Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[NEOH]

Funny that any time warmth is modeled out in fantasy land it always seem to verify. Yet cold and snow rarely come to pass. Enjoy your cold and snow the next few days. Long range GFS looks frigid  .

[OHweather]

It was looking like the Snowbelt might miracle its way to 2-4" of snow tomorrow afternoon-night, but right now moisture looks like it may be a bit more lacking than originally thought...I'll hedge my expectations towards a light 1-2" snowfall in the belt and less than an inch elsewhere tomorrow afternoon-evening.

[OhioBlizzard]

hey thanks for the snowdepths everyone. currently -1 imby. colder than all of last year. never even got below zero last year which is uncommon.

[NEOH]

Looks like we are still on track for the warm-up/torch next Tuesday - Saturday/Sunday. Doubtful we will be able to keep any snowcover should the euro temps verify. We've had a good two weeks of winter. Just maybe we can fire up the LES machine once the pattern flips.

[OHweather]

A fair amount of blowing/drifting snow in open areas today...I think I saw more blowing today than during the boxing day storm.

 

Next week will be warm and potentially fairly rainy starting Wednesday or Thursday, however as I posted in the medium range thread a couple days ago I'm fairly confident we will get cold again at some point during the third week of January...of course by then I will be residing in the Hocking Valley and will be looking for some supression and lows tracking through KY or riding up the eastern side of the Apps as opposed to an open arctic flood gate/LES...either way winter should be far from over.

 

Looks like we'll see one last little "refresher snow" Saturday night-Sunday with a little lingering lake effect Sunday evening...looks meager outside of the Snowbelt (less than an inch) and fairly light in the Snowbelt (maybe locally 3-4" over the coarse of 24-30 hours) but it will be nice to see one last little snow out of this pattern before we warm up.

[NEOH]

A fair amount of blowing/drifting snow in open areas today...I think I saw more blowing today than during the boxing day storm.

 

Next week will be warm and potentially fairly rainy starting Wednesday or Thursday, however as I posted in the medium range thread a couple days ago I'm fairly confident we will get cold again at some point during the third week of January...of course by then I will be residing in the Hocking Valley and will be looking for some supression and lows tracking through KY or riding up the eastern side of the Apps as opposed to an open arctic flood gate/LES...either way winter should be far from over.

 

Looks like we'll see one last little "refresher snow" Saturday night-Sunday with a little lingering lake effect Sunday evening...looks meager outside of the Snowbelt (less than an inch) and fairly light in the Snowbelt (maybe locally 3-4" over the coarse of 24-30 hours) but it will be nice to see one last little snow out of this pattern before we warm up.

 

Yep... one last snow fix. Maybe we can salvage some piles  .

 

Enjoy OU. You'll be up to your ears in skirts down there instead of snow.. if that's your thing of course.

[OHweather]

Yep... one last snow fix. Maybe we can salvage some piles  .

 

Enjoy OU. You'll be up to your ears in skirts down there instead of snow.. if that's your thing of course.

 

Thanks. And I've heard

 

Don't worry though, if southeastern Ohio sees the big one and you guys get fringed at best, I'll make sure to report my snow totals in this here thread.

[Trent]

No sign of shore ice along Lake Erie at Cleveland yet. I thought perhaps with the below freezing highs and lows in the lower teens the past week or so we'd at least see a couple yards of ice form along the beaches, but none so far.

 

It's been a good stretch of winter the past two weeks here. It did seem that a lot of the "blizzard" snow melted from the ground up. It's easy to see the different layers of snow and that storm has compacted to a few inches of frozen slush with settled fluff on top. 

[NEOH]

No sign of shore ice along Lake Erie at Cleveland yet. I thought perhaps with the below freezing highs and lows in the lower teens the past week or so we'd at least see a couple yards of ice form along the beaches, but none so far.

 

It's been a good stretch of winter the past two weeks here. It did seem that a lot of the "blizzard" snow melted from the ground up. It's easy to see the different layers of snow and that storm has compacted to a few inches of frozen slush with settled fluff on top. 

 

Suprised there is no ice near shore. Good to hear. The thin ice in the western basin will take a beating this week. Should be nothing but open water by the weekend. If we are going to sacrifice snow cover for open water... let's hope we can actually squeeze out a LES event before it freezes back up.

[Trent]

The snow on the ground is primed to melt. The past couple marginally freezing overnight temps have warmed the snow. I expect bare ground by Thursday and perhaps Saturday for higher elevations.

Lake Erie will be ice free shortly too. Hopefully we can connect. LES has been lackluster the past two years.

[Trent]

I can't help but wonder if the last 10 days of December will end up being the "best" part of winter 2012/2013.

 

Snow is looking very thin around these parts. I see CLE is reporting just 1 inch as a snow depth this evening.

[OHweather]

Still a good 5" out here on the ground...it was at one point almost a foot deep around New Years. I'm optimistic for late Jan (maybe some good Lake Effect and some chance at something synoptic) but the last 10 days of December were certainly decent.

[NEOH]

Still a good 5" out here on the ground...it was at one point almost a foot deep around New Years. I'm optimistic for late Jan (maybe some good Lake Effect and some chance at something synoptic) but the last 10 days of December were certainly decent.

 

I still have about 4-5" inches as well. Its pretty solid at this point. I'll give it until Friday before it's completely gone.

 

Hopefully our snowy stretch in December won't be it for the winter. Timing of the cold front seems to be getting pushed back.

[Trent]

I still have about 4-5" inches as well. Its pretty solid at this point. I'll give it until Friday before it's completely gone.

 

Hopefully our snowy stretch in December won't be it for the winter. Timing of the cold front seems to be getting pushed back.

 

It's hit or miss for snow depth at this point of the melting stage. It's generally high dewpoints that melt the snow though. If you have a sunny day that's 43 with a dewpoint of 18 you're not going to melt as much as a cloudy day with a temp of 39 and a dewpoint of 39.

 

We should really rack up the snow deficits over the next week. Yesterday marked 1/3 of the accumulating snow season, so we've still got 2/3 of the snow season yet to go. 

[OHweather]

Weird to look at the long range GFS and have to shift my focus a couple hundred miles south...I'm gonna miss Lake Effect real soon I think. Down to around 3.5" of snow pack here, it is a dense snow pack with a nice layer of ice on top thanks to temps falling just below freezing tonight.

[OhioBlizzard]

Funny that any time warmth is modeled out in fantasy land it always seem to verify. Yet cold and snow rarely come to pass. Enjoy your cold and snow the next few days. Long range GFS looks frigid  .

+1

 

 

I can't help but wonder if the last 10 days of December will end up being the "best" part of winter 2012/2013.

 

Snow is looking very thin around these parts. I see CLE is reporting just 1 inch as a snow depth this evening.

yea thats what i'm worried about. Models keep pushing back return to colder weather. if we cant get anything in the next week or two were staring down february already

[OhioBlizzard]

still about 2.5-3" on the ground. Should make it through today but might have bare ground by tommorow evening

[NEOH]

It's hit or miss for snow depth at this point of the melting stage. It's generally high dewpoints that melt the snow though. If you have a sunny day that's 43 with a dewpoint of 18 you're not going to melt as much as a cloudy day with a temp of 39 and a dewpoint of 39.

 

We should really rack up the snow deficits over the next week. Yesterday marked 1/3 of the accumulating snow season, so we've still got 2/3 of the snow season yet to go. 

 

Good point about the dewpoint and snow melt. It was sunny and in the low 40's yesterday with very little melting.

 

Hard to believe we are heading toward mid-January. Long range doesn't really look all that promising on the models at least... but that can certainly change. Reading some of the long range thoughts from the mets on here, it's probably fair to say there is going to be alot of model mayhem with the pattern changing.

 

I'm just hoping for one decent LES event this year. I think we've had snow on the ground longer than any point last Winter.

[OHweather]

Good point about the dewpoint and snow melt. It was sunny and in the low 40's yesterday with very little melting.

 

Hard to believe we are heading toward mid-January. Long range doesn't really look all that promising on the models at least... but that can certainly change. Reading some of the long range thoughts from the mets on here, it's probably fair to say there is going to be alot of model mayhem with the pattern changing.

 

I'm just hoping for one decent LES event this year. I think we've had snow on the ground longer than any point last Winter.

 

By my count we are going on 20 days of snowcover out here (will probably hit like 22, maybe 23 if we are lucky). I think last year the longest we had was like 5, but I may be mistaken. It seemed like whenever it snowed we would hit 50 a few days later and torch it all away.

[NEOH]

CLE hinting at some potential next week...

 

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR BY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY TO OUR SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL NOT VARY MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT COULD OCCUR...AND JUST ABOUT ANY FORM IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR
TENDS TO BE SHALLOW IN THESE SYSTEMS. WILL JUST TALK ABOUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR SIMPLICITY FOR NOW.

ULTIMATELY WE MAY FIND THE AREA IN A LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF POSSIBILITIES AND IMPLICATIONS.

 

[Trent]

By my count we are going on 20 days of snowcover out here (will probably hit like 22, maybe 23 if we are lucky). I think last year the longest we had was like 5, but I may be mistaken. It seemed like whenever it snowed we would hit 50 a few days later and torch it all away.

Good luck adding a few days of snow cover. It's toast here except for shade and drifted piles. After today CLE should be running at normal tempwise for January with the torch tacking on a degree everyday.

[OHweather]

Good luck adding a few days of snow cover. It's toast here except for shade and drifted piles. After today CLE should be running at normal tempwise for January with the torch tacking on a degree everyday.

 

Here areas that are facing south and are exposed are beginning to see some major holes in the snowcover. However, I would say we are still 80% covered with an average depth of 2". North facing areas or well shaded areas do still have a few inches...the deck on the north side of my house still has almost 6", confirming that the ground is warm and that we've been melting from the ground up since the snow first fell before Christmas. Should see green expand some more tomorrow and we should officially loose snow cover on Friday. The heart of the Snowbelt may take a day longer but highs in the upper 50's Saturday should do the trick, even there.

 

Anywho, since I'll still be putting forecasts on a northeast Ohio focused website while in Athens, I still get to monitor the weather up here while I live in the snowless land of southern Ohio.

 

There is pretty good agreement (and has been) in a polar vortex displacing to over Hudson Bay by Wednesday thanks to Alaskan Ridging, Greenland ridging and a fairly strong -AO. It will be pretty active in the mean time...but p-type will most certainly be rain through Sunday over northern Ohio...there will be a couple shots of potential thunder as we will reside on the northern edge of a modestly moist/unstable airmass...first on Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday...the Saturday night into Sunday time period potential has some heavy rain potential with pwats potentially reaching 1.5" (!!) and the Euro and GFS both showing at least a 50kt 850mb jet into central or northern Ohio. The 0z GFS focuses the heaviest precip closer towards Toledo while the 12z Euro focused things closer to Cleveland.

 

The baroclinic zone should ooze south of much of northern Ohio on Monday...the shallow nature of the arctic air should push the front farther south than 500mb heights would suggest...and may allow for some sort of an icing potential instead of a straight change from rain to snow. It looks like another wave will ride by Sunday night into Monday with the potential for light wintry precip over northern Ohio...rain for me in Athens...and another wave will ride by on Tuesday...this one may whiten the ground for me in the Hocking Valley as the front should be a bit farther south for that wave.

 

 

The pattern Wednesday through the weekend may put down a fair amount of snow across northern Ohio...the polar vortex will push far enough south to allow arctic air into the Great Lakes and down into at least the upper Ohio Valley...with the European and GFS ensembles (12z) all showing air cold enough for lake effect snow Thursday with another re-enforcing shot possible over the weekend.

[NEOH]

Here areas that are facing south and are exposed are beginning to see some major holes in the snowcover. However, I would say we are still 80% covered with an average depth of 2". North facing areas or well shaded areas do still have a few inches...the deck on the north side of my house still has almost 6", confirming that the ground is warm and that we've been melting from the ground up since the snow first fell before Christmas. Should see green expand some more tomorrow and we should officially loose snow cover on Friday. The heart of the Snowbelt may take a day longer but highs in the upper 50's Saturday should do the trick, even there.

 

Anywho, since I'll still be putting forecasts on a northeast Ohio focused website while in Athens, I still get to monitor the weather up here while I live in the snowless land of southern Ohio.

 

There is pretty good agreement (and has been) in a polar vortex displacing to over Hudson Bay by Wednesday thanks to Alaskan Ridging, Greenland ridging and a fairly strong -AO. It will be pretty active in the mean time...but p-type will most certainly be rain through Sunday over northern Ohio...there will be a couple shots of potential thunder as we will reside on the northern edge of a modestly moist/unstable airmass...first on Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday...the Saturday night into Sunday time period potential has some heavy rain potential with pwats potentially reaching 1.5" (!!) and the Euro and GFS both showing at least a 50kt 850mb jet into central or northern Ohio. The 0z GFS focuses the heaviest precip closer towards Toledo while the 12z Euro focused things closer to Cleveland.

 

The baroclinic zone should ooze south of much of northern Ohio on Monday...the shallow nature of the arctic air should push the front farther south than 500mb heights would suggest...and may allow for some sort of an icing potential instead of a straight change from rain to snow. It looks like another wave will ride by Sunday night into Monday with the potential for light wintry precip over northern Ohio...rain for me in Athens...and another wave will ride by on Tuesday...this one may whiten the ground for me in the Hocking Valley as the front should be a bit farther south for that wave.

 

The pattern Wednesday through the weekend may put down a fair amount of snow across northern Ohio...the polar vortex will push far enough south to allow arctic air into the Great Lakes and down into at least the upper Ohio Valley...with the European and GFS ensembles (12z) all showing air cold enough for lake effect snow Thursday with another re-enforcing shot possible over the weekend.

 

Wasn't expecting it to get so cold last night. It really firmed up what's left of the snowpack. Should last until Saturday before just piles are around. There are patches of green in the normal drift areas... but mostly 2-4 inches remains.

 

Next week looks interesting. Not sure what the lake response will be with dry arctic air. My main concern outside of the dry air is the wind direction. Could be looking at a WSW flow... we would bask in cold sunshine while WNY gets buried. Still a long ways out though.

[OHweather]

Wasn't expecting it to get so cold last night. It really firmed up what's left of the snowpack. Should last until Saturday before just piles are around. There are patches of green in the normal drift areas... but mostly 2-4 inches remains.

 

Next week looks interesting. Not sure what the lake response will be with dry arctic air. My main concern outside of the dry air is the wind direction. Could be looking at a WSW flow... we would bask in cold sunshine while WNY gets buried. Still a long ways out though.

 

On the brightside, it looks like Snowbelt areas will make it through a good stretch of this above normal weather before killing the snowpack.

 

The Euro/GFS/Canadian are all showing some periodic shots of moisture with a few small shortwaves late next week and into next weekend...that should do a good job of quickly building a snowpack again, even if it's only a couple inches at a time.

 

The WSW flow may be a problem initially on Thursday although after that I would expect things to get into the northern Ohio Snowbelt to some extent.

[OHweather]

After skating through last winter with no record highs being set, last March, May and July certainly made up for that. We have the potential to see more record heat on Saturday.

 

Site--Record (year)--NWS Forecast:

 

CLE--65 (1916)--62

CAK--64 (1916)--63

MFD--61 (2005)--61

TOL--64 (1898)--60

YNG--64 (1898)--64

ERI--68 (1890)--60

 

Some sun should do the trick...if clouds and showers persist most sights would probably fall just shy of records.

[Trent]

The generic Cleveland point forecast is for 67!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cleveland&state=OH&site=CLE&lat=41.4797&lon=-81.6785

[NEOH]

Looks like CLE backed temps down a little bit... 58 for the high tomorrow. Good bye snow cover... just patches and piles this morning.

[Trent]

We might squeak out the first two weeks of January without measurable snow, that's only happened twice at CLE before.

Come Monday we'll actually be running behind last year in terms of snowfall. Ouch!

[OHweather]

We've offically lost snow cover here as of this morning, ending the streak at 22 days. Wooded areas are still decently covered but overall there is more bare ground than snow.

 

Lots of ponding water and streams/creeks are running near bankfull. The larger rivers should be able to handle the load from this rain but will rise a good amount, with more widespread flooding possible if we do end up seeing a widespread 1-2" of rain tomorrow night into Sunday.

 

I posted in the long range thread that it looks like we'll see 3 arctic shots of air...one the end of next week which should be brief and only seasonably cold as opposed to severely cold...another one towards the end of next weekend (21st or 22nd) that may be a bit harsher...and another one around the 26th. I put my eggs in the one around the 26th bringing the most prolonged and severe cold...although the models so far today have been putting more emphasis on the second shot being colder.

Either way each arctic shot will be accompanied by a clipper with some lake response so the second half of January should see at least average snowfall across northern Ohio...it will be interesting to see if the cold can catch the back end of the moisture Sunday night/Monday and produce a light amount of measurable snowfall at CLE...it will be close.

CLE averages 18.1" of snowfall for January...and even if we see average snowfall the second half of the month we'll probably fall well short of that...so after a below normal November snowfall wise, slightly above normal December, likely decently below normal January, it will take a rocking Feb-March to bring above average snowfall for CLE. While certainly possible, it doesn't help that a couple of arctic blasts would do a lot to generate ice on the lake.

[NEOH]

We've offically lost snow cover here as of this morning, ending the streak at 22 days. Wooded areas are still decently covered but overall there is more bare ground than snow.

 

Lots of ponding water and streams/creeks are running near bankfull. The larger rivers should be able to handle the load from this rain but will rise a good amount, with more widespread flooding possible if we do end up seeing a widespread 1-2" of rain tomorrow night into Sunday.

 

I posted in the long range thread that it looks like we'll see 3 arctic shots of air...one the end of next week which should be brief and only seasonably cold as opposed to severely cold...another one towards the end of next weekend (21st or 22nd) that may be a bit harsher...and another one around the 26th. I put my eggs in the one around the 26th bringing the most prolonged and severe cold...although the models so far today have been putting more emphasis on the second shot being colder.

Either way each arctic shot will be accompanied by a clipper with some lake response so the second half of January should see at least average snowfall across northern Ohio...it will be interesting to see if the cold can catch the back end of the moisture Sunday night/Monday and produce a light amount of measurable snowfall at CLE...it will be close.

CLE averages 18.1" of snowfall for January...and even if we see average snowfall the second half of the month we'll probably fall well short of that...so after a below normal November snowfall wise, slightly above normal December, likely decently below normal January, it will take a rocking Feb-March to bring above average snowfall for CLE. While certainly possible, it doesn't help that a couple of arctic blasts would do a lot to generate ice on the lake.

 

I was in Chesterland earlier today. Still a decent amount of snow there but quickly melting with the warm temps and rain.

 

We should start to have idea on what is going to happen next week with the weekend model runs. One thing I don't like is the transient nature of each cold shot... which seem to be getting pushed back. There wouldn't really be sufficient time for a half way decent lake effect event. Besides, arctic air LES events typically bust on the low side. The lake is close to freezing, especially out west. It's pretty unique to have a wide open lake in mid to late January... it would be shame to waste the potential without cashing in once.