Cuyahoga County boarder and hits a good chunk of southern and even western Cuyahoga County decently. Due to some remaining uncertainty I broad brushed contours there a little bit, however if the band slips farther south into Cuyahoga County and persists which is possible some local amounts of over 1 foot are possible.

 

As for band placement as alluded to above...we should just see light snow showers today with light accums through this evening...tonight the winds will gradually shift from WNW this evening to WSW by morning as a little surface low forms to our north and backs the winds...so could see a band form over like southern/western Cuyahoga into extreme northern Summit/Portage Counties that shifts north towards morning. I'm worried that with a WSW flow for a good chunk of tomorrow that the strongest banding may be stuck over the lake and only clip the extreme eastern Lakeshore for a good chunk of tomorrow...this mean accums over much of NE Ohio would be minimal tomorrow which is part of the reason I trimmed the 12-24" area.

Tomorrow evening the NAM/GFS/Euro all show the winds going solidly WNW...it will probably take a few hours for the banding to shift south which would again hit the 12-24" zone for a few hours before likely settling into southern/western Cuyahoga points east including extreme northern Summit/Portage Counties for a few hours. On Tuesday ridging gradually builds in which should slowly shift things back towards the north. This very well could hit the 12-24" area again for several hours.

What happens Tuesday night and Wednesday is still uncertain...some models bring in enough ridging to push the banding back towards NW PA...while others suggest the ridging won't build in as quickly allowing a more W-WNW flow to continue...with a weak shortwave moving by Wednesday morning the snow should remain fairly heavy under any banding through a good portion of Wednesday...Wednesday is the day that has some bust potential...if the snow stays over Northern Ohio...it may cause amounts to begin exceeding my forecast. For now it is a tough call but the setup Wednesday kind of reminds me of 12/8/10...the event is supposed to end/wind down but convergence is still present and there is still enough moisture/instability to get a nice band which may surprise if it doesn't push too far to the east Tuesday night...something to watch.

[dta1984]

Wow nice writeup OHweather.  Looks like I may be in a good spot here for the event!  How are the wrf's looking?  I lost my link to the buffalo page.  

[OHweather]

Wow nice writeup OHweather.  Looks like I may be in a good spot here for the event!  How are the wrf's looking?  I lost my link to the buffalo page.  

Thanks!

Here's BUF's WRF's:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/mesomodels.html

Here are the larger scale WRF's (48 hour precip 12z run)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=hrw-arw&area=eus&param=precip_p48&cycle=12ℑ=hrw-arw%2F12%2Fhrw-arw_eus_048_precip_p48.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=hrw-nmm&area=eus&param=precip_p48&cycle=12ℑ=hrw-nmm%2F12%2Fhrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif

The models really backed off QPF numbers this morning but I'm not terribly concerned.

[OhioBlizzard]

Just finished cleaning the yard...lots of branches down. Compared to yesterday it feels brutal outside.

 

I've had a few bursts of snow this morning. Heaviest bands are north and south of here. The real show should begin tonight as Ohio Blizzard mentioned.

 

nice band coming off of lake st.clair... you don't see that often.

I had a ton of limbs down too. House was shaking around 4 am because it was so windy

[Trent]

The other thing to keep in mind is that for those along the periphery the snow will come in several waves over several days. So 1-2" here, snow stops for 6-8 hours, another inch, snow stops, 3 inches the next day, etc. The next thing you know it's 4 days later and 8" has fallen but with the fluff factor/wind/settling, there's just 3-4" on the ground.

 

Seems like we need to start paying attention to the Thursday Night/Friday storm too. 

 

All in all, could be a snowy week.

[OhioBlizzard]

Brief Update. Looking at some of the new high resolution and rapid refresh models looks like the trend of the snow showers being confined to the primary snowbelt will continue through the afternoon and into the evening with just flurries elsewhere. Lake, Geagua, Ashtubula, and eastern Cuyohoga counties should have on and off snow showers . By about 7 pm. influx of deeper moisture moves in along with greater convergence so I expect an expansion/intensification later this evening somewhere between 7 and 10 pm. Flow will still be 290 or so around this time so snow will be confined to the primary snow belt. As the night goes on a main band may develop as the flow shifts due west and puts the heaviest snow into central geagua on north, thus only giving southern cuy. and geagua counties a few hours of the heavier snow. By morning the heaviest snow should be into lake and ashtubula counties as flow is transitioning from WNW to WSW. This will for a time produce abundent amount of convergence in those areas and maybe extreme Northern Geagua counties so I could see a band with inch plus an hour totals for a time there before flow completely switches to WSW and becomes more a 'coastal' band. But in general expect things to increase in about 4-5 hours.

[OHweather]

CLE just went with a warning for the primary belt including Cuyahoga for 10-20"...I like the call although obviously southwestern Cuyahoga will see less...I'm liking my map at this point.

[Trent]

Take a look at the latest WRF from IWX. Absolutely buries Cuyahoga County and out east on 322. Develops a primary band hugging the west shore through downtown and into Geauga County that just sits, then moves north, then settles back in and sits and sits.

 

Would be an incredibly event if this plays out. Easily 20"

 

[OhioBlizzard]

The other thing to keep in mind is that for those along the periphery the snow will come in several waves over several days. So 1-2" here, snow stops for 6-8 hours, another inch, snow stops, 3 inches the next day, etc. The next thing you know it's 4 days later and 8" has fallen but with the fluff factor/wind/settling, there's just 3-4" on the ground.

 

Seems like we need to start paying attention to the Thursday Night/Friday storm too. 

 

All in all, could be a snowy week.

whats nice about this event is the ground has had a chance to freeze up before the snow falls so hopefully we can avoid the melting from underneath like in december

[OhioBlizzard]

deeper low level moisture has now entered the western part of the state and is slowly creeping this way. should be here in a few hours

[NEOH]

Take a look at the latest WRF from IWX. Absolutely buries Cuyahoga County and out east on 322. Develops a primary band hugging the west shore through downtown and into Geauga County that just sits, then moves north, then settles back in and sits and sits.

 

Would be an incredibly event if this plays out. Easily 20"

 

IWX_WRF.png[/quote

That's awesome. I'll be doing back flips if that verifies. Quiet out there now. Hopefully radar picks up soon.

[NEOH]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=85678'>snowfall final call possibly.png

 

Final call...like I said I was going to try to tighten things up and did...

 

First order of business was to trim down the 12-24" area...there was no way the whole Snowbelt would see those numbers...am favoring the 322 corridor into southern Lake/northern Geauga Counties for the band to persist later tonight and then again for a period Monday evening and then again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

 

Made the 8-12" area an 8-14" area. The flow Monday night through a good chunk of Tuesday morning is the type of flow that usually allows the heavier snow to get just south of the Summit/Cuyahoga County boarder and hits a good chunk of southern and even western Cuyahoga County decently. Due to some remaining uncertainty I broad brushed contours there a little bit, however if the band slips farther south into Cuyahoga County and persists which is possible some local amounts of over 1 foot are possible.

 

As for band placement as alluded to above...we should just see light snow showers today with light accums through this evening...tonight the winds will gradually shift from WNW this evening to WSW by morning as a little surface low forms to our north and backs the winds...so could see a band form over like southern/western Cuyahoga into extreme northern Summit/Portage Counties that shifts north towards morning. I'm worried that with a WSW flow for a good chunk of tomorrow that the strongest banding may be stuck over the lake and only clip the extreme eastern Lakeshore for a good chunk of tomorrow...this mean accums over much of NE Ohio would be minimal tomorrow which is part of the reason I trimmed the 12-24" area.

Tomorrow evening the NAM/GFS/Euro all show the winds going solidly WNW...it will probably take a few hours for the banding to shift south which would again hit the 12-24" zone for a few hours before likely settling into southern/western Cuyahoga points east including extreme northern Summit/Portage Counties for a few hours. On Tuesday ridging gradually builds in which should slowly shift things back towards the north. This very well could hit the 12-24" area again for several hours.

What happens Tuesday night and Wednesday is still uncertain...some models bring in enough ridging to push the banding back towards NW PA...while others suggest the ridging won't build in as quickly allowing a more W-WNW flow to continue...with a weak shortwave moving by Wednesday morning the snow should remain fairly heavy under any banding through a good portion of Wednesday...Wednesday is the day that has some bust potential...if the snow stays over Northern Ohio...it may cause amounts to begin exceeding my forecast. For now it is a tough call but the setup Wednesday kind of reminds me of 12/8/10...the event is supposed to end/wind down but convergence is still present and there is still enough moisture/instability to get a nice band which may surprise if it doesn't push too far to the east Tuesday night...something to watch.

Looks good. Nice forecast. I'll fell much better once the radar light up.

[OHweather]

Looks good. Nice forecast. I'll fell much better once the radar light up.

Heh I think you aren't the only one who will feel better once things actually get going.

We either need winds over the lake to go just a little more northerly or over land to go a little more southerly to fire up the convergence. There is good convergence over extreme northern PA and WNY and the snow is ripping pretty good there.

[OhioBlizzard]

After looking at the model trends, the trough axis keeps getting centered out west of our area and delayed from moving over the region. This is going to cause problems for areas further south that originally looked like they'd get in decent snow. With that axis stuck 100-200 miles to the west, the flow is going to have a hard time transitioning to anything more than west. Might be able to push it to near 280 but that would be it. In general flow looks now more likely to range from about 250-280 for the event. Therefore I will have to tweak snow fall map amounts significantly. To summarize, I see the northern secondary belt that looked like a decent but of 3-6" being almost completely excluded from the event. Just throwing out a number i'd say 1-3 would now be an appropriate amount. Now moving onto the southern primary belt (southern cuyohoga and geagua) amounts of 2-5" seem more appropriate now with 5" probably being on the high side. Northeastern Cuyohoga and central geauga should be more in the 4-8" range. Lake, Geagua, and Northern Asht. counties still should do quite well with them being the target area for most of the event with a W-WSW wind. Still expect over a foot in areas up there, so not much change for them. Major point that seems to be developing is that the southern Primary belt looks to miss out now on a good chunk of the event and the secondary belt shouldn't get much of any significant impact. If i have time later i'll post an updated map

[OHweather]

After looking at the model trends, the trough axis keeps getting centered out west of our area and delayed from moving over the region. This is going to cause problems for areas further south that originally looked like they'd get in decent snow. With that axis stuck 100-200 miles to the west, the flow is going to have a hard time transitioning to anything more than west. Might be able to push it to near 280 but that would be it. In general flow looks now more likely to range from about 250-280 for the event. Therefore I will have to tweak snow fall map amounts significantly. To summarize, I see the northern secondary belt that looked like a decent but of 3-6" being almost completely excluded from the event. Just throwing out a number i'd say 1-3 would now be an appropriate amount. Now moving onto the southern primary belt (southern cuyohoga and geagua) amounts of 2-5" seem more appropriate now with 5" probably being on the high side. Northeastern Cuyohoga and central geauga should be more in the 4-8" range. Lake, Geagua, and Northern Asht. counties still should do quite well with them being the target area for most of the event with a W-WSW wind. Still expect over a foot in areas up there, so not much change for them. Major point that seems to be developing is that the southern Primary belt looks to miss out now on a good chunk of the event and the secondary belt shouldn't get much of any significant impact. If i have time later i'll post an updated map

I personally wasn't expecting the winds (other than this evening) to go back to WNW until late Monday evening...Monday night southern Cuyahoga/Geauga and far northern Medina/Summit/Portage should still get their shot. We are having trouble getting convergence going this evening although there is some banding into northern Geauga/southern Lake Counties...although again the significant snow wasn't really expected to occur tonight with maybe a few inches at best under any banding. So right now I'm not worried about my forecast.

[OhioBlizzard]

I personally wasn't expecting the winds (other than this evening) to go back to WNW until late Monday evening...Monday night southern Cuyahoga/Geauga and far northern Medina/Summit/Portage should still get their shot. We are having trouble getting convergence going this evening although there is some banding into northern Geauga/southern Lake Counties...although again the significant snow wasn't really expected to occur tonight with maybe a few inches at best under any banding. So right now I'm not worried about my forecast.

I'm hoping for the best but there has significant trending in the flow that really keeps the winds virtually W to at times WSW throughout a good chunk of the event. Decent model consensus on this but not complete. Monday night is the best shot at a more WNW flow like you said, but I see that being at best briefly shifting towards 290 but more in the 280 range. Which I just don't think will be sufficient for the Southern Primary (ie solon on east) and a miss for the northern secondary. Thats not to say I don't see some banding occurring, just not what looked likely a day or two ago. But time will tell. Yea convergence isn't great. But the lower layers are slowly becoming moist in lower levels up to 700mb and activity is slowly becoming more widespread. Looks like a good area of convergence may set up somewhere over northern geauga county in the next couple of hours so hopefully something flares up. Yea I agree on maximum of a few inches at best tonight in the primary belt where bands persist.

[OhioBlizzard]

banding is becoming more concentrated over lake and northern geagua county now since convergence is focused there like I mentioned earlier this evening. at least things are getting a bit more organized

[Trent]

Nice to see a decent band set up. Traffic cameras show white out conditions and snow covered interstates. This morning's run of the IWX WRF (are they the only WFO in our area that still runs these regularly?) still shows a significant (1-2' event)

 

Verbatim that's about 20" of snow in downtown Cleveland and maybe an inch or two at the airport. The snowfall gradient will be extreme. 

 

I remember in December 2010 having 10" of snow and a half mile south had only 4 inches. 

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Nice to see a decent band set up. Traffic cameras show white out conditions and snow covered interstates. This morning's run of the IWX WRF (are they the only WFO in our area that still runs these regularly?) still shows a significant (1-2' event)

 

Verbatim that's about 20" of snow in downtown Cleveland and maybe an inch or two at the airport. The snowfall gradient will be extreme. 

 

I remember in December 2010 having 10" of snow and a half mile south had only 4 inches. 

 

d01_runtotal84_syn.png

yea thats a decent band going. wouldn't be shocked if it already put down 2-4". snowfall gradient will be extreme. still siding with the higher totals a little farther north than originally expected.

[OhioBlizzard]

Quick update. Looks like the convergence last evening really did help to fire up a nice band in northern geagua on north like I mentioned. As far as today goes, a solid area of convergence will continue across n. geagua, lake, and n asht. counties through about 8 am and then slowly work off to the northeast. By about noon, the only area with decent convergence will be the asht. lakeshore which will be shoved out also as a WSW flow takes over completely. The WSW flow will dominate throughout the afternoon before winds shift back westerly around dark and bring decent convergenceback into the northern primary belt with a potential mega band setting up. Unfortunately presently is about as moist as the entire lower layer will get during the event, with it gradual drying out from 700mb on down from here. But this will be gradual so it shouldnt have to large an effect at first. Inversion heights rise this evening, which should allow some decent development to occur.

Thus for today I'm thinking a nice band should linger in the northern primary for another few hours before sliding up the coastline. By around noon, snow showers should be confined mainly to the shoreline and a couple miles inland and remain this way until the evening when a large single band may develop and affect the northern primary belt probably from chesterland on north. Snowshowers this afternoon should be light along the lake shore for the most part since they will just be clipping the coastline area with a WSW flow. Overall I'd say 3-6" is possible in lake, n.asht. , and extreme northern geagua today with maybe 1-3" in the 5 miles south of that area while the rest of northeast ohio gets nothing more than a trace today. This is for the daytime only and does not include the snow that moves back in this evening.

[Trent]

My biggest concern with starting out on SW / WSW wind is then trying to get those bands to shift south once the flow becomes westerly or 270-290. In the past it seems the models are always too aggressive in the southward propagation of the bands. Once again a couple of the high res models have the heaviest snow from northern Lorain through Cuyahoga and into Geauga.

 

If things play out as modeled, tomorrow morning's commute will be hellish. It will be snowing very heavy north of 480, with nothing to the south. You'll have a ton of commuters leave home with perfectly fine road conditions and hit a brick wall of snow. The traffic back-ups will be insane.

[NEOH]

My biggest concern with starting out on SW / WSW wind is then trying to get those bands to shift south once the flow becomes westerly or 270-290. In the past it seems the models are always too aggressive in the southward propagation of the bands. Once again a couple of the high res models have the heaviest snow from northern Lorain through Cuyahoga and into Geauga.

 

If things play out as modeled, tomorrow morning's commute will be hellish. It will be snowing very heavy north of 480, with nothing to the south. You'll have a ton of commuters leave home with perfectly fine road conditions and hit a brick wall of snow. The traffic back-ups will be insane.

 

It's been so long since we've had a decent LES event I've forgotten all of the things that could go wrong. If I remember, CLE's local model always had a southern bias with band placement. It's always tough to get a wind shift without a signifcant mechanism to push the trough south.

 

Talked to a friend in Willoughby this morning... about 4-5 inches overnight. The winds are very light out there so I'm guessing the land breeze helped with convergence overnight. Hopefully the winds pick up a bit... keep the lake churned up to slow ice growth.

[NEOH]

Just looked at Bufkit... winds don't turn any more northerly than 280 late tonight. It's going to be tough to get the band south if there is any sort of land breeze keeping covergence over the lake. Hopefully winds will be strong enough to prevent that and lock the band along the lakeshore.

[Trent]

280 flow parallels coast from Lorain to Downtown, that's a lot of real estate to allow for convergence to set up a band that dumps for points eastward.

Radar looks quiet now and probably will for the rest of the daylight hours.

On a related note, I find it comical how a low of 20 ( just 2 degrees below) normal has garnered so much attention.

[NEOH]

280 flow parallels coast from Lorain to Downtown, that's a lot of real estate to allow for convergence to set up a band that dumps for points eastward.

Radar looks quiet now and probably will for the rest of the daylight hours.

On a related note, I find it comical how a low of 20 ( just 2 degrees below) normal has garnered so much attention.

 

That's pretty much our only hope for pulling out a significant event... or even just a mediocre one. Toledo harbor webcam showing the lake is iced out that way... probably won't make a difference but ice cover is growing.

[Trent]

Latest run of IWX's WRF still has a dominant primary band developing late this evening and lasting all through tomorrow. Watching the simulated radar is incredible. Razor thin cut off to they south, but easily 2' for 271 and geauga county.

Probably about 10-14" IMBY for that run. 2" for CLE.

[dta1984]

Small dusting this morning , but lake county got hit. Hopefully the next band comes a little more south.

Awesome, can't wait for it to start ! Can you post that image Trent ?

[NEOH]

Here's the precip total from the latest run (I think). Looks pretty juiced. Any idea how this model has been performing? If that were to verify from Trent's backyard out east would be buried. Classic 322 band.