Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[FL510]

64 degrees in Chagrin Falls this morning. That's rare for a April morning, unprecedented for mid-January.

[NEOH]

64 degrees in Chagrin Falls this morning. That's rare for a April morning, unprecedented for mid-January.

 

Its down to a frigid 46 IMBY. Typical Spring weather here in CLE  . Birds are chirping, squirrels are playing... really feels like March. Maybe our winters have been reduced to 3 weeks.

[Trent]

Having mid 60s during the overnight hours in January is unreal.

 

It also seems like the rain this weekend has busted hard. Just a few sprinkles overnight here and even the rain on Friday was only able to muster a half inch. 

[Trent]

It's a shame that cold front couldn't have held on a few hours longer for CAK. But the evening climate report sure is a doozy!

 

 

CLIMATE REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH519 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2013......................................THE AKRON CANTON OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 13 2013...VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1887 TO 2013WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                                  NORMAL..................................................................TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY  MAXIMUM         64    244 PM  68    2005  33     31       24  MINIMUM         60    211 AM -13    1912  19     41       15  AVERAGE         62                        26     36       20

[OHweather]

It's a shame that cold front couldn't have held on a few hours longer for CAK. But the evening climate report sure is a doozy!

 

 

CLIMATE REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH519 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2013......................................THE AKRON CANTON OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 13 2013...VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1887 TO 2013WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                                  NORMAL..................................................................TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY  MAXIMUM         64    244 PM  68    2005  33     31       24  MINIMUM         60    211 AM -13    1912  19     41       15  AVERAGE         62                        26     36       20

Wow, looks like 1/13/12 was one of the two below normal days of the 11-12 winter! It's still warm down here in Athens...sitting at like 58 right now. It was down right sticky today with dews in the upper 50's for several hours this afternoon! The front is coming through now so the daily numbers won't be quite as impressive. Nearest official station is PKB and they look like they'll hold off the front till well after midnight there.

[Trent]

Models really overdid the QPF here this weekend. The Friday afternoon through Monday morning rainfall total at CLE was a meager 0.35" after countless runs of 1.5-2". This winter season seems to be busts on all accounts.

 

CLE is actually doing worse with season to date snowfall as of today compared to last year

 

15.5" through Jan 14, 2013

16.6" through Jan 14, 2012

[NEOH]

Models really overdid the QPF here this weekend. The Friday afternoon through Monday morning rainfall total at CLE was a meager 0.35" after countless runs of 1.5-2". This winter season seems to be busts on all accounts.

 

CLE is actually doing worse with season to date snowfall as of today compared to last year

 

15.5" through Jan 14, 2013

16.6" through Jan 14, 2012

I'm glad the rainfall was a bust. Soils are wet enough around here. 

 

This winter is shaping up to be a bust... the one difference from last year has been snowcover. We had a good three + weeks of snowcover which we never had last year.

 

At least we have the phantom arctic outbreak to look forward to... if it does happen, it would do nothing more than ice the lake over. On to February.

[OHweather]

Looks like the initial shot of "arctic" air Wednesday night into Thursday will be pretty run of the mill with a pretty flat western US pattern persisting into the weekend...the air will be plenty cold for lake effect with 850mb temps likely dipping to near -15C Thursday, however, like a lot of arctic airmasses, this looks to be fairly shallow and dry, with the Euro showing the mid-levels drying significantly by Thursday evening:

 

 

This will probably be one of those deals where the arctic front picks up moisture off the lake and dumps a general light amount of snowfall Wednesday night with lake effect developing/persisting through Thursday before beginning to wind down Thursday evening. With a moderate WNW to NW flow aloft the lake effect will probably favor inland locals from eastern Cuyahoga County East through the primary belt, with lesser amounts falling as far west as Lorain County and into portions of Medina/Summit/Portage/Trumbull Counties. This has the look of a marginal advisory criteria event in the heart of the Snowbelt but still a lot of time to fine tune.

 

Despite what some posters in the long range threads may say, we have been looking at a potential arctic blast to end January for quite a while now and there remains strong model agreement bolstered by the MJO propagating eastward and a strongly -AO thanks to a stratospheric vortex split last week in the polar vortex displacing well south. Although I think the solutions that take the actual polar vortex into the Great Lakes are extreme, a cross polar flow is already dumping into Canada and the vortex will likely reach max displacement around Monday, centered at or just to the east of the longitude of northeastern OH, supporting very cold air with 850mb temps of lower than -20C looking quite likely as far south as the Upper Ohio Valley. The models are toying with the idea of a clipper type system bringing a general synoptic snow to the lower lakes/upper OV on the leading edge of this arctic blast on Monday and then develop a W-NW flow that should persist through around the middle of next week with some moisture thanks to the active NW flow on the back side of the trough. This should be a fruitful pattern for northeastern OH with the potential there for a long duration moderately strong lake effect event beginning Monday and potentially persisting until Wednesday of next week. The GFS and Euro are in good agreement on the overall pattern in the 8-10 day period with a large ridge over the western US and Canada and ridging over the North Pole directing very cold air in our direction:

 

 

In the meantime, while you guys track this potential snow, I'll be keeping a close eye on the potential for mood flakes to make it into southeast Ohio early next week.

[Trent]

I'll be cautiously optimistic for next Sunday/Monday but with the past track record, I won't get excited until the set-up is here and bands have formed.

[OHweather]

I'll be cautiously optimistic for next Sunday/Monday but with the past track record, I won't get excited until the set-up is here and bands have formed.

I don't blame you. On a closer inspection I'm probably too bullish for Wednesday night-Thursday. Looking at forecast skew-t's it is really dry in the low levels by Thursday morning when marginally cold air moves in...maybe an inch or two in the Snowbelt...looks a little better in PA for maybe a few local inches.

I think next week will be decent for you guys given the synoptic setup...with a true arctic airmass and an active NW flow with some bouts of moisture and shortwaves rotating through. Too early to tell where exactly the lake effect will setup but early indications are it will be decent for someone. Need to watch things though, if 850mb temps dip below -20C (it will be close) snow growth will be stunted.

On the flip side, models have brought the waves of low pressure farther north for tomorrow and tomorrow night...looks like I'll probably see a period of light mixed precip and at least get a trace on the board in Athens.

[Trent]

Very cool and rare phenomenon with temps the 13/14th, as at the stroke of midnight the temp dropped so that there is a gap in temps between the two days. Theoretically whatever the temperature is at 11:59pm and 59 seconds, that will also be the same temp as 12:00am the next day, unless of course the temperature drops a degree in that second, which is what happened here:

 

 

CXUS51 KCLE 151004CF6CLEPRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)                                          STATION:   CLEVELAND OH                                          MONTH:     JANUARY                                          YEAR:      2013                                          LATITUDE:   41 24 N                                          LONGITUDE:  81 51 W  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  32  20  26  -3  39   0    T    T    7  7.9 17  10   M    M  10 1      20  10 2  21  11  16 -12  49   0 0.00  0.0    6  6.6 13 240   M    M   8 8      16 250 3  28   6  17 -11  48   0    T    T    5 11.7 22 240   M    M   7        26 240 4  28  24  26  -2  39   0    T    T    5 17.9 32 240   M    M   4 8      39 220 5  35  22  29   1  36   0 0.00  0.0    3  9.7 15 200   M    M   8        21 210 6  36  31  34   6  31   0    T    T    3 11.9 20 270   M    M  10 1      25 270 7  35  30  33   5  32   0    T    T    2  9.7 18 180   M    M   6 18     25 170 8  41  28  35   7  30   0 0.00  0.0    1  8.5 15 210   M    M   7        18 200 9  45  31  38  10  27   0 0.02  0.0    1 12.3 26 240   M    M   5        33 24010  42  26  34   6  31   0    T  0.0    T  5.6 14 140   M    M   8 1      18 15011  58  42  50  22  15   0 0.56  0.0    0 12.1 23 210   M    M   9 1      31 17012  61  49  55  27  10   0    T  0.0    0  9.2 17 200   M    M   7        23 20013  64  37  51  23  14   0 0.35  0.0    0 10.5 28 300   M    M   9 1      35 32014  36  27  32   4  33   0    T  0.0    0  8.1 21 280   M    M  10        28 270================================================================================SM  562  384       434   0  0.93    T    141.7          M      108================================================================================AV 40.1 27.4                              10.1 FASTST   M    M   8    MAX(MPH)                                 MISC ---->  # 32 240               # 39  220================================================================================

[NEOH]

The pattern early next week looks pretty favorable for LES. Hopefully the ice cover can hold off until then... it will be close.

 

As Trent said, I'll feel alot more confident once the bands have formed. Dry arctic air rarely produces so we'll see.

[OHweather]

I think the lake should remain open. If we see winds die down enough Monday and Tuesday nights though the western basin will certainly ice over quickly.

The GFS and Euro both hold decent low to mid level RH's back into the lakes through at least Tuesday with 850's aob -20C. I'm still thinking this has the makings of a pretty decent event in the Snowbelt. One caveat though is if 850mb t's get much colder than -20C then snow growth will not be great and amounts would be limited somewhat. Still a lot of time to watch though.

[NEOH]

I think the lake should remain open. If we see winds die down enough Monday and Tuesday nights though the western basin will certainly ice over quickly.

The GFS and Euro both hold decent low to mid level RH's back into the lakes through at least Tuesday with 850's aob -20C. I'm still thinking this has the makings of a pretty decent event in the Snowbelt. One caveat though is if 850mb t's get much colder than -20C then snow growth will not be great and amounts would be limited somewhat. Still a lot of time to watch though.

 

It's definitely going to be a race between rapid ice cover and a good LES set-up. Multiple short waves will be rotating through as it looks right now so winds will be shifting... good for a spread the wealth type event, but not for significant accums. After watching the models a week ago... I was fully expecting to be in the midst of arctic air this week. Hopefully this time next week the pattern actually verifies.

[Trent]

The past two days have made it obvious the effect snow cover has on temps. We just haven't been able to cool at night.

It will be nice to see snow falling again after a 3 week hiatus. I'm sure it will be a lot of fluff with an inch or three every other day or so. These generally aren't good for building a snow pack, but keep things wintry.

It's still disappointing to not have a real storm to track or even a threat. It's been an incredibly boring January.

[OhioBlizzard]

We might squeak out the first two weeks of January without measurable snow, that's only happened twice at CLE before.

Come Monday we'll actually be running behind last year in terms of snowfall. Ouch!

 

Yep this year is worse snowfall wise than last year for me also. Didnt think it was possible!

 

Looks like the initial shot of "arctic" air Wednesday night into Thursday will be pretty run of the mill with a pretty flat western US pattern persisting into the weekend...the air will be plenty cold for lake effect with 850mb temps likely dipping to near -15C Thursday, however, like a lot of arctic airmasses, this looks to be fairly shallow and dry, with the Euro showing the mid-levels drying significantly by Thursday evening:

 

ECM 96.gif

 

This will probably be one of those deals where the arctic front picks up moisture off the lake and dumps a general light amount of snowfall Wednesday night with lake effect developing/persisting through Thursday before beginning to wind down Thursday evening. With a moderate WNW to NW flow aloft the lake effect will probably favor inland locals from eastern Cuyahoga County East through the primary belt, with lesser amounts falling as far west as Lorain County and into portions of Medina/Summit/Portage/Trumbull Counties. This has the look of a marginal advisory criteria event in the heart of the Snowbelt but still a lot of time to fine tune.

 

Despite what some posters in the long range threads may say, we have been looking at a potential arctic blast to end January for quite a while now and there remains strong model agreement bolstered by the MJO propagating eastward and a strongly -AO thanks to a stratospheric vortex split last week in the polar vortex displacing well south. Although I think the solutions that take the actual polar vortex into the Great Lakes are extreme, a cross polar flow is already dumping into Canada and the vortex will likely reach max displacement around Monday, centered at or just to the east of the longitude of northeastern OH, supporting very cold air with 850mb temps of lower than -20C looking quite likely as far south as the Upper Ohio Valley. The models are toying with the idea of a clipper type system bringing a general synoptic snow to the lower lakes/upper OV on the leading edge of this arctic blast on Monday and then develop a W-NW flow that should persist through around the middle of next week with some moisture thanks to the active NW flow on the back side of the trough. This should be a fruitful pattern for northeastern OH with the potential there for a long duration moderately strong lake effect event beginning Monday and potentially persisting until Wednesday of next week. The GFS and Euro are in good agreement on the overall pattern in the 8-10 day period with a large ridge over the western US and Canada and ridging over the North Pole directing very cold air in our direction:

 

8-10.gif

 

In the meantime, while you guys track this potential snow, I'll be keeping a close eye on the potential for mood flakes to make it into southeast Ohio early next week.

There definately will be lake effect, but the dry air is a huge concern for me. Hope we can at least get a moderate event out of this.

[OhioBlizzard]

The pattern early next week looks pretty favorable for LES. Hopefully the ice cover can hold off until then... it will be close.

 

As Trent said, I'll feel alot more confident once the bands have formed. Dry arctic air rarely produces so we'll see.

 

Thats what i am concerned about. Could be a limiting factor.

 

It's definitely going to be a race between rapid ice cover and a good LES set-up. Multiple short waves will be rotating through as it looks right now so winds will be shifting... good for a spread the wealth type event, but not for significant accums. After watching the models a week ago... I was fully expecting to be in the midst of arctic air this week. Hopefully this time next week the pattern actually verifies.

 

The lack of snowcover throughout the MW and GL really hurt us this past week. Cold air just had a hard time getting here and when it finally did it had nothing to sustain it.

 

The past two days have made it obvious the effect snow cover has on temps. We just haven't been able to cool at night.

It will be nice to see snow falling again after a 3 week hiatus. I'm sure it will be a lot of fluff with an inch or three every other day or so. These generally aren't good for building a snow pack, but keep things wintry.

It's still disappointing to not have a real storm to track or even a threat. It's been an incredibly boring January.

 

Yes, indeed. The lack of snow cover here and across the northern U.S. has had a huge effect. Its amazing the difference between having a good snowpack and none at all. Night and day difference.

[NEOH]

12z euro looks pretty good this coming Sunday-Wednesday. 850's start to dip below -20 though... which isn't great for LES, but the machine would be going with decent moisture around.

[Trent]

I'd also be concerned how quickly the western basin freezes over. Come mid next week everything west of the Erie Islands will be iced over and that will expand daily eastward.

[NEOH]

Woke up at 5am with calm winds and the temp was 34. I wonder if we will even see as much as a snow shower after the frontal passage. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come when the arctic front hits over the weekend. CLE seems rather bullish for LES, while BUF is not all that excited. I'd lean heavily on BUF's forecast.

[Trent]

I won't pull out the CLE top ten least snowiest Januarys list yet, but with nothing on the board thus far and CLE's unfavorable location for LES, it might be needed soon.

There's about a 10% chance CLE salvages a normal winter for snow. We need 53" more this season and the number of past seasons that have had that much from this point on is less than 5. At this point I'd be happy for 18" below normal.

[NEOH]

I won't pull out the CLE top ten least snowiest Januarys list yet, but with nothing on the board thus far and CLE's unfavorable location for LES, it might be needed soon.

There's about a 10% chance CLE salvages a normal winter for snow. We need 53" more this season and the number of past seasons that have had that much from this point on is less than 5. At this point I'd be happy for 18" below normal.

 

Go ahead, just pull the list out so we can all laugh at this miserable January. I'll give it a 1% chance of hitting normal IMBY. 85" is a loooong way away. I'm ready to flush the toilet on this winter.

[OhioBlizzard]

12z euro looks pretty good this coming Sunday-Wednesday. 850's start to dip below -20 though... which isn't great for LES, but the machine would be going with decent moisture around.

 

I'm just not sure we will have decent moisture around. I could see this being a bust. Don't get me wrong there will be LES, but I don't think its going to be anything near a big event.

 

Woke up at 5am with calm winds and the temp was 34. I wonder if we will even see as much as a snow shower after the frontal passage. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come when the arctic front hits over the weekend. CLE seems rather bullish for LES, while BUF is not all that excited. I'd lean heavily on BUF's forecast.

 

Yea I'd side with BUF. They are the most respected office in the GL for LES imo.

[OhioBlizzard]

Heres the latest gfs event total for all the lake effect/clipper snow before what looks like may be a short day or two long warm up towards the end of next week. Posting it just to give a very general idea of qpf for the event. Flow for this LES event looks to be mainly WNW. Given that ratios will be very high on the order of 20:1 to up to 30:1 in some cases, this could equate out to a general 3-6"+ for the primary and 2ndary belts with asht. county seeing more on the order of 6-12" based on this model. But we are a ways out yet.

 

 

[iMAGE REMOVED]

[OhioBlizzard]

euro btw is actually a lot more generous in what would equate to more widespread 6-12" amounts with asht. county looking at a foot plus.

[NEOH]

Mid-Winter update just sent out from CLE. Serioulsy, I didn't write this.  

 

Winter 2012-‘13 (so far). November was chilly with temperatures averaging 2-3 degrees below normal, but there was hardly any snow. December was quite warm for the first 20 days. It took until Christmas week to get winter going. The snow the day after Christmas fell short of being a real blizzard but at least we were getting some real winter weather. Then we had the thaw last week.

 

What is to come? It still seems as though winter is on track. The current weather pattern favors a northwest flow and trough aloft over the Great Lakes. In fact, it appears as though there will be an arctic outbreak early next week. In order to develop persistent cold air we will need to rebuild the snow pack. Lake Erie has little ice on it and it will take a while (if at all) to develop an extensive ice cover so the lake effect snow machine will be available. Also, keep in mind that the recent snow melt and rain has saturated the ground. Let us know immediately if you see flooding. Thanks.

[NEOH]

CLE dangling the mega-band carrot. Certainly not unreasonable given the wind direction which looks to be 270 - 290... which is as good as it gets for a primary band. This brings the entire western basin into play... about 90 miles of open water from CLE to far western shore. 280-290 flow would be ideal for cuyahoga county. Anything less and the band would head up the lakeshore to lake county.

 

IF THE INSTABILITY IS STRONG ENOUGH AND FETCH REACHES THE LONGEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE WATER...MEANING WEST TO EAST FLOW...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MEGA BAND THAT COULD DEVELOP.  THE BAND COULD EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND WATCH AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SHEAR DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THIS COULD BE APPROXIMATELY A 36 HOUR PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

 

 

[Trent]

While I'd love for a mega band (re: dec 8, 2010) getting hung up on a 280 degree flow 5 days away is a bit premature. The difference between 260 and 290 is huge here. I won't jump on a bandwagon now.

[OHweather]

Yeah, too early to get into specifics. Certainly looks like a W-NW flow is in the cards and it shouldn't be too strong aside from Sunday, so Trent may be in play and this may be more of a true primary Snowbelt storm...however, a bit early to get into specifics.

 

Initially on Sunday behind the initial arctic push it looks fairly dry so I'm not sure how much lake effect will get going until another shortwave comes through Sunday night into Monday...behind that one it isn't expected to be quite as dry and lake induced instability climbs into the extreme category so I'd expect bands to setup somewhere on Monday. Don't want to get into specifics after that but lake effect should keep going into Wednesday.

[Trent]

OK Here it is! Top 10 least snowiest Januarys for Cleveland:

 

 

JANUARY                            1.   0.5  1932      2.   1.3  1919      3.   2.0  1967      4.   2.8  1960      5.   3.1  1916      6.   3.1  1898      7.   3.2  1933      8.   3.7  1950      9.   3.8  1931    10.  3.9  1934

 

We sit at a Trace on January 17th. The big wildcard will be lake effect. If the flow as modeled right now for next week holds, that would keep the airport out of the LES. Could be one of those cases where virtually 90% of the region gets decent snow, but the airport and official measurements show otherwise.