Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[carumba]

OK Here it is! Top 10 least snowiest Januarys for Cleveland:

 

 

JANUARY                            1.   0.5  1932      2.   1.3  1919      3.   2.0  1967      4.   2.8  1960      5.   3.1  1916      6.   3.1  1898      7.   3.2  1933      8.   3.7  1950      9.   3.8  1931    10.  3.9  1934

 

We sit at a Trace on January 17th. The big wildcard will be lake effect. If the flow as modeled right now for next week holds, that would keep the airport out of the LES. Could be one of those cases where virtually 90% of the region gets decent snow, but the airport and official measurements show otherwise. 

Wow, talk about back-to-back disasters: 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934 all made the top 10.

[Trent]

Heaviest flurries of the year overnight! I see CLE picked up 0.01" maybe good enough for the first tenth of an inch of snow in 2013? 

[NEOH]

Snowing lighty in Chagrin right now. Really wasn't expecting anything to form on the lake overnight.

 

Per Bufkit, the GFS continues to show 270-290 flow Sun - Wed. Long ways out but the flow has been consistetnly modeled. This would also bring a Lake MI fetch into play.

[michsnowfreak]

Wow, talk about back-to-back disasters: 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934 all made the top 10.

I just referenced that in the Jan thread.  What a disaster though for Detroit it was more 1932-35 than 1931-34.

 

Year.......Snow....1"+ snwcover days...Mean temp.....notes

1932.......0.9"..........0...........36.7F......warmest Jan....3rd least snowy...18 days over 40F, 7 days over 50F

1933.......0.4"..........0...........34.7F......4th warmest Jan....least snowy...17 days over 40F, 1 day over 50F, 0.4" snow Jan 30th only snow of Jan

1934.......6.0"..........8...........30.0F......9 days over 40F, 3 days over 50F

1935.......1.4"..........4...........24.8F......5th least snowy....5 days over 40F

[Trent]

Still doesn't look too bad for next week. I think I'll take the weekend off and see what surprises the AFDs and models show Sunday night.

[OHweather]

Looks like CLE officially got 0.1" on the book. Wow that was like pulling teeth.

[Trent]

CLE still honking a huge event in the latest discussion. Not sure if that should have me excited or concerned.

[NEOH]

CLE still honking a huge event in the latest discussion. Not sure if that should have me excited or concerned.

 

Lol. I was just going to post the latest disco. I'm taking a cautiously optimistic approach. Heavy snow is in my zone forecast Sunday - Wednesday

 

Moisture will be the key ingredient. It's rare we have a wide open lake in mid-January so this situation is pretty unique. Hopefully the western basin can remain ice free... which shouldn't be a problem with the strong winds.

 

If BUF jumps on board I'll feel a lot better.

[NEOH]

Just read BUF's disco. Sound like everything looks good except moisture. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

[OHweather]

The potential for a primary band as opposed to weaker multi-bands makes me feel much better about this event than if we had the exact same parameters and a more NW or NNW flow. Moisture is less than perfect but it is pretty moist almost up to 700mb from Sunday evening through a good chunk of Tuesday. Since I'm still putting forecasts on a Cleveland based website I get to forecast these from Athens while I look forward to partly cloudy skies and 20 degree highs...ugh.

[OhioBlizzard]

OK Here it is! Top 10 least snowiest Januarys for Cleveland:

 

 

JANUARY                            1.   0.5  1932      2.   1.3  1919      3.   2.0  1967      4.   2.8  1960      5.   3.1  1916      6.   3.1  1898      7.   3.2  1933      8.   3.7  1950      9.   3.8  1931    10.  3.9  1934

 

We sit at a Trace on January 17th. The big wildcard will be lake effect. If the flow as modeled right now for next week holds, that would keep the airport out of the LES. Could be one of those cases where virtually 90% of the region gets decent snow, but the airport and official measurements show otherwise. 

I'd be shocked if CLE didnt get at least an inch by Wednesday. If not then this winter is truly a disaster for Cleveland.

[OhioBlizzard]

Snowing lighty in Chagrin right now. Really wasn't expecting anything to form on the lake overnight.

 

Per Bufkit, the GFS continues to show 270-290 flow Sun - Wed. Long ways out but the flow has been consistetnly modeled. This would also bring a Lake MI fetch into play.

yea the flow has been pretty consistent the past few days on the models

[OHweather]

The look of the parameters with this event continue to be very impressive and wind direction favors a primary band:

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Just read BUF's disco. Sound like everything looks good except moisture. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

Yea I'm leaning with BUF compared to CLE. Still think moisture will be a limiting factor but latest run of models however show good moisture all the way up to nearly 750 mb so that is encouraging.

[OhioBlizzard]

The potential for a primary band as opposed to weaker multi-bands makes me feel much better about this event than if we had the exact same parameters and a more NW or NNW flow. Moisture is less than perfect but it is pretty moist almost up to 700mb from Sunday evening through a good chunk of Tuesday. Since I'm still putting forecasts on a Cleveland based website I get to forecast these from Athens while I look forward to partly cloudy skies and 20 degree highs...ugh.

The look of the parameters with this event continue to be very impressive and wind direction favors a primary band:

 

GFS skew.png

Yea 0z has good moisture all the way up to 750mb so things are looking more promising. 850's are also off the charts. Main band or possibly dual band setup looks like a decent bet.

[NEOH]

Big differences between the 12z NAM and GFS. NAM is much more bullish. Wind direction still looks good. Going to be interesting to see what develops.

[OHweather]

I'll probably have a preliminary call later this afternoon and try to finalize things tomorrow...I think this will be quite significant in the primary belt and with a westerly flow Trent may get in the game from time to time. The instability being shown is insane and something you'd expect in a very early season event with low ratios and mixing issues not in the dead of winter. Perhaps the warm December and start to January were meant to be

[NEOH]

 I like your optimism. Looking forward to your snowfall map. My yard stick is ready to go.

 

Lots of variables to consider. Let's assume moisture is sufficient... next hurdle is band placement. Winds seem to always struggle to come around more NW'erly when they start out on a WSW flow. My concern is that anything less than a 280 direction and lake county will be the jackpot.

[OHweather]

1/20/13-1/23/13 Lake Effect Snowstorm Forecast/Discussion:

 

 

After remaining in good agreement on this general scenario for well over a week, the cold blast on the models is within 48 hours. Thanks to a strong +PNA and –AO/-EPO combination a large polar vortex will displace well to the south over the next several days, with lobes of it rotating through the Great Lakes. Thanks to the depth of this vortex, we likely won’t have to deal with low inversion and bone dry air with this arctic airmass, and with an open lake the potential is wide open for significant Lake Effect Snow.

 

Behind the initial frontal passage tonight into Sunday, the core of the PV will remain to our north and initially, the airmass will be shallow and dry:

 

 

Note how the NAM, valid 18z Sunday, does show increasing instability, however there is not much moisture in the mixed layer. Inversions and instability along with the wind direction do support light lake effect however through tomorrow, focused on the primary Snowbelt. Thanks to the dry nature of the airmass however I don’t see a need to go bullish on amounts through tomorrow evening…I’m thinking 1-3” in the primary belt. That will change Sunday night however as a shortwave rotating around the PV brings increased moisture and even colder air overhead:

 

 

The Euro shows a nice shot of 500mb PVA with this feature Sunday night into Monday, and, I’ll show this in a second, the models really increase moisture in this time frame. This shortwave will signify the arrival of a deeper cold air mass, which will allow the lake induced instability to become moderate to extreme Sunday night and peak Monday night:

 

 

Note how the NAM shows mid and lower level RH’s increasing beginning Sunday evening, with deep moisture from the surface through 700mb through a good chunk of Monday night and adequate moisture remaining below about 800mb through Tuesday.

 

 

Note how by 6z/1am Monday, the NAM shows inversions beginning to climb in conjunction with this increased moisture/lift. The light west to WNW flow in the mixed layer causes me to believe a primary band may form Sunday evening and primarily affect the 322 corridor out into Geauga County. The light winds may cause it to hug the lake shore a little more than that so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Elsewhere on Sunday night and early Monday, with good synoptic moisture and lift moving through light snows will be possible outside of the Snowbelt in this timeframe.

 

 

By 18z/1pm Monday the NAM shows the mixed layer deepening in response to colder air moving in aloft with fairly high RH’s in the mixed layer persisting. With a continued westerly flow on Monday, the potential will remain for a primary band to affect anywhere between the 322 corridor and central Lake County. With no southerly component to the wind I believe the band should be affecting northeastern Cuyahoga County in this timeframe.

 

Snow growth through Monday evening will be very good with the DGZ laying from about 2000-7000 feet, which corresponds well to the position of the cloud layer and good lift/omega/moisture. Snow ratios under heavier bands will likely push 20:1 through much of Monday.

 

 

Monday night the DGZ will likely become stunted a little and we may see ratios fall back to more like 15-18:1, however, equilibrium levels will climb to 10-12k feet with lapse rates within the mixed layer approaching the dry abiatics! (I probably spelled that wrong). Regardless, vigorous lift combined with a light and very low shear flow and good moisture through the mixed layer should result in continued heavy LES through Monday night. The models all bring the flow a little more WNWrly Monday night so this may be the time for the primary band to slip into more of Cuyahoga County. At this point I can’t rule it clipping parts of Lorain, northern Medina/Summit/Portage Counties, but at this time I think for the most part it will remain north of those areas.

 

 

During the day Tuesday the models begin moving some ridging into the region with gradually lowering inversions and gradually decreasing moisture. However, with the flow remaining westerly heavy snow should continue under any band. This flow will again continue to favor a primary band somewhere from like Cleveland east down the 322 corridor towards northern/central Geauga County north into central Lake County.

 

 

The models are flirting with either clipping northern Ohio with the northern fringe of some WAA or possibly bringing another shortwave through near or just to our north Wednesday morning. With the GFs showing inversions remaining near 7-8k feet into a good portion of Wednesday with decent moisture and what appears to be moderate lake induced instability lake effect will likely continue through much of Wednesday before really tapering Wednesday night. The models and HPC aren’t agreeing on how much progress surface high pressure will make into the upper Ohio Valley, but that may act to try to shun things more towards Ashtabula and NW PA. Given uncertainty will forecast continued light accumulations across the NE OH Primary Snowbelt with heavier amounts focused towards NW PA Tuesday night through Wednesday.

 

 

An inverted trough or perhaps weak low pressure extending back over the Great Lakes, likely aided by heat released off of the lakes, will combine with high pressure gradually building into the Ohio Valley to cause convergence near the Lake Erie shoreline for much of the event. This leads me to believe we may see a primary band for a good chunk of time Sunday night-Wednesday. Placement of this band is paramount as parameters support steady 1-2” per hour rates beneath the band through much of the event.

 

As discussed above, I’d favor the 322 corridor Sunday night through Monday evening and again Tuesday evening before things shift northeast (possibly) Tuesday night…I’d favor the band getting into southern Cuyahoga/Geauga/Ashtabula counties (and perhaps grazing the next tier of counties for a time) Monday night into Tuesday before shifting northeast Tuesday afternoon/evening…and I do believe there will be a period Tuesday night into Wednesday, at some point, where the band favors the northeast Lakeshore into NW PA.

 

Given expected snow rates beneath this band and the possibility that the 322 corridor and just north may spend an extended period of time under this band, amounts of 1-2’ will be possible. Due to uncertainty what I’ll do is broaden the southern contour of the snow and not go as high in this region as I believe is possible…but I believe where the band sets up may see the higher end of my totals with areas that stay outside of the band likely seeing less…I’ll to try to tighten this up tomorrow at some point.

 

First call:

 

[OHweather]

CLE has reached the point in time where they don't know what they want to forecast:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU TUE NIGHT ASARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUE...TEMPSWILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 10 DEGREES. WIND CHILL HEADLINESWILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE.THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT SUN DUE TOLIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB...MAYBE 1 TO 3 INCHES LOCALLY. ATROUGH MOVES IN SUN NIGHT INTO MON TO BRING INCREASED MID LEVELMOISTURE AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...ASTHIS TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE COULDBECOME DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO CAUSE TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR LAKE ENHANCEDBANDS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS SHOULD RE-ALIGN LATER ON MON ANDREMAIN MORE SO THROUGH TUE. THIS WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR BETTER LAKEEFFECT BANDS TO OCCUR.BETTER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MON AND EVENTHEN SITUATION MAY BE MARGINAL. AFTER COLLABORATION...FOR NOW WILLCONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY WINTER WATCHES AS AN ADVISORY MAY BE ALLTHAT ENDS UP BEING NEEDED.LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE INTO TUE NIGHT SO WHATEVERHEADLINE EVENTUALLY SEEM RIGHT IT MAY HAVE TO RUN INTO AT LEAST TUENIGHT.

 

Seems almost contradictory at times. Oh well.

[Trent]

Yeah. I told myself no model watching this weekend, but of course, I'm following. The CLE discussion sounds like debbie downer lane compared to previous discussions. 

 

As always, nice analysis OHweather.

 

Nothing would be better than an April 2007 type snowfall band placement or Dec 2010!

[OHweather]

Yeah. I told myself no model watching this weekend, but of course, I'm following. The CLE discussion sounds like debbie downer lane compared to previous discussions. 

 

As always, nice analysis OHweather.

 

Nothing would be better than an April 2007 type snowfall band placement or Dec 2010!

Thanks! I'm really not worried about what CLE is saying. Although things will support a nice primary band potentially non-stop from Sunday night through Wednesday a part of me says that it will probably break up or shift at times at some point...very rare to get a primary band set up and last for days although I do think it's possible. NEOH's yard stick would get a work out in that type of situation.

It will be interesting to see where this band sets up in relation to downtown...it could be very close throughout the event. The NAM is focusing things a bit up the eastern shore from downtown but still is certainly clipping downtown with the band.

Despite what CLE says the winds become very well aligned on Monday and with a shortwave moving through Sunday night even with some shear (although still not a ton) I'd expect lake effect to begin getting going good then. The instability/alignment of the flow and decent moisture say that it may be rip city somewhere Monday evening-Tuesday morning, and it still looks decent on either end of that time frame although not quite top end.

[NEOH]

Thanks! I'm really not worried about what CLE is saying. Although things will support a nice primary band potentially non-stop from Sunday night through Wednesday a part of me says that it will probably break up or shift at times at some point...very rare to get a primary band set up and last for days although I do think it's possible. NEOH's yard stick would get a work out in that type of situation.

It will be interesting to see where this band sets up in relation to downtown...it could be very close throughout the event. The NAM is focusing things a bit up the eastern shore from downtown but still is certainly clipping downtown with the band.

Despite what CLE says the winds become very well aligned on Monday and with a shortwave moving through Sunday night even with some shear (although still not a ton) I'd expect lake effect to begin getting going good then. The instability/alignment of the flow and decent moisture say that it may be rip city somewhere Monday evening-Tuesday morning, and it still looks decent on either end of that time frame although not quite top end.

Great forecast. CLe must have been talked off the ledge by surrounding offices. I think this is going to be a great les event for the snow belt. We'll have a much better idea tomorrow looking upstream. Les is almost impossible to forecast... Your forecast seems very reasonable.

[Trent]

Someone posted a WRF map in the other LES thread that showed quite a bullseye for NE Ohio. Ratios will be high so no doubt some folks will have FEET of snow. Pretty much the best type of set up for my neck of the woods as well.

 

Today should rack up quite the positive temp departure and presumably still be in the 40s at midnight. Monday will end up being the first below normal temperature day in about 2 weeks. 

[OHweather]

Great forecast. CLe must have been talked off the ledge by surrounding offices. I think this is going to be a great les event for the snow belt. We'll have a much better idea tomorrow looking upstream. Les is almost impossible to forecast... Your forecast seems very reasonable.

Thanks.

 

BUF was relatively bearish off of Lake Erie...although with a W-WNW flow you get good convergence over northeastern OH, and western NY deals with short fetch issues. 12-24" amounts may seem high to some but if you consider good lake effect will be going on at least Sunday night-Wednesday which is which is 6 forecast periods that is "only" an average of 2-4" per 12 hour period, so these amounts are very doable IMO in the Snowbelt. 0z NAM looks pretty bullish. Hi-res rolling in now.

[Trent]

Also, a latent Sandy related death last night along I-90 and Warren Road in Cleveland. Gusty 30 mph winds knocked over a huge oak tree that struck a car killing the driver. It appears that the tree had been weakened from Sandy a few months ago. I'm surprised CLE didn't issue a PNS for a wind related damage/fatality. 

[OHweather]

Hi res NAM through 12z Tuesday...good blob of .5" QPF over the east-side including downtown and over 0.75" over the Snowbelt. You can use your own imagination for ratios but this is looking pretty good:

 

[OhioBlizzard]

Had some extra time so threw together a snow map. Light blue is 3-6, dark blue 6-10, purple 10-14, and red 14" +.

For some reason it won't let me load my snow map. But heres a link to it. I have the same name over on accuweather forums. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30440&st=20#entry1667096

Still am shocked that CLE doesn't have a watch out for the primary belt. Parameters almost scream moderate if not significant event. Surface winds for event look to hover anywhere from 250-300 for the event with the majority of the event between 270-290. Moisture looks sufficent for most of the event and delta t's extreme at some points. Directional shear also looks to be minal and less than 30 degrees during a vast majority of the event from surface to 700mb level. This should lead to most likely a dominant band throughout most of the event, with at times maybe a few bands. Also along with a long fetch winds out over the lake look to be in the 20-25 knot range which is slow enough to allow nice convergence out over the lake.

Given a direction of 270-290, I believe this will be an almost exclusively primary event. The northern secondary belt will on occusion get in on the southern fringes of the action when the direction shifts towards 290 and a band most likely runs through southern cuyohoga and geagua counties and into northern summit and portage. But for the most part I expect a dominant band to be wavering back and forth from Southern Cuyohoga and Geagua counties to Lake and Northern Asht. counties. That is one of the reasons I haven't given higher totals for southern areas of the primary belt is that the band will most likely not just sit in one area for more than a few hours at a time.

Given that towards the end of the event in the tues. night/ wednesday timeframe the best convergence will begin to work north into northern geagua, lake and northern asht. counties, I believe the main band could linger there for 12-18 hours more then in the southern primary belt and thus why I have those areas at 14"+. I would not be surprised to see some areas in that region where the band lingers to get 18-24"+. If I were CLE, I would issue a warning for Cuyohoga, Lake, Geagua and Ashtubula Counties and an advisory for Northern portage, summit, and trumbull. Wild card for me is lorain, which I believe to be on the borderline of an advisory.

[OhioBlizzard]

For some reason it won't let me upload my snow map. Heres a link to it. I have the same name over on accuweather forums.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30440&st=20#entry1667096

[NEOH]

Someone posted a WRF map in the other LES thread that showed quite a bullseye for NE Ohio. Ratios will be high so no doubt some folks will have FEET of snow. Pretty much the best type of set up for my neck of the woods as well.

 

Today should rack up quite the positive temp departure and presumably still be in the 40s at midnight. Monday will end up being the first below normal temperature day in about 2 weeks. 

OHWeather's forecast looks spot on at this point. CLE mentioned 12-24" totals as well. Good to see snow is already going off of Lake MI.

 

Winds last night were crazy... and still howling now. I'm sure the lakeshore areas have trees down.